RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Dwight Howard)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 3:51 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Jimmy Butler

Joel Embiid

Draymond Green

Dwight Howard

Bob Lanier

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

WintaSoldier1 · Post #2 » by **WintaSoldier1** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:16 pm

I appreciate the thoughtful response Winta.

On the point in bold, I'm curious what you see me as holding against Embiid that I shouldn't, and failing to appreciate that should.

It's tough to explain specifically what you're holding against Embiid(As to be completely honest I'm not certain). It's more of the general sentiment I can feel from you just based off the way you're articulating your feelings towards Embidd. If I had to pick a facet to explain this, basically there's something in your basketball player quality analysis internally that doesn't sit right with Embiid.

Usually when this happens there are clear cut out indicators of why the list:
--
Poor or Mediocre Decision Maker
Lack of Motor
Poor Shot Quality
Etc,

Basically the list is based around characteristics that are usually great indicators that the players ability is actually far less than what is being shown based on the premise of consistency( as being able to maintain the level of production through the future). Which is what you're brought up about Embiid, for you there's characteristics about his game that damage his consistency as the post season goes foward.

Basically your perspective on Embidd is him as the product of the environment
While iggy looks at Embidd as the Individual.

Ability(Iggy) V Correlative Success(Doctor MJ)

Post #3 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:18 pm

INDUCTION VOTE: Jimmy Butler
Jimmy's got a damn complete game, significant playoff over-achiever. His effective longevity is a bit damaged by taking a few years to get really good and then durability issues later, but it's still not bad in a field that contains Embiid and Draymond (and Howard, to a degree).

I might switch depending on prevailing winds and/or change of heart. Jimmy, Dwight, Lanier, and Embiid all feel very close (though not all for the same reasons, obviously).

Alternate induction vote: Bob Lanier (for now)
I'll try to drop in later to provide some supporting arguments.
Suffice to say the common narrative on his defense [I think] is overstated, he was a consistently fantastic scorer with ample evidence of lift pretty much throughout his career, decent/good longevity, and a weak MVP peak in '74.

fwiw, I may end up switching this one to Dwight.

NOMINATION: Gary Payton
Switching to Payton for my primary (was my alternate last round), as he has more traction. He and Pau Gasol are the last two players I have INSIDE my top 50 who are not even nominees yet.
I'll copy/paste some arguments from prior threads later.

Alt. nomination: Pau Gasol
Feels like we're way overdue to not at least have him on the table.
I'm voted for McHale last round, though have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments, too.

Was thinking of making a strategic pick for my alternate, but not seeing anyone else with traction that I'm particularly in favour of. Robert Parish and Ray Allen are the other guys I'd really like to see on the ticket......

I likely will have to begin the long and lonely task of trying to drum up support for another longevity giant [Parish] eventually.
Suffice to say that given Parish's superior rebounding, more than capable scoring and defense, similar team accomplishments, and FAR superior longevity.......wherever McHale is, Parish should definitely not be far behind [if at all], imo.

Special_Puppy · Post #4 » by **Special_Puppy** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 6:59 pm

Embiid doesn't have enough longevity to make it on lists like this. He hasn't even played 15000 minutes in the regular season yet

WintaSoldier1 · Post #5 » by **WintaSoldier1** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:12 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:Embiid doesn't have enough longevity to make it on lists like this. He hasn't even played 15000 minutes in the regular season yet

Greetings!

So are there 100 other players you'd take over Embiid knowing how his career has went?

How important are MP to you when it comes to finding value in a players Career?

Joao Saraiva · Post #6 » by **Joao Saraiva** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:41 pm

Vote Dwight Howard

Yeah I'm kinda wondering how Westbrook got in before Dwight and Paul Pierce. For me it just doesn't make sense.

Dwight is probably the best modern era defender after Hakeem. I think people forget how good he was. Yes, I believe he covered a ton of ground (not as much as KG but not that far) and was a better rim protector than Duncan. That's how special he was.

He has decent longevity too, it's not like he did what he did for a year or two and disappeared. On offense he wasn't as good as others but he was effective, and as a roll player he was easy to feed. FTs were kind of a problem but the gains of foul trouble were there too.

