RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Bob Pettit)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Bob Pettit) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Oct 2, 2023 2:22 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
eminence
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
ljspeelman
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
One_and_Done
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Walt Frazier
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Reggie Miller
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Bob Pettit
Image

Scottie Pippen
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John Stockton
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#2 » by falcolombardi » Mon Oct 2, 2023 2:49 pm

My temptative vote is reggie miller followed by pippen, with arguments to make fot stockton longevity or pettit era relative peak as my alt over scottie

Got a full 32 hour shift tpday so prolly wont make the in depth post until tomorrow or wednesday tho
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#3 » by Clyde Frazier » Mon Oct 2, 2023 3:12 pm

I feel a little bad not having a chance to give Ewing a nice writeup lol... but cool to see him just make the top 30. Props to this board for being able to look past the surface level knocks against him and appreciate what he was able to do given the context of those rosters. Subconsciously he might be the reason I value longevity so highly. It was an arduous responsibility to take on year after year as the face of the franchise, not to mention the toll it took on him physically.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#4 » by Djoker » Mon Oct 2, 2023 3:23 pm

I'm not an official participant here but relative to league, Pettit is easily the best player here as a 2x MVP and best player on a title team. It's still a little bit too early for Reggie IMHO.

Glad to see Walt Frazier nominated. He gets criminally underrated by a lot of modern fans.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Mon Oct 2, 2023 5:09 pm

Transplanted from last thread, as players are still on the table here.....

OhayoKD wrote:
1. Pippen


A. Skillset

-> excellent creator, even when we limit creation to passing:
While he was a phenomenal finisher and transition player, Pippen’s best offensive attribute was his passing. By my estimates, he dolled out “good” or “great” passes on about 3 plays per 100, which, for comparison, was slightly behind John Stockton’s rate.

-> unlike Stockton, he also broke defenses down as a penetrator with a legitimate scoring threat



Few things I wanted to respond to in here, for counterpoint (sometimes merely commenting on semantics, as that can nonetheless influence others)......


While I won't argue he wasn't a very very good creator, I think the quote gives the suggestion that he's barely behind Stockton, which I'm not sure I'd agree with. He's behind in "good to great" passes by a little (~1 per 200 possessions according to Ben); but he's also FAR behind in Ben's total creation rate (like the only a little over half Stockton's rate in the '96-'98 sample shown, and more like only a third Stockton's creation rate from '91-'93), while his scoring meanwhile is not THAT much higher (on far lesser efficiency).
Even in the playoff sample that Ben shows ['95-'97, NOT one of the best groupings of playoff performance for Stockton, according to the box, btw], his playoff creation rates still FAR outpace even the better of the two samples of Pippen.

I won't argue that Pippen wasn't MORE effective breaking down defenses with penetration, though the wording/semantics make it sound as though Stockton was utterly incapable of it. For the years we have shot-tracking data for, it's worth noting that Stockton took a LARGER proportion of his attempts (and an equalish number per 100 possessions) at the rim compared to Pippen, while converting a marginally higher %.
Utah liked that backpick play with Malone passing from the elbow; but surely they can't all be from that. Ben, in the very source your citing, makes note of his attacking/finishing in transition (which, due to age, was likely lesser in the years we actually have tracking data).

Overall, Pippen averaged +3.0 pts/100 possessions for full careers, about +5 for respective primes (depending on which years you designate), and +7.0 for peak value........but while trailing Stockton by around 7% in respective rTS in any/all samples (and again: lower overall creation rates and worse turnover economy, too).

This isn't to say Pippen wasn't a good offensive player, he very obviously was. But again, I speak to semantics which seem to try to suggest he's the [perhaps obvious] superior offensive player between them ("look at all these things he can do that Stockton can't" type of statements).
We can debate the margin, sure; but I think it's clear who the better all-around offensive player was.



OhayoKD wrote:-> unlike Stockton, led good offenses without the best offensive players of the 90's


Did he?

In the ~1.8 seasons he led the Bulls without Jordan, their offense was entirely average (-0.2 rORTG in '94, and barely +1 prior to Jordan's return in '95).

+3.2 rORTG in '99 [low league avg, fwiw], but was he truly the "leader" of that offense? And was he without great offensive players? Barkley and Olajuwon are both past their prime, but still [obviously] very very good NBA players. Barkley actually has the best ORAPM in the league that year, too.

And fwiw, since the "can't buy Malone top 20 and Stockton top 30 [which we're already past] based on team success" has been levied [not by you, I don't think]........even if two of them are past their prime, does the achievement of the '99 Rockets hold up to scrutiny if they did indeed have two top-30 players PLUS a top-10?: pro-rated ~51 wins, though with middle-of-the-pack +1.39 SRS, and a first round exit.


