1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.
2. Nomination vote now works the same way.
3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.
4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.
5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.
5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.
Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):
Spoiler:
AEnigma Ambrose ceilng raiser ceoofkobefans Clyde Frazier Colbinii cupcakesnake Doctor MJ Dooley DQuinn1575 Dr Positivity DraymondGold Dutchball97 eminence f4p falcolombardi Fundamentals21 Gibson22 HeartBreakKid homecourtloss iggymcfrack LA Bird JimmyFromNz Joao Saraiva lessthanjake ljspeelman Lou Fan Moonbeam Narigo OhayoKD OldSchoolNoBull One_and_Done penbeast0 rk2023 Samurai ShaqAttac Taj FTW Tim Lehrbach trelos6 trex_8063 ty 4191 ZeppelinPage
Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Charles Barkley
James Harden
Moses Malone
Steve Nash
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 3:13 pm
by HeartBreakKid
Vote for Steve Nash - Other than Giannis this is a battle of offensive juggernauts.
Harden, Barkley, Malone, and Nash are all heavy oriented offensive players with varying degrees of defensive limitations.
Malone and especially Barkley leave a lot to be desired on defense. Also, if you're going to reply "Malone may have been average" - that means he is bad. Saying someone is average at best means they are almost certainly below par, and it is not worth arguing just to make them look a little more palpable.
But basically, it comes down to if I want someone to really carry the best offense am I picking these big boys over Nash? And I really just do not see how I can.
Being a better scorer isn't relevant. Being a better rebounder isn't relevant. Those are means to an end. Nash being one of the best shooters and passers of all time is just a how when explaining his methods of becoming one of the best offensive players of all time which is the actual important part. What matters is if a team has Steve Nash and they generate more points than teams that have Barkley/Malone/Durant than that likely means Nash is the superior offensive player despite any PPG or rebounding differences.
Nash has been on the #1 offense for a billion years in two different clubs. He has been on the best offenses of all time and again, has more or less done so in two different clubs (defined by relative to their competition). While most people only look at Nash as existing between the years of 2005-2007, he did indeed exist before and after.
Nash's after years where people did not really care about him are the years that helped ensure that he wasn't just a flash in the pan to me. When you look at Nash and the Suns with a closer eye you can see that even if his boxscore numbers go down, his coach that supposedly made him a "system pg" left, or his teammates become irrelevant the Suns are always winning games and are always popping out great offenses. Even at 37 years old, his last season in Phoenix still lead to a top ten offense and a .500 record in a tough Western conference. That was a team that had Jared Dudley, Marcin Gortat and 40 year old Grant Hill as their best players.
I also think because Nash is a PG he hurts your defense a little less than Barkley. I think this is a major weakness for Barkley in this comparison. Even if they were equal on offense which might not be too far off, it's difficult to imagine many combinations of teams that are not hurt by Barkley playing bad defense (sometimes even on purpose).
People love talking about Barkley's rebounds, but if Barkley is a terrible defender then what is the point of referencing that he gets a lot of defensive rebounds? If the argument is that he gets a lot of offensive rebounds...well, yes, he is a great offensive player. No one is really denying that. I don't get why people talk about rebounds as if they are a spectrum of basketball that exist in a vacuum. They affect offense and defense just like every thing else.
Harden lacks the playoff resilience compared to everyone else who are all fairly resilient players.
Nash's lack of team success can be explained pretty easily, there was only like a two year window where the Suns had a chance and they simply lost to competitive teams. Most of the other years they weren't contenders. I have no doubt that the Suns could win a title with Nash as their "guy". And aside from that, Barkley, Harden , and Malone are either ringless or only won titles with literally the best team(s) of all time. So I don't think it is fair to really pick on Nash for that.
Alternate Vote is for Charles Barkley
My nomination is for Nikola Jokic(I'm very peak oriented and he has enough seasons where it is pretty easy to see he is no fluke, he is probably better than some of the players on the top 10 list already)
My alternate nomination is for Dwyane Wade
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 5:37 pm
by Samurai
Repeating from previous round:
Vote for #23: Giannis. Not entirely comfortable with this pick due to his lack of longevity compared to to the other nominees; would likely feel much more confident in this if he continues his pace another couple of years. But his prime has been so impressive so far that it becomes a mitigating factor for me. George Mikan Trophy winner in 2017, two-time MVP , Finals MVP, and DPOY - his accolades speak for themselves. Particularly impressive to me is his gravity; the opposing team has to shift their overall strategy to account for him on both ends of the court more than I've seen from the other nominees.
