Why did LeBron team offenses succeed so often in the playoffs?

[Colbinii]

I've been combing through some rORtg of different teams and I noticed that Lebron's teams excelled on offense way too often in the playoffs. Even more than just a few first round series as I believed before.

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) in order to omit his poor offensive seasons so the sample looks really good for LeBron [Just kidding, I have no biases here and want all the data to be available for transparency purposes ],From 2020 onwards AD is the defensive anchor and Lebron isn't in his prime anymore, even though 2020 LeBron is a Top 10 peak of all-time, which has no bearing on this thread.

Note that rORtg is offense relative to opponent DRtg. So any positive number means your team played better offense than an average team did against this opponent in the regular season. Around +5 is league best offensive level and +10 is historically great offense.

2009 ECQF vs Detroit: +5.0 rORtg
2009 ECSF vs Atlanta: +11.4 rORtg
2009 ECF vs. Magic: +8.7 rOtg
2010 ECQF vs. Bulls: +10.2 rORtg
2010 ECSF vs Celtics: -0.8 rORtg
2011 ECSF vs. Celtics: +8.8 rORtg
2011 ECF vs. Bulls: +2.9 rORtg
2011 Finals vs Mavericks: +2.9 rORtg
2012 ECQF vs Knicks: +11.9 rOrtg
2012 ECSF vs. Pacers: +3.5 rORtg
2012 ECF vs. Celtics: +10.7 rORtg
2012 Finals vs Thunder: +11.9 rORtg
2013 ECQF vs Bucks: +5.8 rORtg
2013 ECSF vs Bulls: +10.9 rORtg
2013 ECF vs Pacers: +12.1 rORtg
2013 Finals vs Spurs: +7.6 rORtg
2014 ECQF vs Bobcats: +9.8 rORtg
2014 ECSF vs Nets: +11.2 rORtg
2014 ECF vs Pacers: +18.7 rORtg
2014 Finals vs. Spurs: +2.4 rORtg
2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg
2016 ECQF vs Detroit: +14.9 rORtg
2016 ECSF vs Hawks: +21.5 rORtg
2016 ECF vs Raptors: +13.3 rORtg
2016 Finals vs Warriors: +5.3 rORtg
2017 ECQF vs Pacers: +11.0 rORtg
2017 ECSF vs Raptors: +12.5 rORtg
2017 ECF vs Boston: +20.0 rORtg
2017 Finals vs Warriors: +10.6 rORtg
2018 ECQF vs Pacers: -2.6 rORtg
2018 ECSF vs Raptors: +21.4 rORtg
2018 ECF vs Celtics: +2.5 rORtg
2018 Finals vs Warriors: +0.9 rORtg
2020 WCQF vs Blazers: +0.6 rORtg
2020 WCSF vs Rockets: +6.5 rORtg
2020 WCF vs Nuggets: +7.1 rORtg
2020 Finals vs Heat: +8.6 rORtg

There are several possible explanations:

a) Lebron, being the pseudo offensive anchor of these teams, is a wildly consistent as an offensive anchor. His individual excellence or effort on the offensive end largely contributed to these results.

b) The teams' offensive makeup was perfect. For instance these teams not having traditional big men to clog the paint relied more heavily on spacing. Fatigue late in the playoffs was non-existent as LeBron teams would routinely ramp up during a playoff run.

c) The teams were offensively slanted in essence sacrificing defense for better offense.

Honestly I think it's a combination of all three reasons.

[therealbig3]

I think another reason is although it doesn’t look pretty, LeBron relentlessly hunts mismatches and keeps attacking the same weakness or liability over and over and over again, until they over help and then he proceeds to pick apart the over help. It sounds simple, but it takes a certain genius to identify what the weaknesses are and exactly how to exploit them. It also takes a very patient person who doesn’t get bored by repetition to keep doing the same thing over and over again lol.

Basically, LeBron can almost always generate a high percentage look for his team, no matter what the defense tries to take away. He just has too many options and he’s perfectly happy going with what works over and over again until the defense changes it up and presents him with a new weakness to exploit.

[OhayoKD]

I've been combing through some rORtg of different teams and I noticed that Lebron's teams excelled on offense way too often in the playoffs. Even more than just a few first round series as I believed before.

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) in order to omit his poor offensive seasons so the sample looks really good for LeBron [Just kidding, I have no biases here and want all the data to be available for transparency purposes ],From 2020 onwards AD is the defensive anchor and Lebron isn't in his prime anymore, even though 2020 LeBron is a Top 10 peak of all-time, which has no bearing on this thread.

