RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #48 (Kevin McHale)

[Doctor MJ]

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Jimmy Butler


Joel Embiid


Draymond Green


Dwight Howard


Kevin McHale



As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

[AEnigma]

VOTE: Kevin McHale
NOMINATE: Bob Lanier
AltNom: Dave Cowens

Linked a comprehensive case for Bob Lanier featuring production, impact analysis, contemporary accounts, and a long highlights video courtesy of 70sFan. I am happy to see him receive support and attention here.

I continue to be confused by the lack of support for Cowens. We have seen titles for Barry and Gilmore give them a relatively secure standing, and I think it is difficult to argue against Cowens as the top player on the 1976 Celtics even if people are split on him versus Havlicek in 1974. His impact is clear, consistently showcasing twenty-win lift on a Celtics team that otherwise looked mediocre (when contending) to bad (when not) without Cowens. And he is very much a sort of precursor to Draymond, nominated several rounds ago, in how he was a somewhat undersized defensive anchor frequently taking a lead playmaking role to make use of his team’s strong off-ball wings.

[LA Bird]

Vote 1: Dwight Howard
Vote 2: Jimmy Butler
Nom 1: Bob Lanier
Nom 2: Nate Thurmond

Focusing my writeup on Lanier because he has actually been my highest ranked player (nominee or not) for a few rounds now.

Watch on YouTube

Lanier is usually highly regarded offensively but I think he is still underrated on that end. He is one of the most well-rounded center on offense - hook shot from the low post and mid range jumper up to 20 ft, he is a great passer from the high post, and he is both mobile enough to drive from the perimeter and strong enough to establish deep post position in mismatches. And if you are wondering if his skillset translates to actual results, here are Lanier's numbers in his playoff series in Detroit:

26/15/3 on +4.3 rTS% vs 74 Bulls (#1 defense)
20/11/6 on +4.1 rTS% vs 75 Sonics
29/12/4 on +12.9 rTS% vs 76 Bucks
25/13/3 on +10.9 rTS% vs 76 Warriors (#1 defense)
28/17/2 on +15.9 rTS% vs 77 Warriors

That's a multi-year postseason average of 26/14/4 on +9 rTS%, with over half the games against the best defense in the league. Some might say the sample size is too small but you can cherry pick the best 5 consecutive series from any center ever and there aren't a handful who can put up comparable numbers. Lanier is a better first option on offense in the playoffs than Robinson/Ewing and is very arguable against Moses depending on how much you value offensive rebounding vs passing and scoring efficiency. Also, all his monstrous 10+ rTS series came after Dave Bing was traded so the teammate argument can't even be used (not that Bing was particularly good in the first place...)

The bigger concern for Lanier has always been on the defensive end, namely that the Pistons were only an above average defense once during his time there. This is a fair criticism but it's worth keeping in mind that team defensive ratings are not necessarily an accurate measure of an individual player's defense and that the Pistons were a very poorly run franchise ("the worst management in the league" according to Gene Shue). DeBusschere was an all time great defender who was on the Pistons as close as two years before Lanier and despite that, they were still often a subpar defensive team. And the interesting similarity is how big of an impact they both had on their new teams after leaving Detroit:

Pistons traded DeBusschere mid season in 1969 to the Knicks who improved from 0.8 to 8.1 SRS
Pistons traded Lanier mid season in 1980 to the Bucks who improved from 0.9 to 8.8 SRS

