RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Reggie Miller)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Reggie Miller) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:13 pm

Note: As 3 Nominees were added last round, there will be no Nomination vote this round, or the next.

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
ljspeelman
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Rick Barry
Image

Anthony Davis
Image

Artis Gilmore
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Manu Ginobili
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John Havlicek
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Jason Kidd
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Reggie Miller
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:14 pm

VOTE: Reggie Miller
Alternate: John Havlicek
AEnigma wrote:Grade most the candidates as well as a few potential nominees on similar levels. At this point, I side with overwhelming longevity disparity among the franchise centrepieces available, and of that group, I am most confident in Miller or Havlicek to lead my team to consistent playoff success over time. I vacillate between the two: Miller is more specialised and “modern”, but Havlicek is more accomplished and fulfilled a role in his team’s pecking orders which would have been similar for Reggie in his place (Russell speaks for himself, but I take Cowens’ peak/prime over both Havlicek’s and Reggie’s as well).

My primary nomination next round will likely be Pierce (for future readers, see prior thread on a longer discussion of Pierce versus Manu). Right now he has no real support, so I will need to consider who I want to back as my alternate nomination. Baylor and Schayes seem to have a bit of early support. I will need to think about Schayes; he has a title, and he has twelve years as a efficient offensive star in some capacity, but the sudden dropoff leaves me wary, as does the uncertainty of how he compares to his contemporary Pettit.

Baylor… is not a player I hold in too high regard after 1963, and I think he was very much a product of his time without the “undeniable” achievements which could make me look past some of that (e.g. driving a title team, seriously competing for Player of the Year, etc.). Once Oscar enters the league I do not even have Baylor as a top three player, but I think you can argue he regularly outperformed Pettit (who also went higher than where I would have voted for him) in the postseason, so I understand people who voted for Pettit accordingly giving some support to Baylor now. A few top five years in the 1960s is not meaningfully different in my eyes from a few top ten years in the 2000s without a stronger showing of impact on par with those absolute top players, and Baylor does not have that — but seeing as neither do most of the twentieth century names next in line, maybe that is enough.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#3 » by tsherkin » Thu Oct 19, 2023 6:31 pm

AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Reggie Miller
Alternate: John Havlicek
AEnigma wrote:Grade most the candidates as well as a few potential nominees on similar levels. At this point, I side with overwhelming longevity disparity among the franchise centrepieces available, and of that group, I am most confident in Miller or Havlicek to lead my team to consistent playoff success over time. I vacillate between the two: Miller is more specialised and “modern”, but Havlicek is more accomplished and fulfilled a role in his team’s pecking orders which would have been similar for Reggie in his place (Russell speaks for himself, but I take Cowens’ peak/prime over both Havlicek’s and Reggie’s as well).

My primary nomination next round will likely be Pierce (for future readers, see prior thread on a longer discussion of Pierce versus Manu). Right now he has no real support, so I will need to consider who I want to back as my alternate nomination. Baylor and Schayes seem to have a bit of early support. I will need to think about Schayes; he has a title, and he has twelve years as a efficient offensive star in some capacity, but the sudden dropoff leaves me wary, as does the uncertainty of how he compares to his contemporary Pettit.

Baylor… is not a player I hold in too high regard after 1963, and I think he was very much a product of his time without the “undeniable” achievements which could make me look past some of that (e.g. driving a title team, seriously competing for Player of the Year, etc.). Once Oscar enters the league I do not even have Baylor as a top three player, but I think you can argue he regularly outperformed Pettit (who also went higher than where I would have voted for him) in the postseason, so I understand people who voted for Pettit accordingly giving some support to Baylor now. A few top five years in the 1960s is not meaningfully different in my eyes from a few top ten years in the 2000s without a stronger showing of impact on par with those absolute top players, and Baylor does not have that — but seeing as neither do most of the twentieth century names next in line, maybe that is enough.


Baylor vs Pettit, besides volume, what do you look at him doing better?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 6:53 pm

Okay, thinking out loud here. Longevity pushes John Havlicek, Reggie Miller, and Jason Kidd. Kidd had tremendous defensive impact for a PG, probably the GOAT level defender and close to it as a rebounder, but he was a poor shooter and an overrated playmaker. Reggie is Mr. Postseason, putting on a show in the clutch. Hondo was an overrated offensive player his first few years but always brought defensive energy. He started getting toward at least league average efficiency toward the end of the Russell years and became a really good second option to Cowens at a point where most players are slowing down. I probably have them in that order, Miller, Kidd, Havlicek, but consider them all roughly on the same level. Open to persuasion.

