RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Larry Bird)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#321 » by OhayoKD » Mon Aug 7, 2023 3:03 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:Vote: Bird
Alternate: Mikan


- People bring his defense down. There are things I don't like about Bird's defense (mostly guarding the ball) but the tape shows that Bird was able to add defensive value in a ton of ways.

I think once you realize Bird isn't an on-ball mega creator, maybe that's disappointing to some people that imagined he was that? What I see in Bird as a 6'9" Kyle Lowry/Jimmy Butler type. A hustling maniac with a giant brain that creates value in the margins whenever he can't dominate his matchup. He may of lacked a bit in terms of force with the ball in his hands, but he more than made up for that with his unparalleled combination of size, skill, motor, and smarts. Bird could really scramble defenses and create a lot of chaos on both ends.

I'm very high on Bird's defense. He was a total tweener in terms of matchups, but lordy did he ever have great hands, anticipation, motor, and toughness. While lots of star scorers get put in the "free safety" position to conserve them for offense, Bird was one of the best at it. Especially playing with a large frontline, his timing on digs and doubles was tremendous.

I also think his on-ball scoring is getting knocked down a bit too far. The handles aren't special (but relative to era, what other guys his size were doing what he did with the ball in his hands), but his footwork and scoring touch let him create plenty for himself against 95% of defenses. I don't have him in the 1% of on-ball creators, but I don't have him that much lower.

So I think the main contention is that Bird is not a mega-creator period(or at least on a level of a jordan, steph, lebron, or magic(ordered in terms of how their advanced creation stacks up)), not "mega-on ball"(partially because as you say, no one was generating massive value with the 3-point shot). But I'll set that aside since it's been discussed to death.

I guess what I'm more curious is how you say "on-ball d" as the biggest factor and then note the "with a large frontline". Take peak Bird where the motor has dropped significantly even according to those who view him as a dpoy as a rookie. Are you confident you would think of him as a positive if I replace mchale with an equally talented small-forward and asked Bird to defend opposing bigs?

I think the limited paint-protection is a much bigger concern, How sure are you he'd look better than say Jokic for example?


Don't we have plenty of footage of that though? Cedric Maxwell started at SF with Bird at PF until 1985. The defensive results were very good, but not elite. McHale becomes the full-time starter in '86 and instantly produces the best defensive season (by rDrtg) of that era of Celtic basketball. But there's too many other factors there to get a really clean read. Bill Walton replacing McHale as the backup big.

They don't sustain this defensive dominance, and for the rest of the Bird era they're an offensive team that treads water defensively. Bird's health cleanly lines up with the team's defensive decline but there are plenty of other factors. Walton doesn't stay healthy in year 2, and the team keeps getting older.

Young Bird could take a lot more defensive responsibility. There's plenty of early 80s footage of Bird ably battling in the paint with Moses, Kareem, and mid 80s footage against rookie Hakeem. We think of Bird's injury problems really becoming obvious in 1988, but on defense you see some of his defensive tools start to degrade after 1985. He looked uncomfortable guarding post-ups against bigger players (this is around when the Laimbeer thing becomes a big deal). I think Bird moving to small forward was partially motivated by his decreasing ability to handle physicality.

This is fair, but then we shouldn't be giving *peak(or at least what is conventionally thought of as peak bird) that same defensive evaluation. Of course I guess this preface a case that Bird didn't peak the year his team did(similar to 91 being assumed as Micheal's peak despite a defensive-drop off because that's when the Bulls won). Nonetheless from your writeup are you sure you're not projecting Bird's earlier defense onto his later years when you're evaluating him?
Obviously Bird isn't a primary rim protector, and his later struggles guarding the ball mean he's only providing value as a roamer. That version of Bird you probably don't want at power forward where he's stuck either guarding a post up or protecting the rim while Parish guards the post up. That's not ideal. But I'm curious what you're including in "paint-protection" because I think Bird's disruptiveness always helped with protecting the paint.