I am not arguing Lanier is as good as DeBusschere on defense but the WOWY parallels are striking and it's hard to imagine Lanier being a bad defender for a decade and then making such a huge impact in Milwaukee instantly for no reason. And I don't think people realize how impactful the trade was - 80 Lanier had the highest single season WOWY score of all time behind only peak Walton in ElGee's spreadsheet. And this is despite WOWY being a per game metric and Lanier averaging only 28 mpg in the regular season (36 mpg in playoffs). To be fair, maybe Bucks Lanier's defensive impact was exaggerated because he could spend more energy on defense when he didn't have to carry the offensive load but that would theoretically be offset by a decline in offensive impact due to role too. And he also had strong WOWY in Detroit over multiple seasons so the Milwaukee impact numbers aren't just a fluke. There is a lot of uncertainty but I feel like the data points to him being a solid plus defender whose real value was only revealed when he finally played for a decent franchise. Combine this with his very strong offense and I think Lanier is overdue to being voted in, let alone being nominated.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote 1 - Kevin McHale
Vote 2 - Dwight Howard
Nomination 1 - George Gervin
Nomination 2 - Willis Reed

Ultimately taking McHale over Dwight with his contributions throughout the celtics' several deep playoff and title runs. Devastating offensive player and still fit in with the rest of the Celtics game plan. If Dwight’s prime was slightly longer I might go the other way. I do think dwight peaked in 2011 as an MVP level player though, which is why I have him right behind McHale. Had a small role in the lakers' 2020 title run, but still a positive late career note for him.

Kinda feel like Gervin is slipping through the cracks at this point.

Even though his playoff success leaves something to be desired, he was still an impressive playoff performer, putting up the following from '75-'83 (65 games):

28.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 56% TS, 113 ORtg

In '79, the spurs faced the defending champion bullets in the ECF, with a heartbreaking 2 pt game 7 loss. Gervin scored 42 pts in the game, including 24 in the 2nd half. The spurs and bullets ranked 1st and 2nd in SRS respectively that season.

In '82, the spurs made a mid season trade for talented scorer Mike Mitchell. He would only appear in 57 games for the spurs, and gervin still led the spurs to the 7th best SRS in the league. They would fall to the eventual NBA champion lakers (4th in SRS) in the WCF.

In '83, the spurs (6th in SRS) would again fall to the lakers (3rd in SRS) in the WCF. Gervin and Mitchell both had solid performances in the post season that year, but simply weren't enough for a deep lakers roster that featured magic, kareem, nixon, wilkes, mcadoo and cooper.

Had gervin and gilmore had more time together during each other's primes, i'm sure both would have helped each other to further playoff success.

[Special_Puppy]

Gary Payton seems like the obvious next person to be nominated.
He's number 21 in Weighted RAPTOR WAR which is indicates a long and impactful career albeit with a low peak. He's also number 27 in VORP. Solid two-way player
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/16jsveu/top_100_nba_players_since_1976_according_to/

[trelos6]

Vote: Dwight Howard



One of the best defensive players of all time. His peak was arguably a top 3 player in the league. Offensively,he was limited, but what he did was effective. Great catch radius. Some monster dunks. 20.7 pp75 on +8.7% rTS. In the playoffs, he was still 23.2 pp75 on +10.7% for his 3 year peak. He was a monster down low.

I have him with 3 weak MVP seasons, 8 All NBA, 9 All Star, and 12 All D.

Alternate vote: Embiid

Looking at the players available, only Embiid and Dwight can have arguments to have been the best player in the NBA. Though I don't think Embiid was ever a top 3 player, he's still been roughly in that area for the last few years. His longevity is not great, but his peak gets him here.

Nomination: Neil Johnston. I have Neil here. I won’t nominate him for too many weeks, if he doesn’t get any traction. Basically, he was one of the best offensive players in the early NBA. He was a 20 pp75 +10 rTS% guy for a few seasons. Looking at his WS/48, he has 6 seasons above 0.200, and 4
Above 0.250. Now, he does get a huge knock for era, but honestly, the peak is there. Relative to era, he was a terrific scorer, and rebounder.

Alt. Nom: Ben Wallace . . Big bad Ben. He was a terrific Defensive player, with basically 0 offensive impact. He’s in the discussion as a top 5 defensive player of all time, so just by that he should be considered. Mutombo had more longevity, but I like Wallace’s peak more.