Alternate vote: Moses Malone. Sure, he had his limitations as a player. But he was so elite in his strengths that the sum of his parts is hard to ignore. GOAT-level offensive rebounder. Excellent scorer with a surprisingly soft touch out to 15 feet. Outstanding longevity - not only 8th most career minutes but I read his total of 49,444 as forty-nine thousand and fo, fo, fo! Three-time MVP, Finals MVP, four-time All NBA First team, four-time All NBA Second Team, and two-time All NBA Defensive Team (one first team and one second team).
Nomination: Bob Pettit. To be clear, I have not and still do not believe in time machines so anyone wanting to time machine Pettit to the present NBA or a future era must first convince me that a time machine exists. Without a time machine, it is obvious that he would be terrible today since the man is over 90 years old. And also completely irrelevant. He was a 2-time MVP and 10-time All NBA First Team and Second Team once. I will also concede that I never saw him play live. But his adaptability is extremely impressive to me. His first season was 1955 and Neil Johnston was the big star then (a broken-down Mikan came out of retirement to play 37 games in 56). But by 1964, Pettit's second to last season, he was competing against the likes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, Baylor, Lucas and Havlicek. The league strength was much higher in 1964 than 1955 and yet Pettit was still All NBA First Team in 64. He was the bridge from the Mikan era to the Russell/Wilt/Oscar/West era and he was elite in both eras.
Alternate Nominee: Dwyane Wade. If he had a longer prime, he'd be higher for me. But at his peak he was outstanding at both ends of the court. GOAT-level slasher, solid passer for an SG at his peak and an elite defender.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:02 pm
by ZeppelinPage
Vote: Moses Malone Nomination: Bob Pettit
The more I research, the more I come to appreciate the ability to rebound the ball, and Moses is among the greatest ever at that. Possessions are so valuable in basketball and you cannot have the opportunities to score without rebounding. Coaches like Red Auerbach and Pat Riley had a strong belief in rebounding and conditioning during their careers and made it a staple of their culture.
I think the success Moses consistently had throughout his career in the playoffs showcases this. When teams can gameplan around how their opponent plays, it can be more difficult to be consistent on offense, and this is where the extra possessions that rebounding provides really pays off. We see this in the impact Moses has on the Rockets and later the 76ers. I also look at guys like Dennis Rodman and Ben Wallace and notice something similar in what they were able to accomplish. I think rebounding specifically can be overlooked at times, as a team cannot win without possessions, and shooting more than the other team is a sound strategy that constantly paid off for teams like Auerbach's Celtics.
Pettit was just a fantastic all around player. Elite scorer, playoff performer, rebounder, and was a solid defender as well. His 1958 Finals performance is legendarily clutch. I do have guys like Pippen, Havlicek, and Baylor on my radar but Pettit slightly gets the nod here for me.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:28 pm
by Clyde Frazier
Vote 1 - Moses Malone Vote 2 - Charles Barkley Nomination 1 - Bob Pettit Nomination 2 - TBD
The first thing that stands out is Moses' rebounding prowess. He led NBA in RPG for 6 of 7 seasons from '79-'85 (top 3 in TRB% as well). The way Moses was able to come in and put the Sixers over the top in '83 was really impressive. He didn't come in with a me mentality, respecting what Dr. J had built over many years there. That didn't stop him from continuing to be the dominant force he had been for much of his career up to that point.
Moses had solid longevity albeit a bit uneven. He had impressive durability playing in 70+ games in 16 of his first 18 seasons (80+ in 10). From '79-'89 in the NBA he put up 24.6 PPG, 13.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, .9 SPG, 1.4 BPG on 49.5% FG, 77.2% (9.9 FTA), 57.3% TS. He notoriously tipped balls off the backboard to get the offensive rebound for a better shot at the rim which explains his somewhat lower FG% than expected. He made up for that being a solid FT shooter on volume.
