iggymcfrack wrote:Hakeem’s much more resilient and trustworthy in the playoffs.
We don't really know for impact.
What we can suggest is his box-production is more resilient (though Curry's BPM after age 34 season is +7, Hakeem's at that age is +7.3 and his latter years, fortunately for the average small, would drag that down).
Curry is (by my impression, without a deep dive) weaker in box-resiliance though there is presently some debate going on about to what extent teams were selling out to stop Curry and to what extent that hurt his real-terms impact.
For whatever it's worth in the small 97 and on sample (mostly from '97) while his box composites hold up well the on-off does so less. This is a tiny sample, playoff on-off is noisy, these aren't main prime years (though the damage is done in '98, '99 not '02 and his average probably "benefits" from not having the age 37 and 38 seasons). For what it's worth I think someone tracking the '95 finals had Houston build a decent chunk of their net advantage in Olajuwon off minutes (in v. limited time, which would make the off rate look great, but also illustrates that it is unsustainable). On the other hand a different poster tracked a bunch of games that were playoff tilted and indicated
very strong impact (though again iirc some signs of unsustainability). This is marginal stuff, but raised due to the absence of pure impact data in this area of importance to him (in terms of resilience).
A counter (to better box-resillience) might be that Curry gives us greater certainty of impact. Curry, for a six-year spell, including 3 with a fellow high usage superstar and elite shooter, has an on-off of +17.2. Hakeem is missing masses of data but we do have 94-96 RS, which covers 2 of his widely-regarded (here, I think) peak-ish years (93-95). 14.5, 11.9, 10.3 are strong showings, especially in the peakish years. At the same time the (non-minuted weighted) average over the 3 years would put him a distant (and joint- with Blaylock) second to David Robinson (12.333 to 18.76667. We'll discuss data snippets momentarily, these sorts of numbers fluctuate but his best known year (with two of his top 3 regarded covered, though again missing
much prime)is below Curry's 6 year average (again, limitations ... benefits playing with Draymond etc) . From recollection the WoWY family tends to see Olajuwon favorably, as did the playoff tilted peakish tracking and the versus 76er on-off whilst the small sample Squared 2020 RAPMs are positive but not really elite.
iggymcfrack wrote:Rim protection never goes out of style and if you think his game of post moves and counter fakes down low wouldn’t work today, all you have to do is look at Jokic to prove otherwise. The one thing I’d be concerned about is Hakeem’s passing ability in a league where zone defense and soft doubles are legal, but I think it’s something he’d adjust too. He’d be a little less valuable in todays game for that reason, but I’d still put him ahead of Steph.
I would say my impression is Jokic's post game combines fakes with brute force, is headed towards the basket and in a direct manner and is, as you note one head of a hydra with a remarkable passing threat (and my impression is people are more thinking of these two things as being somewhat multiplicative, rather than purely additive). There have been Hakeem advocates (though the one coming to mind, not necessarily a detailed footage analyst [Bill Simmons]) that suggested his post attack could eat the clock. His post attack is, I think, less direct and powerful too, more finesse and footwork and fading, less ending up at the basket.