Then in '00, I'm again a little leery of saying he "led" that offense (+3.8, again low league avg); seemed more like an ensemble or "by committee" offensive effort. Pippen was 2nd in apg, 4th ppg, 5th in orpg, but 1st in topg, and only 8th in TS% among the 10 Blazers getting regular playing time. He's an important cog, surely; but I just have a hard time saying he "led" that offense.

I'll try to come back later with a deeper-dive post on the Stockton's offenses.


OhayoKD wrote:Also unlike Stockton was arguably the best ever non-big defensively, coordinating teammates as a floor-general,


No argument from me here.
However, just adding the plug that while Stockton could not be defined in ^^these terms, he was consistently a positive impact defender.

This while [imo, as per above] being the better offensive player of the two (Backpicks gives him a higher O peak, too, I note), being effective in the league for longer [longer prime, too], and while missing less time over the course of his career.

In in Backpicks own season-valuations, fwiw, Stockton has career 133% Title Odds, vs 126% for Pippen (despite him seeming [even relative to compliment/criticism he provides for each] more bullish on Pippen than he is on Stockton). Personally, my own CORP-ratings don't have them so close [even though I rate Pippen as having peaked higher].


It's no open/shut case for Pippen (and that's putting it mildly).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Mon Oct 2, 2023 5:14 pm

VOTE: John Stockton

For starters, I'm going to resurrect an old conversation (in spoiler). Short summary: dispells the myth that Utah's offense had tendency to fail in the playoffs. Not actually the case, weighted against strength of defenses faced. And it's worth noting that all of their most notable under-performances all occurred AFTER Stockton's injury and he was relegated to a more limited-minute role....

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:1990s Jazz offenses didn't struggle in postseason, this is a myth.


Is it?

Let's consider the 2 finals years.

In '96-97 the Jazz were the best non-Bulls ORtg in the regular season, thus in theory we should expect the Jazz ORtg to be the best among the Bulls' 4 opponents. Instead they were surpassed by both Washington (13th best RS ORtg) and Atlanta (8th).

In '97-98 the Jazz were literally the best ORtg in the regular season, and once again we should expect the Jazz ORtg to be the best among the Bulls' 4 opponents. Instead they posted the worst ORtg out of all the Bulls' opponents surpassed by Indiana (4th best in RS), New Jersey (5th), and Charlotte (11th).

We can debate whether those are apples-to-apples comparisons, but I'd say the struggle was real at least against the Bulls.


Citing results in TWO playoff series's [out of 24 total that they played in the 90's] is sort of cherry-picking, no?

Certainly they struggled against the Bulls in the post-season, but that hardly defines them as a post-season offense during the '90s.

I'll first cite Elgee's write-up on Malone for his top 40 project. If you scroll about 70% of the way down in the write-up, you come to a chart titled "5-Year Team Offenses", scrutinizing all of the shotclock era.
On it you see the 5-year stretch of '92-'96 Utah Jazz as being the *11th-best rs offense of [nearly] all-time in terms of rORTG (*one of the teams ahead of them did NOT make the playoffs all five years, fwiw), and the **13th-best ps offense in the shotclock era (*although THREE of the teams ahead of them did not make the playoffs all five years in this sample).
And their ps offense averaged out to notably BETTER THAN their rs offense during this span.

So I'll let Elgee's work stand on it's own for those five years and only look at the OTHER five years of the decade [relative to the defenses faced].....

90
They were a +2.1 rORTG in the playoffs (108.3 ORtg vs a 106.2 [6th/27] DRtg, 5 games)
Were a +2.2 rORTG [10th/27] in rs

91
1st round (4 games): +5.9 rORTG (112.0 ORtg vs 106.1 [8th/27] DRtg)
WCSF: +5.1 rORTG (109.4 ORtg vs 104.3 [3rd/27] DRtg)
Avg: +5.46 rORTG in playoffs (vs being a +0.7 rORTG [11th/27] in rs)

'97
1st round (3 games): +14.1 rORTG (121.7 ORtg vs 107.6 [16th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (5 games): +7.3 rORTG (111.0 ORtg vs 103.7 [8th/29] DRtg)
WCF (6 games): +8.8 rORTG (112.8 ORtg vs 104.0 [10th/29] DRtg)
Finals (6 games): +1.4 rORTG (103.8 ORtg vs 102.4 [4th/29] DRtg)
Avg: +7.0 rORTG (vs being a +6.9 rORTG [2nd] in rs)

'98
1st round (5 games): -4.9 rORTG (103.7 ORtg vs 108.6 [25th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (5 games): +2.4 rORTG (101.8 ORtg vs 99.4 [2nd/29] DRtg)
WCF (4 games): +12.4 rORTG (116.1 ORtg vs 103.7 [11th/29] DRtg)
Finals (6 games): -3.7 rORTG (96.1 ORtg vs 99.8 [3rd/29] DRtg)
Avg: +0.745 rORTG (vs being a +7.7 rORTG [1st] in rs)

