RealGM

Who would win a best of 7?

Both teams are in the condition they were during their NBA Finals but not playing in a bubble.

Did you mean 2021 Bucks? Because that would be completely different.

iggymcfrack wrote:Did you mean 2021 Bucks? Because that would be completely different.

Whoops. I meant Nuggets, not Bucks.

The 2020 series was a lot closer than many think.

Peregrine01 wrote:The 2020 series was a lot closer than many think.

2020 - 5gm - 4.6 net diff

2023 - 4gm - 6.4 net diff

Effectively identical, and certainly well within the realm of variance.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2294125&hilit=2020+lakers+2023+nuggets

This was done a few months ago though I suppose the nuggets hadn’t won the title yet.

I think the 2020 Lakers take it in a very tough 6 or 7 game series.

2023 Jokic is a different animal than 2020 Jokic, but 2020 LeBron and AD are better than their current day selves. Especially 2020 LeBron, who'd probably be the 2nd best player in the league behind Jokic if not on par with him. In this past WCF the Lakers would actually do a pretty good job guarding Jokic in the post and defending that offense for like 18 seconds, but Jokic/Murray came up with some incredible late-clock shotmaking. I think the superior perimeter defenders on that 2020 Lakers team (Caruso, Green, KCP) could hold Murray down just enough for the Lakers to win this one.

SK21209 wrote:I think the 2020 Lakers take it in a very tough 6 or 7 game series.

2023 Jokic is a different animal than 2020 Jokic, but 2020 LeBron and AD are better than their current day selves. Especially 2020 LeBron, who'd probably be the 2nd best player in the league behind Jokic if not on par with him. In this past WCF the Lakers would actually do a pretty good job guarding Jokic in the post and defending that offense for like 18 seconds, but Jokic/Murray came up with some incredible late-clock shotmaking. I think the superior perimeter defenders on that 2020 Lakers team (Caruso, Green, KCP) could hold Murray down just enough for the Lakers to win this one.

The Lakers sold out pretty hard to limit Jokic (fronting, doubling, having AD shadow him on the weak side) but that came at the expense of the rest of the team going off. Murray, MPJ and KCP all shot above 40% for 3 from the series and the Nuggets hung a 124 ORTG on the Lakers who had by far and away the best DRTG going into that series. You lean too much toward limiting one thing but give up an avalanche on the other side.

Nuggets posted their best ORTG in the playoffs in that series (yes, even higher than what they dropped on the Suns) so I'm not sure the Lakers' defense was all that effective.

RCM88x wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:The 2020 series was a lot closer than many think.

2020 - 5gm - 4.6 net diff

2023 - 4gm - 6.4 net diff

Effectively identical, and certainly well within the realm of variance.

Yup, I agree. But Jokic is just a completely different animal from what he was 3 years ago when he struggled to stay on the court cause of foul trouble. He played just 33 minutes a game in the 2020 series compared to 42 minutes in the 2023 series. I'd argue that 9 minutes a game makes a world of difference especially considering the vast improvement he's made as a player.

And the reason why the Nuggets have such a strong record in close games is because they have Jokic, who can create a good look on offense at will better than perhaps anyone the league has ever seen. That resilience insulates the Nuggets from the vagaries of variance to a pretty high degree IMO.

Peregrine01 wrote:

SK21209 wrote:I think the 2020 Lakers take it in a very tough 6 or 7 game series.

2023 Jokic is a different animal than 2020 Jokic, but 2020 LeBron and AD are better than their current day selves. Especially 2020 LeBron, who'd probably be the 2nd best player in the league behind Jokic if not on par with him. In this past WCF the Lakers would actually do a pretty good job guarding Jokic in the post and defending that offense for like 18 seconds, but Jokic/Murray came up with some incredible late-clock shotmaking. I think the superior perimeter defenders on that 2020 Lakers team (Caruso, Green, KCP) could hold Murray down just enough for the Lakers to win this one.

The Lakers sold out pretty hard to limit Jokic (fronting, doubling, having AD shadow him on the weak side) but that came at the expense of the rest of the team going off. Murray, MPJ and KCP all shot above 40% for 3 from the series and the Nuggets hung a 124 ORTG on the Lakers who had by far and away the best DRTG going into that series. You lean too much toward limiting one thing but give up an avalanche on the other side.

Nuggets posted their best ORTG in the playoffs in that series (yes, even higher than what they dropped on the Suns) so I'm not sure the Lakers' defense was all that effective.

