RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #26 (Nikola Jokic)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:16 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Charles Barkley

James Harden

Nikola Jokic

Bob Pettit

Dwyane Wade

Post #2 » by **trex_8063** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 4:41 pm

VOTE: Charles Barkley
Alternate: James Harden

Again......Barkley, I am supporting for similar reasons to why I voted for Durant previously: I've the most confidence in his combined box-production/efficiency profile, impact profile, longevity, and career accomplishment (in a tough era) of those players listed (made a little easier now that Moses is off the table [and Stockton is not yet on the table]). Giannis and Jokic simply lack the full career value for me yet (though super-close: I would say ONE prime season away for both).
Wade is a somewhat intriguing option for alternate, but he suffers a pinch from similar concerns.

However Harden, at this point, is also intriguing for me. Honestly, I think his player type [vaguely: offensive power-house, weak defensively], effective longevity, career accomplishment and accolades all closely parallel that of Charles Barkley. I consequently feel that wherever you have Barkley on your list, Harden should not be far away. Their respective careers just have too much in common, imo.

Nomination: John Stockton
Alt Nom: Patrick Ewing

fwiw, the tentative rank I'm going with among the official nominees is probably:

Barkley
Harden
Wade
Jokic
Pettit

Pettis suffers for lack of meaningful longevity compared to Barkley and Harden, and in concerns/reservations regarding era vs all of them. He doesn't reside far behind any of them on my ATL, however (I presently have him #31). I could see going higher with him if we had some more tangible suggestions of large(ish) defensive impact.

AEnigma · Post #3 » by **AEnigma** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:16 pm

VOTE: Dwyane Wade
NOMINATE: Patrick Ewing
AltNom: Scottie Pippen

People have touched on how Barkley “should not” be too far separated from Karl Malone. People have touched on how Jokic “should not” be too far separated from Giannis. I have been somewhat silent on this because I think it is a dead horse topic, but for me, the “should not” separation most in play is Ewing and Robinson. I see Ewing as functionally quite similar to Robinson for career postseason value. Robinson had the higher regular season peak, was more “portable”, and played on a team that relied on him more, all of which have made him beloved in these circles, but in significant games against good opponents, I never felt Robinson did much to distinguish himself from Ewing in anything other than as a passer / team playmaker (which is important but at Robinson’s level was overstated by circumstance). Again, hardly a common opinion here, but in reviewing past projects, I was at least able to find a few posts which touched on that sentiment:

70sFan wrote:David Robinson (1990-98):
Against Average Defenses (56.54% of playoffs games): 39.4 mpg, 11.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 3.1 tov, 23.6 ppg on 46.4% FG, 71.8% FT, 53.8% TS (-0.04% rTS)
Against Good Defenses (30.65% of playoffs games): 39.4 mpg, 12.8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 tov, 21.0 ppg on 45.9% FG, 64.8% FT and 51.7% TS (-1.54% rTS)
Against Elite Defenses (0.00% of playoffs games): --

Patrick Ewing (1988-97)
Against Average Defenses (31.13% of playoffs games): 39.9 mpg, 11.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.7 tov, 24.2 ppg on 50.6% FG, 69.8% FT, 54.6% TS (+0.98% rTS)
Against Good Defenses (37.74% of playoffs games): 39.1 mpg, 10.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 2.8 tov, 21.2 ppg on 47.9% FG, 74.5% FT and 53.4% TS (+0.06% rTS)
Against Elite Defenses (21.70% of playoffs games): 40.7 mpg, 11.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 3.0 tov, 22.9 ppg on 43.7% FG, 80.0% FT and 49.0% TS (-4.48% rTS)

FrogBros4Life wrote:Here are Robinson's pre-Duncan numbers again

Robinson
==================

89-90 Nuggets (Reg Season oRTG = 108) 14th in league (Series oRTG = 105.2) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -2.8

89-90 Blazers (Reg Season oRTG = 110.5) 9th in league (Series oRTG = 107.2) = 7 games (lost series) Diff = -3.3

90-91 Warriors (Reg Season oRTG = 111.9) 6th in league (Series oRTG = 111.7) = 4 games (lost series) Diff = -0.2

*92-93 Blazers (Reg Season oRTG = 108.3) 14th in league (Series oRTG = 105.1) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -3.2

* (if we exclude game 1 where Drexler did not play then (Series oRTG = 108.5 in games 2-4) Diff = +0.2

92-93 Suns (Reg Season oRTG = 113.3) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 109.9) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = -3.4

93-94 Jazz (Reg Season oRTG = 108.6) 7th in league (Series oRTG = 110.6) = 4 games (lost series) Diff = +2

94-95 Nuggets (Reg Season oRTG = 109.1) 11th in league (Series oRTG = 103.1) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -6

94-95 Lakers (Reg Season oRTG = 109.1) 12th in league (Series oRTG = 97.9) = 6 games (won series) Diff = -11.2

94-95 Rockets (Reg Season oRTG = 109.7) 7th in league (Series oRTG = 110.6) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = +0.9

95-96 Suns (Reg season oRTG = 110.3) 8th in league (Series oRTG = 109.3) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -1

95-96 Jazz (Reg Season oRTG = 113.3) 2nd in league (Series oRTG = 114.1) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = +0.8

Avg oRTG faced: 110.2
Avg oRTG rank faced: 8.3

Avg oRTG diff = -2.57
Avg oRTG diff (adjusted for Drexler missing game 1 of the 93 Portland series) = -2.36

Faced the #1 oRTG in the league: one time

Lost all 3 series where his opponent's oRTG for their playoff series increased from their regular season oRTG