Really rooting for him to get this spot to be in the top 50 all time. He deserves it and the media don't make justice to the player he was often.

Let me remember you he also played an important role for the Lakers in their championship run, and even tough he was only a role player at the time he gave Jokic a run for his money.

Alternate vote Joel Embiid

Nomination Pau Gasol

Joao Saraiva · Post #7 » by **Joao Saraiva** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:44 pm

Special_Puppy wrote:Embiid doesn't have enough longevity to make it on lists like this. He hasn't even played 15000 minutes in the regular season yet

Yeah but his minutes are of high value. Longevity means something but it's not like Embiid doesn't have a decent amount of time for us to judge.

I'd vote Dwight and Pau Gasol at least in front of him, maybe some other guys too like Gary Payton or Vince Carter. But let's be honest, only Dwight has seasons of MVP caliber under his belt like Joel does. We can talk about the Jimmys, Paytons or Carters but none of them reached the height of Joel's play - even if in the playoffs he's not been able to replicate his RS dominance.

trelos6 · Post #8 » by **trelos6** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:42 pm

Vote: Dwight Howard

One of the best defensive players of all time. His peak was arguably a top 3 player in the league. Offensively,he was limited, but what he did was effective. Great catch radius. Some monster dunks. 20.7 pp75 on +8.7% rTS. In the playoffs, he was still 23.2 pp75 on +10.7% for his 3 year peak. He was a monster down low.

I have him with 3 weak MVP seasons, 8 All NBA, 9 All Star, and 12 All D.

Alternate vote: Embiid

Looking at the players available, only Embiid and Dwight can have arguments to have been the best player in the NBA. Though I don't think Embiid was ever a top 3 player, he's still been roughly in that area for the last few years. His longevity is not great, but his peak gets him here.

Nomination: TBA.

Alt. Nom: Ben Wallace .

. Big bad Ben. He was a terrific Defensive player, with basically 0 offensive impact. He’s in the discussion as a top 5 defensive player of all time, so just by that he should be considered. Mutombo had more longevity, but I like Wallace’s peak more.

AEnigma · Post #9 » by **AEnigma** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:23 pm

VOTE: Bob Lanier
NOMINATE: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Ray Allen Gary Payton

AEnigma wrote:Linked a comprehensive case for Bob Lanier featuring production, impact analysis, contemporary accounts, and a long highlights video courtesy of 70sFan. I am happy to see him receive support and attention here.

I continue to be confused by the lack of support for Cowens. We have seen titles for Barry and Gilmore give them a relatively secure standing, and I think it is difficult to argue against Cowens as the top player on the 1976 Celtics even if people are split on him versus Havlicek in 1974. His impact is clear, consistently showcasing twenty-win lift on a Celtics team that otherwise looked mediocre (when contending) to bad (when not) without Cowens. And he is very much a sort of precursor to Draymond, nominated several rounds ago, in how he was a somewhat undersized defensive anchor frequently taking a lead playmaking role to make use of his team’s strong off-ball wings.

I have Jimmy, Dwight, and Draymond all pretty close together, so I do not feel too much need to weigh in with an alternate vote barring an Embiid push.

For alternate nominations, here are the names I have under consideration other than the three I mention above (ordered by descending position):

Alonzo Mourning: Strong eight-year prime, plus a decent sub-all-star campaign in 2002 and a decent late career pair of years as a starter/roleplayer on a title team. A mild postseason disappointment in how he was often upset by the Knicks (albeit not necessarily his fault) and matched more closely than you would expect by an old Patrick Ewing. Good attitude on the Heat specifically, and he is rightly their most beloved franchise centre, but he was one half of a clash with Larry Johnson on the Hornets, was a minimal contributor to the Nets, and outright rejected the Raptors.

Dikembe Mutombo: Good career longevity, but peaked as a fringe top ten player and did not have as especially long all-star level prime. I prefer him a bit over Parish but the same general sentiment applies to both.

Elvin Hayes: Not popular among this crowd, but was an excellent defensive anchor, had a lengthy and successful career, was generally the top player on the most consistently good team of the 1970s, and could handle scoring volume at adequate efficiency against top competition. Reputedly a bad teammate and very much not a desirable offensive centrepiece, but he deserves more credit than he tends to receive of late.