'99
1st round (5 games): +0.1 rORTG (103.2 ORtg vs 103.1 [18th/29] DRtg)
WCSF (6 games): +2.2 rORTG (99.9 ORtg vs 97.7 [6th/29] DRtg)
Avg: +1.245 rORTG (vs being a +3.6 rORTG [tied 3rd] in rs)


So basically they substantially out-performed expectation in '91 and [collective, I haven't looked at individual years] in '92-'96, "held steady" in '90 and '97, and underperformed in '98 and '99 (fairly markedly so in '98). And where Stockton is concerned, it's perhaps noteworthy that the relevant drop-offs happened AFTER his injury when he became a somewhat limited-minute (<30 mpg) player.

Looking at all of this together, I would say the notion that they were playoff under-achievers in the '90s is at best a half-truth (even "half-truth" is being to generous to the narrative, imo).



As some bullet-point additional arguments.....
He's 6th all-time in career rs WS, the best of anyone still on the table; next closest (more than 16 WS behind in 11th place [and coming in weaker league environment]) is Artis Gilmore, followed by Reggie Miller another 15+ WS behind Gilmore.

He's 3rd all-time [or since 1973] in career rs VORP, again the best of anyone still on the table; next closest (more than 33 VORP behind in 20th place) is Jason Kidd.

Empty stats, surely.
Except his AuPM/RAPM are very consistent with this box-based metrics, even though we're missing most of his prime.

He's best of who's left in my era-weighted and longevity-adjusted CORP figures, too. That's just my opinion, though. However, fwiw, I never once ranked a season of his as high as a full "Weak MVP", and the scoring I assigned to "All-NBA" or "All-Star" are not overly generous either.

Also see above post #5 [vs Pippen] for further argumentation, as well as the below discussion from last thread:

Spoiler:
trex_8063 wrote:
f4p wrote:this is a weird part of the project. with hakeem in 6th and harden inside the top 30, my watch is ended, so to speak. at first glance, none of the nominees feel like they should be in the top 30, but at the same time, i'm at a loss for who should take their place. i suppose the mvp alphas are about the furthest i've ever really thought about actual specific rankings for players. i might think this guy or that guy belongs in the top 40 or the top 50, but actually putting a spot on it, i've never really gotten to that point.


Well, we [or at least I] will miss your participation.

Regarding this approach, I suspect it's common, and it perhaps leads to the philosophical differences where some wouldn't give differing approaches [such as CORP-based, or similar] the time of day.......because it requires a complete rewire of their thinking on player ranking.
But as you've noted: if starting from the standpoint of looking only at "MVP alphas", you eventually run out of those players as you get further down the list. So then what? Either one drops out of the project because they have no more to offer [feel "at a loss", as you said, for what to do]; or alternately, they begin a completely new criteria to rank who's left (which could be sort of like changing the rules in the middle of the game: one wouldn't necessarily have the same criteria for ranking players from start to finish).
How big a problem a LACK of internal consistency is to your process I suppose is subjective. Though imo, a process that involves literally moving of the goal-posts somewhere around the midway point should be viewed as a problem on some level.

I've got a list [needs updating] that goes well out into the 300's; and I wanted a process that was consistent and could be applied to ALL: from the LeBron's and Jordan's down to the Otis Birdsong's, Jack Marin's, Dick McGuire's of the game.

Therein is the beauty [imo] of a cumulative [though longevity-calibrated] value approach, of some sort.


f4p wrote:stockton actually does fairly well by the box score, certainly the longevity stuff like career VORP and WS, and even if i don't fully believe his late-career RAPM, it's not crazy to talk about him here, even if i'm not sure top 20 malone and top 30 stockton can really stand up to scrutiny with their team accomplishments. .


I don't know about the bolded (though people state similar sentiment often; but I just disagree).

I mean, they were the 2nd-best team of a DECADE, and perhaps clearly so; this in a very competitive era, trailing only one of the greatest sports dynasties of all-time. Looking at the overall breakdown of the 90's:

*They failed to win at least 50 games (at least 53, actually [pro-rating '99]) just ONCE (where they went 47-35). They won 60+ games FOUR TIMES (2nd to only the Bulls).

**ON AVERAGE, they won 56.57 games per season......for a decade (is barely 2nd to the Bulls for the decade, who avg 56.63 wins/season; 3rd-best were the Sonics with 52.70 wins/season, then 4th is the Suns at 52.03 wins/season). Seattle is the ONLY other team to not have a losing record at least once in the decade (though they had THREE seasons of .500).

***The Jazz AVERAGE SRS in the 90's was +5.28 (more or less contender-level, or close to it). That's 2nd to only Chicago's +5.59. 3rd is a bigger drop-off to Seattle at +4.70 (followed by an equally large gap to Phoenix at 4th with +4.12).