Now here's Patrick.....
==========
87-88: Celtics (Reg Season oRTG = 115.4), 1st in league (Series oRTG = 117.3) = 4 games (lost series) Diff = +1.9

88-89: Sixers (Reg Season oRTG = 113.1), 3rd in league (Series oRTG = 107.5) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -5.6

88-89: Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 109.1), 12th in league (Series oRTG = 115.8) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = +6.7

89-90: Celtics (Reg Season oRTG = 112), 6th in league (Series oRTG = 119.3) = 5 games (won series) Diff = +7.3

89-90: Pistons (Reg Season oRTG = 109.9) 11th in league (Series oRTG = 114.5) = 5 games (lost series) Diff = +4.6

90-91: Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 114.6) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 116.1) = 3 games (lost series) Diff = +1.5

91-92: Pistons (Reg Season oRTG = 107.5) 15th in league (Series oRTG = 97.6) = 5 games (won series) Diff = -9.9

91-92 Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 115.5) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 111.2) = 7 games (lost series) Diff = -4.3

92-93 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 111.9) 5th in league (Series oRTG = 111.7) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -0.2

92-93 Hornets (Reg Season oRTG = 109.5) 9th in league (Series oRTG = 100.5) = 5 games (won series) Diff = -9

92-93 Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 112.9) 2nd in league (Series oRTG = 112.4) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = -0.5

93-94 Nets (Reg Season oRTG = 107.2) 13th in league (Series oRTG = 95.9) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -11.3

93-94 Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 106.1) 14th in league (Series oRTG = 106.7) = 7 games (won series) Diff = +0.6

93-94 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 107.8) 11th in league (Series oRTG = 100.1) = 7 games (won series) Diff = -7.7

93-94 Rockets (Reg Season oRTG = 105.9) 15th in league (Series oRTG = 100.1) = 7 games (lost series) Diff = -5.8

94-95 Cavs (Reg Season oRTG = 105.3) 22nd in league (Series oRTG = 97.6) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -7.7

94-95 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 109.6) 8th in league (Series oRTG = 106.9) = 7 games (lost series) Diff = -2.7

95-96 Cavs (Reg Season oRTG = 109.9) 10th in league (Series oRTG = 99.9) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -10

95-96 Bulls (Reg Season oRTG = 115.2) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 105.2) = 5 games (lost series) Diff = -10

96-97 Hornets (Reg Season oRTG = 110.9) 4th in league (Series oRTG = 110.4) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -0.5

96-97 Heat (Reg Season oRTG = 106.8) 12th in league (Series oRTG = 99.2) = 7 games (lost series) Diff = -7.6

97-98 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 108.4) 4th in league (Series oRTG = 106.5) = 5 games (lost series) Diff = -1.9

98-99 Heat (Reg Season oRTG = 104.7) 9th in league (Series oRTG = 98.4) = 5 games (won series) Diff = -6.3

98-99 Hawks (Reg Season oRTG = 100.5) 19th in league (Series oRTG = 89.3) = 4 games (won series) Diff = -11.2

*98-99 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 108.7) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 106.15) = 2 games (of 6) (won series) Diff = -2.6

*Ewing played in games 1 and 2 of this series, before injuring himself at the end of game 2 and missing the rest of the playoffs. The series oRTG here is for the 2 games in which he played.

99-00 Raptors (Reg Season oRTG = 104.7) 15th in league (Series oRTG = 98.1) = 3 games (won series) Diff = -6.6

99-00 Heat (Reg Season oRTG = 104.5) 17th in league (Series oRTG = 96.9) = 7 games (won series) Diff = -7.6

99-00 Pacers (Reg Season oRTG = 108.5) 1st in league (Series oRTG = 109.5) = 6 games (lost series) Diff = +1

Avg oRTG faced: 109.2
Avg oRTG rank faced: 8.6

Avg oRTG diff: -3.68

Faced #1 regular season oRTG: six times

Won 2 series where his playoff opponent's oRTG for their series increased from the regular season

So we see that despite Ewing's entire Knick playoff record, and Robinson's entire pre-Duncan playoff record has them facing about the same strength of offensive opponent on average, by both actual oRTG (110.2 to 109.2) and oRTG rank relative to the league (8.6 to 8.3, or, both roughly faced the 8th best oRTG on average), Ewing comes out more than a full point better in oRTG point differential (-3.68 to -2.57), and if we use the adjusted difference that accounts for Drexler missing part of the 93 series, it's (-3.68 to -2.36).

Not only does looking at the complete picture show us that Ewing's average playoff oRTG differential wasn't "a fraction" of Robinson's as you claimed....but rather, his -3.68 mark is outright better than both Robinson (adjusted or unadjusted) and Mourning's. And if we just look at the playoff point differentials for Ewing during the Riley/Van Gundy years it becomes much more pronounced, but we don't have to only look at the Riley/Van Gundy years. Ewing still comes out ahead even when we include the Stu Jackson, Rick Pitino, and John MacLeod years (by a comfortable margin).

Furthermore, Robinson's best point differential in any given series was the 95 Lakers at -11.2. Ewing's best mark of -11.3 (against the Nets in 94) not only beats this, but he has another differential equal to Robinson's best, of -11.2 vs. the Hawks in 99 (with none of the same teammates!). In fact, after the Lakers series in 95, Robinson's next best single season oRTG point differential was a -6, against the Nuggets that same year. Ewing has TWELVE (!!!!) single series that are better than Robinson's second best of -6, six of which are -9 or better. Also, Robinson's Spurs held the league best oRTG Phoenix Suns to a -3.6 in their 93 playoff series. Impressive for sure. Now let's note that Ewing's Knicks held the league best oRTG Chicago Bulls to a -4.3 in their 1992 playoff series, and the league best oRTG 72 win 1996 Chicago Bulls to a -10 in their 1996 playoff series.

