RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Patrick Ewing)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Patrick Ewing) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:07 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
eminence
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
ljspeelman
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
One_and_Done
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):


Patrick Ewing
Image

Walt Frazier
Image

Bob Pettit
Image

Scottie Pippen
Image

John Stockton
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Fri Sep 29, 2023 5:22 pm

VOTE: Patrick Ewing
Alternate: Scottie Pippen
NOMINATE: Reggie Miller
AltNom: TBD
(most inclined toward Barry, Havlicek, or Gilmore)

I could be over-crediting Ewing for his role as the best player on a decade of playoff teams. I can picture Pippen doing similarly well given the opportunity. However, Ewing did it. He was expected to do it. He did it across changing teammates and decaying knees, and he did it against teams regularly spouting more talent than what he had next to him. His offensive impact is overstated by the Knicks relying on him as their lead scorer, but I am impressed all the same that he had the ability to shoulder that scoring load for so long, and I lament that so much of his career was spent on rosters kind-of necessitating he do so. In a previous thread I compared him to Robinson. Ewing never got his Duncan. He never even got his Drexler. The one year you might be able to argue he had a supporting cast that could compete for a title, he was devoured by maybe the highest peak centre in the history of the sport. Flawed player, but really impressive to me all the same.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#3 » by Rishkar » Fri Sep 29, 2023 5:38 pm

Induction Vote 1:Bob Pettit
Although many are talking about Pettit's drop in playoff production, I simply feel it isn't a large enough concern to warrant keeping him out of the top 30. We just inducted Harden, and we are comparing Pettit to Stockton and Ewing who weren't known as great playoff performers ever. You could make a very reasonable argument for Frazier or Pippen based on playoff performance, but as someone who weights the regular season more heavily than most in my player evaluations, Pettit seems like the only guy left out of these who was consistently the best player in the world. His POY shares are much higher than anyone else left, and he seems to not have many holes in his game. Good shooting touch, fantastic rebounder, decent defender, incredible foul drawer, and good passer, Bob Pettit was the first stretch 4.
Induction Vote 2:John Stockton
I prefer Frazier over Pippen and feel that Ewing was nominated too high, so this second spot is a close battle between Frazier and Stockton for me. Frazier peaked higher, was better realitive to his competition, and was a better postseason performer. He was a better defender than Stockton, (I have him as top 2 all time rivaled only by Kidd and I guess West if you call him a PG) and played more minutes than Stockton per game, while being a significantly better rebounder. With all that said, I don't think he overcomes the 650+ more games that Stockton added significant value in. Stockton's hard to evaluate because both box score data and impact stats overate him, and we have to use our judgement and understanding of context to figure out by how much. His colinearity with Malone makes it hard to seperate exactly how much he was worth through plus minus, his ironman status makes WOWY approaches unreliable, and his boxscore is elite but dips in the playoffs. Overall though, we have an elite passer, elite help defender, good man defender, good shooter, with decently low turnovers (more so if you account for how often he was passing), great intangibles, elite longevity (especially in comparison to other guards), and elite durability. I struggle to see a meaningful difference between the value of his career and Chris Paul's, who got voted in nine rounds ago. Paul is a significantly better scorer, potentially a better man defender, better free throw shooter, and commits less turnovers. Everything else goes to Stockton in my mind, and I see them as very comparable players.
Nomination Vote 1:Jason Kidd
Incredible defender and passer, held back by inneficent scoring. Great longevity and carried the Nets defense in a way few guards have ever anchored a defense (outside of 95-96 :lol: ).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#4 » by tsherkin » Fri Sep 29, 2023 6:05 pm

(Not a voting participant, just for the sake of quick clarity)

Lots of fun choices to focus on here.

Ewing - Decent rebounder. Solid offense for several years, especially pre-injury, not a particularly good core anchor or playoff performer. Absolutely monster on D. Anchored a Knicks squad that went to the Finals. Played like trash in the Finals, but helped get them there with mostly spare parts around him, and before the pulled-in 3pt line, no less. A really good reminder of why just mashing the ball into the post isn't a hot idea when the guy isn't a good passer, but also a pretty good face-up guy with an underrated 17-footer, no matter how often he traveled when he was in triple-threat xD Had his shoes when I was a young lad. No rings, no MVPs, never top 3 in the MVP vote.

Frazier - Rings from 70 and 73. Efficient scoring point. His relative efficiency tailed off through the mid-70s as his draw rate declined, but still strong through 77. Good passer. Very good guard rebounder. Excellent defender. Clutch. Playoff riser: 18.9 ppg on 49.0% FG in the RS, 20.7 ppg on 51.1% FG in the playoffs. 54.2% TS in the RS, 55.7% in the PS. Bunch of triple doubles in his day; led the league in his second season. Even in 75 in his last postseason appearance, going down to Houston, he was a monster.