***Obviously, that put them in the playoffs all 10 seasons (Suns and Knicks were the only other teams of the decade to do so).

****They made it past the 1st round SEVEN times (3rd to only Chicago and New York in the decade).

*****They made it [at least] as far as the Conference Finals FIVE times in the decade (2nd to only Chicago).

******They have TWO teams inside the top-65 of Sansterre's 100 Greatest Teams (2nd to only Chicago in the decade), one of them in the top 35. They rate as the 7th and 10th-best teams of the entire decade.
That 10th-best team of the decade came with a fairly weak bench (but the trio of Malone/Stockton/Hornacek was just so strong it carried to this level). fwiw, a weak bench (or weak from 4/5 thru 12) was a common occurrence throughout the late 80s and first half of the 90s, too. Some years they had a weak(ish) 3rd-best player. Mark Eaton was a defensive beast, but he was also an offensive liability. Frank Layden himself called Eaton an "empty uniform" on offense, and said that they were "basically playing 4 against 5 on offense" anytime Eaton was on the court.
The team rated 7th-best of the decade (35th of all-time) fell in the WCF in 7 games [though outscoring their opponent by nearly 3 ppg in the series, fwiw] to a team that is rated the 12th-best of the decade (75th-best of all-time). Though even if the Jazz had won that series, they'd have found themselves up against the #1 team of the decade (#2 of all-time) in the Finals.
That 10th-best team of the decade DID make it to the Finals, but there faced the team rated 4th-best of the decade (14th of all-time), and fell in six games.

*******They made it to the NBA finals twice overall (tied with Houston and New York for 2nd in the decade). And save for a couple terrible shotclock calls [which wouldn't even be allowed to happen today], they may have been the WINNERS of the '98 Finals.
In as much as you lamented "Chris Paul's ****ing hamstring", one could lament "****ing shotclock calls". It's no different.
And would anyone think this would not "stand up to scrutiny" then? I doubt it.
Again, as much as people may say rings don't matter to them, they do.


This is to say nothing of additional respectable success they had in late 80s and early 00s (winning record and playoffs every year they were together).



Will try to bring in discussion of Jazz offenses soon.


Alternate vote: Bob Pettit


Nomination: Elgin Baylor
Alt nom: Jason Kidd


Will try to engineering some discussion about these two later as well. To much to do.....
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#7 » by Samurai » Mon Oct 2, 2023 6:27 pm

Repeating from previous round:

Vote for #31: Bob Pettit. Same reasoning as from previous posts. I do not care about science fiction time machines whisking Pettit to 1923, 2023 or 2123. Yes, his era was the weakest of the candidates currently eligible, which is why I am considering him now rather than in the top 20. He was a 2-time MVP and 10-time All NBA First Team and Second Team once. I will also concede that I never saw him play live and I am not comfortable voting for a player I never saw play. But his adaptability is extremely impressive to me. His first season was 1955 and Neil Johnston was the big star then (a broken-down Mikan came out of retirement to play 37 games in 56). But by 1964, Pettit's second to last season, he was competing against the likes of Wilt, Russell, Oscar, West, Baylor, Lucas and Havlicek. The league strength was much higher in 1964 than 1955 and yet Pettit was still All NBA First Team in 64. He was the bridge from the Mikan era to the Russell/Wilt/Oscar/West era and he was elite in both eras. He doesn't strike me as a flashy player at all, just a tenacious motor guy with solid fundamentals who can do whatever was needed.

Alternate vote: John Stockton. I acknowledge that Stockton's peak wasn't as high as some other nominees. But his longevity and consistency are offsetting factors for me. Stockton's consistency is just incredible; finishing in the top 10 in assists for nine straight seasons would be highly impressive but leading the league in assist % for 14 out of 16 seasons is near impossible to wrap my head around. Especially when you have guys like prime Magic Johnson running around at the beginning of that streak and Jason Kidd during the latter part of that streak. Throw in 8 seasons in the top 5 in TS % and his 5 seasons on the All Defensive 2nd team just becomes the cherry on top.

Nomination: John Havlicek. GOAT-level stamina and motor. Four time All NBA First Team and seven time All NBA Second team. Eight time champion and Finals MVP in 74. Great all-around swing man who was an all star as both a guard and a forward, he could score (finished in the top 20 in ppg 11 times; as high as 2nd in 71), pass (finished in the top 20 in assists/game 11 times; as high as 4th in 72), and defend (five time All NBA Defensive First Team and three time All NBA Defensive Second Team). Hondo was a terrific athlete - played baseball in college (hitting over .400 as a freshman), in 1962 he was drafted by both the Celtics and the NFL's Cleveland Browns. Former coach Rick Weitzman called Havlicek the best natural athlete he ever came into contact with. Teammate Dave Cowens was convinced that Hondo could have also excelled at track, particularly the 800 meters. Teammate Satch Sanders marvelled at how Hondo could just run forever without sweating or getting tired. Sanders told him "You're gifted as an athlete. But don't be looking at everyone else and expecting them to run with you. Because that's not going to happen!"