Of course, Robinson starts to look better as a playoff defender once Duncan arrives, but Ewing never had the luxury of playing with another top 10 player so it's only fair that we look at their results when both Ewing and Robinson were the most important players on their teams. So the idea that Robinson was vastly superior as a playoff defensive anchor to Ewing just doesn't seem to hold water. And, if you've been reading the previous threads regarding Robinson and his pre-Duncan playoff foibles, you'll remember that Ewing was going up against much better playoff defenses on a yearly basis than Drob, and still performing better offensively. So....Robinson's offense suffered more against easier defenses.....Robinson's defense (in the context that you have presented: regular season to playoff oRTG differentials) is worse despite them both playing relatively equal offensive units....so what exactly is the argument for pre-Duncan Robinson being a better playoff performer (or even a better player period) than Ewing again?

Oh, that's right, as usual, people want to assign the lion's share of that defensive impact to the schemes and style of play, to his coaches, and/or his teammates instead of giving it to, you know, the only single person (player or coach) who was there for every one of these seasons.

FWIW, Rodman was 1st team All D in 95 and 2nd team All D in 94 (also for the Spurs). Starks was 2nd team all D in 94. Oakley was 1st team all D in 94 and 2nd team all D in 98. It wasn't like either Ewing or Robinson had a roster overflowing with perennial All D selections as teammates. Starks had a positive DBPM once his entire career....a 0.2 in 93-94. Robinson had SIX teammates playing at least 15mpg with a DBPM greater than that in the 1991 season alone. He had four teammates playing at least 14 mpg per game in 1995 with a DBPM above Starks career high. Oakley and Mason were legitimately great defensive players, and while Starks was good he certainly wasn't Bruce Bowen. Ewing did have more defensive minded teammates over the course of both of their careers, Robinson had more offensive help to balance that out.

As for Oakley and Mason...Mason was no longer a Knick by 96-97 and Oakley was traded in 98-99. Ewing's avg playoff oRTG differential after Mason was traded: -4.83 (!!!), and Ewing's avg playoff oRTG differential after Oakley was traded: -5.5 (!!!!)..... but yea, let's give all that credit to Starks, Oakley and Mason.

And on the topic of credit and blame....if we are going to place all of the blame on Rodman for the Spurs losing to the Rockets in 95, are we also going to give him any of the credit for that -11.2 differential vs the Lakers or the -6 differential vs the Nuggets that same postseason where he played well in both of those series?

Over their entire primes, Ewing's overall playoff PPG increased from his regular season average 3 times. Robinson's overall playoff PPG increased from his regular season average once. Over their entire primes, Ewing's overall playoff APG increased from his regular season average 6 times. Robinson's overall playoff APG increased from his regular season average 4 times. Over the course of their entire primes Robinson's turnovers increased in the playoffs from his regular season average 4 times. Over the course of their entire primes Ewing's turnovers increased in the playoffs from his regular season average just twice (one of which was a 0.1 increase). And this is against ALL defenses....not just good ones, and we know that Ewing played in the harder of the two conferences during his time and routinely played more difficult defenses than Robinson did (again, as E-balla pointed out, Robinson never played an elite defense). With all of these factors, it's not a stretch at all to say that Ewing was a more resilient #1 option on offense in the playoffs, especially when you consider his raw stats will be somewhat deflated due to the slower pace at which his teams played. As for sacrificing his defense, I agree that 1990 was not Ewing's best defensive year, but over the course of their entire primes (as was how the original argument was framed), Ewing did this while managing to lead a defense that was top 5 in the league for about 8 straight years, 2 of which were among the best of all time.

Actually, when adjusting for pace for every year from 1990-1998, Ewing has better relative scoring numbers when comparing per100 possessions to actual playoff ppg (because Ewing was playing at a slower tempo than Robinson) in all but 2 seasons. Ewing's playoff PPG, APG and TO economy all increased from the regular season to the postseason with more frequency than so for Robinson over the course of their careers. If you are talking strictly regular season numbers, sure, Robinson was more productive on offensive, but he played the majority of his career at a faster pace of play with a style that didn't revolve around pounding the the air out of the ball for the first 20 seconds of the shot clock with a bunch of bricklayers around him. Up until Ewing's wrist injury in 98, Robinson and Ewing both accounted for about 25% of their teams total PPG in any given season, with Ewing actually ahead some years. In the regular season only, Ewing had better per100 scoring numbers than Robinson in 90, 91, 92 and 93. Robinson was ahead in 94, 95 and 96. Robinson was better in 97 but only played 6 games. Robinson was .1 better in 98, and Ewing was .9 better in 99.

