Who are the real Contenders this year?

[trex_8063]

Now that the season is just barely underway, please state who you think are the big contenders for the 2024 title, and why......


For starters, I'll say I'm wondering about Boston.

Horford, obviously, is old. But he's maintained himself fantastically well, still seems to move pretty good [defensively], and has done a good job refining his limited-minute role/fit within this Celtic team. So he's still got some value.

Jrue also has probably seen his best years gone by already, though 33 is not fully over the hill.

The rest of the team is young and potentially near to their peaks. Tatum/Brown/Porzingis/Holiday/Horford/White.......on paper anyway, that looks like a REALLY strong 6-man group. The combination of shooting/spacing and defensive versatility looks fairly elite, anyway, plus a couple/three guys that can score in isolation.
Not a ton of depth this year, though they have 2 or 3 additional decent bench pieces (Pritchard, Hauser, Kornet are not bad, considering they're filling just the 7-9 spots on the roster). idk, curious to see how they do.


Of course Denver and Milwaukee have to be considered threats too.
I'll be curious to see how things shake out for Golden State and the Lakers, as well.

I'd like to think that the core of Donovan/Garland/Mobley (with a few decent supporting pieces) can break out, but I don't think they will.

The Clippers have a decent collection of talent again, but a fair bit of age/miles on those legs, with a number on their roster known for bodies breaking down in the course of a full season. So there too I'm doubtful.

Phoenix, I think has gutted itself of too many important pieces to hold on to an aging superstar. They've got too much shooting/scoring (not enough ball to go around), and not enough of, well......everything else, imo.


Boston, Denver, Milwaukee.........if I had to settle on three with the best chance. I'd probably go with the winning pedigree of Golden State as my 4th. Lakers my dark-horse 5th pick.

[trex_8063]

I should probably have at least made bare mention of Miami, as it seems you can never rule them out entirely. But......Butler, Lowry, Love, all getting so old. Their games are going to be slipping by at least tiny degrees and/or bodies giving out by the end of the year. I don't think they make waves this time.

EDIT: One more potentially exciting piece--->New Orleans??? If Zion can actually stay healthy (I know that's a BIG "if"), could they have a snowball's chance??

[RCM88x]

I think Phoenix definitely can fit into the top tier here. They've probably got the best top 2 in the game right now (Booker > Dame imo) and I actually like what they did this offseason. Could they just be Clippers 2.0? We'll see.

To me I'd rank contenders as follows, meaning no one else has a shot:

Denver
Boston
Milwaukee

Phoenix
GS
Clippers
Lakers
Miami

Dallas
Philly

[AEnigma]

Hm, based on the games so far, I think the contenders are the Nuggets, Celtics, Suns, Cavaliers, Pelicans, Heat, Clippers, Pacers, Kings, Raptors, Mavericks, Magic, Hornets, and Thunder. Undecided on the Bucks or 76ers, although I definitely expect to add at least one of them to that list.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Warriors might be a contender if age does not catch up with them.

Warriors may be too undersized particularly at center.

Somebody needs to replace Poole’s scoring but Kuminga was replacing Poole’s scoring in preseason.

[iggymcfrack]

The frontrunners are Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee. I think it's very likely the champion comes out of that group. After that it's tough.

I'd say Cleveland, the Lakers, Golden State, and New Orleans all have a decent shot. Anyone else, honestly, I'd be very surprised.

[RCM88x]

The frontrunners are Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee. I think it's very likely the champion comes out of that group. After that it's tough.

I'd say Cleveland, the Lakers, Golden State, and New Orleans all have a decent shot. Anyone else, honestly, I'd be very surprised.

Cavs and Pels have no shot. What about them says contender in your mind?

[xinxin]

The way Denver manhandled the Lakers in the opener, looks like the Nuggets have a serious shot at a repeat.

Boston & Bucks look pretty good too.

After those 3, I have the Suns, OKC , Lakers , Warriors, Sixers having an outside shot


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[Colbinii]

Hm, based on the games so far, I think the contenders are the Nuggets, Celtics, Suns, Cavaliers, Pelicans, Heat, Clippers, Pacers, Kings, Raptors, Mavericks, Magic, Hornets, and Thunder. Undecided on the Bucks or 76ers, although I definitely expect to add at least one of them to that list.

Looks like it is Milwaukee and not the 76ers.

Also, Lakers moving into the group with a win of a contender in Phoenix and Phoenix dropping by 50%

[iggymcfrack]

The frontrunners are Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee. I think it's very likely the champion comes out of that group. After that it's tough.

I'd say Cleveland, the Lakers, Golden State, and New Orleans all have a decent shot. Anyone else, honestly, I'd be very surprised.

Cavs and Pels have no shot. What about them says contender in your mind?