In the short peak/prime end, you have the ABA dominance of Artis Gilmore, followed by a couple of ATG efficiency years scoring inside in Chicago, though his defense (the key to most great bigs) started to fade after his first Chicago year. Great physcial skill, hurt by tendency toward passivity that is rare among ATG players. You have the occasionally healthy Anthony Davis with probably the best playoff run by any of these players and he played in today's league, and you (if we are adjusting for the missed vote) have the limited minutes of the greatest sixth man of all time, Manu Ginobili who, like AD, was truly sublime at times in the playoffs in his role. Similarly Rick Barry had the one great playoff run and a long run as a primary scorer but I just find his toxic personality to be sufficiently off putting that I wouldn't vote for him this early.

Vote: Reggie Miller
Alt Vote: Jason Kidd


But reserving my right to change if anyone is particularly convincing.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#5 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:17 pm

How soon will people be nominating Drexler?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#6 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:54 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Okay, thinking out loud here. Longevity pushes John Havlicek, Reggie Miller, and Jason Kidd. Kidd had tremendous defensive impact for a PG, probably the GOAT level defender and close to it as a rebounder, but he was a poor shooter and an overrated playmaker. Reggie is Mr. Postseason, putting on a show in the clutch. Hondo was an overrated offensive player his first few years but always brought defensive energy. He started getting toward at least league average efficiency toward the end of the Russell years and became a really good second option to Cowens at a point where most players are slowing down. I probably have them in that order, Miller, Kidd, Havlicek, but consider them all roughly on the same level. Open to persuasion.

In the short peak/prime end, you have the ABA dominance of Artis Gilmore, followed by a couple of ATG efficiency years scoring inside in Chicago, though his defense (the key to most great bigs) started to fade after his first Chicago year. Great physcial skill, hurt by tendency toward passivity that is rare among ATG players. You have the occasionally healthy Anthony Davis with probably the best playoff run by any of these players and he played in today's league, and you (if we are adjusting for the missed vote) have the limited minutes of the greatest sixth man of all time, Manu Ginobili who, like AD, was truly sublime at times in the playoffs in his role. Similarly Rick Barry had the one great playoff run and a long run as a primary scorer but I just find his toxic personality to be sufficiently off putting that I wouldn't vote for him this early.

Vote: Reggie Miller
Alt Vote: Jason Kidd


But reserving my right to change if anyone is particularly convincing.


The only exception I'd take to what you wrote above is Havlicek was the leading playoff scorer/assister on 3 title teams(68/69/74) and an overall strong playoff performer from 66-74. Which I think deserves a mention in these comparisons. Also dwarfed Cowens in rs/playoff scoring from 71-74 so I'd say clear #1 option on those teams(begins to cede it to Cowens/White in 75).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#7 » by Samurai » Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:11 pm

Vote for #36: John Havlicek. GOAT-level stamina and motor. Four time All NBA First Team and seven time All NBA Second team. Eight time champion and Finals MVP in 74. Great all-around swing man who was an all star as both a guard and a forward, he could score (finished in the top 20 in ppg 11 times; as high as 2nd in 71), pass (finished in the top 20 in assists/game 11 times; as high as 4th in 72), and defend (five time All NBA Defensive First Team and three time All NBA Defensive Second Team). Hondo was a terrific athlete - played baseball in college (hitting over .400 as a freshman), in 1962 he was drafted by both the Celtics and the NFL's Cleveland Browns. Former coach Rick Weitzman called Havlicek the best natural athlete he ever came into contact with. Teammate Dave Cowens was convinced that Hondo could have also excelled at track, particularly the 800 meters. Teammate Satch Sanders marvelled at how Hondo could just run forever without sweating or getting tired. Sanders told him "You're gifted as an athlete. But don't be looking at everyone else and expecting them to run with you. Because that's not going to happen!"

Alternate vote: Jason Kidd. Outside of great shooting, could pretty much do whatever else you needed from a guard. Elite defense and rebounding for his position. Led the league three times in assists/game and trails only Stockton in total career assists, as much a testament to his outstanding longevity as well as his passing skills. Finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times. Rookie of the year in 95, All NBA First Team 5 times as well as another year on the All NBA Second Team and nine times on the All NBA Defensive Team (4 times on the First Team and 5 times Second Team). And he did improve his 3-point shooting over the second half of his career, currently 15th in most career 3-pointers made and was 11th in 3-point % in 2010 at the age of 36. Won a ring in 2011 and his 43 three's during the championship run were an important contribution to the title.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#8 » by Mogspan » Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:17 pm

AD had a legitimate argument as the best player in the league from 2018-2020. He has by far the best box score stats and is the most valuable defender of all nominees while playing in by far the most internationally competitive era. Are a couple extra All-Star selections in less competitive leagues really enough to justify having any of the nominees above a guy with an embarrassingly preeminent peak and 8 All-Star selections himself?
Also, something that might surprise people. I think when it comes to athleticism, agility, physical attributes and skill I rate LeBron only in the top 50.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#9 » by lessthanjake » Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:41 pm