Here is a rough breakdown of defenses Ewing faced every year in the playoffs from 90-00:

89-90: Detroit (2nd best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 1st in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 1st in DRTG, 2nd in TO forced)

90-91: Chicago (7th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 2nd in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 1st in DRTG, 5th in TO forced)

91-92 Detroit (6th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 1st in Opponent FG%, 2nd in Opponent PPG, 3rd in DRTG, 8th in TO forced)

91-92 Chicago (4th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 2nd in Opponent FG%, 6th in Opponent PPG, 2nd in DRTG, 6th in TO forced)

92-93 Charlotte (5th in playoff DRTG and 2nd in TO forced despite not ranking out well in either Opponent PPG or Opponent FG%)

92-93 Chicago (7th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 10th in Opponent FG%, 4th in Opponent PPG, 10th in DRTG, 5th in TO forced)

93-94 New Jersey (10th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 6th in Opponent FG%, 6th in Opponent PPG, 5th in DRTG, 4th in TO forced)

93-94 Chicago (6th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 9th in Opponent FG%, 4th in Opponent PPG, 9th in DRTG, 6th in TO forced)

93-94 Indiana (8th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 4th in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 1st in DRTG, 2nd in TO forced)

93-94 Houston (2nd best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 1st in Opponent FG%, 7th in Opponent PPG, 6th in DRTG)

94-95 Cleveland (3rd best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 2nd in Opponent PPG, 4th in DRTG, 1st in TO forced)

94-95 Indiana (6th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 10th in Opponent FG%, 8th in Opponent PPG, 8th in DRTG, 8th in TO forced)

95-96 Chicago (1st best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 5th in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 1st in DRTG, 1st in TO forced)

96-97 Miami (1st best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 1st in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 1st in DRTG, 8th in TO forced)

97-98 Indiana (5th best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 5th in Opponent FG%, 7th in Opponent PPG, 8th in DRTG, 1st in TO forced)

98-99 Miami (8th best defense in the regular season, Alonzo Mourning DPOY) (Playoffs: 8th in Opponent FG%, 5th in Opponent PPG)

98-99 Atlanta (2nd best defense in the regular season) (Playoffs: 3rd in Opponent PPG, 4th in DRTG)

99-00 Miami (7th best defense in the regular season, Alonzo Mourning DPOY) (Playoffs: 3rd in Opponent FG%, 1st in Opponent PPG, 2nd in DRTG)

So, yes, he literally was facing top 5ish defenses in the playoffs almost every year. Certainly better than what Robinson was facing year in and year out in the Western Conference playoffs.

Also FWIW in comparing them as franchise players...Ewing lost a series as a higher seed 3 times (twice against Jordan). Robinson lost a series as a higher seed 5 times. Ewing won a series as a lower seed 6 times. Robinson won a series as a lower seed ZERO times. Ewing also has a better record in game 7's (and game 5's when the first round was best 2 out of 3), and close out games in general. None of that proves anything definitively of course, but it's an additional point to ponder when thinking about them in terms of "leaders" on teams that were expected to contend for championships. Basketball is not played in an excel spreadsheet and BPM and WS are not magic numbers that somehow refute claims where other pieces of evidence might lead us to a different conclusion.

Post #4 » by **penbeast0** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:18 pm

Re: Bob Pettit's defense. In my reading on his era, I haven't heard anyone either praising his defense or denigrating it. The adjectives they use to describe him imply a very high motor and effort guy generally ("relentless, driven" but on the other side you have him saying he was getting beat up inside in his first couple of years and described as a "consummate gentleman."

I generally assume he is a solid man defender and outstanding rebounder with good fundamentals but not a rim protector or enforcer type.

Post #5 » by **penbeast0** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:25 pm

AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Dwyane Wade
NOMINATE: Patrick Ewing
AltNom: Scottie Pippen

People have touched on how Barkley “should not” be too far separated from Karl Malone. People have touched on how Jokic “should not” be too far separation from Giannis. I have been somewhat silent on this because I think it is a dead horse topic, but for me, the “should not” separation most in play is Ewing and Robinson. I see Ewing as functionally quite similar to Robinson for career postseason value. Robinson had the higher regular season peak, was more “portable”, and played on a team that relied on him more, all of which have made him beloved in these circles, but in significant games against good opponents, I never felt Robinson did much to distinguish himself from Ewing in anything other than as a passer / team playmaker (which is important but at Robinson’s level was overstated by circumstance)....

I'd say the biggest differentiation between Robinson and Ewing isn't offensive at all, but defensive. Robinson, along with Hakeem (and Russell from the clips I've seen) was not only one of the great shotblockers, but very good at disrupting passes into the post. Ewing had quick hands and feet for a big but not quite as quick or as much anticipation.

HeartBreakKid · Post #6 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 5:56 pm

My vote is for Nikola Jokic - I believe he is the most dominant player here by a decent margin, even more over his contemporary Giannis. It was looking like we might not see an offensive player comparable to James but I think Jokic is that and then some. He stretches defenses, he knows how to get open, he can pass from everywhere on the court, he has no problems taking over and scoring on high volume. I love Jokic on the fast break as well, it's great how he turned one of his weaknesses (stamina) into a relative strength.

His main con is likely longevity which is not big on my criteria. However, I think in terms of longevity he is quite comparable to Giannis and Wade. Chuck has better longevity among the group but Chuck still has weak longevity for a player with a healthy and complete career (he didn't take care of himself that well, and kind of sand bagged a few seasons). I like Harden, but it took a while before his game saw some translation in the playoffs (he's the player here who I think has the best functional longevity).

Joker's defense has also increased. I thought at worst it was a Dirk Nowitzki situation. You certainly want your center to be a great defender, but Jokic is such an outlier on offense that I think it more than makes up for it.

Alternate vote is for Wade - Switching from Barkley to Dwyane Wade. I actually was going to vote for Giannis here (I've been convinced that he deserves a vote over Barkley). I did not notice Wade is now on the official nominees. I feel like Wade's ability as a combo guard may lead to him being able to consistently put his will on teams in the post season. He isn't a liability like Chucky is on defense as well. It's close between him and Giannis.

My nomination is for Kawhi Leonard - At two different points he was an awesome defender and an awesome scorer. His health and priorities never made them line up at least not for a long time, but I think his dominance as a scorer and defender depending on the year is truly special.

EDIT:

Will change my alternate vote from Walt Frazier to Patrick Ewing.

