RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #33 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/12/23)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 3:25 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Walt Frazier

John Havlicek

Kawhi Leonard

Reggie Miller

John Stockton

iggymcfrack · Post #2 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 3:47 pm

Vote: Stockton, Stockton, Stockton!!!!!!!!!!
Clearly the most underrated player in the project IMO. I’d have him ahead of the player who went in #7 (Wilt) and I’m not even big on longevity!!! All-time assists leader (by a mile). All-time steals leader (by a mile). #5 player in 26 year RAPM looking only at his age 34-40 seasons!!! Don’t just throw that out! He showed greater impact than Shaq or Duncan or a ton of other stars did for their entire careers at an age when Jordan had already retired… twice!!! He’s #3 all-time in VORP. Honestly, I think there’s a very good chance I’m underrating him at #15 on my all-time list.

Alternate: Kawhi
All-time 2 way peak. Will get into it more after Stockton goes which better be this thread!!!

Nominate: Anthony Davis
Top 6 in 3 box score composites between regular season and playoffs with enough defensive impact that he should get the same benefit of the doubt on exceeding his box score numbers as say Patrick Ewing. For all the talk about his injuries, he’s only ever missed one playoff game.

Alternate: Jason Kidd
Only player in the top 20 in VORP other than Stockton who hasn’t been inducted yet. Led 2 teams to the Finals as the CLEAR best player. Finished #2 for MVP. Had a major contribution to a championship team at age 37. Basically did it all between peak and longevity.

Post #3 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:00 pm

Vote 1 - John Stockton
Vote 2 - Walt Frazier
Nomination 1- Rick Barry
Nomination 2 - Dolph Schayes

I swear I like modern players too lol...

Stockton's the poster boy for all time great longevity and durability. When you play that long you're going to have some missteps along the way, but the late career impact data certainly bolsters his case. Yes there are other players still on the table who significantly contributed to winning titles, but it's still a team accomplishment. I get not everyone subscribes to total career value, but it's hard to argue against stockton at this point if you do.

He played in 82 games or equivalent in 17 of his 19 seasons. In the other 2 he played in 78 ('90) and 64 ('98). That's just absurd. And he wasn't just a role player who showed up to work. He was a star player with a long and consistent prime. From '88-'97 he put up the following:

15.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 12.8 APG, 2.6 SPG on 52.4% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 82.9% FT, 61.9% TS, +8.49 rTS

Malone attempted 19.1 FGAs and 9.8 FTAs per game in those seasons with 30.2% USG. With Sloan coaching the team in 9 of those 10 seasons, it seems clear Stockton never had the opportunity to increase his volume as a scorer. The gameplan of Stockton to Malone was clear.

Stockton in series clinchers during this period (all deep playoff runs)

'92 vs SEA - 18 PTS, 6 REB, 17 AST, 5 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TO, 52% TS, 132 ORtg

'94 vs SAS - 13 PTS, 18 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK, 2 TO, 70% TS, 145 ORtg

'96 vs POR - 21 PTS, 4 REB, 11 AST, 2 STL, 4 TO, 80% TS, 137 ORtg

'97 vs. LAL - 24 PTS, 1 REB, 10 AST, 1 STL, 4 TO, 70% TS, 138 ORtg

In the final season of his career he *still* scored at +5.8 rTS. Yes it was in reduced volume and minutes (10.8 PPG / 27.7 MPG) but he started all 82 games, the jazz won 47 and he posted an on/off of +6.9. Being a positive impact player as a starter at 40 years old isn't normal. He deserves credit for this impressive extended play past his prime.

Owly · Post #4 » by **Owly** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:27 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Stockton, Stockton, Stockton!!!!!!!!!!
Clearly the most underrated player in the project IMO. I’d have him ahead of the player who went in #7 (Wilt) and I’m not even big on longevity!!! All-time assists leader (by a mile). All-time steals leader (by a mile). #5 player in 26 year RAPM looking only at his age 34-40 seasons!!! Don’t just throw that out! He showed greater impact than Shaq or Duncan or a ton of other stars did for their entire careers at an age when Jordan had already retired… twice!!! He’s #3 all-time in VORP. Honestly, I think there’s a very good chance I’m underrating him at #15 on my all-time list.

Alternate: Kawhi
All-time 2 way peak. Will get into it more after Stockton goes which better be this thread!!!

Nominate: Anthony Davis
Top 6 in 3 box score composites between regular season and playoffs with enough defensive impact that he should get the same benefit of the doubt on exceeding his box score numbers as say Patrick Ewing. For all the talk about his injuries, he’s only ever missed one playoff game.

