RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Chauncey Billups)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Chauncey Billups) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:36 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
WintaSoldier1
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Chauncey Billups
Image

Vince Carter
Image

Cliff Hagan
Image

Elvin Hayes
Image

Bobby Jones
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As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#2 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:52 pm

My vote is for Cliff Hagan- Cliff Hagan has some real playoff heroics and is perhaps the biggest catalyst to the Hawks only title. He has a couple of years where he is the playoff hero. He never quite plays at that level for the rest of his career, but he is still good scorer for his era, just not eyepopping like 58 and to a lesser extent 59.

I'm going to favor someone who had a 05 Manu like run here.

My alternate vote is for Vince Carter – Very well rounded high level volume scorer. Can't really think of enough holes he has that the other nominees can exploit to make grounds on him.

The others

Chauncey Billups – Sometimes unfairly branded as a 3 and D type of point guard, I think he had legitimate passing and generalship. I’m not sure how clutch he actually was to justify his nickname, but in general he is a solid playoff player who is very good at many different things. I thought seeing the Nuggets improve after replacing a volume scorer like Iverson gave perspective on how strong the more nuanced parts of the game are.

Elvin Hayes - He's in my top 100, but I don't have a very strong opinion about him. Defensively, I might lean that Bobby Jones was the more impactful one while playing more within himself on offense.

Bobby Jones – Great hustle and powerful defender. Almost explained like a smaller Dave Cowens. It’d be better if there was more data to support how good his defense was, but I’m pretty high on him.





My nomination is for Tracy McGrady - H was a top 5 player who many thought was POY in 03. His longevity is very weak compared to his peers, but compared to the people ranked #70-100 it doesn't seem bad. 6-7 of all-nba 1st-2nd team level play is a quite a lot of value. Not the cleanest stats in the playoffs, but not the worst.


My alternate nomination is for Bill Walton
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#3 » by AEnigma » Mon Jan 22, 2024 5:45 pm

VOTE: Elvin Hayes
Alternate: Chauncey Billups
NOMINATE: Wes Unseld
AltNom: Tracy McGrady

AEnigma wrote:As promised, Hayes immediately rises to the top of my list. 7th in regular season minutes (4000 more than Parish), 11th in total career minutes (2000 more than Parish). Best player on a 60-win Finals team, then arguably the best player on a title team (I think his case is pretty secure, but I understand the argument for Dandridge, and Dandridge was certainly better the following year).

Unseld made much better use of the team’s shooters and I am comfortable calling him the more important offensive player (in addition to being the team’s leader). I think Hayes’ scoring had value regardless, but in the context of that team, Unseld’s passing and screening would have been worth more.

I do not see the defensive responsibility as especially close though, and for bigs that matters a lot more to me. In aggregate Hayes was one of the most valuable defenders ever, and while his shooting efficiency has been increasingly maligned with time, he was not even the typical leader in shot rate for the Bullets (Phil Chenier). Yeah, he should have held back, but we are in the 60s now, and that should only damn you so much. Oh, and he was a playoff riser, because for as ugly as his shot profile could be, at least it was inelastic.

For my alternate nomination, considered Ben, George, and McGrady. Do not really want Ben in before Unseld, so will hold off there. George and McGrady are my top wings on the board. McGrady only had an eight-year prime and missed one potential postseason because of injury. Paul George is essentially in the twelfth year of his prime, although 2015 was a fully lost year, 2022 was a mostly lost year, and 2023 was an injury absent postseason. That brings him down to eight complete prime seasons to McGrady’s seven. I take McGrady’s peak quite comfortably, and although I am underwhelmed by how he performed in Houston, I cannot say the average prime George season would be a definite improvement. George is an easier fit as a secondary star because of his superior shooting and defence; McGrady can handle a much larger offensive load, both as a scorer and as an overall playmaker, so he is better suited for situations where those are significant team needs (as in Orlando). I lean toward George as a career, but it is close enough that I am fine joining the McGrady voters.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:38 pm

Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. The most 1st team All-Defense awards, best player on two Nugget teams that had the best record in the NBA (though both came up short in the playoffs), great efficiency without being just an inside scorer, excellent passer, decent offensive rebounder, defensively good at blocking out rather than getting the board, good shot blocker for a forward, good steals, could play up to the 5 or down to the 2, limited minutes because of a physical condition but probably the greatest glue guy in the history of the NBA.

Stronger defensive impact than any of the nominated players, most efficient scorer along with Billups, one of the better playmakers for his position above everyone here except maybe Billups, he was the best player on the 75 Nuggets who had the best record in the league and made a big impact everywhere he went. The only real issue is his limited minutes and I think his impact is strong enough to overcome that.

Alternate Vote: Chauncey Billups: Had a slow start to his career, never a big assist guy. But, like Walt Frazier, he ran a very good balanced offense, was a highly efficient scorer at decent volumes, and stepped up in the NBA finals. Not Frazier on defense but well to above average defensively as a PG.



Nomination Adrian Dantley -- like Gervin, his case is pure scoring but the statistics are so shiny. High volume, super efficient scorer; hard to believe a team couldn't be built to take advantage of this incredible ability.