We’ve had this conversation when it happened too and went through the post ups thats not what happened lol

The issue wasn’t the Lakers post defense that was perfectly fine, outside of Lonnie digging and getting lost at times off of KCP when they clearly wasn’t the plan since he did it twice and immediately got benched, the weakside help from AD stunt and rotating was working well when they did it but they don’t have anyone that can guard murray at all. Aaron Gordon hit a few threes in game 4, but outside of that the post defense was good once the strategy became AD help weakside off of green or Gordon. We literally went over this when it happened lol

The defense on jokic post ups was good, the Lakers defensive gameplan failed in the pick and roll and stopping murray since they didn’t have the roster to do so, because Dennis was just overpowered and Vando can’t navigate screens.

The defense on Jokic and Jokic centric stuff was good, they couldn’t guard murray (who dropped 32-5-5 on 2 turnovers a game) and that wasn’t because they were selling out on Jokic, unless the idea was they were helping off of murray constantly which they weren’t (and wouldn’t make sense because that would be the least effective help defender).

2023 was a down year for contenders. Lakers in 5.

One_and_Done wrote:2023 was a down year for contenders. Lakers in 5.

2020 wasn’t that good either lol, but I’d say the bubble Lakers were better considering they were just messing around have the time lol

Lakers in 6 I think, that Lakers team kind of has a checkmate against everyone with their defense because of how insanely versatile they were on that end, and a healthy bron and AD would eviscerate them on defense

Hmm, I think it's a bit of an open question if AD gets into the same offensive groove, if he does I'll give it to the Lakers in 6, if he doesn't then I'll go Denver in 6. I'm assuming the Lakers get homecourt.

That's like saying 'will Jokic still play as good in 23?'

We're taking the teams as they played at the time.

Bron was very much sleepwalking untill AD got hurt so either way lol

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:

SK21209 wrote:I think the 2020 Lakers take it in a very tough 6 or 7 game series.

2023 Jokic is a different animal than 2020 Jokic, but 2020 LeBron and AD are better than their current day selves. Especially 2020 LeBron, who'd probably be the 2nd best player in the league behind Jokic if not on par with him. In this past WCF the Lakers would actually do a pretty good job guarding Jokic in the post and defending that offense for like 18 seconds, but Jokic/Murray came up with some incredible late-clock shotmaking. I think the superior perimeter defenders on that 2020 Lakers team (Caruso, Green, KCP) could hold Murray down just enough for the Lakers to win this one.

The Lakers sold out pretty hard to limit Jokic (fronting, doubling, having AD shadow him on the weak side) but that came at the expense of the rest of the team going off. Murray, MPJ and KCP all shot above 40% for 3 from the series and the Nuggets hung a 124 ORTG on the Lakers who had by far and away the best DRTG going into that series. You lean too much toward limiting one thing but give up an avalanche on the other side.

Nuggets posted their best ORTG in the playoffs in that series (yes, even higher than what they dropped on the Suns) so I'm not sure the Lakers' defense was all that effective.

We’ve had this conversation when it happened too and went through the post ups thats not what happened lol

The issue wasn’t the Lakers post defense that was perfectly fine, outside of Lonnie digging and getting lost at times off of KCP when they clearly wasn’t the plan since he did it twice and immediately got benched, the weakside help from AD stunt and rotating was working well when they did it but they don’t have anyone that can guard murray at all. Aaron Gordon hit a few threes in game 4, but outside of that the post defense was good once the strategy became AD help weakside off of green or Gordon. We literally went over this when it happened lol

The defense on jokic post ups was good, the Lakers defensive gameplan failed in the pick and roll and stopping murray since they didn’t have the roster to do so, because Dennis was just overpowered and Vando can’t navigate screens.

The defense on Jokic and Jokic centric stuff was good, they couldn’t guard murray (who dropped 32-5-5 on 2 turnovers a game) and that wasn’t because they were selling out on Jokic, unless the idea was they were helping off of murray constantly which they weren’t (and wouldn’t make sense because that would be the least effective help defender).

Nuggets vs the Lakers (sell out to limit Jokic defense) vs the Heat (limit other players defense):

vs the Lakers:
30 3 point attempts per game were either open or wide-open - translates to 33% of all 3 pt attempts.
15 3 point attempts per game were wide-open - translates to 17% of all 3 pt attempts.
Jokic assist rate: 44%

vs the Heat:
20 3 point attempts per game were either open or wide-open - translates to 25% of all 3 point attempts.
9 3 point attempts per game wide-open - translates to 11% of all 3 point attempts.
Jokic assist rate: 30%

Peregrine01 wrote:

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

Peregrine01 wrote:
The Lakers sold out pretty hard to limit Jokic (fronting, doubling, having AD shadow him on the weak side) but that came at the expense of the rest of the team going off. Murray, MPJ and KCP all shot above 40% for 3 from the series and the Nuggets hung a 124 ORTG on the Lakers who had by far and away the best DRTG going into that series. You lean too much toward limiting one thing but give up an avalanche on the other side.