Alternate: Jason Kidd
Only player in the top 20 in VORP other than Stockton who hasn’t been inducted yet. Led 2 teams to the Finals as the CLEAR best player. Finished #2 for MVP. Had a major contribution to a championship team at age 37. Basically did it all between peak and longevity.

I would say "in the VORP era" or "since 73-74" for any VORP leadership. NBA BPM and thus VORP starts from the 73-74 season (steals, blocks, rebounds split to offensive and defensive). So for instance (probably the main instance) Jabbar misses 4 seasons including 3 that other box composites say are on average about at [PER] or considerably above above [WS/48, with it's team angle] his VORP era peaks. So if those years are at or near 10 VORP (he peaks at 9 but doesn't get to the 3300 minute plus range whilst getting PER above 29 never mind getting near those WS/48 peaks)... well, if he only got 20 rather than 30 VORP it doesn't take much from his rookie year to surpass Stockton. Obviously it's harder to estimate earlier players but there aren't longevity giants to the same degree.

Now, the fact I'm saying Kareem is (very) probably ahead of him in VORP ...

rk2023 · Post #5 » by **rk2023** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:27 pm

Vote: Reggie Miller
Alternate: Kawhi Leonard
Nomination: Jason Kidd
Alternate Nom: Rick Barry

RE: Miller - I don't have nothing much to add on top of what I have already mentioned, so will link my prior post. With Miller, his best season(s) might be a slight hair below Pippen - who was just enshrined in the project - if not equivalent (I'm one who is high on Reggie, if one couldn't tell) - but I feel a larger and longer prime sample gives him the nod for me ranking the two in a career sense.

viewtopic.php?p=108445816#p108445816

While Stockton has the longevity and prime consistency, I'm much higher on Kawhi and Frazier in a prime sense. I don't see too much of a difference between Kawhi and Giannis/Jokic all-time (for now.. my guess is into the future they each will have accumulated a decent amount more career value than Kawhi), as I feel Kawhi has his fair share of quality seasons dating back to 2014 - the start of a very impressive 3-year spree as a defender. This obviously excludes 2018 & 22 due to injury, and I'm not that high on '23 Kawhi due to the very unique circumstances of his last season, but I don't ding for injuries - such as Zaza taking his lower leg out or driving into Joe Ingles' knee - as much as others (so it seems), and still see that Kawhi has MVP level seasons such as 2016, 2019 & 2020 to his name. One of those was with a very impressive title run as well. So Kawhi being a more dependable floor-raiser (If I may be underestimating the other, please let me know) gives him the edge over the better era-relative longevity Frazier has in his own right here.

Kidd has a great case for being the best guard defender in league history. Even with a player who had some clear drawbacks as a scorer, his amazing position-relative rebounding, transition ability, and exploitative - yet highly-proficient - passing made him a very impactful player both in Phoenix and in Jersey. Same applies even in Dallas as he aged and became a better shooter with less of a sheer offensive responsibility.

As proof of the latter, Kidd had a 11.4 net-rating swing from 2002-07 as a Net using RS + PS minutes in aggregate. Somewhat more than 10 points of this are on the offensive end (~105-95), showing his ability to floor-raise an offense through volume creation despite relatively unproductive scoring numbers. Before this span & mentioned earlier, his 1999-01 seasons are solid - and he seems to have been a crucial cog in the late 00s / early 10s Dallas teams - albeit as a less valuable player (playoff on/off looks great in the 08-12 span, while he scaled down).

iggymcfrack · Post #6 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:28 pm

Since Clyde Frazier is talking about series clinchers, we might as well show the biggest shot in the history of the Utah Jazz franchise:

Watch on YouTube

iggymcfrack · Post #7 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:33 pm

Also, I know it feels like Stockton is too modern to need a highlight reel to appreciate his abilities, but I do feel like a lot of people are caught in this misconception that all he did was throw a lot of easy post entries and take open shots, and he never made any crazy difficult plays or blew by anyone which is very untrue so I thought I'd show this video that I was watching on my own a week or two ago. It's a good one! No annoying replays or anything!

