How valuable was Kevin Garnetts passing/playmaking?
Posted: Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:41 am
by WestGOAT
I see that KG is starting to get some mentions in the top 100 project and his playing-making / passing always seem highly rated.
However O_6 outlined in the previous project why this might actually be overrated:
Has anyone ever quantitively tracked this using game footage? Would be very curious to see more and different type of evidence on how much "rim-pressure" Garnett created with his playmaking.
Also for those subscribed to Thinking Basketball, how well KG does "passer rating" compare to other PFs like Nowitzki and Malone?
However O_6 outlined in the previous project why this might actually be overrated:
Spoiler:
O_6 wrote:Kevin Garnett: Concerns about Offensive style
I just wanted to expand a little bit on my view that Minnesota's offense in the KG years was very uniquely constructed and based almost completely around his one of a kind skill-set as a high post hub, however this flawed build and playstyle was only capable of functioning with KG out on the floor. Thus, his ORAPM and similar metrics overrate his true offensive ability because he anchored a functionally flawed offense that relied completely on him and had a limited ceiling.
Timberwolves' Shot Frequency: % of FGA at Shot Location
Season ----- At Rim ------- 3pt ------- At Rim + 3pt
1998 --------- 23rd --------- 24th --------- 25th (out of 29)
1999 --------- 27th --------- 29th --------- 29th
2000 --------- 28th --------- 28th --------- 29th
2001 --------- 26th --------- 27th --------- 28th
2002 --------- 28th --------- 22nd --------- 27th
2003 --------- 26th --------- 28th --------- 28th
2004 --------- 29th --------- 27th --------- 29th
2005 --------- 30th --------- 21st --------- 30th (out of 30)
2006 --------- 21st --------- 26th --------- 29th
2007 --------- 29th --------- 25th --------- 29th
This Timberwolves offense was consistently awful when it came to attacking the optimal scoring areas on the court. It wasn't just that they were very bad at attacking the rim, which I mentioned on the last thread, but they were also nearly as bad at utilizing the 3pt line. When you combine their shot frequencies At the Rim + Behind the Arc, they were the worst team in the entire league over this time period. In these 10 years, they ranked dead last 4 times and 2nd to last another 4 times! With a player of KG's caliber, a very good offensive coach in Saunders, and a team with relatively better offensive talent than defense... these are just ugly numbers. I know KG led these teams to top 5 caliber offenses from '02-'05, but those offenses had relatively low ceilings because of how flawed their general approach was.
I understand that KG had poor help in Minny. I know the Joe Smith situation was unprecedented which put Minny in a huge hole when it came to adding talent to the roster. I know KG got unlucky when it came to Marbury and Billups both leaving. I know KG is an extremely well rounded offensive player. I'm taking all this into account.
But I just don't buy KG's offensive impact as being as high as some others do, based on how functionally flawed these Wolves offenses were. A lot of that blame goes to the bad Timberwolves franchise, but KG's high post hub offensive style and unwillingness to attack the rim consistently was a big reason for the Timberwolves' shot frequencies at the high leverage areas being so poor.
From 2001-2007, there were 113 players who compiled 1000+ assists. KG was ranked 15th in terms of total assists over this span. Tim Duncan was ranked 44th, Shaq was ranked 78th, Dirk was ranked 58th, and Kobe was ranked 16th. However, a significantly higher portion of KG's assists were in the mid-range area than the other Legends from this list.
https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/player?Season=2001-02,2000-01,2002-03,2003-04,2004-05,2005-06,2006-07&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason
Ratio of Assists being At Rim or 3pters: '01-'07 (out of 113 players)
Shaq: 1st
Duncan: 2nd
Kobe: 7th
Dirk: 15th
Garnett: 99th
This is one of the main reasons I voted for Duncan and Shaq ahead of KG. Those two guys were able to dominate the game inside to get their teammates great looks at high value shot locations. They were literally the top 2 out of the 113 qualifying players at ratio of assists being at high value locations. Dirk and Kobe were also excellent by this metric. Garnett on the other hand is near the very bottom, not surprisingly because of how much the Timberwolves offense was based around mid-range shots. Shaq and Duncan attracted more doubles and defensive attention due to their more interior based games, which provided significantly greater spacing impact than KG hanging out in the high post did. I'm sure Hakeem Olajuwon would've ranked similarly high during his offensive peak seasons, as the Rockets were built around getting open outside looks due to his interior scoring. KG's versatility as a big was great, but his non-traditional style for a big wasn't ideal for spacing purposes.
KG's flaws as a scorer have been mentioned before. His scoring relied on a ton of assisted jumpers, which combined with his unwillingness to bang inside led to his consistently poor playoff performances from an efficiency standpoint. So his scoring was dependent on his teammates to create for him more than any other player in this mix, and his passing was based around setting his teammates up for lower value looks than any other player in this mix. He depended on role players to make tougher plays on offense than any of the other superstars on this list.
These flaws often reared their head at the end of close games, when the functionally flawed Minny offense and KG's inability to scale up as a creator really limited their offenses down the stretch. In terms of career +/- in the playoffs from '97-'20, Garnett ranked dead last among all players at -87 in 263 minutes. His per minute/possession +/- wasn't the worst, but his career total was by far the worst (Thad Young 2nd worst as -56). And before you say that's because of his poor teammates, KG's +/- in '04 and '08 when he was on contenders in his prime was -45 over over 68 minutes. One of the reasons the Celtics' dominant 2008 squad played so many playoff games that year was because of their terrible play in close games, and KG certainly did not play well in those minutes (17/7/0 per 36mins on .492 TS%). One of the striking aspects of his poor clutch play was his inability to create looks for his teammates.
In those 263 clutch minutes during the playoffs, Garnett had 5 assists. Not 5 assists per 36 minutes. 5 assists total, 2 with Boston and 3 with Minnesota. That comes out to an average of 0.68 assists per 36 minutes over a 263 minute span. For perspective, Tim Duncan had 46 assists in 424 playoff minutes (3.91 Ast/36). This is yet another sign that Garnett's passing is overrated and that his offensive style was easy to defend in tougher environments since he did not create very high level looks for his teammates compared to other great players. The fact that he completely disappeared as a creator in clutch situations is unreal. Speaks to his flaws as an overall offensive player that get overlooked by some.
I would share this playoff clutch spreadsheet I created however it's a little cluttered and I wanted to finish up adding the 2020 playoff numbers and make it look neater before I made a post on it sometime in the next few months. If you don't "trust" these numbers, that's fair and I get it. But if you go on NBA.com and look up KG's clutch numbers for these playoff seasons, you'll get the same awful results I did.
Has anyone ever quantitively tracked this using game footage? Would be very curious to see more and different type of evidence on how much "rim-pressure" Garnett created with his playmaking.
Also for those subscribed to Thinking Basketball, how well KG does "passer rating" compare to other PFs like Nowitzki and Malone?