Vote for #36: Rick Barry
Alternate Vote: John Havlicek

I’ve said a lot about Rick Barry while voting to nominate him for multiple threads, so I’d mostly just generally refer people back to those explanations. Basically, Barry was the best player on a title team, and made a couple others finals (one in the NBA and one in the ABA) including one where he averaged over 40 points a game where his team put up the biggest fight against an all-time great team. He was all-NBA/ABA first time 9 times, with an all-NBA 2nd team another year. Basically, I just think he has a more impressive career resume than any of the other nominees. Havlicek is my alternate vote because he’s basically the one whose career resume I think comes closest.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#10 » by trelos6 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:56 pm

Vote: John Havlicek

If you give some of Havlicek's early 70's seasons a weak MVP designation, then he sits here behind Frazier. He was the jack of all trades, able to score, facilitate and was a fantastic wing defender.

Alt Nom: Rick Barry Barry had 2 weak MVP level seasons, 9 All NBA, 11 All Star, and 3 All D level seasons. Very good floor spacer, and decent passer for his position. Volume scoring was ok. Peak seaons was 25.4 pp75 on +0.7 rTS%. 3 year PS was 26.4 pp75 on -1 rTS%.

Nomination: Dwight Howard

Fantastic defender in his prime. Also had very good rim gravity. Yes, couldn't do anything outside the rim, but boy was he amazing with his catch radius and dunking prowess. Hung around due to his defensive ability. Great weak MVP level peak (at this point in the top 100), and 10+ years as an All-D level center.

Alternate: Dolph Schayes

I was considering Dolph Schayes here. Probably the second best player of the 50's. Schayes had 8 seasons over 10 WS, 7 seasons over .200 for WS/48. Compare that with Jason Kidd's 2 and 0 seasons, Stocktons 13 and 14, Miller's 11 and 5. Suggests he's in the ball park. Ultimately, I have him at 2 weak MVP level seasons, 8 All NBA Seasons, 12 All Star seasons. His peak 3yr PS was 25.3 pp75 on +7 rTS%, and regular season he was around 17-18 pp75 on +5-6 rTS%.

Looking at all the guys on the board, plus a few to be nominated, I think this is how I'd rank them.

Dwight Howard
John Havlicek
Rick Barry
Russell Westbrook
Jason Kidd
Anthony Davis
Reggie Miller
Joel Embiid
Artis Gilmore
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#11 » by AEnigma » Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:31 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:How soon will people be nominating Drexler?

Not in a rush, and among wings I prefer Pierce and probably Baylor, but he is in this area for me.

tsherkin wrote:Baylor vs Pettit, besides volume, what do you look at him doing better?

He also scored more efficiently, which I do think reflects well given Pettit was typically the efficient one, was almost always scoring at lower volume, generally had more offensive “help”, and was not suffering the effects of some oppressive Lakers defence.

Baylor was the better passer and playmaker (not using assist averages for that, just… he was). Pettit rebounded more but should be expected to on a positional basis. I think generally Baylor would have made more of a defensive difference positionally, and I am unsure whether Pettit showed much to establish any absolute advantage. And then as accomplishments, Pettit does have two MVPs and led his team to a title, but I suspect he would have accomplished none of that in Baylor’s position. As always, Pettit is justly credited for doing so in the time he played, but as players by themselves, I cannot say I see much real advantage for Pettit as a peak or prime.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:35 pm

VOTE: Jason Kidd
On our Greatest Defensive Players by Position project some years ago voted Jason Kidd the best defensive PG of all-time.
For defensive peak, I think the argument can at least be made:

He was big for PG (6'4" and 205 lbs, according to bbref, which seems about right to me). He couldn't be bullied in the post by larger PG's or combo guards, and was quick enough to stay in front of most guards, big enough to fight through screens, and it wasn't a mis-match if he got switched on to a SG's or even some SF's. fwiw, His "effective height/length" is bigger than the 6'4" suggests too, because he has kinda wicked long arms (anyone know his wingspan? I'd be shocked if it's not at least 6'7").

And he was great at getting those long arms into the passing lane when defending pnr's (he's stick those poles right into the pocket-pass window). It's no wonder he's got more steals to his credit than anyone except the guy last voted in.
And he's a helluva good rebounding PG (behind perhaps only Westbrook and Magic, perhaps??).

It could be argued that he anchored (or co-anchored, with Jason Collins??) those league-leading or near league-leading NJ defenses of the early-mid 00's. That's in a defense-dominated era, too, fwiw.