Watch on YouTube

iggymcfrack · Post #8 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:46 pm

I know there are questions about the efficacy of time machine arguments and they're usually used to bring down the older player, but can you imagine Stockton now? First off, he'd be coached to take way more threes and I'm sure he could easily maintain his efficiency shooting 5 or 6 a game. And next, how well would he fit in the superteam era? A tremendous passer and defender who doesn't need to get his own shot, but has lethal floor spacing at all times. People love to use it as a big point in Durant's favor that he's so portable that he can fit with anyone, but imagine Stockton next to Giannis or Embiid or AD. Imagine him playing next to LeBron in Miami instead of Wade! Bron firmly playing the 4 and spamming an unstoppable PnR as the roll/pop man with impeccable spacing while still knowing it's his team at all times and Stockton can easily fade into the background when it's time for Bron to take over and be the alpha. Stockton's honestly a better defender than Wade too. They probably win at least 3 titles from 2011-2014 and then as a bonus they don't have to break up after 2014 because Stockton doesn't decline!

AEnigma · Post #9 » by **AEnigma** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 4:53 pm

VOTE: Reggie Miller
Alternate: Walt Frazier
NOMINATE: Rick Barry
AltNom: Jason Kidd

Miller is the guy I trust most in the postseason with team-building around him, and he has a strong extended and post-prime playing at that level. However, I do not think he has the overall dynamism to be massively impactful on any random regular season team, to an extent that does matter for reasonable contention.

For nominees… I am still not completely sold on this Barry vote, but a decade of superstardom should be worth a fair bit, and I do not believe he was that far below Erving when both were in their primes. Kidd versus Pierce or Gilmore is a tight question for me but Kidd has more initial support.

MyUniBroDavis · Post #10 » by **MyUniBroDavis** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 5:02 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:I’d have him ahead of the player who went in #7 (Wilt) and I’m not even big on longevity!!!

lessthanjake · Post #11 » by **lessthanjake** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 5:08 pm

Vote for #33: Kawhi Leonard
Alternate Vote: Walt Frazier
Nomination: Rick Barry

I’ve explained in the last thread why I’m voting for Kawhi, so I’ll just generally refer back to that. Basically, I just think he’s the best player left, and his longevity issues at this point aren’t enough to bring him below players that I just don’t think are as good as him. Walt Frazier is my new alternate vote. I think some of the discussion in the last thread moved me a bit on Frazier, since he was actually the best player on a title team. I am close to going for Havlicek here, but I think Frazier just edges it for me. Frankly, I waffle back and forth on these two but I think Frazier’s defense gets him the nod for me. As for the nomination vote, I’ve explained why Rick Barry in several earlier threads, so I’ll just generally refer back to that.

iggymcfrack · Post #12 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 5:31 pm

Owly wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Stockton, Stockton, Stockton!!!!!!!!!!
Clearly the most underrated player in the project IMO. I’d have him ahead of the player who went in #7 (Wilt) and I’m not even big on longevity!!! All-time assists leader (by a mile). All-time steals leader (by a mile). #5 player in 26 year RAPM looking only at his age 34-40 seasons!!! Don’t just throw that out! He showed greater impact than Shaq or Duncan or a ton of other stars did for their entire careers at an age when Jordan had already retired… twice!!! He’s #3 all-time in VORP. Honestly, I think there’s a very good chance I’m underrating him at #15 on my all-time list.

Alternate: Kawhi
All-time 2 way peak. Will get into it more after Stockton goes which better be this thread!!!

Nominate: Anthony Davis
Top 6 in 3 box score composites between regular season and playoffs with enough defensive impact that he should get the same benefit of the doubt on exceeding his box score numbers as say Patrick Ewing. For all the talk about his injuries, he’s only ever missed one playoff game.

Alternate: Jason Kidd
Only player in the top 20 in VORP other than Stockton who hasn’t been inducted yet. Led 2 teams to the Finals as the CLEAR best player. Finished #2 for MVP. Had a major contribution to a championship team at age 37. Basically did it all between peak and longevity.

I would say "in the VORP era" or "since 73-74" for any VORP leadership. NBA BPM and thus VORP starts from the 73-74 season (steals, blocks, rebounds split to offensive and defensive). So for instance (probably the main instance) Jabbar misses 4 seasons including 3 that other box composites say are on average about at [PER] or considerably above above [WS/48, with it's team angle] his VORP era peaks. So if those years are at or near 10 VORP (he peaks at 9 but doesn't get to the 3300 minute plus range whilst getting PER above 29 never mind getting near those WS/48 peaks)... well, if he only got 20 rather than 30 VORP it doesn't take much from his rookie year to surpass Stockton. Obviously it's harder to estimate earlier players but there aren't longevity giants to the same degree.

Does it really matter that it's only for the last 50 years when we're talking about someone being #3 by the very best box score metric and we're voting for.... #33?

Now, the fact I'm saying Kareem is (very) probably ahead of him in VORP ...

