Better offensive peak, Jokic or MJ?

[rk2023]

Who’s better for you? From Squared’s data on +/- and heat-maps, it seems both Jokic and Jordan have similar on numbers (I’d reckon the same for rORTG) where co-linearity provides somewhat a boost. Jordan of course is the better scorer, but Jokic screens/rebounds/playmakes better - giving him the more malleable game around various talents. It’s close Imo, but curious to see the sentiment on here.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Who’s better for you? From Squared’s data on +/- and heat-maps, it seems both Jokic and Jordan have similar on numbers (I’d reckon the same for rORTG) where co-linearity provides somewhat a boost. Jordan of course is the better scorer, but Jokic screens/rebounds/playmakes better - giving him the more malleable game around various talents. It’s close Imo, but curious to see the sentiment on here.

Have fun guys

huh?

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think Jokic has the game to be better than MJ on offense, however, I wouldn't say he has had a PS run, as dominant offensively as 91 MJ yet.

I think Jokic is the better RS offensive player. The fact that Jokic could put up GOAT-offensive RS numbers (outside of 16 Curry) in 22 and 23, which were vastly different situations is so compelling. Jokic showed he could do things as a score-first offensive player, and then also be more of a pass-first guy in 23, once his 2nd and 3rd options were back. I am not sure I have seen anyone do it quite like Jokic.

However, I will see maybe do to sub-optimal team construction in 22, and a wrist injury bother Jokic early in 23, the numbers we have for him are a bit below MJ.

Per O-BPM, MJ has 3 PS runs of at least 15 games better than 23 Jokic and another 1 that is tied.

Per O-RAPTOR, MJ has 3 PS runs better than 23 Jokic.

A lot of that has to do with scoring.

At this point in time, Jokic's 3-year scoring peak is at about 30.5 pts per 75 (rTS% of 4.7%). This is quite impressive. However, MJ has 6 adjusted 3-year scoring stretches with better volume and efficiency.

Perhaps MJ's best 3-year stretch is from 89-91, where he has is averaging and adjusted 33.8 pts per 75 (rTS% of 7.3%).

This scoring, I believe spilled over into the success of their offenses.

While it is EXTREMELY early for Jokic, MJ's PS offenses have been able to create more separation than Joker's teams on that end. For example, the Bulls had a 3-year PS offensive stretch of rORTG peaking at +8.6. The Nuggets have not had a single PS with Jokic yet, that has touched that number, let alone for a 3-year stretch.

The final thing to note, is that while Jokic is leagues ahead of Jordan as a playmaker, I do believe Jordan is creating ample shots for teammates. If you look at era-adjusted box-creation, Jordan's estimated shots created are on a per-possession basis are in line relatively in line with Jokic. Jokic gets more value from playmaking due to finding higher-value passes. However, there does seem to be benefits to being a guard, where you can handle the ball more and pick your spots. You do get to navigate a defense a bit more, and possibly find open teammates. On a team that would presumably allow playmaking responsibility, you are getting a lot of value from Jordan creating so much.

If I wanted to hedge my bets, I would say, Jokic will end up with a better offensive prime than Jordan. However, if we go strictly off the value/what they have done in the PS, I think Jordan has an argument. However, I think it is important to not just look at the numbers, but look at their games, and attempt to project them in a vacuum.


And I suppose I should harp on the team offensive ratings point a bit more, because from what I can see, it is getting more and more difficult for teams to create separations from opponents nowadays than say in Jordan's time. I think this probably plays a role in championship odds/just how dominant offensive teams there can be. The 2023 Nuggets had a rORTG of +3, among the best in the league.

Their 3-year rORTG since Jokic won his first MVP in 2021 was +3.4, peaking at a +4.7 in 21. The Bulls had a 3-year rORTG peak of +6.3, peaking at +7.3 in in 92. The Bulls have 6, 3-year stretches involving Jordan that surpass the Nuggets mark. To me this is more evidence, that we might be hitting a ceiling in terms of how good offenses can get. Teams are searching for 3s and dunks so much, and with the optimization of the current NBA, it is really hard to get significantly better than the competition on offense. This makes me wonder if 1-man offense was easier in Jordan's day, potentially bolstering his case here.