Pettit - Have spoken of him at some length. Big-time scorer for his era. Did well into the mid-60s as things changed. Title, couple of MVPs, rebounding. Reasonably modern-style game (face-up big with a pull-up jumper, etc). His postseason performance has its holes, but we're well beyond near-perfect players at this point, everyone has flaws. Not a major defensive piece. Probably the best resume of anyone left, and main arguments against him are built around estimated advanced stats, a lot of which ignore the size of the league and the sample sizes of the playoff runs involved. His deep runs look like second-round appearances today, even his title run.

Pippen - Have discussed. Reasonable scorer when you let him get out in transition. Could draw fouls, not amazing at hitting his free throws, not a particularly good shooter, not a particularly high-end postseason scorer. But very smart, very much in tune with the triangle and what Phil wanted. Excellent team player. One of the best wing defenders I've seen. 94 did a lot for him, even if roster changes and stuff helped overcome the massive drop-off in offense from losing Michael. 95 wasn't a banner season but it set the stage for the second three-peat. Garbage postseason scorer during the second three-peat. Overall a very good player. More supporting cast than primary guy in my view, but an excellent player once he hit his prime.

Stockton - Big conversations about Stockton in many threads right now, so I need say little. Skilled dude who maximized what he could do. When he was younger, he was pretty north-south, excellent shooter on low volume, obviously a high-end structured playmaker. He, Malone and Sloan helped set the stage for later revolution in PnR frequency and evolution in the NBA. Extremely adept pocket passer, one of the best I've ever seen. Not a particularly impressive scorer, no real take-over scoring ability, so you need better scorers around him. Tough as hell, no quit in him. Iron man, just absurd longevity and durability. Very good player.



Were I officially participating, I'd be on the Hondo train as far as nominations. But also Billy Cunningham. We're talking about high-end defenders, and he was a 20/10/4 guy with a 6-year prime at 24/12/5 (peaking at 26.1 ppg). He went FROM the NBA to the ABA and won an MVP there in his first season in 73. Feature player on the title-winning 67 Sixers. Definitely a dude worth discussing in and around this range.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Fri Sep 29, 2023 10:11 pm

VOTE: John Stockton

For starters, I'm going to resurrect an old conversation (in spoiler). Short summary: dispells the myth that Utah's offense had tendency to fail in the playoffs. Not actually the case, weighted against strength of defenses faced. And it's worth noting that all of their most notable under-performances all occurred AFTER Stockton's injury and he was relegated to a more limited-minute role....

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:1990s Jazz offenses didn't struggle in postseason, this is a myth.


Is it?

Let's consider the 2 finals years.

In '96-97 the Jazz were the best non-Bulls ORtg in the regular season, thus in theory we should expect the Jazz ORtg to be the best among the Bulls' 4 opponents. Instead they were surpassed by both Washington (13th best RS ORtg) and Atlanta (8th).

In '97-98 the Jazz were literally the best ORtg in the regular season, and once again we should expect the Jazz ORtg to be the best among the Bulls' 4 opponents. Instead they posted the worst ORtg out of all the Bulls' opponents surpassed by Indiana (4th best in RS), New Jersey (5th), and Charlotte (11th).

We can debate whether those are apples-to-apples comparisons, but I'd say the struggle was real at least against the Bulls.


Citing results in TWO playoff series's [out of 24 total that they played in the 90's] is sort of cherry-picking, no?

Certainly they struggled against the Bulls in the post-season, but that hardly defines them as a post-season offense during the '90s.

I'll first cite Elgee's write-up on Malone for his top 40 project. If you scroll about 70% of the way down in the write-up, you come to a chart titled "5-Year Team Offenses", scrutinizing all of the shotclock era.
On it you see the 5-year stretch of '92-'96 Utah Jazz as being the *11th-best rs offense of [nearly] all-time in terms of rORTG (*one of the teams ahead of them did NOT make the playoffs all five years, fwiw), and the **13th-best ps offense in the shotclock era (*although THREE of the teams ahead of them did not make the playoffs all five years in this sample).
And their ps offense averaged out to notably BETTER THAN their rs offense during this span.

So I'll let Elgee's work stand on it's own for those five years and only look at the OTHER five years of the decade [relative to the defenses faced].....