Paul George: Very comparable career to Jimmy Butler, with less consistent health but clearer impact and easier fit on most teams. Butler deserves to go ahead for his recent playoff heroics and Finals berths, but the gap is overstated by accompanying team performance.

Isiah Thomas: Also not popular among this crowd, but a legitimately superb playmaker who consistently captained strong playoff offences. Great team leader, although has his share of problems outside of that context. Weak longevity, not that it has mattered too frequently this time around.

Samurai · Post #10 » by **Samurai** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:59 pm

Vote for #49: Dwight Howard. If I were starting a team, he certainly wouldn't be the first center I would pick. But there have now been about a dozen centers chosen so I think Howard should get some serious consideration. DPOY for three consecutive years should be reason enough. But he was also an elite rebounder, leading the league in rebounds/game 5 times and finished in the top ten 13 times. Averaged 20+ points/game 4 times and finished in the top twenty in TS% 9 times despite being a poor FT shooter. He has had some durability issues with injuries, his propensity to draw technicals isn't helpful and he brings some locker room drama, all of which has kept me from nominating him thus far. But I think we are at a point where he deserves some consideration.

Alternate vote: Bob Lanier. Just a personal favorite of mine. Had the second best low post hook shot I've ever seen. Feathery soft mid-range jumper. If I had to forge a guess, I could see him being able to shoot 3's like Chris Bosh if he grew up in a more modern era. Decent but not elite rebounder, he set picks that made defenders feel as if they ran into a parked truck.

Nomination: Paul Arizin. If I gave more credit to being a trailblazer/innovator, he would have been nominated sooner. Entering the league in 1950 when the game was based on 2-hand set shots and very slow offensive sets, Arizin introduced a weapon that continues to be a mainstay in the NBA today: the jump shot. In addition to his shooting proficiency (led the league in FG% once and finished in the top five in TS% 5 times), he was also known as a great leaper, slick ballhandling and tough defense. And while he wasn't an elite rebounder at only 6-4, he still managed to finish in the top twenty in rebounds/game 6 times.

Alternate nomination: George Gervin. Outstanding scorer who led the league in scoring 4 times (only Jordan, Wilt and KD have more scoring titles and tied with Kobe and Harden). Named All NBA/ABA nine times (5 of them to the First Team), played in 12 straight All Star games, and scored double figures in 407 consecutive games. Not a very good defender although he was a very good defensive rebounder and shot blocker for a guard. And the eye test tells me that he had the best floating finger roll off a drive that I've ever seen (Wilt's was off a post-up, not a drive!).

Post #11 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:12 pm

AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Bob Lanier
Nominate: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Ray Allen (may switch to Payton or Gervin depending on vote distribution)
AEnigma wrote:Linked a comprehensive case for Bob Lanier featuring production, impact analysis, contemporary accounts, and a long highlights video courtesy of 70sFan. I am happy to see him receive support and attention here.

I continue to be confused by the lack of support for Cowens. We have seen titles for Barry and Gilmore give them a relatively secure standing, and I think it is difficult to argue against Cowens as the top player on the 1976 Celtics even if people are split on him versus Havlicek in 1974. His impact is clear, consistently showcasing twenty-win lift on a Celtics team that otherwise looked mediocre (when contending) to bad (when not) without Cowens. And he is very much a sort of precursor to Draymond, nominated several rounds ago, in how he was a somewhat undersized defensive anchor frequently taking a lead playmaking role to make use of his team’s strong off-ball wings.

I have Jimmy, Dwight, and Draymond all pretty close together, so I do not feel too much need to weigh in with an alternate vote barring an Embiid push.

For alternate nominations, here are the names I have under consideration other than the three I mention above (ordered by descending position):

Alonzo Mourning: Strong eight-year prime, plus a decent sub-all-star campaign in 2002 and a decent late career pair of years as a starter/roleplayer on a title team. A mild postseason disappointment in how he was often upset by the Knicks (albeit not necessarily his fault) and matched more closely than you would expect by an old Patrick Ewing. Good attitude on the Heat specifically, and he is rightly their most beloved franchise centre, but he was one half of a clash with Larry Johnson on the Hornets, was a minimal contributor to the Nets, and outright rejected the Raptors.