Note that rORtg is offense relative to opponent DRtg. So any positive number means your team played better offense than an average team did against this opponent in the regular season. Around +5 is league best offensive level and +10 is historically great offense.

2009 ECQF vs Detroit: +5.0 rORtg
2009 ECSF vs Atlanta: +11.4 rORtg
2009 ECF vs. Magic: +8.7 rOtg
2010 ECQF vs. Bulls: +10.2 rORtg
2010 ECSF vs Celtics: -0.8 rORtg
2011 ECSF vs. Celtics: +8.8 rORtg
2011 ECF vs. Bulls: +2.9 rORtg
2011 Finals vs Mavericks: +2.9 rORtg
2012 ECQF vs Knicks: +11.9 rOrtg
2012 ECSF vs. Pacers: +3.5 rORtg
2012 ECF vs. Celtics: +10.7 rORtg
2012 Finals vs Thunder: +11.9 rORtg
2013 ECQF vs Bucks: +5.8 rORtg
2013 ECSF vs Bulls: +10.9 rORtg
2013 ECF vs Pacers: +12.1 rORtg
2013 Finals vs Spurs: +7.6 rORtg
2014 ECQF vs Bobcats: +9.8 rORtg
2014 ECSF vs Nets: +11.2 rORtg
2014 ECF vs Pacers: +18.7 rORtg
2014 Finals vs. Spurs: +2.4 rORtg
2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg
2016 ECQF vs Detroit: +14.9 rORtg
2016 ECSF vs Hawks: +21.5 rORtg
2016 ECF vs Raptors: +13.3 rORtg
2016 Finals vs Warriors: +5.3 rORtg
2017 ECQF vs Pacers: +11.0 rORtg
2017 ECSF vs Raptors: +12.5 rORtg
2017 ECF vs Boston: +20.0 rORtg
2017 Finals vs Warriors: +10.6 rORtg
2018 ECQF vs Pacers: -2.6 rORtg
2018 ECSF vs Raptors: +21.4 rORtg
2018 ECF vs Celtics: +2.5 rORtg
2018 Finals vs Warriors: +0.9 rORtg
2020 WCQF vs Blazers: +0.6 rORtg
2020 WCSF vs Rockets: +6.5 rORtg
2020 WCF vs Nuggets: +7.1 rORtg
2020 Finals vs Heat: +8.6 rORtg

There are several possible explanations:

a) Lebron, being the pseudo offensive anchor of these teams, is a wildly consistent as an offensive anchor. His individual excellence or effort on the offensive end largely contributed to these results.

b) The teams' offensive makeup was perfect. For instance these teams not having traditional big men to clog the paint relied more heavily on spacing. Fatigue late in the playoffs was non-existent as LeBron teams would routinely ramp up during a playoff run.

c) The teams were offensively slanted in essence sacrificing defense for better offense.

Honestly I think it's a combination of all three reasons.

You should do a defensive version of this

[Colbinii]

18 Series > +10 rORtg [45% of all series]
12 series > +5 rORtg and < +10 rORtg [30% of all series]
10 series < +5 rORtg [25% of all series]

75% of all series +5 Offense of better

3 series < 0, the series being 2010 vs Celtics [Supposedly injured], 2015 Warriors [Missing Kyrie AND Love] and 2018 Pacers

LeBron James On-Court ORtg [2007-2010]: 108.2
LeBron James Off-Court ORtg [2007-2010]: 93.7

LeBron James On-Court ORtg [2011-2014]: 110.8
LeBron James Off-Court ORtg [2011-2014]: 103.3

LeBron James On-Court ORtg [2015-2018]: 115.5
LeBron James Off-Court ORtg [2015-2018]: 102.2

LeBron James On-Court ORtg [2020]: 118.1
LeBron James Off-Court ORtg [2020]: 113.1

[parsnips33]

Bout to make a thread on LeBron teams punting and kick returns being perfectly average in the playoffs

[rk2023]

Bout to make a thread on LeBron teams punting and kick returns being perfectly average in the playoffs

What was their EPA/Play though?

[homecourtloss]

I've been combing through some rORtg of different teams and I noticed that Lebron's teams excelled on offense way too often in the playoffs. Even more than just a few first round series as I believed before.