90
They were a +2.1 rORTG in the playoffs (108.3 ORtg vs a 106.2 [6th/27] DRtg, 5 games)
Were a +2.2 rORTG [10th/27] in rs

91
1st round (4 games): +5.9 rORTG (112.0 ORtg vs 106.1 [8th/27] DRtg)
WCSF: +5.1 rORTG (109.4 ORtg vs 104.3 [3rd/27] DRtg)
Avg: +5.46 rORTG in playoffs (vs being a +0.7 rORTG [11th/27] in rs)

'97
1st round (3 games): +14.1 rORTG (121.7 ORtg vs 107.6 [16th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (5 games): +7.3 rORTG (111.0 ORtg vs 103.7 [8th/29] DRtg)
WCF (6 games): +8.8 rORTG (112.8 ORtg vs 104.0 [10th/29] DRtg)
Finals (6 games): +1.4 rORTG (103.8 ORtg vs 102.4 [4th/29] DRtg)
Avg: +7.0 rORTG (vs being a +6.9 rORTG [2nd] in rs)

'98
1st round (5 games): -4.9 rORTG (103.7 ORtg vs 108.6 [25th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (5 games): +2.4 rORTG (101.8 ORtg vs 99.4 [2nd/29] DRtg)
WCF (4 games): +12.4 rORTG (116.1 ORtg vs 103.7 [11th/29] DRtg)
Finals (6 games): -3.7 rORTG (96.1 ORtg vs 99.8 [3rd/29] DRtg)
Avg: +0.745 rORTG (vs being a +7.7 rORTG [1st] in rs)

'99
1st round (5 games): +0.1 rORTG (103.2 ORtg vs 103.1 [18th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (6 games): +2.2 rORTG (99.9 ORtg vs 97.7 [6th/29] DRtg)
Avg: +1.245 rORTG (vs being a +3.6 rORTG [tied 3rd] in rs)


So basically they substantially out-performed expectation in '91 and [collective, I haven't looked at individual years] in '92-'96, "held steady" in '90 and '97, and underperformed in '98 and '99 (fairly markedly so in '98). And where Stockton is concerned, it's perhaps noteworthy that the relevant drop-offs happened AFTER his injury when he became a somewhat limited-minute (<30 mpg) player.

Looking at all of this together, I would say the notion that they were playoff under-achievers in the '90s is at best a half-truth (even "half-truth" is being to generous to the narrative, imo).



As some bullet-point additional arguments.....
He's 6th all-time in career rs WS, the best of anyone still on the table; next closest (more than 16 WS behind in 11th place [and coming in weaker league environment]) is Artis Gilmore, followed by Reggie Miller another 15+ WS behind Gilmore.

He's 3rd all-time [or since 1973] in career rs VORP, again the best of anyone still on the table; next closest (more than 33 VORP behind in 20th place) is Jason Kidd.

Empty stats, surely.
Except his AuPM/RAPM are very consistent with this box-based metrics, even though we're missing most of his prime.

He's best of who's left in my era-weighted and longevity-adjusted CORP figures, too. That's just my opinion, though. However, fwiw, I never once ranked a season of his as high as a full "Weak MVP", and the scoring I assigned to "All-NBA" or "All-Star" are not overly generous either.


Alternate vote: Patrick Ewing
The only one even a little close to Stockton on my ATL.


Nomination: Elgin Baylor
Alt nom: Jason Kidd
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#6 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Sep 29, 2023 11:19 pm

My vote is for Bob Pettit - I have him and Barkley pretty close to each other. I can't really think of many bad things to say about Pettit, but I can think of a few things to say about Barkley.

I think Bob shared his career with some real titans just as Chuck did and more than held his own, just like Chuck did. I have very little doubt about Pettit's playing ability, and while he isn't the hyper efficient scoring beast chuck is, I do think he is the type of guy that can do what is needed when it is called.

Alternate vote is for Patrick Ewing - Very close between him and Bob, I could be swayed to give Patrick the #1 vote. Chuck is right up there with them but my gut feeling tells me the other two were better.


My nomination is for Kawhi Leonard - At two different points he was an awesome defender and an awesome scorer. His health and priorities never made them line up at least not for a long time, but I think his dominance as a scorer and defender depending on the year is truly special.

My alternate nomination is for Anthony Davis
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#7 » by Samurai » Fri Sep 29, 2023 11:30 pm

Vote for #30: Bob Pettit. Same reasoning as from previous posts. I do not care about science fiction time machines whisking Pettit to 1923, 2023 or 2123. Yes, his era was the weakest of the candidates currently eligible, which is why I am considering him now rather than in the top 20. He was a 2-time MVP and 10-time All NBA First Team and Second Team once. I will also concede that I never saw him play live and I am not comfortable voting for a player I never saw play. But his adaptability is extremely impressive to me. His first season was 1955 and Neil Johnston was the big star then (a broken-down Mikan came out of retirement to play 37 games in 56). But by 1964, Pettit's second to last season, he was competing against the likes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, Baylor, Lucas and Havlicek. The league strength was much higher in 1964 than 1955 and yet Pettit was still All NBA First Team in 64. He was the bridge from the Mikan era to the Russell/Wilt/Oscar/West era and he was elite in both eras. He doesn't strike me as a flashy player at all, just a tenacious motor guy with solid fundamentals who can do whatever was needed.