Seems he was a pretty good passer, too, especially in transition, falling 2nd again all-time to John Stockton in dimes lent.


His scoring leaves something to be desired, and he's been criticized heavily for it at times. However, his ORAPM was consistently positive (even has a handful of years where it's in the top 15 of the league).

Combine that with his defensive imprint, consistency/durability and longevity (19 years in the league, decent contributor [at a minimum] in ALL of them), and he's my pick among the listed candidates.


Alt. vote: Artis Gilmore
Glad to see he got on the ballot finally. Me leaning toward longevity a bit more puts him in high contention here. I sort of view his career like Dwight Howard, but with better durability/longevity. Similarities include both being freakishly athletic big men who peaked kinda early; terrific finishers around the rim who were also defensive giants when their athleticism was still at its apex (though admittedly falling off quickly once injury took its toll on that athleticism: both had their affectiveness on that end drop dramatically before the age of 30). Both fantastic rebounders, limited passers.

Gilmore led a team to an ABA championship [as clear best player] in his 4th season. Dwight led his team [as clear best player] as far as the NBA Finals in his 5th season.

The major difference [for me], is Artis had better longevity.


Nomination: Elgin Baylor
Alt Nom: Clyde Drexler

A partial case for Baylor follows:

Spoiler:
The opening salvo to get Elgin Baylor on the list of eligible candidates (from my archives):


I view him as a very good [not great] scorer in his era.......a modern(ish) comp [as a scorer only] maybe being Carmelo Anthony.

But although he's a touch shorter than Melo, I'm not sure he wouldn't be a slightly better rebounder, even in the modern era. I know the league was marginally shorter and a bit less athletic at that time, but Baylor's pre-injury rebounding numbers are resoundingly impressive. Here are his reb/100 possession estimates by year:
'59: 15.3
'60: 15.85
'61: 17.75
'62: 16.3
‘63: 13.9

For comparison, here are some notable big-time big-men and their reb/100 possession estimates for the same years (and relation to Baylor's avg):
Pettit
'59: 17.1 (+1.8)
'60: 16.9 (+1.05)
'61: 18.9 (+1.15)
'62: 17.1 (+0.8)
‘63: 16.0 (+2.1)

Wilt
'59: na
'60: 20.9 (+5.05)
'61: 20.7 (+2.95)
'62: 19.4 (+3.1)
‘63: 19.9 (+6.0)

Russell
'59: 20.2 (+4.9)
'60: 19.9 (+4.05)
'61: 19.3 (+1.55)
'62: 16.3 (+2.8)
‘63: 19.9 (+6.0)

Wayne Embry
'59: 15.5 (+0.2)
'60: 17.1 (+1.25)
'61: 15.1 (-2.65)
'62: 14.3 (-2.0)
‘63: 15.0 (+1.1)

Walter Dukes
'59: 16.7 (+1.4)
'60: 16.1 (+0.25)
'61: 19.2 (+1.45)
'62: 16.4 (+0.1)
‘63: 15.7 (+1.8)

Dolph Schayes
'59: 14.4 (-0.9)
'60: 13.2 (-2.65)
'61: 11.9 (-5.85)
'62: 11.05 (-5.25)

Bailey Howell
'59: na
'60: 13.1 (-2.75)
'61: 14.3 (-3.45)
'62: 13.5 (-2.8)
‘63: 12.2 (-1.7)

When viewing that I'd note two things: every single one of those guys is taller than Elgin, and every single one of them was more a low-post player on one or both ends (so presumably would more frequently [than Elgin] be in the position to grab rebounds). And yet he's at least in the neighborhood of all of them except for Wilt and Russell----who are both a) legitimately BIG and b) legitimately freakish athletes, and c) considered on the short-list of greatest rebounders ever (and even Russell isn't far ahead of him in '61, fwiw).
Otherwise Baylor's reasonably close to everyone else, and well ahead of Schayes and Howell (though admittedly Schayes is trickling into his post-prime for most of the years referenced here).

He was a thick strong guy, good at creating space with his lower body, could jump (isn't he labeled the "grandfather of hang-time" or some such?), and seems to have had great anticipation for where the rebound was going (a la Jerry Lucas, Fat Lever, and Jason Kidd). All this has me suspecting that Baylor would be special kind of rebounder for the SF position in any era (maybe likened to Shawn Marion in this regard).