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) in order to omit his poor offensive seasons so the sample looks really good for LeBron [Just kidding, I have no biases here and want all the data to be available for transparency purposes ],From 2020 onwards AD is the defensive anchor and Lebron isn't in his prime anymore, even though 2020 LeBron is a Top 10 peak of all-time, which has no bearing on this thread.

Note that rORtg is offense relative to opponent DRtg. So any positive number means your team played better offense than an average team did against this opponent in the regular season. Around +5 is league best offensive level and +10 is historically great offense.

2009 ECQF vs Detroit: +5.0 rORtg
2009 ECSF vs Atlanta: +11.4 rORtg
2009 ECF vs. Magic: +8.7 rOtg
2010 ECQF vs. Bulls: +10.2 rORtg
2010 ECSF vs Celtics: -0.8 rORtg
2011 ECSF vs. Celtics: +8.8 rORtg
2011 ECF vs. Bulls: +2.9 rORtg
2011 Finals vs Mavericks: +2.9 rORtg
2012 ECQF vs Knicks: +11.9 rOrtg
2012 ECSF vs. Pacers: +3.5 rORtg
2012 ECF vs. Celtics: +10.7 rORtg
2012 Finals vs Thunder: +11.9 rORtg
2013 ECQF vs Bucks: +5.8 rORtg
2013 ECSF vs Bulls: +10.9 rORtg
2013 ECF vs Pacers: +12.1 rORtg
2013 Finals vs Spurs: +7.6 rORtg
2014 ECQF vs Bobcats: +9.8 rORtg
2014 ECSF vs Nets: +11.2 rORtg
2014 ECF vs Pacers: +18.7 rORtg
2014 Finals vs. Spurs: +2.4 rORtg
2015 ECQF vs Celtics: +7.1 rORtg
2015 ECSF vs Bulls: +8.0 rORtg
2015 ECF vs Hawks: +10.9 rORtg
2015 Finals vs Warriors: -1.8 rORtg
2016 ECQF vs Detroit: +14.9 rORtg
2016 ECSF vs Hawks: +21.5 rORtg
2016 ECF vs Raptors: +13.3 rORtg
2016 Finals vs Warriors: +5.3 rORtg
2017 ECQF vs Pacers: +11.0 rORtg
2017 ECSF vs Raptors: +12.5 rORtg
2017 ECF vs Boston: +20.0 rORtg
2017 Finals vs Warriors: +10.6 rORtg
2018 ECQF vs Pacers: -2.6 rORtg
2018 ECSF vs Raptors: +21.4 rORtg
2018 ECF vs Celtics: +2.5 rORtg
2018 Finals vs Warriors: +0.9 rORtg
2020 WCQF vs Blazers: +0.6 rORtg
2020 WCSF vs Rockets: +6.5 rORtg
2020 WCF vs Nuggets: +7.1 rORtg
2020 Finals vs Heat: +8.6 rORtg

There are several possible explanations:

a) Lebron, being the pseudo offensive anchor of these teams, is a wildly consistent as an offensive anchor. His individual excellence or effort on the offensive end largely contributed to these results.

b) The teams' offensive makeup was perfect. For instance these teams not having traditional big men to clog the paint relied more heavily on spacing. Fatigue late in the playoffs was non-existent as LeBron teams would routinely ramp up during a playoff run.

c) The teams were offensively slanted in essence sacrificing defense for better offense.

Honestly I think it's a combination of all three reasons.

Well played.

[falcolombardi]

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

[OhayoKD]

Bout to make a thread on LeBron teams punting and kick returns being perfectly average in the playoffs

Mahomes teams are perfectly average too if you regress everything to the mean

[Wuuuke]

Bout to make a thread on LeBron teams punting and kick returns being perfectly average in the playoffs

Mahomes teams are perfectly average too if you regress everything to the mean

One of the greatest Reddit posts ever

[homecourtloss]

Bout to make a thread on LeBron teams punting and kick returns being perfectly average in the playoffs

Mahomes teams are perfectly average too if you regress everything to the mean

One of the greatest Reddit posts ever

True

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

One of the things that gets lost when discussing how LeBron has been able to take offenses to highest heights is his personal scoring efficiency no matter how good the defenses got, and he played a LOT of games vs. -4 rDRtg teams or better (81), his scoring efficacy didn’t really change. One of the most impressive things is that his relative effective FG% (reFG%) doesn’t get affected by defenses until you get to the -7 rDRtgs or better, which he played 23 games against. For some scorers, they can keep their rTS% numbers g eternally intact vs. good defenses, but their reFG% drops.