[MrVorp]

From the sampled games in 88 and 91 Jordan’s Offensive net On/Off is ~+17-18 per 100. Jokic was at +20 this year and +10 last year. I could see peak Jokic rivaling MJ in offensive impact in the RS but adding on to what Luka said in my opinion I think the postseason clearly separates them. Jokic last postseason had a 9.1 OBPM. Jordan over his first 111 postseason games averaged 9.3. We’ll see what Jokic does in the coming years but I think it will be hard to top.

[lessthanjake]

I think the answer is Jokic. I don’t really think there’s ever been an offensive peak as high as Jokic except maybe Steph 2016, but even that didn’t quite carry over to the postseason.

[homecourtloss]

There was similar discussion here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2307756&hilit=Peak+Jokic

[Peregrine01]

I think Jokic has the game to be better than MJ on offense, however, I wouldn't say he has had a PS run, as dominant offensively as 91 MJ yet.

I think Jokic is the better RS offensive player. The fact that Jokic could put up GOAT-offensive RS numbers (outside of 16 Curry) in 22 and 23, which were vastly different situations is so compelling. Jokic showed he could do things as a score-first offensive player, and then also be more of a pass-first guy in 23, once his 2nd and 3rd options were back. I am not sure I have seen anyone do it quite like Jokic.

However, I will see maybe do to sub-optimal team construction in 22, and a wrist injury bother Jokic early in 23, the numbers we have for him are a bit below MJ.

Per O-BPM, MJ has 3 PS runs of at least 15 games better than 23 Jokic and another 1 that is tied.

Per O-RAPTOR, MJ has 3 PS runs better than 23 Jokic.

A lot of that has to do with scoring.

At this point in time, Jokic's 3-year scoring peak is at about 30.5 pts per 75 (rTS% of 4.7%). This is quite impressive. However, MJ has 6 adjusted 3-year scoring stretches with better volume and efficiency.

Perhaps MJ's best 3-year stretch is from 89-91, where he has is averaging and adjusted 33.8 pts per 75 (rTS% of 7.3%).

This scoring, I believe spilled over into the success of their offenses.

While it is EXTREMELY early for Jokic, MJ's PS offenses have been able to create more separation than Joker's teams on that end. For example, the Bulls had a 3-year PS offensive stretch of rORTG peaking at +8.6. The Nuggets have not had a single PS with Jokic yet, that has touched that number, let alone for a 3-year stretch.

The final thing to note, is that while Jokic is leagues ahead of Jordan as a playmaker, I do believe Jordan is creating ample shots for teammates. If you look at era-adjusted box-creation, Jordan's estimated shots created are on a per-possession basis are in line relatively in line with Jokic. Jokic gets more value from playmaking due to finding higher-value passes. However, there does seem to be benefits to being a guard, where you can handle the ball more and pick your spots. You do get to navigate a defense a bit more, and possibly find open teammates. On a team that would presumably allow playmaking responsibility, you are getting a lot of value from Jordan creating so much.

If I wanted to hedge my bets, I would say, Jokic will end up with a better offensive prime than Jordan. However, if we go strictly off the value/what they have done in the PS, I think Jordan has an argument. However, I think it is important to not just look at the numbers, but look at their games, and attempt to project them in a vacuum.


And I suppose I should harp on the team offensive ratings point a bit more, because from what I can see, it is getting more and more difficult for teams to create separations from opponents nowadays than say in Jordan's time. I think this probably plays a role in championship odds/just how dominant offensive teams there can be. The 2023 Nuggets had a rORTG of +3, among the best in the league.

Their 3-year rORTG since Jokic won his first MVP in 2021 was +3.4, peaking at a +4.7 in 21. The Bulls had a 3-year rORTG peak of +6.3, peaking at +7.3 in in 92. The Bulls have 6, 3-year stretches involving Jordan that surpass the Nuggets mark. To me this is more evidence, that we might be hitting a ceiling in terms of how good offenses can get. Teams are searching for 3s and dunks so much, and with the optimization of the current NBA, it is really hard to get significantly better than the competition on offense. This makes me wonder if 1-man offense was easier in Jordan's day, potentially bolstering his case here.

Good points. On the scoring efficiency thing, I think Ben mentioned that Jokic gets dinged up to 4 TS pts because of all his tipping. I think his real efficiency is a good deal higher than +5%.