Dikembe Mutombo: Good career longevity, but peaked as a fringe top ten player and did not have as especially long all-star level prime. I prefer him a bit over Parish but the same general sentiment applies to both.

Elvin Hayes: Not popular among this crowd, but was an excellent defensive anchor, had a lengthy and successful career, was generally the top player on the most consistently good team of the 1970s, and could handle scoring volume at adequate efficient against top competition. Reputedly a bad teammate and very much not a desirable offensive centrepiece, but he deserves more credit than he tends to receive of late.

Paul George: Very comparable career to Jimmy Butler, with less consistent health but clearer impact and easier fit on most teams. Butler deserves to go ahead for his recent playoff heroics and Finals berths, but the gap is overstated by accompanying team performance.

Isiah Thomas: Also not popular among this crowd, but a legitimately superb playmaker who consistently captained strong playoff offences. Great team leader, although has his share of problems outside of that context. Weak longevity, not that it has mattered too frequently this time around.

I was about to advise calling an alternate [as Lanier is unlikely to have major traction], but I see you covered the reason in first line.

Agree regarding Hayes and Isiah in particular.
Not sure if I'll have difficulty getting help garnering some traction for Hayes when the time comes, or if some old-heads will pull him in before I'm even ready. Hard to say.
There is indeed some pretty strong impact signals around him defensively, and the whole 16-years-with-big-minutes-and-never-injured aspect is something my criteria likes. Yes, he shot way too much [and lots of bad shots], though this was partly product of the era he played in (efficiency [or what actually WAS an efficient shot] was only half-understood by coaches at the start of his career, and offensive scheming was still very rudimentary). '77 was at least one year he demonstrated he could score in volume on good efficiency (so it's theoretically not impossible). Otherwise there's something to be said for a guy who you can just dump the ball to and he could get A shot of some sort (at least on very bad offensive teams there's something to be said for this). He's someone I'd like to have in the conversation soon.

Ditto with Isiah. Another low-efficiency scorer, though I appreciate his ability to attack defenses single-handed, creating shots for himself or others (and he was a very very good playmaker). I also think he was better defensively than he's sometimes given credit for, and guys like Bill Laimbeer have freely acknowledged Isiah WAS the team/culture leader of those squads (though I agree it was contextual: his personality had the potential to be off-putting in other settings, perhaps, yet it was the perfect fit there).
And his playoff rising is also something that merits consideration.
I'd like him in the conversation before Hayes, in fact.

Mutombo and Mourning would be right after them. George I'm a little lower on; he'd wait until the Paul Arizin range (whom I also think we're far too early in considering).

But for me, the main guys I'd like to see getting noms are Gary Payton, Pau Gasol, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen.

Then I'm down for Isiah, and another great Piston guard: Chauncey Billups. Like to see him get some traction soon, too.

Owly · Post #12 » by **Owly** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:29 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Bob Lanier
Nominate: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Ray Allen (may switch to Payton or Gervin depending on vote distribution)
AEnigma wrote:Linked a comprehensive case for Bob Lanier featuring production, impact analysis, contemporary accounts, and a long highlights video courtesy of 70sFan. I am happy to see him receive support and attention here.

I continue to be confused by the lack of support for Cowens. We have seen titles for Barry and Gilmore give them a relatively secure standing, and I think it is difficult to argue against Cowens as the top player on the 1976 Celtics even if people are split on him versus Havlicek in 1974. His impact is clear, consistently showcasing twenty-win lift on a Celtics team that otherwise looked mediocre (when contending) to bad (when not) without Cowens. And he is very much a sort of precursor to Draymond, nominated several rounds ago, in how he was a somewhat undersized defensive anchor frequently taking a lead playmaking role to make use of his team’s strong off-ball wings.

I have Jimmy, Dwight, and Draymond all pretty close together, so I do not feel too much need to weigh in with an alternate vote barring an Embiid push.