I can get behind the idea that being an average defender as an ATG center is more detrimental than other positions. I still think his overall body of work puts him in this range. There's some talk about his MVPs being over-valued without looking at context, which is entirely possible. Decided to take a quick look at who finished in the top 5 after him in those years:
'79 - Gervin, Hayes, Kareem, Dandridge '82 - Bird, Dr. J, Parish, Gus Williams '83 - Bird, Magic, Moncrief, Dr. J
We were definitely in that changing of the guard stage in the late 70s to early 80s, but overall, he finished over some great players. The only landslide was in '83 where he seemed to be the clear choice. I think Moses was still pretty deserving in '79 and '82, though.
'83 finals: 25.8 PPG, 18 RPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.5 BPG on 50.7% FG and 66% FT (11.75 FTA)
On Malone joining the Sixers and his play in the finals win via Sports Illustrated:
Whomever the 76ers belonged to last week, they were no longer the exciting—if unpredictable—high-wire act they had once been. "We used to be a pretty team that looked good winning games," Erving said. "Now we win games without looking that good. If we put together a perfect game we probably still wouldn't look good, because we have an imperfect approach to playing. Bodies are flying all over the place out there." Malone has changed the Sixers' emphasis from finesse to the physical with his sledgehammer work under the boards. "When we got Moses, he put a little more aggressiveness in everybody's game," says Point Guard Maurice Cheeks.
Malone, who was the unanimous choice for MVP in the finals, was a consistently slow starter throughout the series, but as the games wore on and the other players wore out, Malone just kept getting stronger. "Let's not play make-believe," Cunningham said. "When you talk about defending against Moses Malone, you have to give something up." First the Lakers gave up the outside shot to the Sixers, trying to double-team Malone. Then they gave up the pretense that they could match him with their 7'2" center, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, choosing instead to alternate forwards Kurt Rambis and Mark Landsberger against him. "There are a lot of forces in nature you don't stop," Rambis said. "And he's one of them."
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:38 pm
by cupcakesnake
In almost any kind of consensus top 40, Moses is the guy I have the least feel for. I really understand his game outside of his offensive rebounding mastery. (When I was 13 and had no basketball skills but was sort of big and athletic for my age, my coach told me about Moses Malone and made me feel like a "star in my role", so I've always felt positively about him).
For anyone who has strong feelings about his defense, who would you compare him to- impact wise- on that end? I'm thinking of other bigs who are more offensive oriented. Where would you rank his defense amongst Jokic, K.Malone, Cowens, Dirk, Pau?
Right now on my master list, Nash is my highest ranked player left. I have Giannis and Jokic right behind him, just waiting to accumulate seasons and overtake Nash for career value. Then I have Moses (ahead of Wade, Pippin, Barkley). But he's kind of there out of respect, I don't know his game.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:50 pm
by penbeast0
HeartBreakKid wrote: My alternate nomination is for Dwyane Wade
IF you don't care about HOW they get there, how do you have Wade over John Stockton who consistently produced better offenses, won more, and stayed healthy forever? Are you one who thinks it was Karl Malone carrying him or a commentary on some of the weak teams around Wade when his offenses were consistently below average in his best statistical years after Shaq left and before LeBron took over primacy. Assuming Shaq was still impactful and LeBron as well, it doesn't look like Wade leads his team to near the offensive success that Stockton did although Stockton did have Karl Malone to rely on.
2004 15/29 Wade's rookie year 2005 4th (Shaq played 73 games) 2006 6th (Shaq played 59 games, then left town) 2007 24th 2008 30th (last) Wade only played half the year 2009 20th 2010 19th 2011 3rd (Lebron came)
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:54 pm
by penbeast0
cupcakesnake wrote:In almost any kind of consensus top 40, Moses is the guy I have the least feel for. I really understand his game outside of his offensive rebounding mastery. (When I was 13 and had no basketball skills but was sort of big and athletic for my age, my coach told me about Moses Malone and made me feel like a "star in my role", so I've always felt positively about him).
For anyone who has strong feelings about his defense, who would you compare him to- impact wise- on that end? I'm thinking of other bigs who are more offensive oriented. Where would you rank his defense amongst Jokic, K.Malone, Cowens, Dirk, Pau?
Right now on my master list, Nash is my highest ranked player left. I have Giannis and Jokic right behind him, just waiting to accumulate seasons and overtake Nash for career value. Then I have Moses (ahead of Wade, Pippin, Barkley). But he's kind of there out of respect, I don't know his game.