No, he's definitely not. I don't even have to look it up. Only LeBron and MJ are ahead of Stockton in VORP. Kareem and maybe Wilt are the only players that likely to surpass Stockton if we had all the modern data for the early years of the league.

Post #13 » by **penbeast0** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 6:40 pm

VOTE JOHN STOCKTON: Agree that he's slid quite a bit this project despite incredibly strong impact stats from the end of his career. To me, he's arguably the greatest playmaker in NBA history with only Oscar, Magic, Nash, and Paul having a case against him. He took bad offensive Utah rosters to good offensive ratings and when they added a third above average offensive player in Hornacek, he made them one of the best in the league. Add to that he is one of the most efficient scoring PGs in history, gets all defense awards for his outstanding (admittedly dirty) help defense, and was one of the great ironmen in NBA history. There are arguments against him, that he wasn't a lead scorer and that he didn't up his game tremendously in the playoffs though the stats indicate that his teams actually did despite Karl Malone's not having a history of great playoffs either. But you can easily build an NBA champion around him as long as you have some other scoring alternatives.

Alernative vote Walt Frazier: A valuable offensive player with excellent efficiency and someone that ran an offense that coaches have been using as a model for the last 50 years. Defensively, he was apparently one of the great point of attack stoppers v. other PGs with excellent size and athleticism, and he upped his game in the NBA finals twice to bring NY it's only NBA championships. On the downside he was not a heliocentric offensive PG who had the ball in his hands all the time and his offenses were not historically that impressive and his career was fairly short.

NOMINATE Artis Gilmore: Gilmore was a bit underwhelming in the NBA despite putting up some of the most efficient scoring seasons in NBA history. But in the ABA, he was a monster, making his impact even stronger as the league got stronger toward the end. Part of that was gameplanning, Chicago played him closer to the basket on both ends than Kentucky making him work a bit less on defense but also to affect less shots as a rim protector while making the shots easier and more efficient on offense but more difficult to get the ball to him to score. Part of it was his personality, he was a relatively passive athlete who didn't call his own number or push things. If he'd had the personality of a Alonzo Mourning or Mel Daniels with his size and skills, he'd be in the conversation for 6th best center of all time with David Robinson and Moses Malone.

Alternative Manu Ginobili: Could have gone for a few guys here. Dantley for the best remaining scoring numbers but it seems a bit early for a guy who didn't elevate his teams as much as his numbers would suggest. Jason Kidd for his defensive impact and playmaking but it seems almost wrong to have him even in the conversation with Stockton who on a whole different level as a point guard. Kevin Mchale hasn't been mentioned, strong two way impact for a very good ultra stacked team with one great year as lead option when Bird wasn't at his peak. I used to think he was a poor rebounder but have come around on it; when playing next to Larry Bird, there aren't as many opportunities. Pau Gasol is one I should start looking at too.

Owly · Post #14 » by **Owly** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 6:53 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Owly wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Vote: Stockton, Stockton, Stockton!!!!!!!!!!
Clearly the most underrated player in the project IMO. I’d have him ahead of the player who went in #7 (Wilt) and I’m not even big on longevity!!! All-time assists leader (by a mile). All-time steals leader (by a mile). #5 player in 26 year RAPM looking only at his age 34-40 seasons!!! Don’t just throw that out! He showed greater impact than Shaq or Duncan or a ton of other stars did for their entire careers at an age when Jordan had already retired… twice!!! He’s #3 all-time in VORP. Honestly, I think there’s a very good chance I’m underrating him at #15 on my all-time list.

Alternate: Kawhi
All-time 2 way peak. Will get into it more after Stockton goes which better be this thread!!!

Nominate: Anthony Davis
Top 6 in 3 box score composites between regular season and playoffs with enough defensive impact that he should get the same benefit of the doubt on exceeding his box score numbers as say Patrick Ewing. For all the talk about his injuries, he’s only ever missed one playoff game.

Alternate: Jason Kidd
Only player in the top 20 in VORP other than Stockton who hasn’t been inducted yet. Led 2 teams to the Finals as the CLEAR best player. Finished #2 for MVP. Had a major contribution to a championship team at age 37. Basically did it all between peak and longevity.

I would say "in the VORP era" or "since 73-74" for any VORP leadership. NBA BPM and thus VORP starts from the 73-74 season (steals, blocks, rebounds split to offensive and defensive). So for instance (probably the main instance) Jabbar misses 4 seasons including 3 that other box composites say are on average about at [PER] or considerably above above [WS/48, with it's team angle] his VORP era peaks. So if those years are at or near 10 VORP (he peaks at 9 but doesn't get to the 3300 minute plus range whilst getting PER above 29 never mind getting near those WS/48 peaks)... well, if he only got 20 rather than 30 VORP it doesn't take much from his rookie year to surpass Stockton. Obviously it's harder to estimate earlier players but there aren't longevity giants to the same degree.