Alternate vote is for Patrick Ewing - I may have been a biased in Frazier vs Ewing in terms of winning the player who got rings. After thinking about it, it is hard to make a great, rational argument, for why Frazier may be more valuable than Ewing given they are roughly equal as players and Ewing played for longer. Perhaps Ewing even peaked higher given his 1990 season, though I am not big on outlier seasons.

old alternate nomination

Spoiler:

Post #7 » by **penbeast0** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:14 pm

Vote Jokic: Like Giannis, great peak, short duration, but enough to vote him in at this point for me. Harder to build around than Giannis with Giannis's superior defensive skills.

Alternate Pettit: Far from convinced that Pettit is the best here but I have a hard time voting for Barkley or Harden this high with all the baggage they bring. So, it comes down to Wade v. Pettit and Pettit was much more consistently outstanding though Wade probably peaked higher.

Nomination: Stockton: Similar to Steve Nash, better in set plays, less outstanding when required to improvise, equivalent shooter on near equivalent volume, far superior defender, strong durability edge. Issues with playoff performances are his biggest weakness as I don't think a player is automatically just a role player if he doesn't score 20 ppg.

Alternative Nomination: Ewing: Strong defender, team leader, scorer, good durability, some playoff failures. Much as I root against the Knicks (and all NY teams), he and Frazier are my next two picks in some order and open to listen to which order that should be.

HeartBreakKid · Post #8 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:25 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Vote Jokic: Like Giannis, great peak, short duration, but enough to vote him in at this point for me. Harder to build around than Giannis with Giannis's superior defensive skills.

Alternate Pettit: Far from convinced that Pettit is the best here but I have a hard time voting for Barkley or Harden this high with all the baggage they bring. So, it comes down to Wade v. Pettit and Pettit was much more consistently outstanding though Wade probably peaked higher.

Nomination: Stockton: Similar to Steve Nash, better in set plays, less outstanding when required to improvise, equivalent shooter on near equivalent volume, far superior defender, strong durability edge. Issues with playoff performances are his biggest weakness as I don't think a player is automatically just a role player if he doesn't score 20 ppg.

Alternative Nomination: Ewing: Strong defender, team leader, scorer, good durability, some playoff failures. Much as I root against the Knicks (and all NY teams), he and Frazier are my next two picks in some order and open to listen to which order that should be.

Do you have Ewing over Frazier for longevity or you think he was a better player as well?

Post #9 » by **penbeast0** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:30 pm

I think centers have a disproportionate impact for most of NBA history. I do think Frazier is better as a guard than Ewing was as a center. I have Clyde in the Steve Nash/John Stockton level for prime (with Stockton obviously the best of the 3 for durability/longevity), but I think that for the 20th century they actually played in, Ewing created more value.

AEnigma · Post #10 » by **AEnigma** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:31 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Dwyane Wade
NOMINATE: Patrick Ewing
AltNom: Scottie Pippen

People have touched on how Barkley “should not” be too far separated from Karl Malone. People have touched on how Jokic “should not” be too far separated from Giannis. I have been somewhat silent on this because I think it is a dead horse topic, but for me, the “should not” separation most in play is Ewing and Robinson. I see Ewing as functionally quite similar to Robinson for career postseason value. Robinson had the higher regular season peak, was more “portable”, and played on a team that relied on him more, all of which have made him beloved in these circles, but in significant games against good opponents, I never felt Robinson did much to distinguish himself from Ewing in anything other than as a passer / team playmaker (which is important but at Robinson’s level was overstated by circumstance)....

I'd say the biggest differentiation between Robinson and Ewing isn't offensive at all, but defensive. Robinson, along with Hakeem (and Russell from the clips I've seen) was not only one of the great shotblockers, but very good at disrupting passes into the post. Ewing had quick hands and feet for a big but not quite as quick or as much anticipation.

Agree Robinson was a superior athlete… and maybe in the sense of “anticipation” had superior reflexes, but I could in a different direction say I preferred Ewing’s anticipation in the sense of knowing where he should be.

I recall someone criticising Dwight Howard’s defensive intelligence last thread (or recently). I disagree with that pretty strongly, but Howard did a lot of the same things in that he was reactionary and relied on his physical advantages in ways that maybe were not optimal but were physically impressive. I see Robinson in much the same way, with Ewing being more of a Duncan figure. More limited, but also more controlled and careful. Again, I have never been overly impressed by Robinson’s playoff results when he did not have Duncan. That is not necessarily just because of Duncan; Robinson himself changed his approach as he aged in ways not wholly tied to also playing alongside another top tier defender. Ewing arrived at that point a lot earlier. Less flashy, but supremely effective. I would not confuse having all the tools for being a more effective defender with actually being more effective over a series.

Where this becomes messier is with hypotheticals and the effect of coaching. Ewing was most effective as a defender under Pat Riley, even though his athletic peak was earlier and I think he would have been outstanding had he connected with Riley then. Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Brown and Greg Popovich, but at his “peak” under a less defensive-minded coach, not so much.

I understand why Robinson is given the benefit of the doubt as someone who was more physically impressive and who we saw achieve high defensive success at different points in his career. But he did not have a defensive mind like Russell. He also did not have a mind like Draymond or Garnett. Nor would I say he had one like Hakeem, or Duncan (admittedly Duncan is deeply tied to Popovich). There are several others I likely trust over him too, although they are not yet relevant. He was an outstanding athlete, but there too, I would not say he utilised his athleticism as well as Russell or Hakeem, or in a more positional sense, Garnett. He had the tools to be a much better defender than Duncan (and to some extent we saw glipses of that when he became more of a specialist), but in the postseason I do not think he reached that level with any real consistency.