Defense among listed based on eye test and rep with no statistical backup: (1) Cowens (not a shot blocker but a tremendous motor) (2) Karl Malone (physical banger, dirty even) (3) Moses (even more of a physical banger but not as fast up and down the floor) (4) Pau (maybe higher at his peak but overall this seems right) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (5) Jokic (not a good defender though improving a bit) (6) Dirk (at his best better than Jokic's best so far but more seasons of not good)
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:56 pm
by HeartBreakKid
penbeast0 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote: My alternate nomination is for Dwyane Wade
IF you don't care about HOW they get there, how do you have Wade over John Stockton who consistently produced better offenses, won more, and stayed healthy forever? Are you one who thinks it was Karl Malone carrying him or a commentary on some of the weak teams around Wade when his offenses were consistently below average in his best statistical years after Shaq left and before LeBron took over primacy. Assuming Shaq was still impactful and LeBron as well, it doesn't look like Wade leads his team to near the offensive success that Stockton did although Stockton did have Karl Malone to rely on.
2004 15/29 Wade's rookie year 2005 4th (Shaq played 73 games) 2006 6th (Shaq played 59 games, then left town) 2007 24th 2008 30th (last) Wade only played half the year 2009 20th 2010 19th 2011 3rd (Lebron came)
Why wouldn't the Shaq years count? Naturally, the Heat will have problems having good offenses with Michael Beasley as their 2nd lead scorer.
I have Wade up there for playoff performances. You are right that he doesn't seem to anchor elite offenses. I suppose it's down to I think that Wade might be able to help you win a series more, though his sample size is limited or tainted.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 6:59 pm
by penbeast0
It's your pick, I'm just higher on Stockton who I have clearly above Nash and Wade for career.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 7:01 pm
by HeartBreakKid
penbeast0 wrote:It's your pick, I'm just higher on Stockton who I have clearly above Nash and Wade for career.
I'm not exactly sure how to deal with Wade's lack of measurable impact. It's an interesting question.
I like Stockton a lot. He's in the discussion for me.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 7:36 pm
by 70sFan
penbeast0 wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:In almost any kind of consensus top 40, Moses is the guy I have the least feel for. I really understand his game outside of his offensive rebounding mastery. (When I was 13 and had no basketball skills but was sort of big and athletic for my age, my coach told me about Moses Malone and made me feel like a "star in my role", so I've always felt positively about him).
For anyone who has strong feelings about his defense, who would you compare him to- impact wise- on that end? I'm thinking of other bigs who are more offensive oriented. Where would you rank his defense amongst Jokic, K.Malone, Cowens, Dirk, Pau?
Right now on my master list, Nash is my highest ranked player left. I have Giannis and Jokic right behind him, just waiting to accumulate seasons and overtake Nash for career value. Then I have Moses (ahead of Wade, Pippin, Barkley). But he's kind of there out of respect, I don't know his game.
Defense among listed based on eye test and rep with no statistical backup: (1) Cowens (not a shot blocker but a tremendous motor) (2) Karl Malone (physical banger, dirty even) (3) Moses (even more of a physical banger but not as fast up and down the floor) (4) Pau (maybe higher at his peak but overall this seems right) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (5) Jokic (not a good defender though improving a bit) (6) Dirk (at his best better than Jokic's best so far but more seasons of not good)
My overall career list might look the same, though I am not sure if I wouldn't consider to put Pau higher.
For peaks, I think Moses was a bit better defensively than Karl and the rest would stay the same. Cowens is easily the best defender here though, he doesn't belong to this discussion.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 7:45 pm
by Clyde Frazier
Probably looking at stockton with my second nominiation regardless of him being ripped apart by some the last few threads. I still have his career as the next best PG available. I'm pretty sure in past projects I had nash right after him tho. I totally get not everyone has the same criteria which is what makes this project more interesting. But for me him being the poster boy for longevity and durability puts him on another level. The late career impact stats are icing on the cake. As we get into the 20-30 range, these are all time greats with *some* blemishes on their resume or lacking in some part of their skillset. Let's not pretend like anyone's perfect at this point.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 8:08 pm
by lessthanjake
Vote for #23: Moses Malone Alternate Vote: Steve Nash Nomination: Nikola Jokic Alternate Nomination: Dwyane Wade
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 8:20 pm
by f4p
Clyde Frazier wrote:Probably looking at stockton with my second nominiation regardless of him being ripped apart by some the last few threads. I still have his career as the next best PG available. I'm pretty sure in past projects I had nash right after him tho. I totally get not everyone has the same criteria which is what makes this project more interesting. But for me him being the poster boy for longevity and durability puts him on another level. The late career impact stats are icing on the cake. As we get into the 20-30 range, these are all time greats with *some* blemishes on their resume or lacking in some part of their skillset. Let's not pretend like anyone's perfect at this point.