Alternate Nomination: Jason Kidd. Outside of great shooting, could pretty much do whatever else you needed from a guard. Elite defense and rebounding for his position. Led the league three times in assists/game and trails only Stockton in total career assists, as much a testament to his outstanding longevity as well as his passing skills. Finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times. Rookie of the year in 95, All NBA First Team 5 times as well as another year on the All NBA Second Team and nine times on the All NBA Defensive Team (4 times on the First Team and 5 times Second Team). And he did improve his 3-point shooting over the second half of his career, currently 15th in most career 3-pointers made and was 11th in 3-point % in 2010 at the age of 36. Won a ring in 2011 and his 43 three's during the championship run were an important contribution to the title.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#8 » by AEnigma » Mon Oct 2, 2023 7:05 pm

VOTE: Scottie Pippen
NOMINATE: John Havlicek

For voting, Pippen is my only serious consideration here (tier break after him). I understand the arguments for Pettit, but I do not find his era peak notable despite the MVPs (grade it lower than Barry’s peak and only a bit higher than Schayes’s peak), nor do I think his title is too distinctly impressive in its full context (yes, all credit for the clinching fourth quarter) relative to the other non-Mikan/Russell titles of that era. I am willing to vote him over Miller for his peak, accomplishments, and era status, but I cannot get there with Pippen.

Havlicek has the easiest case for longevity and playoff reliability. Pippen comparisons are fair although I do not think his postseason scoring outpaces Pippen’s defensive advantages, and I do not think his longevity outpaces the value I give to Pippen’s prime. Barry has some questions and unfortunately lost value via missed postseasons (contract ban in 1968, injury in 1969, inability to cover for Thurmond’s absence in 1974, narrow misses in 1978…), so even though I prefer his peak and prime, he has enough uncertainty that I am willing to side with Havlicek. Similar story with Gilmore.

Kidd and Pierce are interesting comparisons with Havlicek. Havlicek stood out a little more in his time and has substantially more title equity, so will side with him, but I see both Kidd and Pierce as serious discussion candidates as well.

I prefer to reward Kawhi for his efforts in the peaks project. In his star prime, he has one year where he stayed in the postseason past Game 1 of the conference finals. Injury there in 2017, missed all of 2018, Finals MVP, second-round choke in 2020, injury four games into the second round in 2021, missed all of 2022, injury two games into the first round in 2023. Phenomenal player, and therefore always worth the gamble (as the Raptors showed), but too unreliable for a top 35 career ranking with several major longevity players still off the board.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#9 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon Oct 2, 2023 7:33 pm

My vote is for Bob Pettit - I have him and Barkley pretty close to each other. I can't really think of many bad things to say about Pettit, but I can think of a few things to say about Barkley.

I think Bob shared his career with some real titans just as Chuck did and more than held his own, just like Chuck did. I have very little doubt about Pettit's playing ability, and while he isn't the hyper efficient scoring beast chuck is, I do think he is the type of guy that can do what is needed when it is called.

Alternate vote is for Walt Frazier


My nomination is for Kawhi Leonard - At two different points he was an awesome defender and an awesome scorer. His health and priorities never made them line up at least not for a long time, but I think his dominance as a scorer and defender depending on the year is truly special.



Alternate nomination is for Anthony Davis
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#10 » by trelos6 » Mon Oct 2, 2023 7:41 pm

Spoiler:
Looking at the greatest peaks project last year.

21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier

He’s only 38th, but for me, Pippen’s peak was just as good as Ewing, and he held that peak for a few more years.

By virtue of his position, Ewing’s defense is more valuable. And Ewing was certainly a top 10 defensive C of all time. Pippen of course, being the greatest wing defender of all time gets close, but overall, Ewing has the advantage on D.

On offense, Ewing was tasked to score, and did so reasonably well, 25 pp75 on +3 ish rTS%. In the playoffs, he lost his efficiency, but still scored more or less 25 pp75 on league average efficiency.

Pippen as the second banana was a high teens scorer on around league average efficiency. In the playoffs, he got that up to almost 20 on +2%.

Where Pippen excels, and separates himself in my eyes is the playmaking aspect. He had a passer rating of around 7, peaking at 7.8. He was also a tremendous stealer of the ball.

Overall, my personal rankings say it isn’t close. Pippen with 6 weak MVP level seasons, Ewing with 3. They both had 8 all NBA level seasons, and comparable all D and All-Star level seasons. If you’re not as high on Pippen’s peak, it might bring him back into a close debate vs Ewing, but I still have him ahead. Scoring and overall defensive impact slight edge to Ewing, Passing and creation big edge to Pippen.