[Samurai]

Vote for #48: Kevin McHale. Six-time All Defensive Team member , three of them on the first team. Was also an excellent low post shooter with an unstoppable plethora of moves. I may be in the minority on this but I also think he could have been a decent 3-point shooter if he had been raised in today's game; he made 36% in 90-91 on over 100 attempts and was a career 80% FT shooter. Not the quickest defender on the perimeter but he made up for it with his freakish wingspan.

Alternate Vote: Dwight Howard. If I were starting a team, he certainly wouldn't be the first center I would pick. But there have now been about a dozen centers chosen so I think Howard should get some serious consideration. DPOY for three consecutive years should be reason enough. But he was also an elite rebounder, leading the league in rebounds/game 5 times and finished in the top ten 13 times. Averaged 20+ points/game 4 times and finished in the top twenty in TS% 9 times despite being a poor FT shooter. He has had some durability issues with injuries, his propensity to draw technicals isn't helpful and he brings some locker room drama, all of which has kept me from nominating him thus far. But I think we are at a point where he deserves some consideration.

Nomination: Paul Arizin. If I gave more credit to being a trailblazer/innovator, he would have been nominated sooner. Entering the league in 1950 when the game was based on 2-hand set shots and very slow offensive sets, Arizin introduced a weapon that continues to be a mainstay in the NBA today: the jump shot. In addition to his shooting proficiency (led the league in FG% once and finished in the top five in TS% 5 times), he was also known as a great leaper, slick ballhandling and tough defense. And while he wasn't an elite rebounder at only 6-4, he still managed to finish in the top twenty in rebounds/game 6 times.

Alternate nomination: Bob Lanier. Just a personal favorite of mine. Had the second best low post hook shot I've ever seen. Feathery soft mid-range jumper. If I had to forge a guess, I could see him being able to shoot 3's like Chris Bosh if he grew up in a more modern era. Decent but not elite rebounder, he set picks that made defenders feel as if they ran into a parked truck.

[iggymcfrack]

There’s a misconception that Draymond only gets credit as a top level player because of his postseason success and the winning he’s done alongside Stephen Curry. That his actual box score stats are pedestrian and wouldn’t be worthy of top 100 consideration. So let’s just compare his box stats to Dwight side by side using the best box tool available, BPM. Draymond has 10 seasons as a starter if you count 2023/24, but that’s only 9 games long and it’s not supposed to count for this project so let’s look at their top 9 seasons instead:

Dwight’s top 9 seasons by BPM:
5.3, 4.5, 4.4, 4.3, 2.8, 2.8, 1.8, 1.4, 1.0

Draymond’s top 9 seasons by BPM:
5.5, 4.9, 3.5, 3.2, 2.8, 1.9, 1.7, 1.4, 0.8

So even in regular season box score stats, they’re comparable. What about in the postseason?

Dwight’s top 9 postseasons by BPM:
6.2, 5.7, 5.0, 3.8, 2.9, 2.4, -0.4, -0.6, -1.0

Draymond’s top 9 postseasons by BPM:
6.8, 5.7, 5.0, 5.0, 4.5, 3.6, 3.1, 2.8, 0.9

Now Draymond has a very clear edge. Again this is just the box score. This doesn’t account for Dwight being one of the lowest IQ players in the league who smashes the ball out of bounds instead of trying to let one of his teammates recover it. It doesn’t account for Draymond having some of the best peak impact stats of anyone in league history and leading his team to 4 championships as the defensive anchor. The box score is the weakest portion of Dray’s case and he still easily outpaces Dwight when it matters most.

[iggymcfrack]

Vote 1: Dwight Howard
Vote 2: Jimmy Butler
Nom 1: Bob Lanier
Nom 2: Nate Thurmond

Focusing my writeup on Lanier because he has actually been my highest ranked player (nominee or not) for a few rounds now.