For alternate nominations, here are the names I have under consideration other than the three I mention above (ordered by descending position):

Alonzo Mourning: Strong eight-year prime, plus a decent sub-all-star campaign in 2002 and a decent late career pair of years as a starter/roleplayer on a title team. A mild postseason disappointment in how he was often upset by the Knicks (albeit not necessarily his fault) and matched more closely than you would expect by an old Patrick Ewing. Good attitude on the Heat specifically, and he is rightly their most beloved franchise centre, but he was one half of a clash with Larry Johnson on the Hornets, was a minimal contributor to the Nets, and outright rejected the Raptors.

Dikembe Mutombo: Good career longevity, but peaked as a fringe top ten player and did not have as especially long all-star level prime. I prefer him a bit over Parish but the same general sentiment applies to both.

Elvin Hayes: Not popular among this crowd, but was an excellent defensive anchor, had a lengthy and successful career, was generally the top player on the most consistently good team of the 1970s, and could handle scoring volume at adequate efficient against top competition. Reputedly a bad teammate and very much not a desirable offensive centrepiece, but he deserves more credit than he tends to receive of late.

Paul George: Very comparable career to Jimmy Butler, with less consistent health but clearer impact and easier fit on most teams. Butler deserves to go ahead for his recent playoff heroics and Finals berths, but the gap is overstated by accompanying team performance.

Isiah Thomas: Also not popular among this crowd, but a legitimately superb playmaker who consistently captained strong playoff offences. Great team leader, although has his share of problems outside of that context. Weak longevity, not that it has mattered too frequently this time around.

I was about to advise calling an alternate [as Lanier is unlikely to have major traction], but I see you covered the reason in first line.

Agree regarding Hayes and Isiah in particular.
Not sure if I'll have difficulty getting help garnering some traction for Hayes when the time comes, or if some old-heads will pull him in before I'm even ready. Hard to say.
There is indeed some pretty strong impact signals around him defensively, and the whole 16-years-with-big-minutes-and-never-injured aspect is something my criteria likes. Yes, he shot way too much [and lots of bad shots], though this was partly product of the era he played in (efficiency [or what actually WAS an efficient shot] was only half-understood by coaches at the start of his career, and offensive scheming was still very rudimentary). '77 was at least one year he demonstrated he could score in volume on good efficiency (so it's theoretically not impossible). Otherwise there's something to be said for a guy who you can just dump the ball to and he could get A shot of some sort (at least on very bad offensive teams there's something to be said for this). He's someone I'd like to have in the conversation soon.

Ditto with Isiah. Another low-efficiency scorer, though I appreciate his ability to attack defenses single-handed, creating shots for himself or others (and he was a very very good playmaker). I also think he was better defensively than he's sometimes given credit for, and guys like Bill Laimbeer have freely acknowledged Isiah WAS the team/culture leader of those squads (though I agree it was contextual: his personality had the potential to be off-putting in other settings, perhaps, yet it was the perfect fit there).
And his playoff rising is also something that merits consideration.
I'd like him in the conversation before Hayes, in fact.

Mutombo and Mourning would be right after them. George I'm a little lower on; he'd wait until the Paul Arizin range (whom I also think we're far too early in considering).

But for me, the main guys I'd like to see getting noms are Gary Payton, Pau Gasol, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen.

Then I'm down for Isiah, and another great Piston guard: Chauncey Billups. Like to see him get some traction soon, too.

Do you have an idea where Baron Davis would be on your big board?

AEnigma · Post #13 » by **AEnigma** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 4:50 am

Thinking more about that Dwight/Jimmy/Draymond trio.

Dwight: Best peak and most minutes played by a substantial margin (even if I cut away a few seasons as irrelevant). Is retired, and in most cases here I would rather show some amount of deference to retired players just to minimise recency bias and the influence of people in the next project going, “Well he was at this spot last time and added three good years!”

Jimmy: I like him the most as my franchise leader, and I want to highlight that because Dwight does not seem like a reliable figure there and Draymond’s leadership thus far has felt entwined with his environment. (I do not hold 2020 against him the way many do, but it did end various hypotheticals about how he would do in an explicitly negative team environment.)