My argument for Pippen is the same.

vote: Pippen

alt vote. Frazier. Outlined Frazier v Stockton below. It’s close.

Spoiler:
Walt vs Stockton

Walt Frazier
Weak MVP Seasons (4): 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973
All NBA Seasons (3): 1969, 1974, 1975
All Star Seasons (1): 1976
All D level: 7 seasons

John Stockton
All NBA Seasons (9): 1988-1996
All Star Seasons (5): 1997-2001
All D level: 10 seasons

So what we have here are 2 very good defensive guards, with Frazier having the edge in peak, and Stockton the edge in longevity.

Frazier's peak was 18.8 pp75 +7.2 rTS%, although his 6 year stretch is 17.4 pp75 on +3.9 rTS%. He played well in the playoffs, with a 3 year peak of 20.4 pp75 on +8.4 rTS%. Stockton's 6 year stretch is 16.6 pp75 on +7.3 rTS%. With his best 3 year stretch producing 17.9 pp75 on +6.1 rTS%.

Stockton also has the clear edge in creation metrics, posting superior creation and passer rating numbers.

It's really a toss up, with my slight edge to Frazier as I think he achieved a higher peak, but I can probably be persuaded either way.


Nomination: Kawhi Leonard. Probably best peak of remaining players. 5 all NBA, 8 all star campaigns is a bit short vs others, but I think his peak makes up for it.

Alt Nom: Havlicek. I have him a bit lower, but if you can get to a few weak MVP level seasons in the early 70’s, he definitely belongs.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#11 » by lessthanjake » Mon Oct 2, 2023 8:15 pm

Vote for #31: Bob Pettit
Alternate Vote: Scottie Pippen
Nomination: Kawhi Leonard
Alternate Nomination: Rick Barry

Basically, relative to the league he was in, Bob Pettit is the top choice here IMO. I discount him a good bit because of the era he played in, but still, the fact remains that he was actually a two-time MVP and champion as his team’s top player (though Cliff Hagan was maybe as good or better in those playoffs, to be fair). That’s just on a higher plane of achievement relative to his era than these other guys IMO.

Scottie Pippen is my alternate vote. I’m not convinced he was a better player than Miller or Stockton. But team achievement matters to me, and he obviously has it. What has me a bit stumped here is that I’m not convinced that the Bulls minus Jordan were better teams than the Pacers with Miller, and yet Reggie didn’t really do worse with those teams (and, if anything, did better). And I do think Reggie would translate even better to today’s game, though I don’t care all that much about that. Ultimately, though, one guy is just more significant to the history of the game.

As for Kawhi and Barry as my nomination votes, I’ve explained those before and will just generally refer back to that.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#12 » by homecourtloss » Tue Oct 3, 2023 1:09 am

homecourtloss wrote:
trelos6 wrote:
Spoiler:
Looking at the greatest peaks project last year.

21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier

He’s only 38th, but for me, Pippen’s peak was just as good as Ewing, and he held that peak for a few more years.

By virtue of his position, Ewing’s defense is more valuable. And Ewing was certainly a top 10 defensive C of all time. Pippen of course, being the greatest wing defender of all time gets close, but overall, Ewing has the advantage on D.

On offense, Ewing was tasked to score, and did so reasonably well, 25 pp75 on +3 ish rTS%. In the playoffs, he lost his efficiency, but still scored more or less 25 pp75 on league average efficiency.

Pippen as the second banana was a high teens scorer on around league average efficiency. In the playoffs, he got that up to almost 20 on +2%.

Where Pippen excels, and separates himself in my eyes is the playmaking aspect. He had a passer rating of around 7, peaking at 7.8. He was also a tremendous stealer of the ball.

Overall, my personal rankings say it isn’t close. Pippen with 6 weak MVP level seasons, Ewing with 3. They both had 8 all NBA level seasons, and comparable all D and All-Star level seasons. If you’re not as high on Pippen’s peak, it might bring him back into a close debate vs Ewing, but I still have him ahead. Scoring and overall defensive impact slight edge to Ewing, Passing and creation big edge to Pippen.

Vote: Pippen
Alt vote: Ewing

Nomination: Kawhi Leonard. Probably best peak of remaining players. 5 all NBA, 8 all star campaigns is a bit short vs others, but I think his peak makes up for it.

Alt Nom: Havlicek. I have him a bit lower, but if you can get to a few weak MVP level seasons in the early 70’s, he definitely belongs


I have many of the sentiments as above.

VOTE: Scottie Pippen
Nomination: John Havlicek
Alt Nomination: Draymond Green


The most common knock against Pippen is that he couldn’t be a #1 on a title team, but for me, 1994 and 1995 showed that he could given the right circumstances as he’s not at the level of the few who could bring almost any team to contention.