Alternate vote: John Stockton. I acknowledge that Stockton's peak wasn't as high as some other nominees. But his longevity and consistency are offsetting factors for me. Stockton's consistency is just incredible; finishing in the top 10 in assists for nine straight seasons would be highly impressive but leading the league in assist % for 14 out of 16 seasons is near impossible to wrap my head around. Especially when you have guys like prime Magic Johnson running around at the beginning of that streak and Jason Kidd during the latter part of that streak. Throw in 8 seasons in the top 5 in TS % and his 5 seasons on the All Defensive 2nd team just becomes the cherry on top.

Nomination: John Havlicek. GOAT-level stamina and motor. Four time All NBA First Team and seven time All NBA Second team. Eight time champion and Finals MVP in 74. Great all-around swing man who was an all star as both a guard and a forward, he could score (finished in the top 20 in ppg 11 times; as high as 2nd in 71), pass (finished in the top 20 in assists/game 11 times; as high as 4th in 72), and defend (five time All NBA Defensive First Team and three time All NBA Defensive Second Team). Hondo was a terrific athlete - played baseball in college (hitting over .400 as a freshman), in 1962 he was drafted by both the Celtics and the NFL's Cleveland Browns. Former coach Rick Weitzman called Havlicek the best natural athlete he ever came into contact with. Teammate Dave Cowens was convinced that Hondo could have also excelled at track, particularly the 800 meters. Teammate Satch Sanders marvelled at how Hondo could just run forever without sweating or getting tired. Sanders told him "You're gifted as an athlete. But don't be looking at everyone else and expecting them to run with you. Because that's not going to happen!"

Alternate Nomination: Jason Kidd. Outside of great shooting, could pretty much do whatever else you needed from a guard. Elite defense and rebounding for his position. Led the league three times in assists/game and trails only Stockton in total career assists, as much a testament to his outstanding longevity as well as his passing skills. Finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times. Rookie of the year in 95, All NBA First Team 5 times as well as another year on the All NBA Second Team and nine times on the All NBA Defensive Team (4 times on the First Team and 5 times Second Team). And he did improve his 3-point shooting over the second half of his career, currently 15th in most career 3-pointers made and was 11th in 3-point % in 2010 at the age of 36. Won a ring in 2011 and his 43 three's during the championship run were an important contribution to the title.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#8 » by f4p » Sat Sep 30, 2023 6:25 am

this is a weird part of the project. with hakeem in 6th and harden inside the top 30, my watch is ended, so to speak. at first glance, none of the nominees feel like they should be in the top 30, but at the same time, i'm at a loss for who should take their place. i suppose the mvp alphas are about the furthest i've ever really thought about actual specific rankings for players. i might think this guy or that guy belongs in the top 40 or the top 50, but actually putting a spot on it, i've never really gotten to that point.

pettit has probably the clearest era relative case. i've always respected that ewing had to be a lone star in a brutal media market with michael jordan in his way. pippen has some alpha bona fides from 1994 but i'm still usually loathe to put #2's up there with the guys who had to withstand the spotlight for years and years. stockton actually does fairly well by the box score, certainly the longevity stuff like career VORP and WS, and even if i don't fully believe his late-career RAPM, it's not crazy to talk about him here, even if i'm not sure top 20 malone and top 30 stockton can really stand up to scrutiny with their team accomplishments. on clyde, i have to say seeing him #31 in the last project (or maybe 30th) was surprising. not so much because it was wrong but because i didn't think he was that type of player but had never really thought about it before. the knicks feel too ensemble-y for me to really buy his case, and his first good playoffs are at age 23 and his last meaningful playoffs is at 28 so that's rough on the longevity front, but the numbers do look really good and obviously they won 2. even by the box*longevity metric that has been predicting the project pretty well, if you say he should have won 1 of the FMVP's, he would be 39th so this wouldn't be a huge outlier (not a small outlier either).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#9 » by trelos6 » Sat Sep 30, 2023 9:16 am

Looking at the greatest peaks project last year.

21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier

He’s only 38th, but for me, Pippen’s peak was just as good as Ewing, and he held that peak for a few more years.

By virtue of his position, Ewing’s defense is more valuable. And Ewing was certainly a top 10 defensive C of all time. Pippen of course, being the greatest wing defender of all time gets close, but overall, Ewing has the advantage on D.

On offense, Ewing was tasked to score, and did so reasonably well, 25 pp75 on +3 ish rTS%. In the playoffs, he lost his efficiency, but still scored more or less 25 pp75 on league average efficiency.

Pippen as the second banana was a high teens scorer on around league average efficiency. In the playoffs, he got that up to almost 20 on +2%.

