I'm going to offer some sort of rambling thoughts/comparisions on this group, just by way of doing something different/more than simply copy-pasting.....
I'll start with some comments on offense, mostly focusing on Pau vs Reed, as without a doubt they’re the two best offensive players here [and not particularly close against Thurmond or Mutombo].
And I would be comfortably rating Gasol the better offensive player among the two of them.
As scorers, it’s very close, imo.
Low-post scoring is probably a tiny edge to Gasol. Neither is a McHale-like savant down there, though Pau is a bit more savvy in terms of using pumps and step-thrus (“up and unders”) or similar; they’re otherwise both fairly vanilla there (lot of basic jump-hooks, etc). Pau probably worked in the post more (more his wheelhouse of scoring).
Very similar FT-shooters (especially if curving toward league norms [eras]), though I believe Reed is the better mid-range shooter. It was certainly more his "bread-n-butter": taking LOTS of catch-n-shoots, face-up jumpers out of the triple threat, or sporadic fadeaways or off of one-dribble moves toward the basket. And he was somehow scoring significantly above league avg TS% while taking so many mid-range shots.
In my limited sample of game-tracking [<7 games, fwiw], he hit 49.3% [33 of 67] from between 10-23' (which constituted nearly 57% of his FG attempts, btw). He was money from 10-16', fwiw; and was respectable in the 3-10' range, too (nearly 43%; decent considering these are always heavily contested shots).
I was hedging toward Reed as perhaps a marginally better scorer, but then noted Pau peaked at higher pts/100 rates [even era-adjusted] as the focal point of the offense, and did so while maintaining rTS% comparable to what prime Reed was doing in a more “ensemble” scoring role.
Some would argue Reed's lower scoring rate is because the Holzman system spread the ball around, taking away some of Reed’s shots. No doubt this is true, yet this should also mean his shots are more “selective” [or “good”], resulting in improved efficiency.
However, his peak year [by far] in rTS% is +7.11% in '69. Pau peaked at +7.27% rTS in his own favourable situation. Career and prime rTS% are very comparable (though again: with Pau on slightly higher scoring rates, even era-adjusted).
But Reed was more playoff resilient, right? Meh, maybe not. He actually [on average] suffers MORE decline in efficiency than Pau did in the post-season.
So I’m not sure my initial inclination was actually correct.
And then Pau is a substantially better passer than Reed (or ANYONE in this grouping, with Thurmond the only one who isn’t multiple tiers behind).
Reed [to my eye] didn’t do a lot besides kick it back out for a reboot if he wasn’t going to shoot. Might find an open man out of a rare double-team, or sometimes he’d kick to an open man, or otherwise hit someone on a basic ball-reversal or similar, or perhaps even an outlet pass. But he just wasn’t a notable half-court passer at all, is what I’m saying. Pau could actually find cutters, or make other more “sophisticated” passes in the half-court.
Ball-control: Pau might be the best of this bunch. Mutombo and Mourning come out pretty bad [terrible, even] in terms of turnover economy over their respective careers.
Dikembe has a career [rs] mTOV% of 13.77% (though shrinks to 12.95% in the playoffs].
Mourning has a career rs 13.01% mTOV% (though ballooning to 14.35% in the playoffs).
Reed, based on my limited sample of game logs (~6.85 games worth [8 different games, but some are partials]) has a mTOV% of 9.38%.
Pau’s rs figure is 8.58% (gets marginally
better in his playoff sample).
Comparing across era’s gets a bit dicey, though. Thurmond is a virtual unknown in this, fwiw.
But anyway, I’ve got absolutely NOTHING to suggest Reed was better in terms of ball control, or offensive rebounding, fwiw. So I’m left with the conclusion that Pau is comfortably the best offensive player here.
I acknowledge that Zo scores the most of all, with slightly BETTER rTS% than Pau; but he’s a zilch passer [<2 ast per 100 possessions], and as noted above: very turnover prone. So while you could argue him purely as a scorer vs Reed, and perhaps even Pau (at least if looking ONLY at pts and shooting efficiency), he’s not comparable as an overall offensive player (yes yes, I’ll get to defense).
Defensively, the paradigm is flipped: Pau’s clearly the weakest defender of the group. And Dikembe, the clear WORST offensive player, is [imo] the BEST defensive one. People forget how mobile young Dikembe was; he moved his feet quite well for a guy 7’2” (plus those long arms). He wasn’t a liability defending in space, and near the rim: dear god. That guy blocked and/or changed so many shots (or just sent people the other way).
Alonzo, at his best, is imo a close 2nd defensively, though his total prime defensive value pales in comparison to Mutombo’s, because he just wasn’t around enough. He’s a little less than 11,000 career minutes behind Mutombo, the proportional gap in their respective prime minutes is roughly the same.
I’d place Thurmond 3rd in peak or average-year defensive value/impact, though he too probably has more career and prime than Mourning.