Notice how now matter how good the defenses get, the rTS% and reFG% pretty much stay the same:



His scoring efficacy is pretty much the same whether he is facing a -2 rDRtg or -7 rDRtg, which is crazy:



If we compare this with Jordan, Jordan had higher volume, and his rTS% held up well, but his reFG% dropped against the very best defenses of which he didn’t play as many games:

[falcolombardi]

Mahomes teams are perfectly average too if you regress everything to the mean

One of the greatest Reddit posts ever

True

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

One of the things that gets lost when discussing how LeBron has been able to take offenses to highest heights is his personal scoring efficiency no matter how good the defenses got, and he played a LOT of games vs. -4 rDRtg teams or better (81), his scoring efficacy didn’t really change. One of the most impressive things is that his relative effective FG% (reFG%) doesn’t get affected by defenses until you get to the -7 rDRtgs or better, which he played 23 games against. For some scorers, they can keep their rTS% numbers g eternally intact vs. good defenses, but their reFG% drops.



Notice how now matter how good the defenses get, the rTS% and reFG% pretty much stay the same:



His scoring efficacy is pretty much the same whether he is facing a -2 rDRtg or -7 rDRtg, which is crazy:



If we compare this with Jordan, Jordan had higher volume, and his rTS% held up well, but his reFG% dropped against the very best defenses of which he didn’t play as many games:

Lebron somehow a slightly bettwr player than i already thought he was yesterday, which was already GOAT for me

[D.Brasco]

[70sFan]

Mahomes teams are perfectly average too if you regress everything to the mean

One of the greatest Reddit posts ever

True

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

One of the things that gets lost when discussing how LeBron has been able to take offenses to highest heights is his personal scoring efficiency no matter how good the defenses got, and he played a LOT of games vs. -4 rDRtg teams or better (81), his scoring efficacy didn’t really change. One of the most impressive things is that his relative effective FG% (reFG%) doesn’t get affected by defenses until you get to the -7 rDRtgs or better, which he played 23 games against. For some scorers, they can keep their rTS% numbers g eternally intact vs. good defenses, but their reFG% drops.



Notice how now matter how good the defenses get, the rTS% and reFG% pretty much stay the same:



His scoring efficacy is pretty much the same whether he is facing a -2 rDRtg or -7 rDRtg, which is crazy:



If we compare this with Jordan, Jordan had higher volume, and his rTS% held up well, but his reFG% dropped against the very best defenses of which he didn’t play as many games:

That's a cool way to visualise such data. Would you mind if I use the same concept for my breakdown videos?

[zimpy27]

LeBron is on another level in the playoffs.

He exploits every weakness and he plays against the opposing coach just as much as the defenders in front of him.

He is the greatest offensive force we've seen. He does it in a way that improves in the playoffs rather than dropping off in the playoffs like other all time great offensive players.

[homecourtloss]

One of the greatest Reddit posts ever

True

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

That's a cool way to visualise such data. Would you mind if I use the same concept for my breakdown videos?

Absolutely—no problem. Are you specifically talking about the comparison graphs? I played around with a few things. I think the first style is easier to digest as far as comparison is concerned.

The data table:




Another thing you might like visually is to plot all playoff series’ data different all in the graph (I did this but I don’t know what I saved the graph):

[70sFan]

True

That's a cool way to visualise such data. Would you mind if I use the same concept for my breakdown videos?

Absolutely—no problem. Are you specifically talking about the comparison graphs? I played around with a few things. I think the first style is easier to digest as far as comparison is concerned.

The data table:




Another thing you might like visually is to plot all playoff series’ data different all in the graph (I did this but I don’t know what I saved the graph):

Yeah, both cases really. I will play around with comparison graphs, but the series breakdown looks really nice.

[Djoker]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

[Colbinii]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

Ah, so you're saying you need to provide layers and layers of context to explain the differences in efficiency between LeBron/Jordan yet for defense we can simply post one statistic?

/r/selfawarewolves

[Djoker]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

Ah, so you're saying you need to provide layers and layers of context to explain the differences in efficiency between LeBron/Jordan yet for defense we can simply post one statistic?

/r/selfawarewolves

Post any relevant defensive stats in the other thread and I'm willing to see them and discuss. I've tried to post some but other than small sample ON-OFF and shot tracking which is only since 2014 there isn't much to go on.