Ewing is a step down from all those names, but not by enough to be out of the discussion. He had some uninspiring results before Pat Riley, so maybe we can attribute the bulk of the change to Riley… but all the same, that change happened, and it constitutes the majority of Ewing’s career. Again, Robinson had more tools, but if he did not consistently make the best use of them, why would I excuse that or make him out to be something he generally was not. I cannot do the exercise I did with Hakeem and Robinson where I point out how much better Hakeem fared against common opponents (most notably the Jazz, but to a degree also the Suns and Blazers), both because of sample size (one series against Hakeem is the only commonality, with Drexler automatically providing a significant distinction) and because Ewing more demonstrably had better defensive support. I am accordingly not going to commit to Ewing having an absolute advantage; however, I am more adamant that the two are a lot closer than people tend to assume based on their visceral reactions to Robinson’s physicality. Ewing was smart and controlled. He played well against a lot of excellent offences, including strong pnr offences (albeit perhaps not quite to the extent of the Jazz). If we are going to praise Robinson’s highlights, we should also be able to acknowledge their limitations. We do it with Duncan and Howard; we should be able to do it for Ewing and Robinson as well.

Post #11 » by **penbeast0** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:35 pm

I have Ewing better in the dirty work parts of being an NBA post player. He held his ground better in the post, he punished people more with elbows/cheap shots/body blocks, he was stronger in the lower body. I have DRob as better in the long arms/quick hands parts of being a post man, better shotblocker, better at denying the entry pass, better lateral movement defensively.

I wish either one had stayed in the Washington area where they played college ball and played for the Bullets/Wizards.

AEnigma · Post #12 » by **AEnigma** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:41 pm

Generally agreed, but I also think Ewing — for his career on average — read plays better, and that matters quite a bit to me and I think is a significant factor in how Ewing’s teams tended to fare in the postseason. Maybe we attribute that to a disparity in coaching for their respective primes; either way, it was there and it happened, and while we can acknowledge the potential for something different, it is not just about potential.

Owly · Post #13 » by **Owly** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 6:46 pm

AEnigma wrote:[Robinson had his best defensive results under Larry Johnson

AEnigma · Post #14 » by **AEnigma** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:23 pm

Too much Knicks on the brain haha. Fixed.

Post #15 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:46 pm

Vote 1 - Charles Barkley
Vote 2 - Bob Pettit
Nomination 1 - John Stockton
Nomination 2 - Patrick Ewing

From '87-'94, Barkley was pretty much unstoppable:

25.1 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 SPG, .9 BPG, 63.2% TS, .58 FTr, .236 WS/48, 6.5 OBPM, 122 ORTG

His playoff production during that period dipped slightly in certain areas, but overall he was a great playoff performer:

26.1 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, .9 BPG, 58.4% TS, .481 FTr, .202 WS/48, 6.5 OBPM, 120 ORTG

'93 finals stats - https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/1993-nba-finals-bulls-vs-suns.html

As an undersized PF, Barkley was still one of the most efficient and dynamic volume scorers the game has ever seen. He used an uncanny combination of bulk and speed to beat larger defenders off the dribble, and finish above the rim. From '86-'92, he put up 24.7 PPG on a hyper efficient 64.4% TS (+10.7 rTS!) He scored on over 60% TS in each of those 7 seasons, leading the league in TS% for 4 years straight during that span. He has an absurd career TS Add of 2,972.8 and was never a negative in his 16 seasons.

Barkley's physicality early in his career was exemplary. He used sheer force to take over games, and it carried over into other areas in addition to scoring. He ranked 7th in the league in steals at 2.2 per game in only his 2nd year, extremely impressive for a 250+ pound player. A year later, Barkley led the league in boards at 14.6 per game. As a footnote to his career, he finished 2nd in RPG and TRB% at 35 years old.

It's important to note that every team Barkley was on immediately improved when he got there:

Philly
- '84: 52-30, 2.39 SRS
- '85: 58-24, 4.17 SRS (rookie year)

Phoenix
- '92: 53-29, 5.69 SRS
- '93: 62-20, 6.27 SRS (first year with the suns, taking them to the finals)

Houston
- '96: 48-34, 1.63 SRS
- '97: 57-25, 3.85 SRS (first year with the rockets)

While the suns finals appearance in '93 would be their best finish after acquiring Barkley, they had 3 straight seasons of 56+ wins in his 4 years there. One of the main culprits here was injuries to his best teammates. In Barkley's 4 years in PHX, Kevin Johnson only played in 49, 67, 47, and 56 games respectively. In 95-96, Barkley's last season in PHX, Danny Manning only played 33 games, and their 3rd leading scorer was a rookie Michael Finley.

I don't pay super close attention to career totals when it comes to the NBA, but this is impressive nonetheless: Barkley is 1 of 7 players in NBA history to post career totals of 20,000+ points, 10,000+ boards, and 4,000+ assists (Kareem, LeBron, Wilt, Karl Malone, Duncan, Garnett). I'd love to start voting for Giannis (now voted in) and Jokic, two of my favorite players but the longevity just isn't quite there for me yet. And yes I know they're getting closer and closer to Magic and Bird's very average longevity. I'll be considering them soon.