Draymond: So in a vacuum I do probably take him third here, and I want to be upfront about that. Least time played, and success most tied to a certain team setup.
…
But I have also been upfront that “in a vacuum” quality is only a portion of my votes in this project. Part of that is to give the older players a bit of a break (thirteen years of Bill Russell entering the league in 2010 is probably not finishing #2 on my list), but in that principle is that I want this list to represent something of the story of the league, and what drives much of that story is success. It is why I started off backing Cowens over Lanier despite my personal preferences and assessments, why I understood Drexler over Pierce, why I thought McHale was a fine pick in this range despite not showing much without Larry Bird, why I think Isiah and Hayes should be in the conversation around now… And Draymond has by a wide margin been the most successful of this candidate trio.

Now, there is an obvious rejoinder to that statement even if we ignore all the usual “in a vacuum” hypotheticals, but here is where I start thinking of #39 Manu (still much too high for me, although I understand the approach). So as an exercise, what if we go on pbpstats and lazily pretend that Draymond and Curry were doing some 2018 Paul/Harden staggering, and also that we do not need to make any other adjustments for lineups?

2013-23 Postseason Warriors:
Steph + Draymond = +9.61 (4220 minutes)
No Steph, no Draymond = -9.91 (966 minutes)

Nice synergy. And when we split them?

Spoiler:

Obvious caveats aside from lineup issues are sample size, “Durant”, and round relevance (Doc’s favourite). All fair, although in this comparison I see the latter as irrelevant given that Dwight and Jimmy never led their teams to Finals success either, and the former matters less to me because I see Draymond as a playoff riser (both individually and contextually) whom I have already acknowledged has low value on weak teams. So what if we just take out Durant entirely?

2013-23 Postseason Warriors (no Durant)
Steph + Draymond = +7.32 (3092 minutes)
Steph - Draymond = +0.7 (1106 minutes)
Draymond - Steph = +7.48 (907 minutes)

Bringing us back to the true comparison part of this exercise:

2008-12 Postseason Magic + 2014/15 Postseason Rockets (i.e. me being as nice to Dwight as reasonably possible)
Dwight on = +2 (2885 minutes)
Dwight off = +0.4 (1091 minutes)

2015-23 Postseason Jimmy
On = +1.6 (3800 minutes)
Off = -2.9 (1078 minutes)

Again, limited use because none of these lineup circumstances (teammates, benches, opponents, shooting luck, etc.) are standardised. This is not meant to be an argument for anything beyond, “Hey, maybe there are some suggestions that just running Draymond with a co-star scorer like Klay can give you decent results.” But I think it is interesting food for thought how Draymond without Curry or Durant has managed a postseason on-court rating on par with the best single runs of Howard (2010) or Butler (2022), while Steph without Draymond has an on-court rating on par with some of the more criticised results of those two.

iggymcfrack · Post #14 » by **iggymcfrack** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 8:30 am

Vote: Bob Lanier
Been reading a lot about him the last few days and I've been really impressed with what I've seen. I always had this impression in my head that he was just kind of an empty calories scorer, a guy who put up numbers but wasn't very good on D and didn't affect the game much aside from points and rebounds. I can see now that this take was very wrong. The difference in PPG allowed in the games he played and the games he didn't play by year is pretty undeniable. It seems like he was a very good defensive anchor who was just surrounded by poor situations that kept him from having as much success as you'd hope for. His playoff numbers well outpace the other candidates except for Butler.

Alternate: Draymond Green
Flip-flopped around on this one too, but he actually has a higher career playoff BPM than Embiid and his impact stats are obviously out of this world. Has been a hugely important piece on 4 championship teams, and I think I need to side with the guy who's visibly demonstrated massive impact over Embiid who while good in the playoffs has only showed the kind of incredibly elite level play that would get you in this early in the regular season.

Nominate: Gary Payton
Tremendous longevity at a high level. Cumulative box score composites have him top 30 all-time and if anything, his incredible man defense should leave him as a bit underrated by the box score.