Basic WOWY:
‘59: 33-37 (.471) with, 0-2 without
‘60: 23-47 (.329) with, 2-3 (.400) without
‘61: 34-39 (.466) with, 2-4 (.333) without
‘62: 37-11 (.771) with, 17-15 (.531) without **West missed only 5 games, no one else in the regular rotation missed more than 2 games
‘63: 52-28 (.650) with


The Lakers in ‘58 were 19-53 with an SRS of -5.78. And then they obtained rookie Elgin Baylor.
In ‘59--with Baylor being the only relevant player acquisition--they improved by 14 games to 33-39, SRS of -1.42 (+4.36 improvement); also made it to the finals (defeating the 2.89 SRS defending champion Hawks 4-2 along the way). That strikes me as indication of fairly significant impact.

The big criticism on Baylor has been his offensive efficiency (relative to his astronomical volume), and whether he was really “helping” the offense.

The Laker team offensive rating improved with rookie Baylor by +2.8 (+1.4 in rORTG terms) in ‘59. I won’t claim that Baylor always “helped the offense optimally” to the best of his abilities; but I do think he helped it. Obviously other metrics of offensive production/efficiency suggest Baylor was a “big deal” (more on that below)......but what I’m beginning to wonder about is whether or not Baylor had a defensive impact that hasn’t been properly appreciated.

Maybe his capability as a rebounder eliminated a lot of second-chance points for opponents????

idk, but something I noted is that the Laker team rDRTG improved by -2.8 in ‘59. In ‘58, they were 8th of 8 defensively, DRtg +4.5 over league avg and +2.5 over the next worse team.
In ‘59, improved to +1.7 over league avg (6th of 8).
They would continue to improve defensively over the next couple of seasons with acquisitions of Jerry West and aging Ray Felix. And then interestingly their defense appears to suffer slightly in ‘62 when Baylor misses significant games:
In ‘61, the Laker DRtg is -1.3 to league average (again: minus is good), 4th of 8.
In ‘62 Baylor misses 32 games and the Laker DRtg falls a little: just -0.3 vs league average (though still 4th of 9).
In ‘63: no more big Ray Felix in playing significant minutes in the middle and Jerry West misses 25 games (things you’d expect to hurt the team defense); they otherwise obtain guard Dick Barnett, and the only other change from the previous year is that Baylor is healthy (doesn’t miss a game)…….and the team DRtg improves to -1.2 vs league average (3rd of 9).
And then beginning in ‘64 (perhaps non-coincidentally just as Baylor begins to be significantly hampered by knee injuries, which causes his overall effectiveness to suffer, as seen by sudden drop in PER, etc), the Laker team DRtg takes a sudden dip……...And it would never recovery to a better than average team defense (even with big bodies like Darrall Imhoff and Mel Counts) until ‘69 when they obtained Wilt Chamberlain.

So I’m starting to wonder if Baylor had a bigger impact defensively than he’s typically given credit for.
And I sort of wonder if he isn't like Carmelo Anthony scoring, Shawn Marion on the glass, with defense somewhere in between (and a little better passer than either). That's an awfully good player.

Anyway…..
Otherwise, I promised some tidbits regarding his overall production and efficiency during his prime years:

In ‘59 and rookie Elgin Baylor had the 2nd-highest PER in the league, behind only a peak Bob Pettit.
In ‘60 he had the 2nd-highest PER in the league, behind only Wilt Chamberlain.
In ‘61: he had the highest PER (even ahead of Wilt, not to mention Pettit and rookie Oscar Robertson).
‘62 and ‘63: 2nd-best PER in the league both years, behind only Wilt Chamberlain (even ahead of triple-double season Robertson, as well as Pettit and Walt Bellamy’s insane rookie season).

That’s a super-impressive 5-year span. Yes, he drops off quite a bit after, but it’s not as though he faded into obscurity or ineffectiveness in subsequent years. He was a relevant player until ‘70. So…..


For another comparison:

Kevin Durant (‘10-’14) rs
Per 100 Possessions: 38.7 pts, 10.0 reb, 5.1 ast on 61.7% TS% (+8.0% on league avg)
26.9 PER, .250 WS/48 in 38.8 mpg

Elgin Baylor (‘59-’63) rs
Estimated Per 100 Possessions: 30.3 pts, 15.7 reb, 4.2 ast on 49.9 TS% (+2.7%)
26.1 PER, .195 WS/48 in 42.1 mpg


Kevin Durant (‘10-’14) playoffs
Per 100 Possessions: 35.8 pts, 10.2 reb, 5.2 ast on .583 TS% (+4.6%)
24.4 PER, .189 WS/48 in 42.3 mpg

Elgin Baylor (‘59-’63) playoffs
Estimated Per 100 Possessions: 30.4 pts, 13.2 reb, 3.5 ast on 51.2 TS% (+4.0%)
25.1 PER, .183 WS/48 in 44.0 mpg


Spoiler:
When thinking about what has driven improvement in the league......integration has helped, but I suspect most of us agree that probably the biggest factor is size of player pool.