in some ways, when it comes down to it, i think about how i felt rooting for or against certain players. guys who i hated but always won tend to get a little more respect from me. guys who i wanted to win but i never quite trusted get rated lower. in some ways, it's like anti-homerism. i hated michael jordan, but he felt inevitable. i'd probably rate steph curry even lower than i do, but i must admit that against all but the very very best teams (lebron, 2018/19 rockets), his teams felt inevitable. not jordan inevitable, but i think about the 2022 warriors. they were definitely the most talented team. they should have won. but it's the fact i just really couldn't picture another team beating them 4 times. like i was resigned to it before the playoffs. and then it played out.
well, john stockton feels the opposite. if you were a 90's rockets fan, you hated the jazz. so i had the hate factor. but we beat them so easily in 1994. they should have snuffed us out early in 1995, but we beat them again. even had a comeback in game 5.
in 1997, stockton did hit a series-winning 3 right in our eye, but the point of this whole post is really 1998. stockton and malone still going strong with a 62 win season. the rockets 41-41. hakeem missing half the season and could barely shoot in the playoffs. clyde drexler in his last playoff series ever. charles barkley coming off the bench and injured and only taking 23 shots the whole series due to the injury.
and yet, as i watched that series, it was so clear which team wanted the moment. and it wasn't the 62 win team. even 3 years removed from 1994 and 1995, there was still some magic left. hitting just the shot we needed to, getting the stop we had to have. and the jazz? it was like they were asking themselves "we're the 1 seed and we have to face these guys again?". there was a real "why can't we kill these cockroaches?" feel coming from their side. the panic oozed out of the screen. the rushed shots, the missed opportunities. i hated them, but they didn't feel inevitable. in fact, i pitied them. this had to be embarrassing for them. and in game 4, they arguably hit their nadir. already down 2-1 in the series. 1st quarter, only 10 points. we just smothered them. i think stockton or hornacek picked up their dribble and had nowhere to go with the ball until the shotclock almost ran out like 3 times in the 1st quarter. then barkley tore his tricep and that was that for our offense and the jazz ended up winning.
yes, that jazz team went on to roll a very good lakers team and went to the finals, but that was an indelible memory. one of the best jazz teams ever and they should have lost to an 8th seed in the 1st round in 4 games. not because we were so good, but because they just didn't seem up to the moment. and i don't think it's really that different than all the other times they failed in the playoffs.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 8:54 pm
by rk2023
Same primary vote and nomination as last time.
To be completely honest, from more of an impact / results oriented approach (ofc such should come with context) I am struggling to see a case for Harden over Wade (let alone Nash). Of course, Wade's injury problems are well-noted and probably hold a ton of bearing for voters.. but I wouldn't consider Harden a longevity titan is his own-right. His last MVP level season was in 2020, at 30 years old (Might be worth noting that peers such as CP3, Durant, Lillard [for now], Curry, LBJ all have aged better than Harden). I would say Wade is decently better / more impactful at his best years (06, 09-11) than Harden was at his (17-20) - where I'm not sure Harden's 21-23 added years are doing much to sway me. He has had bad injury luck across this time-frame, but I think some of this 'lesser longevity' hinges on Harden's actions placing him in more turn-style, less stable basketball contexts each going season.
Using 05-12 Wade vs. 13-20 Harden, Wade translates better into a PS setting as well where they look comparable, more or less, in TB's and BBR's Box Score - keying in on offense. Harden playmakes better, but they're comparable as scorers (both volume and efficacy considered), same grouping ITO OBPM, while on/off and APM stats prefer Wade. This also isn't factoring in Wade being a vastly better defender than Harden. In a more flat-lined, W/VAR approach - I would be more keen on Harden here, but with multiple factors and curving up for peak/prime and MVP+ level years.. I can't get there myself.