LA Bird · Post #15 » by **LA Bird** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 1:15 pm

Vote 1: Bob Lanier
Vote 2: Dwight Howard
Nom 1: Gary Payton
Nom 2: Nate Thurmond

Watch on YouTube

Lanier is usually highly regarded offensively but I think he is still underrated on that end. He is one of the most well-rounded center on offense - hook shot from the low post and mid range jumper up to 20 ft, he is a great passer from the high post, and he is both mobile enough to drive from the perimeter and strong enough to establish deep post position in mismatches. And if you are wondering if his skillset translates to actual results, here are Lanier's numbers in his playoff series in Detroit:

26/15/3 on +4.3 rTS% vs 74 Bulls (#1 defense)
20/11/6 on +4.1 rTS% vs 75 Sonics
29/12/4 on +12.9 rTS% vs 76 Bucks
25/13/3 on +10.9 rTS% vs 76 Warriors (#1 defense)
28/17/2 on +15.9 rTS% vs 77 Warriors

That's a multi-year postseason average of 26/14/4 on +9 rTS%, with over half the games against the best defense in the league. Some might say the sample size is too small but you can cherry pick the best 5 consecutive series from any center ever and there aren't a handful who can put up comparable numbers. Lanier is a better first option on offense in the playoffs than Robinson/Ewing and is very arguable against Moses depending on how much you value offensive rebounding vs passing and scoring efficiency. Also, all his monstrous 10+ rTS series came after Dave Bing was traded so the teammate argument can't even be used (not that Bing was particularly good in the first place...)

The bigger concern for Lanier has always been on the defensive end, namely that the Pistons were only an above average defense once during his time there. This is a fair criticism but it's worth keeping in mind that team defensive ratings are not necessarily an accurate measure of an individual player's defense and that the Pistons were a very poorly run franchise ("the worst management in the league" according to Gene Shue). DeBusschere was an all time great defender who was on the Pistons as close as two years before Lanier and despite that, they were still often a subpar defensive team. And the interesting similarity is how big of an impact they both had on their new teams after leaving Detroit:

Pistons traded DeBusschere mid season in 1969 to the Knicks who improved from 0.8 to 8.1 SRS
Pistons traded Lanier mid season in 1980 to the Bucks who improved from 0.9 to 8.8 SRS

I am not arguing Lanier is as good as DeBusschere on defense but the WOWY parallels are striking and it's hard to imagine Lanier being a bad defender for a decade and then making such a huge impact in Milwaukee instantly for no reason. And I don't think people realize how impactful the trade was - 80 Lanier had the highest single season WOWY score of all time behind only peak Walton in ElGee's spreadsheet. And this is despite WOWY being a per game metric and Lanier averaging only 28 mpg in the regular season (36 mpg in playoffs). To be fair, maybe Bucks Lanier's defensive impact was exaggerated because he could spend more energy on defense when he didn't have to carry the offensive load but that would theoretically be offset by a decline in offensive impact due to role too. And he also had strong WOWY in Detroit over multiple seasons so the Milwaukee impact numbers aren't just a fluke. There is a lot of uncertainty but I feel like the data points to him being a solid plus defender whose real value was only revealed when he finally played for a decent franchise. Combine this with his very strong offense and I think Lanier is overdue to being voted in, let alone being nominated.

HeartBreakKid · Post #16 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 4:21 pm

Vote is for Dwight Howard - Defensively dominant for 3-4 years in a row. He was quite good his first couple years in Houston as well. Short prime, but I feel that his scoring around the rim put some serious double, even triple team pressure that made him a more reliable scorer than Westbrook, Green, and in my opinion, even Drexler.

My alternate vote is for Joel Embiid - I just saw Samurai nominate him and I'm trying to think "why not"? Hasn't had a great post season yet that I can recall, but seems in rank with the guys here, if not better because he seems a step above most of them in the RS. I might take him over Howard, I do feel he is the "better player" but I could be overlooking the rather big defensive gap in Howard's favor.

Bob Lanier - I don't really have an opinion of him.

Green is interesting - when I compare him to Kevin I can see an argument, but when I compare him to Howard/Embiid it feels like I am reaching and playing off of narratives.

Jimmy Butler - Not really considering him. His lows are just as bad as his highs are good. But I'm overdue for an evaluation of him.