And obviously things like scheming/coaching/strategy/analytics have helped toward getting players guided toward better and more effective outcomes. Skills training, shot mechanics, etc, have also evolved, improving the all-around quality of play. However, these latter things are all EXTRINSIC factors: they are things that players from 50-60 years ago would have absorbed if they had been immersed in them from day one (like today's players).

Otherwise, increasing the size of the player pool that the league can tap into is probably the largest driver of improved player quality.

And I think arguably the biggest driver in player pool size is the popularity of the game. As such, I think there is something to be said for those players who were, quite simply, big draws: the guys that put butts in seats, and who inspired the imaginations of younger generations of players.

I bring this up as another small plug for Elgin Baylor. In his time, he was certainly someone who fits this distinction. I'll offer one quote:

John Taylor [from The Rivalry: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Golden Age of Basketball (p. 206-207)] wrote:“.....Fans specifically came to see him [Baylor]. When he was on military duty and playing sporadically, they called the box office before games to ask if he would be appearing. The Lakers front office had run figures calculating Baylor’s ability to sell tickets, and they determined that in games when he did not play, the Lakers drew an average of 2,000 fewer fans. That amounted to approximately $6,000 per game, or $200,000 over the course of a season….”


I'd place the career of either of these guys ahead of that of Rick Barry. Will try to post wrt that stance later.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:01 pm

There was someone who brought up the "carried" argument in favour of Rick Barry a couple threads back, but I couldn't find the post.

Anyway, I'm of the opinion that Barry gets an awful lot of mileage out of "carried bunch of nobodies" [or similar] type of sentiments (which probably aren't fully warranted).

Firstly, I'd say that NOBODY wins the title with "a bunch of nobodies" [or whatever]. Great players can "carry a bunch of nobodies" to a decent record and a playoff berth or similar; but not a title.
Not even Duncan or Hakeem (who are probably the closest to any such claim) can truly say that. It's disrespectful to literally thousands of actual good NBA players to refer to them by such terms.

For '03 Duncan.....
Last legs of David Robinson was still a pretty valuable low-minute player. Though they struggled in the playoffs, young Tony Parker, Malik Rose, and Stephen Jackson were all decent NBA players in '03 (league avg or slightly better). Bruce Bowen is a nice-fitting 3&D role player who I would assess as a "decent starter-level player" overall. Speedy Claxton, who they had for the 2nd half of the season, was a decent (league avg at least) NBA player. Guys like old Steve Kerr and Steve Smith are not bad role players considering they only have to fill the role of being 8th-12th in playing time (it indicates a pinch of depth).
It's not what you'd call a "title-worthy" supporting cast, no; it's decidedly weak for a supporting cast that actually did win the title. But it's not a collection of scrubs.


Similar for '94 Hakeem....
Robert Horry, Otis Thorpe, and Kenny Smith are all at least fair/decent starter-level players in '94 (considering his defensive acumen and tendency for playoff rising, Horry probably slightly BETTER than that; and probably Thorpe too, considering his ability to play at a better than average level while shouldering ~36 mpg).
Rooke Sam Cassell and Mario Elie provided a bit more back-court punch (fair/decent players). Vernon Maxwell chucked a lot, but was a good defender.
While there are certainly no great players or "All-Stars" in that backcourt, it's pretty darn good backcourt depth that you can go to your FOURTH-BEST guard and still have someone as decent as Vernon Maxwell or Mario Elie.
And then considering there was the starting frontcourt of Hakeem/Horry/Thorpe.......that's not too shabby.

When it comes to title teams, I think people too easily fall into the fallacy of thinking that if you aren't an All-Star, you're complete trash. It's just not true.

And again, I am NOT saying this is a strong title-winning supporting cast. But this is not a bunch of "scrubs" or "nobodies", as the narrative usually runs.


For '75 Rick Barry....
Clifford Ray was a fine defensive center. In '74, with 32-year-old Nate Thurmond at C, the Warriors were at +0.7 rDRTG [8th of 17]. Then they traded Thurmond for Ray [though this wasn't the only change, to be fair], and the improved to -0.4 rDRTG [5th of 18].
Meanwhile, the '74 Bulls [with Clifford Ray] had been a -4.1 rDRTG [1st in the league]. In '75, with 33-year-old Nate Thurmond in his place, they fall slightly to -3.3 rDRTG [2nd of 18]. I realize these aren't big changes, but were talking about a swap with Nate Thurmond, who was [at worst] in his early post-prime in these years.
George Johnson was a nice defensive role player to have as back-up C. Jamaal Wilkes wasn't a bad defender, too.

In short, this was a quite strong defensive frontcourt. I won't deny that Barry "carried" [to a degree, though I really hate that word] the offense. But they won, in no small part, because of their defense; especially in the late playoff rounds.