Vote - Steve Nash
Spoiler:
rk2023 wrote: Whom I want to hone in on some more, however, is Steve Nash. Of course, a more recent nominee in this project - but a player I feel should be getting some consideration around the next couple/few threads.
A while ago, Doc posted a POTD/Ballon D'Orange Spreadsheet for reference. The list of players in the last 70 years' worth of time (eg. 1953-63 and repeat) to have an O-POTD, along with their 2023 T-100 ranking, is as follows.
Oscar - 15 West - 14 Kareem - 2 Magic - 10 Jordan - 3 [b]Nash - TBD[/b] James - 1 Curry - 11
While I might not agree fully with each 10 year iteration's selection (on another note, would be hard to see Jokic not crack this list and be tenured for a fair share of time down the line) - it's worth noting 7 of the other 8 players to crack this elite grouping all made the top 15. Of course, this can be attributed to other factors like sustaining such a level of play longer, defensive value being considered, more of an emphasis on achievement.. but I find it harder to be *that* much lower on Nash in comparison. He falls just right outside of my personal T-20 due to not having as many quality seasons as I would want for someone to reach such a grouping.. but his prime was amazing. Of course, his defense is nothing to write home about (I view Nash as a slight negative), so this value was all accrued on offense. What made Nash so special was a playmaking knack that only has been paralleled by Magic Johnson. Nash wasn't the lowest TOV economy guy in the room, but traded this off for a very exploitative, high-risk-high-reward style that paid off ITO engining all-time offenses. BBR's might not paint him as highly (which I think the raw value 16-11 and lower BPM value grossly undersells Nash's offensive value), but Thinking Basketball's Box Score model seems to view Nash more favorably.
https://imgur.com/a/IWdzcF8 As expected, a fair share of Nash's value comes from play-making - being 99.9th%ile or higher across all players in prime values of PlayVal, Box Creation, & Passer Rating while having a scoring arsenal that translated very well into PS play (eg. all-time great shooting, crafty and smart ability to get down hill and finish effectively at the rim) and led to sustaining production for the most part. Blending the two together and consistently probing defenses, keeping them guessing what on earth the action possibly could be gave Nash a footprint as one of the game's best offensive engines:
rk2023 wrote:Even with an offensive slant, the 2000s Suns team offensive results are off the charts:
Same trend, from an on-off standpoint, continues in 2011 and 2012 - where Nash was keeping a pretty mediocre cast afloat on offense (13.72 net-rating swing, 10.7 offensive-rating swing - this with no apparent inflation due to co-linearity).
Using team results is far from the end-all, be-all (as Nash was flanked by an offensively slanted team across the board and solid scorers), but it's clear Nash was the engine that made 7SOL run - as evidenced by him lapping the pack of all NBA players in the 2001-14 sample ITO effect on teammates' eFG% / PPS / TS%. Somewhat expected due to archetype too with volume creators / one man army defenders being favored, Nash looks very impressive in ElGee's WOWY/GPM Studies, consistently logging top 5 values in scaled WOWYR/GPM and prime WOWYR). So from a more different data-driven approach, Nash comes off as one whom elevates the team offense around him to a great degree. - https://web.archive.org/web/20150329072330/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/adj_PPS_shooter_all.html https://imgur.com/a/qAl4p4a
I view this 6 year 2005-10 span I'm most-so emphasizing as the heart of his prime as one that was played at an MVP level threshold on average. This span being supported by two-more weak MVP years in 2011/12 and All-NBA level years from 2001-04 as a Maverick gives him pretty solid longevity. The years played from 1997-200 and in 2013/14 as a Laker are essentially moot ITO evaluating Nash's career. I would suspect those six campaigns drag down his RAPM (I've seen his lower value in JE's entire-career model be cited), but he looks great in the same creators' samples that key-in on his prime rather. So yeah, TLDR: Nash was a pretty damn good and impactful offensive centerpiece. https://web.archive.org/web/20201024055538/https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/
2002-11: 5.7 RAPM and 5.5 ORAPM (8th and 4th) 2006-11: 7.7 RAPM and 8.2 ORAPM (4th and 1st) 2008-11: 7.8 RAPM and 7.7 ORAPM (T-2nd and 1st)
Nomination - Dwyane Wade
Spoiler:
rk2023 wrote: With all of this said, I have a hard time voting him over Wade / seeing the case for it at this point of his career. Even with longevity concerns for Wade, he still has tremendous campaigns like 2006 and 2009-11 under his belt.