Cavs had the second best SRS in the NBA last year and are very young. Garland could still take a leap. Pelicans had the best record in the West before Zion went down, are very young, and could easily compete for a title if Zion can stay healthy through the playoffs.


I kinda had a feeling that the Moriah Mills scandal would have him partying less and spending more time in the gym and it looks like he came into the season in great shape. Also, if feels like they kinda babied him with injuries in the fast with a focus on protecting the asset and getting more picks, but that time is up and New Orleans is ready to compete now.

[RCM88x]

The frontrunners are Denver, Boston, and Milwaukee. I think it's very likely the champion comes out of that group. After that it's tough.

I'd say Cleveland, the Lakers, Golden State, and New Orleans all have a decent shot. Anyone else, honestly, I'd be very surprised.

Cavs and Pels have no shot. What about them says contender in your mind?

Cavs had the second best SRS in the NBA last year and are very young. Garland could still take a leap. Pelicans had the best record in the West before Zion went down, are very young, and could easily compete for a title if Zion can stay healthy through the playoffs.


I kinda had a feeling that the Moriah Mills scandal would have him partying less and spending more time in the gym and it looks like he came into the season in great shape. Also, if feels like they kinda babied him with injuries in the fast with a focus on protecting the asset and getting more picks, but that time is up and New Orleans is ready to compete now.

You don't think the Cavs performance against the Knicks is more indictive of their playoff potential?

Just hard for me to see the Pels beating one of the top West teams with Zion looking like he has. If he ramps up to be one of the best players in the league, maybe things will be different but I just don't see that happening.

[Owly]

Cavs and Pels have no shot. What about them says contender in your mind?

Cavs had the second best SRS in the NBA last year and are very young. Garland could still take a leap. Pelicans had the best record in the West before Zion went down, are very young, and could easily compete for a title if Zion can stay healthy through the playoffs.


I kinda had a feeling that the Moriah Mills scandal would have him partying less and spending more time in the gym and it looks like he came into the season in great shape. Also, if feels like they kinda babied him with injuries in the fast with a focus on protecting the asset and getting more picks, but that time is up and New Orleans is ready to compete now.

You don't think the Cavs performance against the Knicks is more indictive of their playoff potential?

Not an expert on the team but I wouldn't have thought so.

Is Mitchell more likely 22.9 PER, 6.3 BPM, .176 WS/48 level player off .614 TS% (adjusted slightly in terms of potential playoff production for higher level competition) or 15.7, 4.8, .059 off .518.

Mobley 17.9, 1.7, .151 off .591 or 9.5, -2.2, .036 off .476 ...

Are the Cavs top 7 minutes getters more likely to four players above 16 PER, four above 14 and zero below 10 (adjusted slightly down for playoff competition) or none (0!) above 16, one above 14 and two below 10.

Again don't have an inside track, vague recollection was the Cavs weren't thought of as as good as that SRS number before the series ...

And I haven't closely followed any roster changes ...

But the much larger sample has fewer numbers that look unsustainable. I get that the Cavs playoffs was bad enough to move them down off it. But if, as here, the suggestion is it "more indicative", that their notional real playoff strength being closer to that level seems less likely for it being so bad. So obviously whilst given the above I don't know about any (primarily/exclusively) playoff-based fundamental flaws, injuries can happen etc, I would tilt towards the (much) larger, more varied (e.g. opponent especially, but health status etc), less funky looking sample.

[Funcrusher]

Cavs and Pels have no shot. What about them says contender in your mind?

Cavs had the second best SRS in the NBA last year and are very young. Garland could still take a leap. Pelicans had the best record in the West before Zion went down, are very young, and could easily compete for a title if Zion can stay healthy through the playoffs.


I kinda had a feeling that the Moriah Mills scandal would have him partying less and spending more time in the gym and it looks like he came into the season in great shape. Also, if feels like they kinda babied him with injuries in the fast with a focus on protecting the asset and getting more picks, but that time is up and New Orleans is ready to compete now.

You don't think the Cavs performance against the Knicks is more indictive of their playoff potential?

Just hard for me to see the Pels beating one of the top West teams with Zion looking like he has. If he ramps up to be one of the best players in the league, maybe things will be different but I just don't see that happening.

I think with regards to the cavs, it all hinges on Mitchell. In Utah he generally elevated his game in the playoffs, so i know he struggled against the knicks last year, but given the challenge of being a heavily guard reliant offense with not very many complementary perimeter threats (something that finally reared it's ugly head in the playoffs), i'm willing to give him a mulligan and work under the assumption that that performance was the outlier. And as iggy said, it's very possible guys like Garland and Mobley(who already looks incredible defensively this season thus far), take that next leap as stars.

Also, genuinely curious, what from your standpoint separates Zion from being one of the very best players in the league already?

[Cavsfansince84]

I expect like most that it will be one of Den, Mil or Bos but..