Generally anything that deters or prevents shots at the rim. From what I've seen I'd say Bird could contribute in the paint as an oversized sf, but more often than not he wasn't really offering much deterrence which at SF is...fine, but at PF can be pretty problematic.
I think of 2020 Lebron a bit. Bron had really lost his 2-foot jump so struggled with any kind of vertical contest in the half-court (not just rim protection but contesting pull ups), but Bron was able to use his focus, strength, remaining mobility, and smarts to be pretty impactful as a secondary paint protector who did most of his damage on the horizontal. Bird didn't have Lebron's strength in these playtypes, but he did have way better hands and an ability to make life hell in the paint for passers and scorers.

I think there are two other significant differences between the two

1. Speed


Even if Lebron isn't going that high he gets to spots quicker and while he can't jump as high as he jump like he used to, he doesn't necessarily need to depending on the matchup. When Bird blocks Isiah he's doing it with multiple defenders forcing Isiah to go early and Bird rotates when Isiah has nowhere to go. When Lebron blocks or contests Murray, he's doing it straight up with comparatively minimal help(and this partially allows Davis to do his thing on the perimeter vs Lillard in the first round and Jokic in the conference finals).

2. Awareness/Play-reading

Bird doesn't really court-map the way a draymond, a kg, or a lebron does defensively. You can see this in the first possession of the "steal game" where Laimbeer cuts by him for a layup and in various breakdowns time-stamped in the time-stamps i listed from the first game of the 86 finals.

This somewhat limits him as a help guy, Iirc from when I was watching 86-88 there were alot of plays where Bird would jump --after-- a attacker had passed him.

I think his defense goes from good early to neutral post-85 injury to negative by 87. People seem to have him as good until 88 and I'm not sure I buy that. Even if he looked good(and from film-tracking and when I watched his playoffs before) he looks nuetral in 86, there's the context of him getting to play as an SF because Boston found a PF who can defend and handle, and pass, and score in isolation.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#322 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2023 4:34 pm

Okay, my tallies:

Induction 1st vote:

Bird - 8 (OaD, ltj, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, DGold, cupcake, Doc)
Kobe - 9 (AEnigma, rk, trex, falco, f4p, ceiling, hcl, Ohayo, Dr P)
Mikan - 3 (beast, eminence, OSNB)
West - 3 (ZPage, Gibson, HBK)
Oscar - 4 (Colbinii, iggy, Moonbeam, Narigo)

No majority, going to 2nd vote between Kobe & Bird:

Bird - 5 (eminence, OSNB, Colbinii, Bird, Narigo)
Kobe - 0 (none)
neither - 5 (beast, ZPage, Gibson, HBK, Moonbeam)

Bird takes it 13-9.

Larry Bird is Inducted at the #12 spot.

Image

Nomination vote:

Robinson - 9 (OaD, beast, trelos, Gibson, iggy, OSNB, ceiling, Doc, Moonbeam)
Nowitzki - 9 (AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, eminence, OhayoKD, Dr P, cupcake, falco, DGold)
Moses - 2 (ltj, ZPage,
Karl - 2 (trex, Narigo)
Erving - 2 (Samurai, Clyde)
Jokic - 2 (f4p, HBK)
No vote - (falco, DGold, hcl)

9-9 tie, adding both Robinson & Nowitzki

Image

Image
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#323 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2023 4:46 pm

Colbinii wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Once again, the “deadline” is just a marker for when Doc (or an official substitute) can close voting.


We should sticky this comment for every thread here--although we all know One_and_Done won't be this exact when his player isn't leading :lol:


It's actually been there the whole time in every first post of every thread. I could bold it, but that implies the rest of the stuff in the first post doesn't need to be read.

I'll say that the term "Deadline" is ambiguous here so I'm sympathetic to those confused.