Watch on YouTube

Lanier is usually highly regarded offensively but I think he is still underrated on that end. He is one of the most well-rounded center on offense - hook shot from the low post and mid range jumper up to 20 ft, he is a great passer from the high post, and he is both mobile enough to drive from the perimeter and strong enough to establish deep post position in mismatches. And if you are wondering if his skillset translates to actual results, here are Lanier's numbers in his playoff series in Detroit:

26/15/3 on +4.3 rTS% vs 74 Bulls (#1 defense)
20/11/6 on +4.1 rTS% vs 75 Sonics
29/12/4 on +12.9 rTS% vs 76 Bucks
25/13/3 on +10.9 rTS% vs 76 Warriors (#1 defense)
28/17/2 on +15.9 rTS% vs 77 Warriors

That's a multi-year postseason average of 26/14/4 on +9 rTS%, with over half the games against the best defense in the league. Some might say the sample size is too small but you can cherry pick the best 5 consecutive series from any center ever and there aren't a handful who can put up comparable numbers. Lanier is a better first option on offense in the playoffs than Robinson/Ewing and is very arguable against Moses depending on how much you value offensive rebounding vs passing and scoring efficiency. Also, all his monstrous 10+ rTS series came after Dave Bing was traded so the teammate argument can't even be used (not that Bing was particularly good in the first place...)

The bigger concern for Lanier has always been on the defensive end, namely that the Pistons were only an above average defense once during his time there. This is a fair criticism but it's worth keeping in mind that team defensive ratings are not necessarily an accurate measure of an individual player's defense and that the Pistons were a very poorly run franchise ("the worst management in the league" according to Gene Shue). DeBusschere was an all time great defender who was on the Pistons as close as two years before Lanier and despite that, they were still often a subpar defensive team. And the interesting similarity is how big of an impact they both had on their new teams after leaving Detroit:

Pistons traded DeBusschere mid season in 1969 to the Knicks who improved from 0.8 to 8.1 SRS
Pistons traded Lanier mid season in 1980 to the Bucks who improved from 0.9 to 8.8 SRS

I am not arguing Lanier is as good as DeBusschere on defense but the WOWY parallels are striking and it's hard to imagine Lanier being a bad defender for a decade and then making such a huge impact in Milwaukee instantly for no reason. And I don't think people realize how impactful the trade was - 80 Lanier had the highest single season WOWY score of all time behind only peak Walton in ElGee's spreadsheet. And this is despite WOWY being a per game metric and Lanier averaging only 28 mpg in the regular season (36 mpg in playoffs). To be fair, maybe Bucks Lanier's defensive impact was exaggerated because he could spend more energy on defense when he didn't have to carry the offensive load but that would theoretically be offset by a decline in offensive impact due to role too. And he also had strong WOWY in Detroit over multiple seasons so the Milwaukee impact numbers aren't just a fluke. There is a lot of uncertainty but I feel like the data points to him being a solid plus defender whose real value was only revealed when he finally played for a decent franchise. Combine this with his very strong offense and I think Lanier is overdue to being voted in, let alone being nominated.

Very good post. I hadn’t really considered Lanier yet, but actually his BPM numbers are surprisingly good. They’re not available for his first 3 years in the league, but the 5 years following that he puts up: 7.1, 6.1, 5.1, 5.4, and 5.4. And if we look his first 6 playoff runs where BPM’s available he looks even better: 6.5, 6.0, 5.9, 8.5, 6.6, and 8.2. If we compare that to someone like George Gervin who’s been getting more love as the next guy to go from the ‘70s who’s also not known for his defense, he never had a regular season with a BPM over 5 and while he did have several very good playoff runs, his overall playoff numbers still don’t reach Lanier’s.

I feel like at the very least, Lanier should be the next player nominated from the ‘70s and if his defense is really as much of an add as you say, he should probably be the next player nominated overall. I’ll have to look into this in a little more depth choosing between him and Payton.

[penbeast0]

Much as I loved Gervin, I don't have him going ahead of Lanier. Gervin was a better scorer but center was a more valuable position and Lanier adds a lot more outside of scoring. The comps for Lanier from his prime are Cowens and Unseld/Hayes and in all those cases it's a question of how much you value Lanier's superior offense (he's easily the best of the 4, even including Unseld's GOAT case for pick setting and outlet passing) v. the presumably superior defense (and team results) of the other three.