It wouldn't surprise me much at all if Denver falters before the finals for a few possible reasons:
1. Championship hangover. Repeating is hard.
2. Murray not playing like he did last playoffs.
3. Harder competition in the west most likely. It won't be a semi cake walk this time.
4. I don't think Denver actually improved. It will prob take another atg level playoff run from Jokic for them to do it.

Which would open the door for Mil or Boston but I think I have a lot more faith in the Giannis/Dame combo than the J's. If Giannis and Dame both ball out against Boston I think Mil will beat them somewhat convincingly.

[wafflzgod]

Now that the season is just barely underway, please state who you think are the big contenders for the 2024 title, and why......


For starters, I'll say I'm wondering about Boston.

Horford, obviously, is old. But he's maintained himself fantastically well, still seems to move pretty good [defensively], and has done a good job refining his limited-minute role/fit within this Celtic team. So he's still got some value.

Jrue also has probably seen his best years gone by already, though 33 is not fully over the hill.

The rest of the team is young and potentially near to their peaks. Tatum/Brown/Porzingis/Holiday/Horford/White.......on paper anyway, that looks like a REALLY strong 6-man group. The combination of shooting/spacing and defensive versatility looks fairly elite, anyway, plus a couple/three guys that can score in isolation.
Not a ton of depth this year, though they have 2 or 3 additional decent bench pieces (Pritchard, Hauser, Kornet are not bad, considering they're filling just the 7-9 spots on the roster). idk, curious to see how they do.


Of course Denver and Milwaukee have to be considered threats too.
I'll be curious to see how things shake out for Golden State and the Lakers, as well.

I'd like to think that the core of Donovan/Garland/Mobley (with a few decent supporting pieces) can break out, but I don't think they will.

The Clippers have a decent collection of talent again, but a fair bit of age/miles on those legs, with a number on their roster known for bodies breaking down in the course of a full season. So there too I'm doubtful.

Phoenix, I think has gutted itself of too many important pieces to hold on to an aging superstar. They've got too much shooting/scoring (not enough ball to go around), and not enough of, well......everything else, imo.


Boston, Denver, Milwaukee.........if I had to settle on three with the best chance. I'd probably go with the winning pedigree of Golden State as my 4th. Lakers my dark-horse 5th pick.

To me, the top 3 are the Bucks, Celtics, and the Nuggets. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that I'd be fairly surprised if the champion is not 1 of those 3 teams. However, it is a long NBA season, and unpredictability is guaranteed. There are definitely other teams that I would still consider contenders -- the Suns and Lakers would be at the top of the heap for me...

[ronnymac2]

Bucks and Nuggets. Those are the real contenders. Health permitting, that's your NBA Finals matchup.

I want to give respect to Miami, but they lost a bunch of key pieces. Dark Horse I want to say is Cleveland because they resolved their biggest issue at SF with Strus, but honestly, it is still so dependent on Donovan Mitchell ceding primacy over to the clearly superior offensive player in Garland, and I don't think Mitchell's bball IQ (or contract) will allow that to happen.

I just have to LOL at the Boston mentions. That current Celtic squad couldn't spell the word grit.

[Alatan]

I expect like most that it will be one of Den, Mil or Bos but..

It wouldn't surprise me much at all if Denver falters before the finals for a few possible reasons:
1. Championship hangover. Repeating is hard.
2. Murray not playing like he did last playoffs.
3. Harder competition in the west most likely. It won't be a semi cake walk this time.
4. I don't think Denver actually improved. It will prob take another atg level playoff run from Jokic for them to do it.

Which would open the door for Mil or Boston but I think I have a lot more faith in the Giannis/Dame combo than the J's. If Giannis and Dame both ball out against Boston I think Mil will beat them somewhat convincingly.

How was west a cakewalk? Wolves with 3 allstars, Suns with KD and Booker shooting like he has an aimbot and Lakers with LBJ and AD. If that is a cakewalk the east is a development league.

[EmpireFalls]

tier 1:Denver, Boston

tier 1.5:Milwaukee, Phoenix

tier 2:Golden State

everyone else

[Colbinii]

Bucks and Nuggets. Those are the real contenders. Health permitting, that's your NBA Finals matchup.

I want to give respect to Miami, but they lost a bunch of key pieces. Dark Horse I want to say is Cleveland because they resolved their biggest issue at SF with Strus, but honestly, it is still so dependent on Donovan Mitchell ceding primacy over to the clearly superior offensive player in Garland, and I don't think Mitchell's bball IQ (or contract) will allow that to happen.

I just have to LOL at the Boston mentions. That current Celtic squad couldn't spell the word grit.

Yet Lillard can spell grit?

[Dr Positivity]

The Warriors are a top contender for me, they look pretty deep to me if Kuminga and Moody both have decent seasons.