The 1994 Bulls with Pippen were a contending team and in many ways outplayed the eventual finalist that lost a 50-50 Finals that it easily could have one had Ewing played a little bit better. This was WITH a replacement level player in Myers playing significant minutes and this was WITH Pippen and Grant missing the most gsmes they ever had up to thst point. Replace Myers with any type of plus player and the Bulls, even with injuries to Grant and Pippen, could win 60+ games. As it is, their defense improved even though they added largely non-defensive players and a young Kucoc who would improve tremendously in the next few years and had a very good playoffs,

When both Pippen and Grant were in the lineup they posted a regular season srs of 4.7, aka, a 55-win pace:
Pippen’s non-Jordan seasons were particularly impressive because of the overall heights of the team. In ’94, the Bulls played at a 55-win pace when healthy (4.7 SRS).

In the playoffs they played like a +8 team, boosting their srs from +4.7 to +5 for the season. Aka, a 58-win pace. Then without Grant(who would see the Magic jump from first-round outs to finalists), the Bulls won at a 52-win pace:
In 1995, with key cog Horace Grant lost to Orlando (and Ron Harper aboard), a healthy Bulls team still played at a 52-win pace (3.8 SRS) with an rORtg of +1.1 before Michael Jordan returned.


Pippen’s playmaking has been underrated by many. This is a reason why the 1994 Bulls were so effective offensively vs. the Cavs AND Knicks.

Look at how well the 1994 Bulls performed offensively in the two playoff series. The 1994 series against the Cavs see the bulls have their fourth highest relative offensive rating for a series from playoff series played between 1985 and 1998. The offense against the all-time great 1994 Knicks defense held up admirably well and actually did better than what the 1992 and 1996 juggernaut Chicago teams did.

Bulls’ rORtg in playoff series

1991 vs. Pistons, +17.0
1992 vs. Heat, +15.8
1996 vs. Heat, +15.2
1994 vs. Cavs, +13.6
1993 vs. Knicks, +12.7
1997 vs. Hawks, +12.6
1998 vs. Pacers, +12.6
1996 vs. Magic, +11.9
1991 vs. Sixers, +10.8
1993 vs. Hawks, +10.8
1998 vs. Nets, +10.8
1997 vs. Bullets, +10.8
1991 vs. Lakers, +10.7
1993 vs. Cavs, +10.4
1990 vs. Bucks, +10.0
1996 vs. Sonics, +9.2
1991 vs. Knicks, +8.8
1994 vs. Knicks, +8.5
1989 vs. Knicks, +8.3
1990 vs. Sixers, +8.3
1992 vs. Knicks, +7.0

1996 vs. Knicks, +1.7

Only negative ones
1989 vs. Pistons, -1.6
1990 vs. Pistons, -2.1
1988 vs. Pistons, -9.5


This was in large part to the playmaking of Pippen as well as the overall genius of Phil Jackson.

1995 gets lost but Pippen showed he very well could be a #1.

Image

Image

Pippen’s RWoWY numbers compare favorably with whom he’s being compared with here and even more so if you look at the actual numbers in the dataset.

Moonbeam wrote:And the 90s Bulls:

Image


Moonbeam wrote:
Image


Moonbeam wrote:
- St. Louis Hawks
Key players: Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagan, Lenny Wilkens, Clyde Lovellette, Zelmo Beaty, Lou Hudson

Image


I actually had a really tough time choosing between Patrick Ewing and Scottie Pippen. If you give Patrick Ewing even slightly better office of talent between 1992 and 1994, there is a very reasonable chance that his Knicks could win two titles and defeat, the Jordan bulls, at least once which they should’ve been able to do anyway, have you in Player just a little bit better.

Then there’s John Stockton. There’s no denying his impact profile, especially his late career impact profile as an older point guard, which are some of the most remarkable numbers in NBA history, but I cannot envision a team that is competing for titles with Stockton as the clear-cut best player, which for me puts him behind someone like Scottie Pippen or like Patrick Ewing , even though Stockton’s career CORP translated odds might give them a better chance
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#13 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Oct 3, 2023 3:21 am

Missed a vote. Glad it didn’t affect anything. Gonna get in early this time.

Vote: John Stockton
3rd all-time in VORP with impact stats that greatly outpace his box stats in years where they’re available.

Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.

Nominate: Kawhi Leonard
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time AND arguably the best playoff scorer of all-time at peak. 2-time Finals MVP.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#14 » by tsherkin » Tue Oct 3, 2023 3:33 am

iggymcfrack wrote:Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.

[/quote]

Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#15 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Oct 3, 2023 4:04 am

tsherkin wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.


Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.


Pippen: 6-4 in playoff series in 6 years without Jordan
Jordan: 0-3 in playoff series in 5 years without Pippen
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#16 » by OhayoKD » Tue Oct 3, 2023 5:16 am

tsherkin wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.



Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.