One_and_Done · Post #16 » by **One_and_Done** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:55 pm

Vote: Barkley
Alternate: Jokic (because Harden isn't getting traction)

Nominate: Ewing (because Kawhi lacks traction)
Alternate Kawhi

I'll be brief on Barkley, as I suspect he's going to roll through in a landslide. Barkley was a dominant and unique offensive force. We say that about about alot of players, but it's rarely true. There are basically a handful of guys in NBA history who are unique archetypes (Kareem, Magic, etc). Barkley is one of them. He doesn't get any bonus points for that fact, it's just important to note when considering his impact. One of the reasons he was so unstoppable on O was because of this unique player type. Too quick for bigs, too strong for smalls. I think we'd remember him alot differently if the Sixers hadn't messed up his career in 1 day with the ill fated trades of the #1 pick and Moses for basically nothing. Possibly the worst 24 hours of trades for a franchise ever.

Barkley's numbers are awesome, we all know it so I won't bother citing them here. Obviously he's held back a little by his D and his inability to power a team offense in the same way a Steve Nash or James Harden does. I think Barkley's dominance is a different type of dominance to them, and depending on what your team needs you might prefer Nash or Harden. On the whole though, I'd take Barkley. His game is more resilient in the playoffs than Harden, and Nash blossomed late in his career; you only get rated for what you actually did. I can see the argument for those 2 over him, Nash is in already obviously, but otherwise his weaknesses don't bother me. It's #26. All the guys left have some warts, or they'd have gone much higher. I don't care about his attitude at all, except to the degree he didn't keep in shape. Other than that it didn't seem to impact winning; he was much loved by his team mates for the most part. An annoyingly charismatic guy, even today. He's the guy you want to hate, but just can't.

Ranking the 5 options I'd go:

Barkley
Harden
Wade
Jokic (not enough longevity, in time he will probably finish above all these guy)

[Another 100 NBA power forwards]

[Top 100 Euroleague players of all time]

[Best 10 G-Leaguers of all-time]

Pettit

Pettit has no place on this list to me. He played in a weak 8 team era of barely professional basketball. The top Euroleague teams today would sweep the league Pettit won a title in. Pettit's skills don't translate to today, he's not enough of an outlier, and he is overrated even in his bygone era. The Hawks averaged 44 wins a year through his career, had a bunch of sub-500 seasons, missed the playoffs in his prime, and only won a title when Russell was injured. Terrible efficiency obviously.

The nominations probably deserve more discussion than the inductees. There's about 10 guys I want to nominate, and I'm having a tough time sifting between them other than Kawhi. Anthony Davis is better than any of the other names I've seen proffered. He was an actual MVP talent, who showed he could be the best player on a title team, and has sufficient longevity. Others include Gilmore, Pippen, Butler, Lillard, Clyde, Kidd, Embiid, Dwight, the Gasol brothers, maybe Paul George. There are alot of names to consider, some of whom I've missed no doubt. I'd take guys like Ray Allen or Paul Pierce over Stockton. They were closer to being the main guy, and MVP type talents, than Stockton ever was.

Overall though Kawhi is my first nomination. He's got far and away the best peak left, and I'd say on the whole he has 'sufficient' longevity to get up here. Especially given we have already nominated Giannis and Jokic. There's only really 3 healthy seasons where he was peak Kawhi (17, 19 and 20), but he was basically healthy for 8 of his first 9 seasons. His first few are elite role player seasons only, but I'd say his 2014 season was an unsung all-star quality year, and 2015 he was an all-nba type talent. 2016 he actually finished 2nd in the MVP vote. 2017 and 2019 I have him as clearly the best player in the league.

His insane stats blow anyone left out of the water:
2017-2023 RS p100: 37.4/9.7/6, 121 Ortg/106 Drtg, 608 TS%

2017-2023 PS p100: 38.6/11.1/5.9, 125 Ortg/107 Drtg, 635 TS%

His peak season is also insane. In 2017 he put up 39/9/5, 121/102 and 610 TS% in the RS, and a ridiculous 40/11/7, 136/110 and 672 TS% in the playoffs. I'm actually starting to believe he could have carried the Spurs to the title if not for Zaza injuring him. I don't hold that against him though, because he played enough playoff games. If I did, it would be rewarding guys who got eliminated in the 1st round and never had a chance to get injured as a result of a cheap play. If he had been injured due to recurring issues I'd get it, but a random injury like "this guy punched me and broke my jaw" doesn't count IMO. People are discussing Pippen, but Kawhi is better on O and D than Pippen and it's not terribly close. He's the best defensive wing ever, able to guard perimeter players, then turn around and shut down Giannis to some degree. He would make Paul George and Butler look helpless against him, and those are alpha males of the league, physical and veteran savvy. Kawhi would just punk them and take t
heir lunch money. Lebron hated Kawhi guarding him too. Sure, he can't be stopped because he's still Lebron, but Kawhi would drive him crazy. I remember Reddick on a podcast talking eloquently about his D, and being baffled how he could be so good. He described him as one of the only perimeter players he'd ever seen who genuinely made a difference turning the game on D.

I've talked about Gilmore, who I'm considering, and his case is below:

Spoiler:

I think it’s almost time to vote for Gilmore.

Unlike fellow MVP and 11 time-star Pettit, Gilmore led his team to a title in a much tougher league. The ABA in 1975 was probably stronger than the NBA. Gilmore has a skill set that would absolutely translate today. When I look at Gilmore, I see a guy who physically resembles a stronger, slightly shorter version of Kareem. His huge arms and relative fluidity would make him an excellent rim-roller, who in a pinch could score in other ways in and around the rim. His short jump shots and hook look surprisingly clean, even if I don’t know how often they went in.

It’s easy to look on youtube and find extensive footage of Artis dunking on Kareem and playing great against the showtime Lakers, on just horrible Chicago teams that clearly didn’t put anything much around him. There’s even a game of the NBA stars against the ABA stars, where Gilmore matches up very well physically with 1972 Wilt. If we were in the top 10 that would mean nothing, but we’re now nominating people who will be 30 or higher all-time.