Despite having his rookie season, coming back from an injury in 2007, and 2008 which was a vast downturn of a year for Wade - he still looks good in JE's RAPM for the multi-year, PI samples that hone in on his prime play (in comparison to this project's #1/5/9/13/19/20 voted players and a current nominee in Nash.
As a player, I think Wade's floor raising ability is the best of anybody not named Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo (where he's debatable with them in this regard imo) due to being able to shoulder a very high, quite resilient scoring attack predicated on puncturing the rim. Solid passing ability coupled with this gave Wade a great playmaking / shot-creating track record too. Not only could Wade shoulder a huge load to keep casts bereft of talent (before the 'Heatles') afloat, Wade was a tremendous guard defender all throughout the main part of his career (eg. amazing lateral quickness to rotate horizontally or to/from the rim and perimeter, GOAT level shot blocking / rim proto for a guard, athletic/smart enough to function well as a man defender). Even as a 2nd fiddle to LBJ, the 12 and 13 Heat (before Wade battled through injuries / had to get his knee drained) looked amazing with Wade and James on-court. I'd say they surely figured it out .
- 12 RS: 13.46 net-rating with James/Wade on court - 13 RS: 13.54 net-rating with James/Wade on court - 12 PS: 13.35 net-rating with James/Wade on court
Not that I value this *as* much, but Wade was a hell of a leader too for my 2 cents (I saw Doc citing how important Wade was as a figure of Heat Culture). Still turning the clock back despite a very rough 2013 PS to eek out a few vintage games that helped Miami win the 2013 finals, buying in to adding/subtracting from his game (eg. less creation, more of a release valve scoring function, smart cutting, forming arguably the GOAT transition duo, providing a ton of defensive utility in Spoelstra's scheme, having James' back after the 11 finals and reinforcing the Heatles being James' attack to lead). I think all of that is embedded into "scalability" and being a winning player.
Alternate Nomination - Nikola Jokic
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 9:00 pm
by One_and_Done
Vote: Giannis
Alternate: Nash (Barkley lacks traction)
Nominate: Wade (because Kawhi lacks support)
Alternate nomination: Jokic (because he has traction)
Giannis is up for me now.
Yeh, sure, Giannis only has 10 years in the league; but when Jordan first retired he only had 9 and people were already calling him one of the greatest ever. In today’s game would Jordan really be more impactful than Giannis? I have my doubts. Just comparing Giannis/D.Rob/Dirk/Kobe’s best seasons, here’s how they come out:
So the first observation is that Giannis is the best of the bunch and it’s not close. The only reason not to take him yet is if you don’t think he has “enough” longevity. He isn’t just a force offensively, he’s one of the best defensive players you could have in the modern era. Defense is something that’s hard to measure, but I think we can all agree D.Rob and Giannis are 2 of the best defensive players ever. Then on the other end they’d only need to be solid to be in discussion here. But they’re not just solid. Giannis is flat out better than the rest on offense, and while D.Rob is the “worst” of the 4 in the playoffs on O, he’s still close enough that I don’t know that the others have much of a case over him given his all-time defensive anchoring ability. If you’re taking Dirk or Kobe it’s got to be on longevity. Kobe looks the worst on balance by far. He’s 2nd of the group on volume scoring, but he does it by having bad efficiency which is probably part of why his TS% is the worst of anyone except playoffs D.Rob, and his Ortg is the worst of the bunch on balance (because regular season isn’t worthless, your performance there adds a lot of value). Then factor in this is literally Kobe’s very best stretch. If we’d run this from 00-10 for instance, he’d look so much worse (see above comparison with KD).