Does it really matter that it's only for the last 50 years when we're talking about someone being #3 by the very best box score metric and we're voting for.... #33?

Now, the fact I'm saying Kareem is (very) probably ahead of him in VORP ...

No, he's definitely not. I don't even have to look it up. Only LeBron and MJ are ahead of Stockton in VORP. Kareem and maybe Wilt are the only players that likely to surpass Stockton if we had all the modern data for the early years of the league.

So ...
1) Yes it does matter. The principle what you say and what you mean matching (as far as reasonably possible) matters. Does it undermine how convincing a case it is for Stockton, no, but then nor was it meant to. It's just fairer to say of those who aren't in the field that they aren't in the field. The phrase "all time", even granting the context of the thread is major league era (North American, male basketball) so it is in a sense not ever literally true, has the potential to mislead for instance in the case of ....

2) I think you've failed to comprehend. Go back and read the post. In significant part, it regards Kareem's incomplete data and how he has likely very high value years that would, given fuller data very, very likely push his VORP total past Stockton's. Your response is essentially "Kareem isn't ahead of him in VORP". And yes, insofar as VORP is only available from '74, Stockton is technically ahead of Jabbar, but as both you and I point out, if we're actually doing this "all time" (the implied context) Kareem is very probably ahead of him. I don't really understand how probability could come into it if it were regarding the known data ... it's known.

Post #15 » by **penbeast0** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 7:05 pm

Though to be fair, the longevity advantages of modern medicine and getting into the NBA before your college class would have graduated are balanced to some degree by the much greater minutes that the stars (not the ordinary players) played in those earlier eras. So Wilt (the most extreme) might have more minutes than someone who player 4 or 5 years more in a more modern era, particularly the 2020s.

iggymcfrack · Post #16 » by **iggymcfrack** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 7:21 pm

Owly wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
Owly wrote:I would say "in the VORP era" or "since 73-74" for any VORP leadership. NBA BPM and thus VORP starts from the 73-74 season (steals, blocks, rebounds split to offensive and defensive). So for instance (probably the main instance) Jabbar misses 4 seasons including 3 that other box composites say are on average about at [PER] or considerably above above [WS/48, with it's team angle] his VORP era peaks. So if those years are at or near 10 VORP (he peaks at 9 but doesn't get to the 3300 minute plus range whilst getting PER above 29 never mind getting near those WS/48 peaks)... well, if he only got 20 rather than 30 VORP it doesn't take much from his rookie year to surpass Stockton. Obviously it's harder to estimate earlier players but there aren't longevity giants to the same degree.

Does it really matter that it's only for the last 50 years when we're talking about someone being #3 by the very best box score metric and we're voting for.... #33?

Now, the fact I'm saying Kareem is (very) probably ahead of him in VORP ...

No, he's definitely not. I don't even have to look it up. Only LeBron and MJ are ahead of Stockton in VORP. Kareem and maybe Wilt are the only players that likely to surpass Stockton if we had all the modern data for the early years of the league.

So ...
1) Yes it does matter. The principle what you say and what you mean matching (as far as reasonably possible) matters. Does it undermine how convincing a case it is for Stockton, no, but then nor was it meant to. It's just fairer to say of those who aren't in the field that they aren't in the field. The phrase "all time", even granting the context of the thread is major league era (North American, male basketball) so it is in a sense not ever literally true, has the potential to mislead for instance in the case of ....

2) I think you've failed to comprehend. Go back and read the post. In significant part, it regards Kareem's incomplete data and how he has likely very high value years that would, given fuller data very, very likely push his VORP total past Stockton's. Your response is essentially "Kareem isn't ahead of him in VORP". And yes, insofar as VORP is only available from '74, Stockton is technically ahead of Jabbar, but as both you and I point out, if we're actually doing this "all time" (the implied context) Kareem is very probably ahead of him. I don't really understand how probability could come into it if it were regarding the known data ... it's known.

I thought you meant he was probably ahead of him anyway even missing 4 seasons and you hadn’t checked it. Anyway, I already said that if we had more data, Kareem would definitely be ahead of Stockton. He averaged 5.3 VORP per season and he only needed 20.9 to get there, so even just at average career rates, he’d have 0.3 more VORP than Stockton. 3 of those 4 years are his absolute statistical peak and he played huge minutes in all 4 so he’d probably be closer to something like 9.0 VORP per year.