My priority is to give my participants a point in time where they know they have at least that much time so that there's no surprises and they miss out.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#324 » by Owly » Mon Aug 7, 2023 4:49 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
Owly wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Yeah, I'd say it's massively overvalued if anything. People tossing one-year apm and on/off while ignoring larger samples, the far weaker teams a better drob led, the minutes disparity(and how that would affect plus-minus stuff)...has made Drob out to be a Pippen or Wade(or for some actually Duncan+) when he was probably more of a kyrie.

Doesn't' Robinson look really good in both a great many individual years by RAPM and on off (RS and playoffs) for databall (and on-off 94-96) and googlesites 97-14 RAPM and the 98-19 playoff RAPM ...

I do not know what the source for "google-sites" rapm is. Just like I do not know what the source is for Github. I am aware of two extended sets:
-> JE
-> Cheema

both favoring Duncan and viewing him very highly in general

Since i do not see these things acknowledged or mentioned from those who insist 1999 drob >/= 1999 duncan, i am guessing people are not aware of that.


I think the fact that Drob put up monstrous on/off while his team saw a 7-point drop in PSRS(do keep in mind, that this is taking the suns rs srs at face-value despite then literaly being the only team shaq's lakers looked dominant against)with Duncan's injury is indicative of a signfiicant effect from Duncan having to play substnatial minutes with those backups while Robinson did not. I am not sure how you can try and prop drob as an equal or better of duncan when in spite of that same on/off wonkyness the team is unaffected in games drob actually misses and this same "teammate looks better" phenomenn is happening with manu who also ends up looking not all that valuable when he misses substantial time.

Pippen plays more minutes than Jordan in the 91 playoffs and then Jordan's on/off is +2 in 92 with Pippen playing similar minutes? No one blinks an eye. Shaq gets his on/off smashed in the 2001 playoffs by Kobe who plays more minutes in the 2001 and 2002 rs and playoffs, no one bats an eye.

Duncan playing 8 or 6 or 9 more minutes for 5 years sees his noisy on/off look worse? Oh Drob is the real MVP!

Sorry, you cannot sell me on Drob being a superstar. And I do not think proper impact analysis actually supports that but to each their own.


Briefly (ish) ….
My belief is Googlesites was JE, (with a Ilardi APM spell also there) – I could be wrong. It’s the data I’m most familiar with.
Github is something different and I think widely mistrusted. Certainly it has some wonky results that have been discussed on this board. I’m unsure of it’s relevance.
Fwiw, playoff RAPM source is here https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/db5hpt/19982019_playoffs_rapm_1_lebron_james_1_draymond/ can’t speak to reputation, imagine I came across it from here (RealGM PC).
Fwiw, I think I’ve come across the Cheema data in terms of looking at the website but with the listings page-by-page haven’t saved or really looked at them.

You don’t seem interested in actually answering the questions. It’s fine if you don’t want to, it’s your time etc but they were sincere questions.

For instance you talk of favoring Duncan but this wssn’t raised. Fwiw 97-14 “favors Duncan”. It also has Robinson 6th in terms of (rate) RAPM a late-prime/non-prime sample. I’ll grant looking at JE’s 97-22 variant it’s not as strong but even then he’s in the vicinity of O’Neal and Nowitzki. Both being very good is possible.

I don’t see that a source favoring Duncan over the a longer spell would be a blow to Robinson in any sense. Duncan was in some time ago now in terms of a blow against Robinson here. And for ’99 specifically (as I think this is what you may be arguing about, given the earlier reference to plus-minus) Duncan being better over a longer spell and Robinson being rate better and perhaps more valuable in ’99 wouldn’t be mutually incompatible though I again stress this wasn't what was under debate.

I do like that you suggest “not aware” rather than "ignoring".