[penbeast0]

Vote: Kevin McHale: Scoring, defense, rings, consistency, a willingness to play roles that may not maximize his own value in order to help his team win.

Alt: Joel Embiid Changing vote. Had not realized Embiid had done that well in the playoffs. Bought into the playoff failure story without checking.


Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Alt: Pau Gasol: Even without international play, taking the Lakers to those titles with Kobe is impressive and a strong #2 which I prefer to a bad #1.

[Doctor MJ]

So, I'll probably end up voting my same guys again but I will say, now that Jimmy Butler is nominated:

Hard for me personally to argue for Embiid over Butler because of the combination of a) Butler having much longer longevity, and b) Butler having far more playoff success. Yes it's a team game, but we shouldn't brush off the fact that Miami was not supposed to have more such success than Philly.

To lay the number out:

Number of playoff series winning as a Top 5 minutes guy on the team:

Butler 11 (8 of which have come since splitting from Embiid)
Embiid 2

Completely understand why one would see Embiid on a higher tier based on the regular season - winning the MVP & all - but the playoffs are generally how we judge guys when all is said and done, and it's hard to imagine a case for Embiid having a better playoff career than Butler.

[trex_8063]

Induction vote: Kevin McHale (I think)
Honestly, he and Butler, and Howard, and Embiid all feel very close. So I reserve the right to switch this one around. I like Kev's ability as a semi-versatile super-elite volume scorer, combined with fairly versatile and semi-elite defense. His longevity profile isn't bad (among this group of candidates), and obviously he's got a lot of team accomplishments to his credit (indeed, any telling of the history of the league is not complete with considerable mention of him).

So he feels maybe the best of who's available, though not sure.


Alternate induction vote (throws dart....): Jimmy Butler
Jimmy's got a damn complete game, significant playoff over-achiever. His effective longevity is a bit damaged by taking a few years to get really good and then durability issues later, but it's still not bad in a field that contains Embiid and Draymond (and McHale and Howard, to a degree).

I might switch depending on prevailing winds and/or change of heart. All four [except Draymond] feel very close to me.


NOMINATION: Pau Gasol
Easy pick for me. Feels like we're way overdue to not at least have him on the table.
I'm voting for McHale here, though have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments, too.

(EDIT)Alt. nomination: Gary Payton
I'll try to copy/paste some stuff later. But easily a worthy candidate at this stage, imo.


Some thoughts on Robert Parish......
(this was originally justification for making him my alternate nomination; that was before I realized Gary Payton is still not on the board)
Now begins the long and lonely task of trying to drum up support for another longevity giant.
Suffice to say that given his superior rebounding, more than capable scoring and defense, similar team accomplishments, and FAR superior longevity.......wherever McHale is, Parish should definitely not be far behind [if at all], imo.

[AEnigma]

Jimmy's got a damn complete game, significant playoff over-achiever. His effective longevity is a bit damaged by taking a few years to get really good and then durability issues later, but it's still not bad in a field that contains Embiid and Draymond (and McHale and Howard, to a degree).

I might switch depending on prevailing winds and/or change of heart. All four [except Draymond] feel very close to me.

Odd note to me. Butler was drafted one year before Draymond. Neither became starters until their third season. To this point, Butler has started in 663 regular season games, and Draymond has started in 617; if we ignore starts, Butler has only played one more game than Draymond. Butler has played 3500 minutes more in the regular season, but Draymond has an extra 900 minutes in the postseason, and I think team context is worth a mention (Draymond averaged roughly as many minutes as Steph and Klay did from 2015-19 as a consequence of coaches playing starters less in blowouts).

I have Butler over Draymond, but not by much, because whatever longevity advantage Butler has feels quite marginal.