Wilt’s the one that’s iffy. I could see VORP liking his assist numbers a lot, but he also has 6 less seasons than Kareem and Kareem would probably need data to be recorded all the way back to his second year in the league to make it. My gut is that Wilt would be ahead of Stockton too. I don’t see anyone else who would be likely at all to pass him though.

Anyway, I assume almost everyone here knows BPM and VORP only go back to ‘74. I mean blocks and steals only go back to ‘74 too. Do you expect me to qualify that steals have only been recorded since ‘74 every time I mention Stockton’s the all-time steals leader?

Samurai · Post #17 » by **Samurai** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 7:24 pm

Vote for #33: John Stockton. I acknowledge that Stockton's peak wasn't as high as some other nominees. But his longevity and consistency are offsetting factors for me. Stockton's consistency is just incredible; finishing in the top 10 in assists for nine straight seasons would be highly impressive but leading the league in assist % for 14 out of 16 seasons is near impossible to wrap my head around. Especially when you have guys like prime Magic Johnson running around at the beginning of that streak and Jason Kidd during the latter part of that streak. Throw in 8 seasons in the top 5 in TS % and his 5 seasons on the All Defensive 2nd team just becomes the cherry on top.

Alternate vote: Walt Frazier. Was always a fan of his and felt he was largely underrated since his role on the Knicks wasn't to be a dominant shooter. The Knicks were the epitome of a team-first emphasis in which the ball kept moving and resulted in guys like Frazier, Reed, DeBusschere, Barnett (then Monroe), Bradley, Lucas, etc. all getting their shots. Frazier was so good and efficient that if I were Red Holzman I probably would have wanted Frazier shooting more and DeBusschere and Bradley shoot a little less, but no one was asking me to coach the team. But within the parameters that Holzman wanted, Frazier played his part superbly. He took care of the ball, shot a very high percentage, and was a dominant man defender. 7-time All Defensive First Team, 4-time All NBA First Team (and 2-time second team), he was a guy who did everything very well with no glaring weakness.

Nomination: Jason Kidd. Outside of great shooting, could pretty much do whatever else you needed from a guard. Elite defense and rebounding for his position. Led the league three times in assists/game and trails only Stockton in total career assists, as much a testament to his outstanding longevity as well as his passing skills. Finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times. Rookie of the year in 95, All NBA First Team 5 times as well as another year on the All NBA Second Team and nine times on the All NBA Defensive Team (4 times on the First Team and 5 times Second Team). And he did improve his 3-point shooting over the second half of his career, currently 15th in most career 3-pointers made and was 11th in 3-point % in 2010 at the age of 36. Won a ring in 2011 and his 43 three's during the championship run were an important contribution to the title.

Alternate Nomination: Artis Gilmore. Gotta admit that when I watched him play, I was never a big Gilmore fan. And I admit that in his later years, he was largely immobile and deserved his moniker of Rigor Artis. But in his prime, he was a very good center. In his prime, he had a decent array of moves in the low post to get his (very) high percentage shots off, whereas in his later years he was largely limited to putbacks and dunks. He was a solid defender (four time All ABA Defensive First Team and once on the All NBA Defensive Second Team), a very strong rebounder and excellent screen setter. To my eyes, he was the strongest player in the game during the post-Wilt and pre-Shaq years. He won a ring in 75, was the Playoffs MVP that year, league MVP in 72, and made 11 All Star games in his 18-year career.

DraymondGold · Post #18 » by **DraymondGold** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 7:38 pm

Since I already wrote up a tiebreaker vote for Stockton in the last round, I may repost it here:

DraymondGold wrote:Vote: John Stockton.

From a career value perspective, it's hard for me to see an argument against Stockton at #32. A lot of box stats portray him as in contention for Top 10 ever in 'career totals' (including the most accurate stat, Backpicks BPM), and while box stats may overrate him slightly -- his assists numbers may slightly overrate his playmaking, his efficiency may underrate his passivity from shooting, plain career totals don't give extra weighting to peaks, regular season totals may miss some lack of resilience -- it's hard for all these factors to make up enough of the difference between Stockton and Pippen. Stockton was just adding valuable seasons for so much longer than Pippen, and it's not like impact metrics are lower on him. Now our WOWY data also has limitations (basically no missed games from Stockton, which is a good thing!... but increases WOWY uncertainty), as does our plus minus data (I'm told the Utah Jazz kept their starters rotations in sync to an unusual amount, which would cause unusually high collinearity). But again, all the information we have for Stockton puts him so much higher than Pippen from a career total value perspective. It's hard to overcome all that.