Struggling to parse the next block of text there. Not sure what playoff SRS you’re using (“playoff SRS” as far as what I’ve widely seen used is badly flawed in taking RS as accurate for opponents but then most use it to ignore the team in question’s RS and it’s not balanced as proper SRS is). But it appears to be about 2000 and ... I don't know ... drawing conclusions about the bench strength off the on-off for one series and a comparison at the raw team level and perhaps against an assumed against Duncan argument that wasn't made.

I haven’t had time to parse the Pippen stuff, I’m not aware of Bulls early 90s playoff on-off (and what’s given, in that context, is quite incomplete) I’d guess it’s not widely distributed and imagine that might be part of why nobody blinks, though as I say I’m not familiar with it (I’d be curious to look into it if you have the source). And I think the 2001 playoff on/off gap between Kobe and Shaq isn’t something that’s ignored. Fwiw, I would tilt towards larger samples but many tilt towards playoffs and titles, so presence in achieving that is relevant for those arguing based on that. That said I would note that this is not really an analogous situation to Robinson-Duncan. The Lakers are +13.8 with O’Neal on and +15.3 with Kobe on. The difference here in on-off is almost entirely created by a tiny off sample. This would not be the case for Robinson versus Duncan ’99.

I don’t understand the need for sarcasm. Not sure the use of "proper impact analysis" was intended as constructive either.

I don’t understand the phrase “games drob actually misses” … particularly what the “actual” is intended to imply … that his off sample at a more granular level isn’t “actual” or real? In any case these off samples would be included in conventional on-off data and that level of impact metric, I’m not sure what the game level data WoWY type you’re presumably referring to would add.
Whilst I think I’m higher than most on Robinson, and would come at it from that angle, I was kind of hoping, not so much to “sell” something as to discuss it (though I have put some mild, mostly implied pro-Robinson responses e.g. regarding ’99).
That said I’m not sure this is going to be productive, so am presently inclined to leave it there.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Larry Bird) 

Post#325 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2023 4:52 pm

Folks after re-examining the Nomination votes I found the other 2 other posts for Dirk that make it a tie.

In both cases, these were non-bolded statements in a sea of hundreds of others words and posts. Please don't do that to me again.

Make your votes STAND OUT so I don't miss them. I'm not going to promise to go back and fix things in the future if you don't.

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#326 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Mon Aug 7, 2023 5:54 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Okay, my tallies:

Induction 1st vote:

Bird - 8 (OaD, ltj, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, DGold, cupcake, Doc)
Kobe - 9 (AEnigma, rk, trex, falco, f4p, ceiling, hcl, Ohayo, Dr P)
Mikan - 3 (beast, eminence, OSNB)
West - 3 (ZPage, Gibson, HBK)
Oscar - 4 (Colbinii, iggy, Moonbeam, Narigo)

No majority, going to 2nd vote between Kobe & Bird:

Bird - 5 (eminence, OSNB, Colbinii, Bird, Narigo)
Kobe - 0 (none)
neither - 5 (beast, ZPage, Gibson, HBK, Moonbeam)

Bird takes it 13-9.

Larry Bird is Inducted at the #12 spot.

Image

Nomination vote:

Robinson - 9 (OaD, beast, trelos, Gibson, iggy, OSNB, ceiling, Doc, Moonbeam)
Nowitzki - 9 (AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, eminence, OhayoKD, Dr P, cupcake, falco, DGold)
Moses - 2 (ltj, ZPage,
Karl - 2 (trex, Narigo)
Erving - 2 (Samurai, Clyde)
Jokic - 2 (f4p, HBK)
No vote - (falco, DGold, hcl)

9-9 tie, adding both Robinson & Nowitzki

Image

Image


Hi Doc - I just want to point out that you(and OaD in his count) missed one more Dirk vote for nomination - it was ShaqAttac, and that would bring it to 10-9 Dirk, in which case Dirk should be the only new nominee, unless you're going to call an audible and let them both in. No one has voted for either of them yet in the new thread, so it's not too late to change it. (Incidentally it looks like you missed his main vote for Kobe too, though that doesn't change anything.)