Where Pippen excels, and separates himself in my eyes is the playmaking aspect. He had a passer rating of around 7, peaking at 7.8. He was also a tremendous stealer of the ball.

Overall, my personal rankings say it isn’t close. Pippen with 6 weak MVP level seasons, Ewing with 3. They both had 8 all NBA level seasons, and comparable all D and All-Star level seasons. If you’re not as high on Pippen’s peak, it might bring him back into a close debate vs Ewing, but I still have him ahead. Scoring and overall defensive impact slight edge to Ewing, Passing and creation big edge to Pippen.

Vote: Pippen
Alt vote: Ewing

Nomination: Kawhi Leonard. Probably best peak of remaining players. 5 all NBA, 8 all star campaigns is a bit short vs others, but I think his peak makes up for it.

Alt Nom: Havlicek. I have him a bit lower, but if you can get to a few weak MVP level seasons in the early 70’s, he definitely belongs.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:48 am

Vote: Stockton: Similar to Steve Nash offensively, better in structured offense, less outstanding when required to improvise, equivalent shooter on near equivalent volume, far superior defender, strong durability edge. Issues with playoff performances and a lack of rings are his biggest weakness.

Alternative Ewing: Strong defender, team leader, scorer, good durability, some playoff failures. Much as I root against the Knicks (and all NY teams), his excellent defense gives him extra value over the better offensive players like Barkley, Harden, and even Pettit. And, he could be a valuable 2nd or 3rd option where the great scorers frequently lose a lot of their value if asked to dial back their scoring to help the team.


Listening to arguments of nominees with both Frazier and Pippen in the voting list.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Sat Sep 30, 2023 3:34 pm

f4p wrote:this is a weird part of the project. with hakeem in 6th and harden inside the top 30, my watch is ended, so to speak. at first glance, none of the nominees feel like they should be in the top 30, but at the same time, i'm at a loss for who should take their place. i suppose the mvp alphas are about the furthest i've ever really thought about actual specific rankings for players. i might think this guy or that guy belongs in the top 40 or the top 50, but actually putting a spot on it, i've never really gotten to that point.


Well, we [or at least I] will miss your participation.

Regarding this approach, I suspect it's common, and it perhaps leads to the philosophical differences where some wouldn't give differing approaches [such as CORP-based, or similar] the time of day.......because it requires a complete rewire of their thinking on player ranking.
But as you've noted: if starting from the standpoint of looking only at "MVP alphas", you eventually run out of those players as you get further down the list. So then what? Either one drops out of the project because they have no more to offer [feel "at a loss", as you said, for what to do]; or alternately, they begin a completely new criteria to rank who's left (which could be sort of like changing the rules in the middle of the game: one wouldn't necessarily have the same criteria for ranking players from start to finish).
How big a problem a LACK of internal consistency is to your process I suppose is subjective. Though imo, a process that involves literally moving of the goal-posts somewhere around the midway point should be viewed as a problem on some level.

I've got a list [needs updating] that goes well out into the 300's; and I wanted a process that was consistent and could be applied to ALL: from the LeBron's and Jordan's down to the Otis Birdsong's, Jack Marin's, Dick McGuire's of the game.

Therein is the beauty [imo] of a cumulative [though longevity-calibrated] value approach, of some sort.


f4p wrote:stockton actually does fairly well by the box score, certainly the longevity stuff like career VORP and WS, and even if i don't fully believe his late-career RAPM, it's not crazy to talk about him here, even if i'm not sure top 20 malone and top 30 stockton can really stand up to scrutiny with their team accomplishments. .


I don't know about the bolded (though people state similar sentiment often; but I just disagree).

I mean, they were the 2nd-best team of a DECADE, and perhaps clearly so; this in a very competitive era, trailing only one of the greatest sports dynasties of all-time. Looking at the overall breakdown of the 90's:

*They failed to win at least 50 games (at least 53, actually [pro-rating '99]) just ONCE (where they went 47-35). They won 60+ games FOUR TIMES (2nd to only the Bulls).

**ON AVERAGE, they won 56.57 games per season......for a decade (is barely 2nd to the Bulls for the decade, who avg 56.63 wins/season; 3rd-best were the Sonics with 52.70 wins/season, then 4th is the Suns at 52.03 wins/season). Seattle is the ONLY other team to not have a losing record at least once in the decade (though they had THREE seasons of .500).

***The Jazz AVERAGE SRS in the 90's was +5.28 (more or less contender-level, or close to it). That's 2nd to only Chicago's +5.59. 3rd is a bigger drop-off to Seattle at +4.70 (followed by an equally large gap to Phoenix at 4th with +4.12).

***Obviously, that put them in the playoffs all 10 seasons (Suns and Knicks were the only other teams of the decade to do so).