Reed is the 4th-best defender: a solid pnr defender, attentive in a rotational sense, solid post-defender, provides a little rim protection, boxes out well (though arguably still a somewhat weak rebounding C vs everyone else). He's merely very good, whereas three of the five candidates are outright studs defensively.
Reed might get some points for leadership/enforcer intangibles, fwiw.
So where does this leave us?
Well, in terms of peak or peri-peak (say….best 3 years):
Pau’s #1 offensively, but #5 defensively.
Deke’s #5 offensively, but #1 [imo] defensively.
Zo’s #3 offensively [though perhaps close behind Reed], and imo #2 defensively.
Thurmond is #4 offensively (and perhaps
comfortably 4th???), probably #3 defensively.
Reed is #2 offensively, though only #4 defensively; however maybe a small boost on leadership??
So I think the best peak is probably either Zo or Reed (leaning toward Zo), with either Pau or Dikembe next (I’m leaning toward Pau, personally), and Thurmond probably last (though not at all far behind). To be fair to Thurmond, I think his offensive mis-use is as much a product of era as anything: I don’t see him being so miscast as a scorer in today’s league, which ironically raises his offensive value (while lowering his ppg).
However, in terms of longevity of quality, those two guys I have at the top for peri-peak, are the very very clear two
at the bottom (Reed perhaps even comfortably so).
I know some of you don’t care about this……criteria/philosophy differences. This is pretty relevant, imo. From a purely practical (“championship odds”) standpoint, in a vacuum (no guarantees of what kind of support you’d get to put around him, or even which era or league-parity environment, league-size environment you’re talking about)........Is Willis Reed better than, say, Pau or Dikembe by enough of a margin that you’d take his 5-year prime stretch [‘67-’71] (it really is that short) over the
10-year span of ‘92-’01 for Dikembe? Or the 11-year span [‘02-’12] for Pau?
Does anyone honestly think he’s THAT much better, that those 5 years give you a better title shot (in a vacuum) than a decade+ of these other guys.
For me, that’s beyond a hard sell. It’s a flat no [and obviously so] to me.
Zo is closer to those longevity guys than Reed, both because his prime is a little longer, and I’m leaning toward him being marginally better than Reed, too. But still, in answering the above question, I’m skeptical.
Anyway, I hate that this boiled down to a matter of philosophy/criteria, but I guess that’s often going to be the case. The longevity of quality just ends up winning out for me.
Induction Vote: Pau Gasol*mostly-durable 18-year career (ALL 18 years at least fair/useful/playable), peaking as an All-NBA level player;
**was probably
at least a borderline or fringe All-Star level player (like at least top 25-30 in the league) for literally 15 seasons;
***was Robin on 2 title teams (3-4 contenders);
****is 32nd all-time in career rs WS (tied for 43rd all-time in playoffs), and 30th since 1973 in rs VORP (38th in playoffs).....
The only guys ahead of him in rs WS are Dan Issel (weaker era [some in ABA], and notably weak defensive guy), and the guy I'm nominating [Robert Parish]. And there are only six guys not yet inducted ahead of him in playoff WS (one of them is Robert Horry, fwiw; another is Horace Grant, and another is Al Horford......three guys for whom I think most would agree have no case above Pau).
The ONLY guy ahead of him in VORP [since 1973]---barely, by just 0.4---is Vince Carter. There are only four guys not yet inducted ahead of him in career playoff VORP (and again, one of them is Robert Horry; another is Horford).
McHale's inducted at #48, iirc, though I have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments to McHale, as well. McHale suffers the same lower-than-expected impact signals, fwiw.
I hope Pau doesn't have long to wait to be inducted. Seems a head-scratcher that the above resume should potentially pushed out of the top 60 (particularly with an Olympic/international career to potentially function as tie-breaker consideration???).
Alternate vote: Dikembe MutomboJust such a monster defensively, his impact signals peri-peak are REALLY strong, and his prime and career are solid in length as well.
For purposes of any potential run-off, I rank them
Gasol > Mutombo > Mourning > Thurmond > Reed.
NOMINATION: Robert ParishA longevity giant who shows signs of significant defensive impact very early in his career (and perhaps underrated on that end through much of his early prime), even though he came to be known as more of a scorer later.
This was a guy who was very productive WELL into his mid [or even late] 30s. In '89, when Bird missed the whole year, it was Parish more so than McHale who stepped up his output, and with no relevant drop in his overall efficiency.
He played more rs games than
anyone in this game's history, and did so with a
career PER of 19.2, .154 WS/48, +1.5 BPM, and a +9 net rating.
Alternate nomination: Chauncey BillupsThe other great Piston PG; excellent efficiency [far better than Isiah, fwiw] on moderate scoring volume, decent playmaking and turnover economy, and at least passable defender through much of his prime (2x All-Defensive Team, fwiw), decent longevity, title and FMVP, 5-time All-Star and 3 All-NBA teams [all of which probably UNDERrates him]........come on. If this isn't a resume worthy of at least being on the ballot nearly at #60.......
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
) on 56.65% efficiency with a +0.7 plus/minus (team went 16-10 in that stretch) in 37 minutes per game.