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2312868&start=160#p107893737

ShaqAttac wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Does anyone have a vote count? I’m pretty settled on Oscar, but I want my alternate to be the non-Kobe candidate with the best chance of winning. It kinda seems like Bird’s ahead of West, right?

It's early days, but it's Bird 5, Kobe 5, West 2, Oscar 1, Mikan 1. I counted at least 11 Bird votes last time, so a long way to go. I know West has more votes coming, but Bird is the front runner by far. I can't imagine West getting 11+ votes until after Bird gets in.

Nominations are D.Rob 5, Dirk 3, Moses 2, Dr J 2, K.Malone 1, Jokic 1.

well im gonna make it 6-5 for kobe 8-)

ShaqAttac wrote:VOTE
MIKAN
I wanna vote MIKAN for 2 but imma keep my vote in case i need to use it for bron.

This is also p simple. He was waay better than everyone else in a waay no one else was, was the best on o and d, and won 7 rings.

ik we dont got data, but he won the 2nd most and he was way better than every1 else. Seems like a simple 2 to me.

Hope that was good!



2. KOBE/b]

Won 5 chips, two or three as best player was amazing for 4. Got great longetvity, higher corp and tbh I think its kinda clear bird really wasn't good enough to be talked about here.

I'm gonna nom

[b]Dirk

He has cool longetvity and impact even though he only won once. Robinson was kind of a playof choker until duncan carried
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#327 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 7, 2023 6:00 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Okay, my tallies:

Induction 1st vote:

Bird - 8 (OaD, ltj, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, DGold, cupcake, Doc)
Kobe - 9 (AEnigma, rk, trex, falco, f4p, ceiling, hcl, Ohayo, Dr P)
Mikan - 3 (beast, eminence, OSNB)
West - 3 (ZPage, Gibson, HBK)
Oscar - 4 (Colbinii, iggy, Moonbeam, Narigo)

No majority, going to 2nd vote between Kobe & Bird:

Bird - 5 (eminence, OSNB, Colbinii, Bird, Narigo)
Kobe - 0 (none)
neither - 5 (beast, ZPage, Gibson, HBK, Moonbeam)

Bird takes it 13-9.

Larry Bird is Inducted at the #12 spot.

Image

Nomination vote:

Robinson - 9 (OaD, beast, trelos, Gibson, iggy, OSNB, ceiling, Doc, Moonbeam)
Nowitzki - 9 (AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, eminence, OhayoKD, Dr P, cupcake, falco, DGold)
Moses - 2 (ltj, ZPage,
Karl - 2 (trex, Narigo)
Erving - 2 (Samurai, Clyde)
Jokic - 2 (f4p, HBK)
No vote - (falco, DGold, hcl)

9-9 tie, adding both Robinson & Nowitzki

Image

Image


Hi Doc - I just want to point out that you(and OaD in his count) missed one more Dirk vote for nomination - it was ShaqAttac, and that would bring it to 10-9 Dirk, in which case Dirk should be the only new nominee, unless you're going to call an audible and let them both in. No one has voted for either of them yet in the new thread, so it's not too late to change it. (Incidentally it looks like you missed his main vote for Kobe too, though that doesn't change anything.)

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2312868&start=160#p107893737

ShaqAttac wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:It's early days, but it's Bird 5, Kobe 5, West 2, Oscar 1, Mikan 1. I counted at least 11 Bird votes last time, so a long way to go. I know West has more votes coming, but Bird is the front runner by far. I can't imagine West getting 11+ votes until after Bird gets in.

Nominations are D.Rob 5, Dirk 3, Moses 2, Dr J 2, K.Malone 1, Jokic 1.

well im gonna make it 6-5 for kobe 8-)

ShaqAttac wrote:VOTE
MIKAN



2. KOBE/b]

Won 5 chips, two or three as best player was amazing for 4. Got great longetvity, higher corp and tbh I think its kinda clear bird really wasn't good enough to be talked about here.