****They made it past the 1st round SEVEN times (3rd to only Chicago and New York in the decade).

*****They made it [at least] as far as the Conference Finals FIVE times in the decade (2nd to only Chicago).

******They have TWO teams inside the top-65 of Sansterre's 100 Greatest Teams (2nd to only Chicago in the decade), one of them in the top 35. They rate as the 7th and 10th-best teams of the entire decade.
That 10th-best team of the decade came with a fairly weak bench (but the trio of Malone/Stockton/Hornacek was just so strong it carried to this level). fwiw, a weak bench (or weak from 4/5 thru 12) was a common occurrence throughout the late 80s and first half of the 90s, too. Some years they had a weak(ish) 3rd-best player. Mark Eaton was a defensive beast, but he was also an offensive liability. Frank Layden himself called Eaton an "empty uniform" on offense, and said that they were "basically playing 4 against 5 on offense" anytime Eaton was on the court.
The team rated 7th-best of the decade (35th of all-time) fell in the WCF in 7 games [though outscoring their opponent by nearly 3 ppg in the series, fwiw] to a team that is rated the 12th-best of the decade (75th-best of all-time). Though even if the Jazz had won that series, they'd have found themselves up against the #1 team of the decade (#2 of all-time) in the Finals.
That 10th-best team of the decade DID make it to the Finals, but there faced the team rated 4th-best of the decade (14th of all-time), and fell in six games.

*******They made it to the NBA finals twice overall (tied with Houston and New York for 2nd in the decade). And save for a couple terrible shotclock calls [which wouldn't even be allowed to happen today], they may have been the WINNERS of the '98 Finals.
In as much as you lamented "Chris Paul's ****ing hamstring", one could lament "****ing shotclock calls". It's no different.
And would anyone think this would not "stand up to scrutiny" then? I doubt it.
Again, as much as people may say rings don't matter to them, they do.


This is to say nothing of additional respectable success they had in late 80s and early 00s (winning record and playoffs every year they were together).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#12 » by homecourtloss » Sat Sep 30, 2023 4:51 pm

trelos6 wrote:
Spoiler:
Looking at the greatest peaks project last year.

21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier

He’s only 38th, but for me, Pippen’s peak was just as good as Ewing, and he held that peak for a few more years.

By virtue of his position, Ewing’s defense is more valuable. And Ewing was certainly a top 10 defensive C of all time. Pippen of course, being the greatest wing defender of all time gets close, but overall, Ewing has the advantage on D.

On offense, Ewing was tasked to score, and did so reasonably well, 25 pp75 on +3 ish rTS%. In the playoffs, he lost his efficiency, but still scored more or less 25 pp75 on league average efficiency.

Pippen as the second banana was a high teens scorer on around league average efficiency. In the playoffs, he got that up to almost 20 on +2%.

Where Pippen excels, and separates himself in my eyes is the playmaking aspect. He had a passer rating of around 7, peaking at 7.8. He was also a tremendous stealer of the ball.

Overall, my personal rankings say it isn’t close. Pippen with 6 weak MVP level seasons, Ewing with 3. They both had 8 all NBA level seasons, and comparable all D and All-Star level seasons. If you’re not as high on Pippen’s peak, it might bring him back into a close debate vs Ewing, but I still have him ahead. Scoring and overall defensive impact slight edge to Ewing, Passing and creation big edge to Pippen.

Vote: Pippen
Alt vote: Ewing

Nomination: Kawhi Leonard. Probably best peak of remaining players. 5 all NBA, 8 all star campaigns is a bit short vs others, but I think his peak makes up for it.

Alt Nom: Havlicek. I have him a bit lower, but if you can get to a few weak MVP level seasons in the early 70’s, he definitely belongs


I have many of the sentiments as above.

VOTE: Scottie Pippen
Alt Vote: Patrick Ewing
Nomination: Reggie Miller


The most common knock against Pippen is that he couldn’t be a #1 on a title team, but for me, 1994 and 1995 showed that he could given the right circumstances as he’s not at the level of the few who could bring almost any team to contention.

The 1994 Bulls with Pippen were a contending team and in many ways outplayed the eventual finalist that lost a 50-50 Finals that it easily could have one had Ewing played a little bit better. This was WITH a replacement level player in Myers playing significant minutes and this was WITH Pippen and Grant missing the most gsmes they ever had up to thst point. Replace Myers with any type of plus player and the Bulls, even with injuries to Grant and Pippen, could win 60+ games. As it is, their defense improved even though they added largely non-defensive players and a young Kucoc who would improve tremendously in the next few years and had a very good playoffs,

When both Pippen and Grant were in the lineup they posted a regular season srs of 4.7, aka, a 55-win pace:
Pippen’s non-Jordan seasons were particularly impressive because of the overall heights of the team. In ’94, the Bulls played at a 55-win pace when healthy (4.7 SRS).