Otoh, those other losses weren't really "prime" and the 4 in chicago came to a team that was an all-time choke short of a title.

I think the more pressing point is that Petit is playing better era-relative teams on average due to size of the league
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#17 » by Rishkar » Tue Oct 3, 2023 5:29 am

I don't see Pippen as anywhere near my ballot yet as a basketball player, but I am curious whether it's outside the scope of this project to consider his infamous low salary when comparing him to someone like Walt Frazier. Frazier was making only 30,000$ less than league leader Pete Maravich in his prime, whereas Pippen was making Luc Longley (and this was a huge driver of the Bull's success). I give Duncan bonus points for winning the 2014 championship through his paycut (as Trex has mentioned a lot in this project), as well as letting the Spurs get his replacements in Aldridge and Leanord. So far, I haven't really used that same logic elsewhere though but I'm starting to wonder if Pippen and Stockton having favorable contracts might be a factor worth looking at. I'd appreciate other people's thoughts on this, it feels weird to judge a basketball player as being better for having a lower salary but it also really impacts winning and I don't see a Bulls dynasty happening without Pippen's contract situation.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#18 » by OhayoKD » Tue Oct 3, 2023 5:51 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.


Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.


Pippen: 6-4 in playoff series in 6 years without Jordan
Jordan: 0-3 in playoff series in 5 years without Pippen

I don't think we should count series where Pippen wasn't a starter
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#19 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Oct 3, 2023 6:05 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Alternate: Scottie Pippen
Arguably the best wing defender of all-time and won 6 rings. 33-10 all-time in playoff series compared to 10-9 for Pettit.


Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.


Pippen: 6-4 in playoff series in 6 years without Jordan
Jordan: 0-3 in playoff series in 5 years without Pippen


I am confused by this. The 6-4 is presumably the Bulls' 1994 playoff record, but then what is the 'in 6 years' part about? And the 6-4 implies that the 0-3 is a record of playoff games Jordan played without Pippen, but there was only ever one playoff game that Jordan played without Pippen from 1987 onward.

I feel like things are getting mixed up here. I think the 0-3 in 5 years is probably referring to MJ losing the three playoff series he played before Pippen was drafted. I think 1-9 is Jordan's record in games in those years.

It's a poor argument anyway. Jordan had a crap team in those early years, whereas Pippen had Grant, Kukoc, Armstrong, and a Rushmore coaching staff, not to mention a team with a wealth of playoff experience. The situations aren't comparable.

I agree with tsherkin, it's eyebrow-raising at the least to compare Pippen's playoff record to Pettit's when A)30 of his 33 series wins came as Jordan's clear #2 and B)A successful playoff run required fewer series in the 50s and 60s when Pettit played.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #31 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/5/23) 

Post#20 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Oct 3, 2023 7:38 am

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Is that really a fair metric to use, given MJ? Seems somewhat... fuzzy. 6-4 in the playoffs without Jordan in Chicago. Then lost in the first round, lost in the WCFs on a stacked Portland team where he wasn't the focus piece (and didn't play well vs LA), lost to the Lakers in the first round twice, then lost in the first round to the Mavs.

Very different look than if you include series where he wasn't Robin'g to Jordan.


Pippen: 6-4 in playoff series in 6 years without Jordan
Jordan: 0-3 in playoff series in 5 years without Pippen


I am confused by this. The 6-4 is presumably the Bulls' 1994 playoff record, but then what is the 'in 6 years' part about? And the 6-4 implies that the 0-3 is a record of playoff games Jordan played without Pippen, but there was only ever one playoff game that Jordan played without Pippen from 1987 onward.

I feel like things are getting mixed up here. I think the 0-3 in 5 years is probably referring to MJ losing the three playoff series he played before Pippen was drafted. I think 1-9 is Jordan's record in games in those years.

It's a poor argument anyway. Jordan had a crap team in those early years, whereas Pippen had Grant, Kukoc, Armstrong, and a Rushmore coaching staff, not to mention a team with a wealth of playoff experience. The situations aren't comparable.

I agree with tsherkin, it's eyebrow-raising at the least to compare Pippen's playoff record to Pettit's when A)30 of his 33 series wins came as Jordan's clear #2 and B)A successful playoff run required fewer series in the 50s and 60s when Pettit played.


I guess I had it wrong. Pippen's series record was actually 3-6 in the playoffs without Jordan. I saw the thing above and thought it was his series record. He won 1 series in '94 and 2 series in 2000 with Portland. Overall on a game-by-game basis, Jordan was 1-9 without Pippen in the playoffs and Pippen was 18-23 without Jordan. My point was just that Pippen probably deserves a little more credit than he gets since he actually showed more ability to get it done without Jordan that MJ did without him. Obviously I'm not saying he was as valuable as Jordan to the championship teams, but he probably was at least as valuable to those teams as Kobe was to the Lakers 3-peat teams of the early 2000s.

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