I'm gonna nom

[b]Dirk

He has cool longetvity and impact even though he only won once. Robinson was kind of a playof choker until duncan carried


Wow, okay.

Unless there's a big objection, I think I'm just going to let it stand since Dirk isn't being left out due to this mistake.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Deadline 8:00A EST on 8/7/23) 

Post#328 » by DraymondGold » Mon Aug 7, 2023 6:15 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Okay, my tallies:

Induction 1st vote:

Bird - 8 (OaD, ltj, trelos, Samurai, Clyde, DGold, cupcake, Doc)
Kobe - 9 (AEnigma, rk, trex, falco, f4p, ceiling, hcl, Ohayo, Dr P)
Mikan - 3 (beast, eminence, OSNB)
West - 3 (ZPage, Gibson, HBK)
Oscar - 4 (Colbinii, iggy, Moonbeam, Narigo)

No majority, going to 2nd vote between Kobe & Bird:

Bird - 5 (eminence, OSNB, Colbinii, Bird, Narigo)
Kobe - 0 (none)
neither - 5 (beast, ZPage, Gibson, HBK, Moonbeam)

Bird takes it 13-9.

Larry Bird is Inducted at the #12 spot.

Image

Nomination vote:

Robinson - 9 (OaD, beast, trelos, Gibson, iggy, OSNB, ceiling, Doc, Moonbeam)
Nowitzki - 9 (AEnigma, rk, Colbinii, eminence, OhayoKD, Dr P, cupcake, falco, DGold)
Moses - 2 (ltj, ZPage,
Karl - 2 (trex, Narigo)
Erving - 2 (Samurai, Clyde)
Jokic - 2 (f4p, HBK)
No vote - (falco, DGold, hcl)

9-9 tie, adding both Robinson & Nowitzki

Image

Image


Hi Doc - I just want to point out that you(and OaD in his count) missed one more Dirk vote for nomination - it was ShaqAttac, and that would bring it to 10-9 Dirk, in which case Dirk should be the only new nominee, unless you're going to call an audible and let them both in. No one has voted for either of them yet in the new thread, so it's not too late to change it. (Incidentally it looks like you missed his main vote for Kobe too, though that doesn't change anything.)

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2312868&start=160#p107893737

ShaqAttac wrote:well im gonna make it 6-5 for kobe 8-)



Wow, okay.

Unless there's a big objection, I think I'm just going to let it stand since Dirk isn't being left out due to this mistake.


Doctor MJ wrote:Folks after re-examining the Nomination votes I found the other 2 other posts for Dirk that make it a tie.

In both cases, these were non-bolded statements in a sea of hundreds of others words and posts. Please don't do that to me again.

Make your votes STAND OUT so I don't miss them. I'm not going to promise to go back and fix things in the future if you don't.

Doc
Hey Doc, apologies for the trouble!

The reason I didn't bold the nomination at the top was because I wasn't actually voting Dirk for nomination! I had said " I would have thought Dirk due to his longevity, and if a tiebreaker is necessary I would go Dirk for now. But..." I have Robinson high enough for peak/prime that I wasn't ready to commit to a Dirk vote unless a tiebreaker was necessary. Part of this reasoning was that I didn't realize both could get in, in the case of a tie, which actually more closely aligns with my view of the two players.

Sorry for the confusion -- I'll be much clearer about my nominations (or when I'm abstaining from nominating) in the future. And thanks as always for your hard efforts running this project :D

Given Shaq nominated Dirk and I didn't actually nominate anyone, both players should still be tied, so I'd agree that we should let it stand.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #12 (Larry Bird) 

Post#329 » by One_and_Done » Mon Aug 7, 2023 9:57 pm

At 17 pages this was the longest thread so far, and at 28 votes it was only behind the run off vote for KG (which had 30 votes, 6 after the run off began).
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