With the various Stockton vs Malone discussion that's happened over the past few threads, I think it's worth mentioning that there is a case for Stockton over Malone statistically. Raw plus minus may favor Malone during the Jazz' more successful years, and AuPM certainly favors Malone. But! RAPM pretty consistently favors Stockton.

RAPM: Stockton > Malone
Squared2020 RAPM
1988: Stockton +3.49 (14th), Malone +1.07 (64th, 4th on Jazz below Eaton)
[18 game sample, Jazz severely underperformed)
1989: N/A
1990: N/A
1991: Stockton 4.03 (9th in NBA), Malone -0.83 (258th in NBA, 8th! On Jazz)
[19 game sample, Jazz severely underperformed]
1992: N/A
1993: Stockton -0.07 (192nd), Malone -0.80 (278th)
[3 game sample, unusably small]
1994: N/A
1995: N/A
1996: Stockton +2.1 (49th in NBA), Malone 0.3 (162nd, 8th! on Jazz)
[10 game sample, Jazz severely underperformed]

Goldstein RS + PS RAPM:
1997: Malone +4.42, Stockton +3.88
1998: Stockton +5.32, Malone +5.31
1999: Stockton +5.14, Malone +4.58
2000: Stockton +6.18, Malone +4.12

So... Malone's ahead in 1997, but Stocktons ahead in *every other sample*, including in 1996 and 1998–1999 when they were still in championship contention. Now there are limits to all this data. Squared2020's samples are small and the Jazz underperformed in them. I would absolutely expect Malone in particular to improve above a ranking of 64th/258th/278th in the NBA if we had full season data. But when you combine Stockton's consistent superiority to Malone in the earlier 90s samples, along with his superiority in full-season samples in 1998 (they're basically tied) and 1999 when the Jazz were in contention, it's hard to come away with the picture that Malone was *that* more valuable than Stockton, even if Malone's higher minutes ends up making you prefer him.

We also have Moonbeam's RWOWY, where Stockton > Malone.
Stockton: 0 touching 100th percentile line, 1 over 97th percentile, 9 over 90th percentile, 16 over 75th percentile, 22 over 50th percentile
Karl: 0 samples touching 100th percentile, 0 over 97th percentile, 6 over 90th, 15 over 75th percentile, 20 over 50th percentile

Again, there's limitations with this data. The actual number of missed games is very minimal for these players, making it hard to trust the data (Stockton missed 4 games in 1990, 18 games in 1998, Malone missed 1 game in 1992, 1 game in 1998, 1 game in 1999). But it's still another point where, at a minimum, the data is painting Stockton as comparable to Malone (and even actually having Stockton over Malone).

Given how much higher Malone went in this list, I can see similar arguments that went for Malone also favoring Stockton here over Pippen.

trelos6 · Post #19 » by **trelos6** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 7:43 pm

Looking at the greatest peaks project last year.

21. 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard
26. 2019-20 Anthony Davis
33. 1989-90 Patrick Ewing
35. 2010-11 Dwight Howard
36. 2021-22 Joel Embiid
37. 1957-58 Bob Pettit
38. 1994-95 Scottie Pippen
44. 1971-72 Walt Frazier

vote. Kawhi Leonard. Probably best peak of remaining players. 5 all NBA, 8 all star campaigns is a bit short vs others, but I think his peak makes up for it.

Outlined Frazier v Stockton below. It’s close.

Walt vs Stockton

Walt Frazier
Weak MVP Seasons (4): 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973
All NBA Seasons (3): 1969, 1974, 1975
All Star Seasons (1): 1976
All D level: 7 seasons

John Stockton
All NBA Seasons (9): 1988-1996
All Star Seasons (5): 1997-2001
All D level: 10 seasons

So what we have here are 2 very good defensive guards, with Frazier having the edge in peak, and Stockton the edge in longevity.

Frazier's peak was 18.8 pp75 +7.2 rTS%, although his 6 year stretch is 17.4 pp75 on +3.9 rTS%. He played well in the playoffs, with a 3 year peak of 20.4 pp75 on +8.4 rTS%. Stockton's 6 year stretch is 16.6 pp75 on +7.3 rTS%. With his best 3 year stretch producing 17.9 pp75 on +6.1 rTS%.

Stockton also has the clear edge in creation metrics, posting superior creation and passer rating numbers.

It's really a toss up, with my slight edge to Frazier as I think he achieved a higher peak, but I can probably be persuaded either way.

alt vote: Frazier .

nom: Dwight Howard. Fantastic defender in his prime. Did enough on offense as a lob catcher. Was a dominant defender for 10+ seasons.

