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How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 8:04 pm
by rk2023
Pretty cool breakdown of a vintage Wade performance in what I see as his 'break-out' year. Of-course, building on that into 2006 and being able to sustain amazing lift and phenomenal RS/PS efforts over a larger sample serves as a huge feather in his cap (iirc, he won POTY in the boards' Retro Project by a decent margin that too). This leads me to wonder how many players in their respective rookie through third years were as good or better than Wade - contingent on how one would determine this. Personally I only see Kareem (1971/72) and Walton (1977) as having strong cases over Wade in this context.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 8:18 pm
by 1993Playoffs
Shaq has a strong argument as well imo
93-95
Edit - maybe Hakeem too 85-87 went to the Finals in year 2
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 8:22 pm
by OldSchoolNoBull
rk2023 wrote:Pretty cool breakdown of a vintage Wade performance in what I see as his 'break-out' year. Of-course, building on that into 2006 and being able to sustain amazing lift and phenomenal RS/PS efforts over a larger sample serves as a huge feather in his cap (iirc, he won POTY in the boards' Retro Project by a decent margin that too). This leads me to wonder how many players in their respective rookie through third years were as good or better than Wade - contingent on how one would determine this. Personally I only see Kareem (1971/72) and Walton (1977) as having strong cases over Wade in this context.
Well, Magic won two championships and two Finals MVPs in his first three years(though you could argue Kareem deserved the first FMVP).
Russell won two championships in his first three years.
Bird led one of the greatest rookie-year turnarounds in league history and won a championship in his second year.
Duncan won a championship and Finals MVP in his second year.
Shaq got to the Finals in his third year.
MJ doesn't have the team success, but he posted a 5.03 RAPM(via Squared) in his rookie year(good for #6 in the league). We don't have data for 86 or 87, but via Squared he was #1 in the league in RAPM in his fourth season(88) with 7.47. Given his fourth year is when he won his first MVP and a DPOY while posting that RAPM, it's not a huge leap to think he wasn't a dramatically different player one year earlier. But I guess his case isn't as strong as the other three due to team success.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:38 pm
by rk2023
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:rk2023 wrote:Pretty cool breakdown of a vintage Wade performance in what I see as his 'break-out' year. Of-course, building on that into 2006 and being able to sustain amazing lift and phenomenal RS/PS efforts over a larger sample serves as a huge feather in his cap (iirc, he won POTY in the boards' Retro Project by a decent margin that too). This leads me to wonder how many players in their respective rookie through third years were as good or better than Wade - contingent on how one would determine this. Personally I only see Kareem (1971/72) and Walton (1977) as having strong cases over Wade in this context.
Well, Magic won two championships and two Finals MVPs in his first three years(though you could argue Kareem deserved the first FMVP).
Russell won two championships in his first three years.
Bird led one of the greatest rookie-year turnarounds in league history and won a championship in his second year.
Duncan won a championship and Finals MVP in his second year.
Shaq got to the Finals in his third year.
MJ doesn't have the team success, but he posted a 5.03 RAPM(via Squared) in his rookie year(good for #6 in the league). We don't have data for 86 or 87, but via Squared he was #1 in the league in RAPM in his fourth season(88) with 7.47. Given his fourth year is when he won his first MVP and a DPOY while posting that RAPM, it's not a huge leap to think he wasn't a dramatically different player one year earlier. But I guess his case isn't as strong as the other three due to team success.
Thanks for sharing, all of those are great shouts!
In a nutshell, I think 2006 Wade was the best offensive player out of that grouping of the 7 and their corresponding seasons (though 87 Jordan and 95 Shaq would be close, imo). I'd say he's somewhat comparable to Bird on defense - albeit I would go with Bird, gun to my head - and decently better than the likes of Jordan/Shaq/Magic here.
Russell by 1959, from what it seems, had a tremendous impact as a defensive anchor and Duncan was phenomenal as a 1-B on a historically great defense while being deployed as San Antonio's leading scorer. While I believe Russ was a tangible positive-value player much more often than not on offense, am unsure if his offense was more valuable than Wade's defense to the same extent Russell's defense was more valuable than Wade's offense. I would take 2002 and 2003 Duncan comfortably over any Wade effort, but don't think - even with his excellence on either side - he was as adept a floor-raiser as 2006 Wade at that point in his career.
I see Robinson (1990-92) and Robertson (1963 most likely here) as similar players to whom you mentioned, but am feeling good about the original premise here.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:42 pm
by Ron Swanson
I mean, it's a pretty long list when you realize that most greats pre-2000's were 3-4 year college guys and therefore peaked sooner into their NBA careers. Russell, Wilt, Oscar, West, Kareem, Walton, Magic, Bird, Jordan, Admiral, Hakeem, Duncan, Shaq all have pretty solid cases, and that's not really taking anything away from Wade.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:43 pm
by penbeast0
David Robinson's first three year he averaged roughly 25/12.5/2.5 with a VORP of around 7.5 and a TS Add of around 250 and a DPOY. That's an average year probably better than Wade's peak of the 3.
In terms of old guys, Wilt and Russell were, of course, ridiculous though Russell only played half of his first season. Oscar (Jerry West's first year was underwhelming, like Wade's at this level of comparison). Connie Hawkins was also significantly more valuable than Wade (in a significantly weaker league his first two years) though again, only played half of one of his years.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:59 pm
by SHAQ32
I'd take year 1-3 Penny over Wade, despite what the stats may say.
Re: How Many Year 1-3 Players Would You Take over 2006 Wade
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:02 pm
by rk2023
LukaTheGOAT wrote:06 RS Wade
RAPTOR-9.16
BPM-7.7
PIPM-7.24
Englemann PI RAPM-6.1
TWPR-35.63
Wade in the 06 postseason, Inflation Adjusted (adjusted to a 110-league average).
•) 29.1 points
•) 6.0 rebounds
•) 5.8 assists
•) 2.2 steals
•) 1.1 blocks
•) +7.6 opp. adjusted rTS%
•) +22.2 on-off net swing
PS PIPM-5.54
PS RAPTOR-9.88
PS BPM-9.3
What is even more remarkable about Wade's 06 PS run that he won a championship with was that his PS Cast's AuPM/G was a solid negative (Relative AuPM value of the 2nd through the 8th-best player on a team, among players who logged at least 40 percent of team’s minutes. Value is relative to +0.75.). This means that his cast was below average (0 is average), by a notable margin, yet he was able to take such a team to championship heights at such a young age.
For reference for how historical a feat this is, AuPM/G goes back to 1997 and goes until 2021. Wade's 06 supporting cast is the WEAKEST EVER to win a championship in the stat's history according to the article on the Backpicks site. 06 Wade's run was nothing short of amazing.
Wade also showed good rim-protection instincts early on in his career. He was like a pseudo-big out there
Kevin Pelton ranked the greatest PS runs ever per a metric he developed (Wade comes out 15th).
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23651740/ranking-50-greatest-individual-postseasons-modern-nba-history
A good post on how damn good Wade was all season.