Statistically, Gilmore compares favourably to say Moses, who is already in.

Moses per 100 from 1979-84: 31.6/18.2/2, 2 blks, 115 Ortg/103 Drtg, 578 TS%
Gilmore per 100 from 1975-79: 27.5/17.1/3.4, 3 blks, 113 Ortg/97 Drtg, 601 TS%

Yeh, Moses scores a bit more, because of a play style he wouldn’t be able to replicate today. Otherwise though I’m not seeing much difference between him and Gilmore, except Gilmore’s style would be even more valuable today, and his team mates and situation was in general far worse than Moses. Moses doesn’t even really have Gilmore beat on longevity. Gilmore played 1329 games and was an all-star still at age 36. Moses last all-star season was at age 33, and if we take away his completely irrelevant final 3 seasons he drops from 1455 games down to 1372 games, though I guess Gilmore’s last few seasons weren’t terribly relevant either. Moses has maybe more longevity, depending on how you look at it, because he started earlier. But it’s not enough to matter.

I am more impressed by Gilmore than I am with guys like Ewing or Stockton, the latter wasn’t even a real star. The former seems to be perpetually overrated. Gilmore wishes he had all the help Ewing did.

I've also discussed Stockton at length, and why I feel his nomination is completely inappropriate. We're in the MVP stage still, and Stockton was nowhere near that sort of player.

Spoiler:

On Reggie and Stockton more generally:

Spoiler:

On Harden vs Wade.

Spoiler:

trelos6 · Post #17 » by **trelos6** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:30 pm

VOTE: Harden

Postseason stats per 75 possessions
15-20 Harden (73 G): 28.2 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 turnovers, 58.6% TS
06-10 Kobe (79 G): 28.6 points, 5.2 assists, 3.2 turnovers, 57.0% TS

Say what you will about choking in playoffs, Harden’s stats show he was as valuable as Kobe in his prime. I hate how Harden plays the game, but I’m putting that aside.

His 5 year 15-19 RS run: 30.5 pp75, +6.2 rTS%, 14 FTA/100, team rOrtg from 5-6 in the last 3 years of that range.

Alternate: Jokic

Jokic has just come off what I have as the best single season of anyone not already inducted. What he lacks in longevity, he’s making up for in peak.

nominations, Scottie Pippen . Solid 6 years as a weak MVP. Also probably the best perimeter defender of all time.

Alternate nomination Ewing. Some great defensive seasons early, weak MVP value. Robust scoring arsenal.

One_and_Done · Post #18 » by **One_and_Done** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:31 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Re: Bob Pettit's defense. In my reading on his era, I haven't heard anyone either praising his defense or denigrating it. The adjectives they use to describe him imply a very high motor and effort guy generally ("relentless, driven" but on the other side you have him saying he was getting beat up inside in his first couple of years and described as a "consummate gentleman."

I generally assume he is a solid man defender and outstanding rebounder with good fundamentals but not a rim protector or enforcer type.

I'm sure he was relentless by the standard of a 1960s player. Looking at footage of him I doubt he'd be playable against elite offenses today.

Post #19 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:42 pm

Quoting my stuff pertaining to my 2nd nomination last time, looking for thought from others:

Doctor MJ wrote:Yeah, so I've been agonizing over this one. Makes sense given that this is where the the structure that narrows the field in Induction stops. It's the place to consider all of the players not yet Inducted or Nominated, and of course that's the vast majority of'em.

With Frazier, the pros and cons are clear. I think his prime was really damn strong, and I think he was the keystone of the Red Holzman Knicks more so than any other player. In comparison with contemporary rivals like John Havlicek, Rick Barry & Wes Unseld, I just think Frazier was better than any of them.

He didn't last all that long though, so there's a major question of whether longevity should favor someone else. To be honest, I kinda felt myself thinking that I should pick someone other than Frazier here...but I couldn't make myself anoint any particular guy.

I probably spent the most time considering Mr. Guard longevity John Stockton, and so that means that next time he might be the most likely for me to switch my vote to.

I'll tell you though, I'm really not sure about Stockton over Reggie Miller. I kinda think Reggie was the better playoff player and extreme longevity himself.

And then there's a guy I'm already soft-championing in Manu Ginobili. On a per minute basis, I'd definitely take Manu over Reggie (or Stockton). I'm seriously considering him over them.

I'd be remiss not to mention Scottie Pippen. I rank his prime play ahead of Stockton & Miller...but his career fell off abruptly somewhat like Frazier's did. It really doesn't seem right to me to favor Pippen over Frazier based on longevity. Feels like you have to prefer Pippen to Frazier, and I just don't. I think we see a gap in shooting ability that puts them in fundamentally different tiers as scorers, and I think Frazier stacks up pretty dang well in the rest of the game too.

That's me mentioning a lot of guys I could see possibly Nominating over Frazier, and there are others as well, but Frazier's the one still standing out most as I look at this right now.

70sFan · Post #20 » by **70sFan** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:47 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Re: Bob Pettit's defense. In my reading on his era, I haven't heard anyone either praising his defense or denigrating it. The adjectives they use to describe him imply a very high motor and effort guy generally ("relentless, driven" but on the other side you have him saying he was getting beat up inside in his first couple of years and described as a "consummate gentleman."

I generally assume he is a solid man defender and outstanding rebounder with good fundamentals but not a rim protector or enforcer type.

I'm sure he was relentless by the standard of a 1960s player. Looking at footage of him I doubt he'd be playable against elite offenses today.

What exactly makes you doubt?