[penbeast0]

McHale v. Parish . . . I tend to favor players with one outstanding skill (okay two outstanding skills as single skilled players seem to limited for top 100 consideration) rather than generalists that do a lot of things fairly well and nothing really spectacular. It seems you can work the team around the two great thing players, maximizing that effect and minimizing their flaws. Thus McHale gives you both outstanding post scoring moves and superior defensive impact and versatility; Parish just doesn't seem to have anything that he is great at. Pretty good at everything (except passing, but McHale doesn't bring that either), but not great.

[WintaSoldier1]

Not huge on butler, He’s a really nice all around player.

Struggles against wings with size who can’t bully down in the mid post area.Otherwise he’s a really good player who’s keen at dominant through spot hunting over & over throughout an entire game. His poor 3 point shooting for a couple of years actually aided him in my opinion as it forced him to emphasize the mid range/down low bully aspect of his game and get more creative with his off ball movement to get to his spots and then use his footwork and size as a leverage points for offensive creation.

He’s a decent passer but he’s only a good passer when he’s playing within the flow of the offense; He can go into Hero Ball mode often and during crunch time it can really alienate his team from doing anything to aid the chances at winning.

The way he generates some of his shots can be “unimpressive”, as they’re mostly running the floor buckets and using his size as leverage. But I don’t fault him for not having the offensive skillset or flat out athletic ability some other all-time legend players have had on this list.

Couldn’t really speak on his defensive ability so someone help me out about how good it is over the years; I think he’s better than Draymond as someone else mentioned earlier.

He’ll be on the ballot for me for at least another 2-3 rounds as Mchale is running away with this one and Dwight should get his moment within 3 rounds

[trex_8063]

Jimmy's got a damn complete game, significant playoff over-achiever. His effective longevity is a bit damaged by taking a few years to get really good and then durability issues later, but it's still not bad in a field that contains Embiid and Draymond (and McHale and Howard, to a degree).

I might switch depending on prevailing winds and/or change of heart. All four [except Draymond] feel very close to me.

Odd note to me. Butler was drafted one year before Draymond. Neither became starters until their third season. To this point, Butler has started in 663 regular season games, and Draymond has started in 617; if we ignore starts, Butler has only played one more game than Draymond. Butler has played 3500 minutes more in the regular season, but Draymond has an extra 900 minutes in the postseason, and I think team context is worth a mention (Draymond averaged roughly as many minutes as Steph and Klay did from 2015-19 as a consequence of coaches playing starters less in blowouts).

I have Butler over Draymond, but not by much, because whatever longevity advantage Butler has feels quite marginal.

Agree. Note I didn't say he had a notable advantage [or ANY advantage, technically]. I merely said his effective longevity of quality is "not bad" in this field.

fwiw, I probably am considering minutes in my mind, to a degree. If one guy has ~600 starts in 10 years at 35 mpg, and another guy ~600 starts in 10 years at 29 mpg [or similar comp], I'm probably mentally edging the longevity [or "availability"] case in favour of the first guy.

[HeartBreakKid]

Jimmy's got a damn complete game, significant playoff over-achiever. His effective longevity is a bit damaged by taking a few years to get really good and then durability issues later, but it's still not bad in a field that contains Embiid and Draymond (and McHale and Howard, to a degree).

I might switch depending on prevailing winds and/or change of heart. All four [except Draymond] feel very close to me.

Odd note to me. Butler was drafted one year before Draymond. Neither became starters until their third season. To this point, Butler has started in 663 regular season games, and Draymond has started in 617; if we ignore starts, Butler has only played one more game than Draymond. Butler has played 3500 minutes more in the regular season, but Draymond has an extra 900 minutes in the postseason, and I think team context is worth a mention (Draymond averaged roughly as many minutes as Steph and Klay did from 2015-19 as a consequence of coaches playing starters less in blowouts).

I have Butler over Draymond, but not by much, because whatever longevity advantage Butler has feels quite marginal.

Yeah, I don't see Draymond Green lacking in longevity in that comparison . He has been a more healthy player than Butler and they've been in the league the same amount of time. Probably became a great player earlier than Butler as well.