Nuggets posted their best ORTG in the playoffs in that series (yes, even higher than what they dropped on the Suns) so I'm not sure the Lakers' defense was all that effective.

We’ve had this conversation when it happened too and went through the post ups thats not what happened lol

The issue wasn’t the Lakers post defense that was perfectly fine, outside of Lonnie digging and getting lost at times off of KCP when they clearly wasn’t the plan since he did it twice and immediately got benched, the weakside help from AD stunt and rotating was working well when they did it but they don’t have anyone that can guard murray at all. Aaron Gordon hit a few threes in game 4, but outside of that the post defense was good once the strategy became AD help weakside off of green or Gordon. We literally went over this when it happened lol

The defense on jokic post ups was good, the Lakers defensive gameplan failed in the pick and roll and stopping murray since they didn’t have the roster to do so, because Dennis was just overpowered and Vando can’t navigate screens.

The defense on Jokic and Jokic centric stuff was good, they couldn’t guard murray (who dropped 32-5-5 on 2 turnovers a game) and that wasn’t because they were selling out on Jokic, unless the idea was they were helping off of murray constantly which they weren’t (and wouldn’t make sense because that would be the least effective help defender).

Nuggets vs the Lakers (sell out to limit Jokic defense) vs the Heat (limit other players defense):

vs the Lakers:
30 3 point attempts per game were either open or wide-open - translates to 33% of all 3 pt attempts.
15 3 point attempts per game were wide-open - translates to 17% of all 3 pt attempts.
Jokic assist rate: 44%

vs the Heat:
20 3 point attempts per game were either open or wide-open - translates to 25% of all 3 point attempts.
9 3 point attempts per game wide-open - translates to 11% of all 3 point attempts.
Jokic assist rate: 30%

Ok let’s do this again and go through every made Nuggets three, from game 2-4. I don’t understand why we are rehashing this conversation. Game 1 they tried to go 1v1 with Ad kind of


Game 2)
1st Q

8:41
Murray corner 3 in transition 5 on 4.

6:40
Vando gets completely lost off ball as Murray fades out for a Jokic handoff, and hits the three. Looks like he thought bron would switch



2nd Q:

9:13
Mpj gets a three coming off of a screen, Lonnie gets screened and a bit lost

5:10
KCP corner 3 in transition 5 on 4

Q3:

6:05
Jokic passes to MPJ in the corner in transition, who makes it over Reaves closing out

3:35
Dennis digs off of KCP into Jokic in the post who hits the open three (1)

3:07
Jokic hits a pass to brown for the open three after getting an offensice rebound off an MPJ pullup

Q4:

11:00
MPJ hits a three coming off of a screen, assist by brown

9:20
Murray hits a three in a p and r with Gordon where Dennis went under

7:15
Murray hits a pullup step back 3 over AD

6:50
Brown hits an open three of Rui who sags too much in transition, 5 on 4

6:05
Jamal murray pullup deep three after switch in pick and roll

5:40
MPJ hits a three off a Jokic handoff. Bron maybe you can argue is deep but they were trying to switch clearly

5:00: Rui and AD miscommunication as Gordon cuts in and murray runs out for a handoff from Jokic.


Game 3)

At this point I had to go by individual player highlights instead on nba.com play by play

Q1 10:30
Dlo sags off Murray in early transition and gives up an open three (no idea what he’s doing, think he thought his man was Gordon or something lol)

Q1 5:40
3 on 2 in transition leads to corner three by Mpj



Q1 4:50
(Thought it was Gordon but maybe his foot was on the line because he didn’t hit a three) corner 3 off a pass by brown, Jokic not involved in the play

Q2 8:50
Murray open three off a him and Gordon pick and roll because Rui thought it was a switch I think

Q2 6:45
Murray deep pullup 3 from a horns set

Q2 5:30
Murray pullup 3 over AD in iso basiclaly

Q2: 15
Vando dies on a pin in flare off a Murray and Jokic pick and roll (where they cover Murray hard), open corner three for KCP