In the playoffs they played like a +8 team, boosting their srs from +4.7 to +5 for the season. Aka, a 58-win pace. Then without Grant(who would see the Magic jump from first-round outs to finalists), the Bulls won at a 52-win pace:
In 1995, with key cog Horace Grant lost to Orlando (and Ron Harper aboard), a healthy Bulls team still played at a 52-win pace (3.8 SRS) with an rORtg of +1.1 before Michael Jordan returned.


Pippen’s playmaking has been underrated by many. This is a reason why the 1994 Bulls were so effective offensively vs. the Cavs AND Knicks.

Look at how well the 1994 Bulls performed offensively in the two playoff series. The 1994 series against the Cavs see the bulls have their fourth highest relative offensive rating for a series from playoff series played between 1985 and 1998. The offense against the all-time great 1994 Knicks defense held up admirably well and actually did better than what the 1992 and 1996 juggernaut Chicago teams did.

Bulls’ rORtg in playoff series

1991 vs. Pistons, +17.0
1992 vs. Heat, +15.8
1996 vs. Heat, +15.2
1994 vs. Cavs, +13.6
1993 vs. Knicks, +12.7
1997 vs. Hawks, +12.6
1998 vs. Pacers, +12.6
1996 vs. Magic, +11.9
1991 vs. Sixers, +10.8
1993 vs. Hawks, +10.8
1998 vs. Nets, +10.8
1997 vs. Bullets, +10.8
1991 vs. Lakers, +10.7
1993 vs. Cavs, +10.4
1990 vs. Bucks, +10.0
1996 vs. Sonics, +9.2
1991 vs. Knicks, +8.8
1994 vs. Knicks, +8.5
1989 vs. Knicks, +8.3
1990 vs. Sixers, +8.3
1992 vs. Knicks, +7.0

1996 vs. Knicks, +1.7

Only negative ones
1989 vs. Pistons, -1.6
1990 vs. Pistons, -2.1
1988 vs. Pistons, -9.5


This was in large part to the playmaking of Pippen as well as the overall genius of Phil Jackson.

1995 gets lost but Pippen showed he very well could be a #1.

Image

Image

Pippen’s RWoWY numbers compare favorably with whom he’s being compared with here and even more so if you look at the actual numbers in the dataset.

Moonbeam wrote:And the 90s Bulls:

Image


Moonbeam wrote:
Image


Moonbeam wrote:
- St. Louis Hawks
Key players: Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagan, Lenny Wilkens, Clyde Lovellette, Zelmo Beaty, Lou Hudson

Image


I actually had a really tough time choosing between Patrick Ewing and Scottie Pippen. If you give Patrick Ewing even slightly better office of talent between 1992 and 1994, there is a very reasonable chance that his Knicks could win two titles and defeat, the Jordan bulls, at least once which they should’ve been able to do anyway, have you in Player just a little bit better.

Then there’s John Stockton. There’s no denying his impact profile, especially his late career impact profile as an older point guard, which are some of the most remarkable numbers in NBA history, but I cannot envision a team that is competing for titles with Stockton as the clear-cut best player, which for me puts him behind someone like Scottie Pippen or like Patrick Ewing , even though Stockton’s career CORP translated odds might give them a better chance
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#13 » by falcolombardi » Sun Oct 1, 2023 2:39 am

Had a longer vote typed out and accidentally deleted, sucks

Anyway

My main vote comes down to ewing vs pippen for me

To me pippen had a year as a main lead in 94 comparable to the best ewing years but doesnt have the same sample size carrying the load and spotlight (on and off court) than ewing did

Leadership also goes slightly to ewing for similar reasons,for whereas pippem was by all accounts a great locker room presence and the "good cop" to balance jordan more bully-ish bad cop role, he also let some off ball concerns impact the game at times which ewing doesnt have despite arguably leading a team in the league most hostile market east side to philadelphia. So intangibles are a small edge for patrick

Translation in the moderm game, imo,goes to scottie. Point forwards who can score in volume, lead a break and pass while handling the ball in 6'8 frame are the queen in the modern game chessboard, even more so than two way bigs (who held this role for most of the league history)

Where pippen offensive and defensive profile has gained luster (i truly believe he could be even more valuable today if allowed to be a 4/5 in D like a draymond lite who happens to be a legit ball handler and volume scorer) ewing has lost a bit as post up isolation (specially with ewing isolation tunnel vision issues) and inside rim protection are a bit less impactful in a spaced league

Ewing while a good shooter and skilled iso scorer had serious predictability issues in offense wherr it sometimes seemed he had decided what he would do before even catching the ball and scanning the defense.