Dirk’s high end run in the 2011 playoffs is a level of impact neither D.Rob nor Kobe had during a singular playoff run, putting up 39.1 pp100, 11.5 rp100, 3.6 ap100 on 115 Ortg/105 Drtg, and 609 TS% while taking out Kobe’s Lakers, KD’s Thunder, and Blazers, and the first incarnation of the Heatles, is crazy impressive. Yeh, they’d have gone down to the 2012 Heatles once they balanced the team a little and figured out the line-ups to play, etc, but nobody expected them to win that year. They weren’t even supposed to beat the Lakers, and they ka-rushed them. Check out the stat-line of 32 year old Kobe v.s 32 year old Dirk. It’s not pretty. Kobe had 23.3 ppg, 3rpg, 2.5 apg on 519 TS%, v.s Dirk’s 25.3ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.5apg on an insane 673 TS%.
Kawhi has as much longevity as Jokic probably, if we're taking guys without longevity he's my pick for now. I could go 10 different ways nominating right now tbh.
If I was focusing more on longevity I'd take all manner of guys over Stockton including Ray Allen, Jimmy Butler, Gilmore, Paul Pierce, etc. Stockton wasn't a star
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 9:04 pm
by One_and_Done
penbeast0 wrote:It's your pick, I'm just higher on Stockton who I have clearly above Nash and Wade for career.
How about because Stockton was an all-star role player, ala Draymond Green, whereas Wade was a legit MVP calibre star who was in a wholly different tier of player?
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 9:13 pm
by iggymcfrack
Vote: Giannis Antetokounmpo These are his averages over the last seven years: 29.2 PER on .617 TS%, .243 WS/48, 9.0 BPM Charles Barkley's best single statistical season was: 27.1 PER on .661 TS%, .269 WS/48, 8.2 BPM Moses Malone's best single statistical season was: 26.8 PER on .576 TS%, .218 WS/48, 4.5 BPM Steve Nash's best single statistical season was: 23.8 PER on .654 TS%, .225 WS/48, 5.9 BPM
Again, that's a 7 year average compared to a top single season. The only one who can match Giannis statistically is Harden, but Harden's a cone on D while Giannis is a DPOY winner and Harden hasn't maintained in the playoffs anywhere near as well as Giannis has to show that he's capable of turning those pretty counting stats into actual ring equity.
Alternate: Charles Barkley Only other player right now who's been elite in both the regular season and postseason.
Nominate: Nikola Jokic Can we please give this guy a nomination already? His steepest competition seems to be Bob Pettit who has less win shares in 88 playoff games against very weak competition than Jokic has in 68 playoff games against the toughest competition in the history of the NBA, and win shares likely undersell Jokic's impact compared to something better like BPM which was unavailable for Pettit's day. Jokic had a PER of 29.6 or higher in 4 of his 5 postseasons. Pettit's career high playoff PER was 26.1. Even completely era-relative, it's very close and shouldn't you get a little bit of a boost for dominating players from all across the globe in the 2020s over dominating a mostly white and regional league in the '50s until a real superstar finally stepped up? I don't think it's a fluke that a lot of these 50s stars like Mikan and Pettit tend to peak young statistically as just from the beginning of their careers to the end, the quality of the league goes up massively. If Pettit starts his career even 10 years later, does anybody really think he gets even one POY?
Alternate nomination: John Stockton 3rd all-time in VORP and 6th all-time in win shares with impact stats that outpace his box numbers for the years we have them available. He's no Jokic, but he's a no-brainer as someone who should have been selected already. He's more deserving than Wilt, Bird, Kobe, West, Oscar, Mikan, Malone, Erving, and Durant among players who have already gone.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #23 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 9/10/23)
Posted: Thu Sep 7, 2023 9:23 pm
by iggymcfrack
One_and_Done wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:It's your pick, I'm just higher on Stockton who I have clearly above Nash and Wade for career.
How about because Stockton was an all-star role player, ala Draymond Green, whereas Wade was a legit MVP calibre star who was in a wholly different tier of player?
And yet, Stockton has better RAPM numbers from age 34-40 than Wade has for his entire career. He also has higher WS/48 and BPM even for a 7 year prime (89-95 for Stockton, 06-12 for Wade) which is fitted to find Wade's best seasons. Get away from those top 7 seasons and Wade never has a BPM over 5 while Stockton will do that in ten more seasons. "All-star role player" just means "I don't care about anyone who's not a primary scorer" even if elite playmaking, passing, and defense have shown themselves to be just as valuable over time.
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