In the rs, they were the 2nd-rated offense (and as mentioned: the 5th-rated defense). And in the WCSF, too, it was their offense that carried the day, and Barry was brilliant in the series: 27.0 ppg @ 54.9% TS (pretty good for the time period) with 7.0 apg, leading the team by comfortable margins in both points and assists, and leading everyone who scored 8+ ppg in TS, too.

In the WCF [against the Bulls], the offense mostly maintained its rs standard (at least relative to the opponent faced); that is: it was a significant drop in raw terms from their rs standard, but they're facing the 2nd-rated defense here. Relative to the Bulls defense, they performed as a +2.2 rORTG (they'd been +2.7 in the rs).
Barry averaged 28.4 ppg, though on only 46.6% TS, with 5.9 apg.
Wilkes helped out with 15.3 ppg @ 51.1% TS, and Charles Johnson delivered 13.7 ppg @ 49.2% TS, and Butch Beard averaged 10.9 ppg @ 50.6% TS. Jeff Mullins averaged 8.1 ppg @ 49.7% TS.
Overall, those four guys combined for 48 ppg @ >50% TS [more than 3.5% above Barry], as well as 8.6 apg. So he wasn't entirely without help there.

And at any rate, their DEFENSE out-shined that, performing as a -4.2 rDRTG in the series. This could be said to have been key in game 7 in particular, when the Warrior offense managed just a -6.2 rORTG [scoring just 83 pts].......but they won anyway, because their defense performed as a monstrous -13.4 rDRTG, holding the Bulls to just 79.

Barry, in that game, scored 22 pts @ 42.2% TS, with 4 assists.
Jamaal Wilkes delivered a game-high 23 pts @ 55.4% TS, with 3 assists.

Where might Rick Barry and the '75 Warriors have been without Jamaal Wilkes offensive performance and/or the total team defense's performance in game 7?
I strongly suspect Barry would scarcely have received mentions at this early stage of the list without those things.


Then in the Finals their offense underperformed (+0.1 rORTG, relative to the team faced). In other words they were a completely average offense in the Finals, though I will admit it was Rick Barry "carrying" that average offense.
But that's OK, because their defense was once again monstrous, performing as a -10.3 rDRTG; and that carried the series.


Ultimately I just don't agree with the narrative/sentiment (to say nothing of this being a sort of watered down league in '75).

I would ask our proctor, Doctor MJ---who I've came at hard at times in the past for a perceived lack of consistency---this question......because I recall him once taking the "hottish" take that Paul Seymour was actually the best player on the '55 Nats, because they won on the strength of their defense.

Now, the '75 Warriors are not as polarized (Offense vs Defense) as the '55 Nats; but at the same time, the defensive gap between Seymour and Schayes (in absolute value) is likely not as large as that between Barry and say.....Clifford Ray.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#14 » by AEnigma » Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:28 pm

Willing to entertain the closing premise there if only because I see strong indicators that the team relied more on Thurmond than it did on Barry even in 1974 (and my confidence in that assertion grows with each preceding year).

That said, 1975 Barry was also demonstrably providing more value to his team than 1974 Barry, and I do not appreciate the implicit framing of Ray as some approximate equal to Thurmond while ignoring the numerous rotation changes on both teams (Thurmond missed time for the Warriors in 1974, Love and Van Lier missed time for the Bulls in 1975 and the roster was aging negatively, Wilkes was added to the Warriors in 1975 and most of the rest of the rotation was aging positively…).

He does get a lot of mileage out of that near loss in the conference finals, but on a similar note, he was unlucky to lose the conference finals the following year.

And yes, in saying that I recognise Baylor may have the least “lucky” playoff track record of anyone, but for as impressive as rookie Wilkes was, and for as reliable as Ray was, those presences do not rise to the bar of Jerry West for me.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#15 » by tsherkin » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:09 am

AEnigma wrote:He also scored more efficiently, which I do think reflects well given Pettit was typically the efficient one,


By what measure?

Baylor was a career 49.4% TS, 102 TS+ guy in the RS. 49.7% TS in the playoffs. Pettit was a 51.1% TS, 109 TS+ guy in the RS and 50.1% TS guy in the playoffs. He was more efficient than Baylor, and also better relative to his peers.

Pettit does have two MVPs and led his team to a title, but I suspect he would have accomplished none of that in Baylor’s position.


Even with a half-decade of Jerry West on his team before he retired?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#16 » by AEnigma » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:51 am

tsherkin wrote:
AEnigma wrote:He also scored more efficiently, which I do think reflects well given Pettit was typically the efficient one,

By what measure?