While this funnily seemed to catch defense off guard at times who could be confused thinking ewing had just caught them in the left foot with quick offense, it was a weakness better defenders exploited as hakeem famously exemplified in his 94 dismantling of ewing which was easily more cruel than the famous robinson one a year later

No shame in struggling a bit with tje dream defense but the degree to which ewing was invalidated was concerning. Which is why i think pippen offense belongs in a higher tier despite ewing more impressive scoring profile while the defensive gap may shrink a bit in mpre mñdern game

Ultinately however i cannot weight my theories about pippen higher ceiling more than the actual sample size of ewing as a team lead

Vote ewing

Alternate pippen

Nomination:
reggie miller, all time tier offensive results elevated by his incredible playoff scoring
Portability is near perfect offensively and has great longevity.

Alt nom: kawhi, easily the best prime/peak i cam thinl of yet to be voted outside of the venerable bill walton who obviously has much bigger longevity issues. Longevity and average prime play in the same tier as the already voted giannis and jokic
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#14 » by tsherkin » Sun Oct 1, 2023 8:25 pm

falcolombardi wrote:Had a longer vote typed out and accidentally deleted, sucks


If you hit "preview" every so often, it's usually accessible tothat point by hitting the BACK button in your browser. Or on longer posts, I'll sometimes use Notepad. Deleted posts suuuuck.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#15 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sun Oct 1, 2023 8:57 pm

tsherkin wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Had a longer vote typed out and accidentally deleted, sucks


If you hit "preview" every so often, it's usually accessible tothat point by hitting the BACK button in your browser. Or on longer posts, I'll sometimes use Notepad. Deleted posts suuuuck.


Big brain move
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#16 » by penbeast0 » Sun Oct 1, 2023 9:32 pm

I'm not seeing Kawhi as this individually dominant guy who can carry a team. I see him as a great part of an ensemble group but his great defense and best offense were not at the same time and there's no point in his career where I thought of him as the league MVP. To be fair, others rate him higher and he's finished 2nd and 3rd in MVP votes in 16 and 17.

He still may be appropriate here in the category of a Walt Frazier though Frazier impressed me more.

Nominate: Reggie Miller -- consistent, outstanding playoff performer, longevity
Alternate: Artis Gilmore -- unlike Kawhi, I can't see prime Artis playing on a bad team, he was too good, even if used mainly as a defensive anchor as he was up to 74.

Kawhi was definitely in my mix of people to consider though.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Sun Oct 1, 2023 9:32 pm

tsherkin wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Had a longer vote typed out and accidentally deleted, sucks


If you hit "preview" every so often, it's usually accessible tothat point by hitting the BACK button in your browser. Or on longer posts, I'll sometimes use Notepad. Deleted posts suuuuck.


If I'm worried I've been writing a post so long that the site thinks I've gone inactive [and logged me out] before I've hit "submit", I'll often select the entire post and "copy" before I hit "submit". Then if I find I have indeed been logged out, I can login anew, "paste" my post into a new reply.

Additionally, I've found that if I hit "submit" only to learn I've been logged out (and didn't think to copy the post), often simply hitting the back-arrow of your browser will take you back to your post (still constructed): this gives you another chance to "copy" it, login again....
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#18 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Oct 1, 2023 10:59 pm

Vote 1 - Bob Pettit
Vote 2 - John Stockton
Nomination 1- Rick Barry
Nomination 2 - John Havlicek


I think Pettit deserves recognition is this range for an impressive overall career, decent longevity relative to era and creating the blueprint for later PFs. The first two things that stick out are his incredible FT rate and TS Add for that time (career .481 and 1,758 respectively, career highs .536 and 250.6 in ’59). In the ’58 finals yes Russell missed 2 games, but you can only play who’s in front of you and Pettit stepped up. In the game 6 championship win he put up 50 points (19-34 FG, 12-15 FT), 19 boards and scored 18 of the Hawks’ final 21 to close out the game. Russell did play 20 minutes in that game.

Stockton's the poster boy for all time great longevity and durability. When you play that long you're going to have some missteps along the way, but the late career impact data certainly bolsters his case. Yes there are other players still on the table who significantly contributed to winning titles, but it's still a team accomplishment. I get not everyone subscribes to total career value, but it's hard to argue against stockton at this point if you do.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#19 » by OhayoKD » Mon Oct 2, 2023 3:50 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:Had a longer vote typed out and accidentally deleted, sucks


If you hit "preview" every so often, it's usually accessible tothat point by hitting the BACK button in your browser. Or on longer posts, I'll sometimes use Notepad. Deleted posts suuuuck.


Big brain move

I too use notepad
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #30 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/2/23) 

Post#20 » by MyUniBroDavis » Mon Oct 2, 2023 4:02 am

OhayoKD wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
If you hit "preview" every so often, it's usually accessible tothat point by hitting the BACK button in your browser. Or on longer posts, I'll sometimes use Notepad. Deleted posts suuuuck.


Big brain move

I too use notepad

Big brain move no longer

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