Alt nom: Anthony Davis one of the best defenders in the nba since he was drafted. Fantastic one year peak, some ok longevity.

Owly · Post #20 » by **Owly** » Mon Oct 9, 2023 8:23 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Owly wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
Does it really matter that it's only for the last 50 years when we're talking about someone being #3 by the very best box score metric and we're voting for.... #33?

No, he's definitely not. I don't even have to look it up. Only LeBron and MJ are ahead of Stockton in VORP. Kareem and maybe Wilt are the only players that likely to surpass Stockton if we had all the modern data for the early years of the league.

So ...
1) Yes it does matter. The principle what you say and what you mean matching (as far as reasonably possible) matters. Does it undermine how convincing a case it is for Stockton, no, but then nor was it meant to. It's just fairer to say of those who aren't in the field that they aren't in the field. The phrase "all time", even granting the context of the thread is major league era (North American, male basketball) so it is in a sense not ever literally true, has the potential to mislead for instance in the case of ....

2) I think you've failed to comprehend. Go back and read the post. In significant part, it regards Kareem's incomplete data and how he has likely very high value years that would, given fuller data very, very likely push his VORP total past Stockton's. Your response is essentially "Kareem isn't ahead of him in VORP". And yes, insofar as VORP is only available from '74, Stockton is technically ahead of Jabbar, but as both you and I point out, if we're actually doing this "all time" (the implied context) Kareem is very probably ahead of him. I don't really understand how probability could come into it if it were regarding the known data ... it's known.

I thought you meant he was probably ahead of him anyway even missing 4 seasons and you hadn’t checked it.

Okay so ... look at the context ...
[talk about the years that are missing]
" So if those years are at or near 10 VORP (he peaks at 9 but doesn't get to the 3300 minute plus range whilst getting PER above 29 never mind getting near those WS/48 peaks)... well, if he only got 20 rather than 30 VORP it doesn't take much from his rookie year to surpass Stockton" ...
I guess you're explaining yourself, I just don't understand how reading the above led you to that conclusion.

iggymcfrack wrote:Anyway, I already said that if we had more data, Kareem would definitely be ahead of Stockton.

You've said that now, yes. I've also acknowledged your saying it.
"but as both you and I point out, if we're actually doing this "all time" (the implied context) Kareem is very probably ahead of him"

iggymcfrack wrote:He averaged 5.3 VORP per season and he only needed 20.9 to get there, so even just at average career rates, he’d have 0.3 more VORP than Stockton. 3 of those 4 years are his absolute statistical peak and he played huge minutes in all 4 so he’d probably be closer to something like 9.0 VORP per year.

This appears to be the essence of part of my post marginally reformed and repeated back ...

iggymcfrack wrote:Anyway, I assume almost everyone here knows BPM and VORP only go back to ‘74. I mean blocks and steals only go back to ‘74 too.

So on the latter, yes, this is the case. And you know what other Reference composites do ... spit out an estimate anyway with incomplete data. And as you will see, BPM does that for a time too. Do I expect everyone (I will say everyone rather than your phrase "almost everyone", I'm not scoring points on this, I say everyone because that's the audience) browsing to know otoh the intricacies of BPM, that it starts with those stats and not estimates (earlier) or not when turnovers are tracked (later; they are absent but estimated initially)? No. Do I expect them to know it's done slightly differently from '85 on, from when it's done game-by-game. No I don't. Indeed I might forget whether it started at turnovers or rebound split, steals and blocks.

iggymcfrack wrote:Do you expect me to qualify that steals have only been recorded since ‘74 every time I mention Stockton’s the all-time steals leader?

No because it would be odd to assume people would just estimate a single official compiling stat and plug it into an all time list. In that context "all time leader" implicitly starts with when the specific thing measured starts. But per the above, it absolutely isn't odd for an input into box-composites to be estimated or worked around and indeed BPM does it (with turnovers) and the measure to starts at the start of the thing notionally measured (basketball goodness/productivity) which starts at or around the start of major league basketball.

That "26 year RAPM" ... that's about all the time RAPM could be calculated for. But you wouldn't call it "all time" RAPM. Because it misses a large chunk of basketball history. But in a sense that would be more reasonable since there is a clear start to the play-by-play era in a way there isn't for box composites.

So going back to my original comment
'I would say "in the VORP era" or "since 73-74" ...'
I'd stand by that. Or just not "all time". It's a preference but I think it's more honest, clearer and therefore leads to a tighter case for Stockton.