By how they played head-to-head. Even against the Celtics, Pettit was only slightly more efficient than 1959-63 Baylor on notably lower volume and against less potent defensive iterations of the team. Baylor was the better scorer in his prime, which also did not really extend beyond Pettit’s.

Baylor was a career 49.4% TS, 102 TS+ guy in the RS. 49.7% TS in the playoffs. Pettit was a 51.1% TS, 109 TS+ guy in the RS and 50.1% TS guy in the playoffs. He was more efficient than Baylor, and also better relative to his peers.

Why you think career averages are useful here? Baylor played 54 postseason games at an age older than Pettit was when his relevant postseason career ended (31, 1963), played tougher competition, played tougher defences… I feel like you are not actually bothering to try to understand the point. I think Baylor aged poorly, but if I am going to make mention of Baylor not keeping pace with the league’s development, then it seems worth mentioning that he looked better than the guy who multiple people praised for keeping up with league development before dropping off much more steeply and retiring early.

Pettit does have two MVPs and led his team to a title, but I suspect he would have accomplished none of that in Baylor’s position.

Even with a half-decade of Jerry West on his team before he retired?

Is he the leader with a half decade of Jerry West? Only at the start — and the start is when Baylor was at his own peak.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#17 » by tsherkin » Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:56 am

AEnigma wrote:By how they played head-to-head


That seems a fairly arbitrary method of evaluation. Did they even guard one another?


. Even against the Celtics, Pettit was only slightly more efficient than 1959-63 Baylor on notably lower volume and against less potent defensive iterations of the team. Baylor was the better scorer in his prime, which also did not really extend beyond Pettit’s.

Why you think career averages are useful here?


Why do you think they aren't? Pettit maintained a higher level of efficiency over a longer period of time and gained separation from his peers. Baylor fell off after a few years into his career, while Pettit was still in the league no less.

I feel like you are not actually bothering to try to understand the point.


And I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees, but here we are.

Is he the leader with a half decade of Jerry West? Only at the start — and the start is when Baylor was at his own peak.


I dunno, if it were me, I'd want the more-efficient PF than the volume-shooting SF/PF who epitomized how not to deploy your offense over much of his career.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#18 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:34 am

Vote: Anthony Davis
Insane peak that he's maintained his whole career other than his rookie year when healthy. 2-way playoff monster who scored more than Kobe, was more efficient than Steph, and has a higher on/off than LeBron. Just played basketball at a different level than most of this group.

Alternate: Manu Ginobili
I know he's not actually going to go yet, but I've recently moved him into my top 30 and he also has an insane peak. From the 2004 Olympics through the 2005 NBA Finals, he was the best player in the world and I don't even think it's that close. Has a career NetRtg over 10 in the regular season and an on/off over 10 in the playoffs. His incredible impact actually went up when he started more games so the 6th man role may have hurt him more than it helped him by staggering him from Duncan so much.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#19 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:42 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:How soon will people be nominating Drexler?


I think he's close. I'd have him as the best candidate from his era ahead of Isiah, McHale, and Payton. If you go by position, I think I'd still take Westbrook ahead of him just for the insane peak. That stretch from 2014-2018 is still tough to match.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #36 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 10/22/23) 

Post#20 » by AEnigma » Fri Oct 20, 2023 4:44 am

tsherkin wrote:
AEnigma wrote:By how they played head-to-head

That seems a fairly arbitrary method of evaluation. Did they even guard one another?

Why would they need to? What is arbitrary about looking at who was the better player in a series? In such a peaks focused iteration of the project, yes, I think it is relevant that one looked better than the other when they faced off.

Why you think career averages are useful here?

Why do you think they aren't?

Because Baylor would not be a better player having retired several years earlier.

Pettit maintained a higher level of efficiency over a longer period of time and gained separation from his peers. Baylor fell off after a few years into his career, while Pettit was still in the league no less.

Pettit maintained his prime level longer, yes. He also had a much more precipitous end to his career and was worse when both were in their primes. Does Pettit look as “good” if he starts his career in 1959? Does Baylor look as “bad” if he starts his in 1955? Pettit entered the NBA two years younger than Baylor did and was done as a player three years younger — is that supposed to be to his credit?

I feel like you are not actually bothering to try to understand the point.

And I feel like you're missing the forest for the trees, but here we are.

Sick bromide, but maybe if you had tried to understand the point you would not be so confused by this field trip to a specific section of trees.

Is he the leader with a half decade of Jerry West? Only at the start — and the start is when Baylor was at his own peak.

I dunno, if it were me, I'd want the more-efficient PF than the volume-shooting SF/PF who epitomized how not to deploy your offense over much of his career.

Okay, Pettit would and did make for a better second option scorer. When was that disputed? When was that the subject? If you want to go focus in on your own little grove, you can do that separately.
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