RealGM

For JUST this next upcoming season with No roster who gives you the best odds to win a championship

Luka seems like the easy answer here, dude should be coming into his prime here, while the other dudes aside from Embiid are old as hell and we don’t know what to expect from them. Embiid is too injury prone and declines too much in the postseason to chance him over Luka.

No-more-rings wrote:Luka seems like the easy answer here, dude should be coming into his prime here, while the other dudes aside from Embiid are old as hell and we don’t know what to expect from them. Embiid is too injury prone and declines too much in the postseason to chance him over Luka.

Ya this is easily Luka if I am choosing one. Steph probably second.

I am going Luka, just like how I feel he should have been the pick this season prior. He then got injury in January and when he came back, he and Kyrie didn't have much time to learn how to fit together.

Luka before Kyrie came (47 Games Played)

34.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 3.3%)

Offensive Load-63.4, Box-Creation-17.1, PlayVal-2.3, Overall Time of Possession Percentage-45%

RAPTOR-9.4 (O-RAPTOR of 9.8 is tied for #1 in the league). Overall #2 in the league.

EPM-7.7 (7.6 O-EPM is #3 in the league just behind Lillard at 8.0 and Jokic who had a 7.7). Overall #2 in the league.

ESPN RPM-8.38 (7.3 ORPM is #2 behind Lillard at 7.82). Overall #2 in the league.

BPM-10.4 (8.3 OBPM is #2 behind Jokic at 8.7). Overall 2nd in the league.

SPI (As of 02/03/2023)-4.3 (5.2 O-SPI is #2 behind Jokic who has a 5.3). Overall, tied for 4th in the league.

LEBRON-5.35 (5.76 O-LEBRON is #1 in league). Overall #2.

Backpicks BPM-7.4 (4.8 OBPM is #2 in league to Jokic at 6.0). Overall #2.

AuPM/G-4.7 (Overall tied #2 in league)

He was #1 in the ENTIRE LEAGUE in Intraocular APM as of Jan. 15 https://www.intraocular.net/posts/aug-apm-nba-2023

He and Jokic had generally oscillated between 1 and 2 as the best offensive players in the league per these metrics. Lillard had gotten closer, with a recent stretch of performances, although, I don't know if you have expected his offensive numbers to stay as high as they were since Lillard was in the mist of a hot streak.

What this does say is that Luka generally rated higher than anyone in this poll in terms of individual value add-on the Mavs. Now yes, the Mavs perhaps weren't as good as Philly, and it is easier to add value on weaker teams when you have the ball more than anyone in the league.


However, the fact of the matter is Luka showed he could have special impact with the impact giants while leading a quality team that would be in the thick of the PS, and #2 I would argue he has a tendency/resiliency to up his game in the PS more than anyone you would expect to be able to do on this list at this point in time. At least, this is what the recent history shows. So even if we should not expect Luka's impact metrics to pop as much in the RS next year, alongside Kyrie, we should still expect him to be a hard guy to game plan against.


Luka's last 3 PS

BPM-9.7

20 Backpicks BPM-7
21 Backpicks BPM-7
22 Backpicks BPM-7.5


3-year Minute-Weighted RAPTOR-8.59


For comparison sakes,

Steph's last 3 PS

BPM-6.4

19 Backpicks BPM-5.9
22 Backpicks BPM-6.3
23 Backpicks BPM-3.1

3-year Minute-Weighted RAPTOR-7.26

Embiid's last 3 PS

BPM-3.1

21 Backpicks BPM-4.3
22 Backpicks BPM-1.8
23 Backpicks BPM-2.1

3-year Minute-Weighted RAPTOR-6.95

KD's last 3 PS

BPM-5.7

21 Backpicks BPM-6.7
22 Backpicks BPM-1.8
23 Backpicks BPM-3.7

3-year Minute-Weighted RAPTOR-1.25

Luka comes out looking better in every number metric listed here. Keep in mind we didn't even get to see 2023 Luka (the best version of Luka) in the PS, so the gap Luka has in these metrics might really be understated. Luka has quite arguably been better his last few PS the biggest contenders here, and he is the youngest here as well, who perhaps can grow most easily from the players listed here.

I am really shocked that Embiid doesn't have a single vote. It must be because of his injury history.