My nomination is for Bill Walton

My alternate nomination is for Willis Reed - Arguably just as good as Frazier albeit his career feels even shorter.

HeartBreakKid · Post #17 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 4:25 pm

Last few votes have been very close. If Winta had a vote Howard would have likely gotten in a couple spots ago. Two more spots left in the top 50!

OhayoKD · Post #18 » by **OhayoKD** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 7:18 pm

1. Draymond Green

-> Superstar impact by every approach throughout prime
-> Playoff-Riser
-> Centerpiece of an arguably era-best defense
-> Cornerstone of an all-time dynasty
-> Best-in-league calibre defender
-> One of the few two-way floor-generals in history

Nomination:
1. Bob Davies

As I am mainly using an era-relative framework it feels like a good time to reach into Mikan's era

2. Bill Walton

A little too good to not at least be in the discussion, even if he's a hard-sell for a career-value approach

WintaSoldier1 · Post #19 » by **WintaSoldier1** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 9:01 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Last few votes have been very close. If Winta had a vote Howard would have likely gotten in a couple spots ago. Two more spots left in the top 50!

Hopefully Dwight Wins Here, I’m unsure who should be nominated.

I’ve seen Pau Gasol, but my memory of Pau isn’t spectacular especially because the Pau I got to see was the D’antoni and On Gasol.

I also am generally uneducated between the disparity between Walton & Payton but if I had to come down to one I’d probably go Payton even if my limited knowledge articulates Walton is better.

If GP gets nominated I wonder how that’ll shake up the vote for the 50th spot. Ignoring the newest nomination for the 50th spot I really think it comes down to Joel Embidd and Bob Lanier Crowd but I wouldn’t be surprised if I saw a Draymond Green Push that shifted the vote in a certain direction.

I don’t care if Joel isn’t top 50 in all honesty, but I am an advocate for his ability especially because put into context and narrative he can be withered down in discussion. Hope he gets in by the 52nd or so spot. Will return with a update on my view of Bob Lanier after watching some tape of him

LA Bird · Post #20 » by **LA Bird** » Sat Dec 2, 2023 1:36 am

OhayoKD wrote:Nomination:
1. Bob Davies

As I am mainly using an era-relative framework it feels like a good time to reach into Mikan's era

If we are looking purely at team success, the early Rochester Royals were definitely a strong dynasty. The question though is how significant of a role Davies played in that success. He had one big scoring year in 47 which saw him winning the league MVP but in the two surrounding NBL seasons, there were multiple teammates who finished above Davies in All League selections. WOWY analysis on Davies' 29 missed games in 1946-48 would be very useful but I don't think we have any game by game records from that period. We do, however, have WOWY numbers in the 16 games he missed in 1950-53 and the Royals had a +8.63 MOV while going 11-5 (three of the losses in OT including a legendary 6OT game). Obviously not a huge sample for his missed games but it seemed like the Royals were still playing at an elite level without Davies.

And then on the box score side, Davies simply doesn't look that impressive once we have more numbers from 1949 onwards. Unlike Cousy who was racking up assist titles almost every year, Davies only finished top 3 in assists per game once in his career. When the Royals won the championship in 51 with Mikan injured, it was their PF Jack Coleman not Davies who led the team in assists in the playoffs (Coleman had a 14/28/8 statline in Finals G2). Davies was not a volume scorer, peaking at 16.2 ppg and he was not an elite FT shooter either, peaking at 79.5%. Davies' numbers absolutely cratered in the postseason during his last 3 seasons (18.4 PER, 0.156 WS/48 -> 8.7 PER, -0.018 WS/48) but even before that, he didn't rank that highly within the team in the playoffs (4th, 9th, 5th, 2nd in WS). For that era, I think it's hard to make the argument for Davies going above Cousy and the gap only widens if people are factoring in other "legacy" points like accolades and rings.

Sidenote: For some reason, there is very little information about Davies' 2 professional seasons with the ABL before joining the Royals. He only played 9 out of 38 possible games and his teams both year were trash but he didn't exactly crush that league despite the weak competition as one would probably expect.