[Clyde Frazier]

Spoiler:

Vote 1 - Kevin McHale
Vote 2 - Dwight Howard
Nomination 1 - George Gervin
Nomination 2 - Willis Reed

Ultimately taking McHale over Dwight with his contributions throughout the celtics' several deep playoff and title runs. Devastating offensive player and still fit in with the rest of the Celtics game plan. If Dwight’s prime was slightly longer I might go the other way. I do think dwight peaked in 2011 as an MVP level player though, which is why I have him right behind McHale. Had a small role in the lakers' 2020 title run, but still a positive late career note for him.

Kinda feel like Gervin is slipping through the cracks at this point.

Even though his playoff success leaves something to be desired, he was still an impressive playoff performer, putting up the following from '75-'83 (65 games):

28.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 56% TS, 113 ORtg

In '79, the spurs faced the defending champion bullets in the ECF, with a heartbreaking 2 pt game 7 loss. Gervin scored 42 pts in the game, including 24 in the 2nd half. The spurs and bullets ranked 1st and 2nd in SRS respectively that season.

In '82, the spurs made a mid season trade for talented scorer Mike Mitchell. He would only appear in 57 games for the spurs, and gervin still led the spurs to the 7th best SRS in the league. They would fall to the eventual NBA champion lakers (4th in SRS) in the WCF.

In '83, the spurs (6th in SRS) would again fall to the lakers (3rd in SRS) in the WCF. Gervin and Mitchell both had solid performances in the post season that year, but simply weren't enough for a deep lakers roster that featured magic, kareem, nixon, wilkes, mcadoo and cooper.

Had gervin and gilmore had more time together during each other's primes, i'm sure both would have helped each other to further playoff success

Updated my post to include support for a Gervin nomination.

[Owly]

Spoiler:

Vote 1 - Kevin McHale
Vote 2 - Dwight Howard
Nomination 1 - George Gervin
Nomination 2 - Willis Reed

Ultimately taking McHale over Dwight with his contributions throughout the celtics' several deep playoff and title runs. Devastating offensive player and still fit in with the rest of the Celtics game plan. If Dwight’s prime was slightly longer I might go the other way. I do think dwight peaked in 2011 as an MVP level player though, which is why I have him right behind McHale. Had a small role in the lakers' 2020 title run, but still a positive late career note for him.

Kinda feel like Gervin is slipping through the cracks at this point.

Even though his playoff success leaves something to be desired, he was still an impressive playoff performer, putting up the following from '75-'83 (65 games):

28.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 56% TS, 113 ORtg

In '79, the spurs faced the defending champion bullets in the ECF, with a heartbreaking 2 pt game 7 loss. Gervin scored 42 pts in the game, including 24 in the 2nd half. The spurs and bullets ranked 1st and 2nd in SRS respectively that season.

In '82, the spurs made a mid season trade for talented scorer Mike Mitchell. He would only appear in 57 games for the spurs, and gervin still led the spurs to the 7th best SRS in the league. They would fall to the eventual NBA champion lakers (4th in SRS) in the WCF.

In '83, the spurs (6th in SRS) would again fall to the lakers (3rd in SRS) in the WCF. Gervin and Mitchell both had solid performances in the post season that year, but simply weren't enough for a deep lakers roster that featured magic, kareem, nixon, wilkes, mcadoo and cooper.

Had gervin and gilmore had more time together during each other's primes, i'm sure both would have helped each other to further playoff success

Updated my post to include support for a Gervin nomination.

Regarding "only 57 games" of Mitchell, they had the hottest spell of Ron Brewer's career before the trade
PER: 21.5; WS/48: .158; OBPM: 3.8; BPM: 3.3; 17.8ppg in 23.8mpg (34.9 points per 100 poss).

More directly relevant neither Mitchell nor Gervin look that special, I would suggest not even "solid" (fairly average) in the '83 playoff box aggregates, with Gervin looking relatively worse due to a higher RS baseline.