Q3 11:45
KCP hits corner three in 5 vs 4 in transition

Q3 10:00 KCP hits an open three from the break 5 vs 4 in transition

Q3 7:10
MPJ open three from wing, from a brown drive, Jokic not on the floor

Q3 2:35
Open wing three off an offensice rebound by Gordon where they crashed

Q3 2:05
KCP hits step back 3 over lonnie

Q4 7:30
Jeff green open corner three, AD was helping aggressively off of him on a Jokic post up and they swung it to him

Q4 7:05
Lonnie helps strong side corner for no reason and gives up an open corner three to brown. You can maybe argue AD was too focused on Jokic in transition and it lead to the breakdown in the first place though but it was more so just a mistake in transition imo

Q4 6:30 Murray open three, Dennis fell on his face. Jokic set the screen but he kind of just ran through dennis

Q4 1:10
Open MPJ three off a Jokic post up, but it’s not from them over helping Rui just lost MPJ completely (Jokic is basically in the restricted are, Rui is just chilling at the ft line lol)

Game 4)

I went by player since only 4 players hit threes this game

KCP
Reaves stunts on Jokic one pass away and KCP hits the open three (Dennis was on Jokic here)

Contested corner three and one

Lonnie hard digs for no reason off of KCP who hits the open three

MPJ
3 from the wing when they help on a Murray drive (Dlo is out of position and ball watching, Jokic not on floor)

Corner 3 off a hard double on Jokic at top of the circle (with like 4 seconds on the shot clock) when Gordon cuts in with bron as a low man (Dennis contests but he’s way too small)

Open 3 in transition, because Reaves thought Gordon was his man I think?

Aaron Gordon
Open wing three on AD whose sagging off and gives him time and space

Open corner three, Reaves was sagging off. (KCP was driving after a loose ball situation)

Triple threat 3 over AD



The Lakers selling out was about limited to them sagging off of Gordon when he was at the three, and regular low man principles in the pick and roll.

They generally had AD on Gordon or Jeff green and had him help on Jokic post ups which worked very well

The transition defense was horrendous, and Lonnie/Dlo/Rui were getting constantly lost off ball and making bad decisions even when they weren’t involved in plays

But my main point, which is the defense on Jokic isolations and post ups were effective, remains true. Of the 4-5 threes that the Nuggets made off of Jokic post ups, and i don’t mean assists I mean possessions from that, 3 of them were when the Lakers ran a different coverage than the one I’m saying and digged instead of helped weakside, and only 1 of them was a result of the coverage itself.

They weren’t good with their off ball defense and had a ton of miscommunications when anything happened because Lonnie is really unaware off ball and Rui isn’t really great when having to move around off ball either, the Lakers werent very good defensively off ball they just had a hard counter to golden states off ball game since their roster was more limited even though they had Curry.

The Lakers ran their defensive gameplan from the 4th quarter of game 1 onwards other than randomly switching up to stunting at times it did basically shut down the Nuggets post offense, the times the Nuggets scored well in the post or as a result of those possessions were when the Lakers were digging instead of helping baseline or if they just didn’t have the guys on the floor doing that gameplan

They did the hardest part, didn’t do the other parts well, and the transition defense was horrendous

Jokic was still very good, and generally we weren’t good dealing with their off ball action and their pick and roll game, but it wasn’t really as simple as give it to Jokic he post up and pass to open man like it was in other series, if they went with that they wouldn’t have been effective, but they did a good job at attacking weaknesses the Lakers had such as their POA defense or specirically attacking some guys like Lonnie getting lost off ball, and Jokic made good reads off of this too.

I don’t understand why people throw out stats for game samples we can go through lol. Jamal was absurd, both because of his individual performance and because we had absolutely no one to guard him other than Reaves who didn’t guard him, and averaged 33-6-6 on 2 turnovers a game on 65TS. Getting series defensive rating and extrapolating that to “the Jokic gameplan was bad” is stupid under than context unless the idea was we were doubling or focusing on Jokic and not trying to defend jamal, which isn’t true for very obvious reasons lol (unless the idea is that we should have blitzed jamal and leave Jokic open).

One_and_Done wrote:2023 was a down year for contenders. Lakers in 5.

Dark horse contenders Nuggets did fine. Consistent all year round.

lakers probably win if lebron and ad was healthy. I really hope lebron isnt turning kyrie when he says he dont need surgery

Really depends if the Nuggets shoot unsustainably hot from 3 again in this hypothetical matchup as well. If they have an average shooting series I think the 2020 Lakers take it somewhat comfortably in 6