[b]Alternative Nomination: tbd, I will read and listen and hope to be convinced.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#5 » by 70sFan » Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:25 pm

So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#6 » by Owly » Mon Jan 22, 2024 10:23 pm

70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.

I will say generally that even imagining everyone had the same exact vision/concept (e.g. regarding eras, regarding career value versus peak or prime etc) we're out where players are really close. I think there are a lot of players who could reasonably go quite a bit higher or lower because there's a big viable range.

Fwiw ... if previous projects are any indication (and perhaps they aren't) ... 84, 84, 72 could suggest: ... stock could be rising (or different participants) ... he's not a million miles away (fwiw, earlier projects with perhaps different values didn't include him) ... him making top 70 might require a push given it would be his highest raw ranking and holding a ranking requires a real terms climb.

An unweighted average of people in this territory off the last 3 projects (obviously there's random climbers in there ... I've just given the raw list from the first guy I eyeballed not yet in - some guys already in obviously).

*=rising active
**= rank inflated by average not penalizing 1 absence from the list
***= rank inflated by average not penalizing 2 absences from the list

Chauncey Billups
Alonzo Mourning
Dikembe Mutombo
Robert Parish
Adrian Dantley
Dave Cowens
Manu Ginobili
Bob Lanier
Elvin Hayes
Bob Cousy
Allen Iverson
Tracy McGrady
Anthony Davis *
Alex English
Wes Unseld
Sam Jones
Vince Carter
Paul Arizin
Dominique Wilkins
Nate Thurmond
Kevin Johnson
Kawhi Leonard*
Bernard King ***
Bob McAdoo
Grant Hill
Sidney Moncrief
Giannis Antetokounmpo *
Tiny Archibald ***
Bobby Jones
Tony Parker
Shawn Marion
Larry Nance
Dennis Rodman
Ben Wallace
Rasheed Wallace
Hal Greer
Chris Bosh
James Worthy
Elton Brand **

(random cutoff here and - yeah my first glance thought is that this reiterates ... people can reasonably differ)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#7 » by trelos6 » Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:00 am

Vote: Chauncey Billups

Chauncey has the highest peak of the current crop. Mr Big Shot's best season was 21.7 pp75 on +7.9 rTS%. He was a very efficient player, especially for a PG, and he was fantastic in the playoffs. The pistons from 05-08 were a pretty good offensive team, and this was largely on the back of Billups play. I have him with 1 weak MVP level season, 5 more ALL NBA level, and another all star level. He was neutral on D, at least once the Pistons got rolling from 2003. Which, considering he's a lead guard, doesn't add too much either way.

Alt. Vote: Vince Carter

I have all my nominations and tie breaker options ahead of Jones, Hayes, Hagan. So I think I'll probably be voting for the new guys quite a bit.

As for Vince, He had 1 weak MVP level season (2001), 4 more All NBA seasons and 3 more All Star. I'm not crediting players for being a rotation guy, but I guess it's useful as a tiebreaker (not that I have a tie here). So Vince's longevity is top tier, owing to his 99th percentile athleticism.

Nomination: Ben Wallace

One of the best defenders of all time, his value comes all from his defense, and it was that good, I think he was vaulted into weak MVP level for 2 seasons. He also had 14 seasons of all D level, so he has the longevity as well as the fantastic defensive peak.

Alt. Nom: Damian Lillard

He's still going, but I don't think he'll be racking up to many more All NBA level seasons now. Mostly all star seasons. That said, he's got a great offensive peak, especially around 2020 when he increased the range on his 3 ball.

Note: After Billups and Carter, I have Bobby Jones > Elvin Hayes > Cliff Hagan.
For the purpose of any tie breakers, after Ben Wallace I have Damian Lillard > Rasheed Wallace > Larry Nance > T-Mac.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#8 » by Samurai » Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:41 am

Vote for #66: Chauncey Billups. Solid all-around guard who scored in double digits 15 seasons, finished in the top 20 in assists/game 8 times, and played defense (two-time All Defensive Second Team member). Three time All NBA Team member (one second team, two third teams). Finals MVP in 2004. I never considered him elite in one category but a consistently good all-around player for a long time.

Alternate vote: Bobby Jones. Yes I have reservations about his lack of longevity and durability. But I'm pretty sure that I would take Jones and his reduced minutes over Draymond if I were drafting a team, so seeing Green get selected convinced me to consider him. Gotta admit that there is bias here since Jones is one of my favorite players of all time. Despite averaging less than 30 minutes/game during his NBA career, he still has ten All Defensive First Team awards and one Second Team selection (in his second to last season averaging only 20 minutes/game). He was nicknamed The Secretary of Defense for good reason. He didn't shoot much but he was highly efficient, leading the league in FG% three times and finishing in the top 20 in TS% nine times. But as good as he was at playing basketball, how he conducted himself may have been even more admirable. He was always a gentleman with honor; he didn't drink, smoke or use profanity, always raised his hand when called for a foul - even telling a ref who mistakenly called a foul on a teammate that he was the one who actually committed the foul, even though that was his fifth foul! When teammates tried to show him ways to "cheat" by grabbing an opponent's jersey or committing a foul when the ref wasn't looking, he adamantly refused to do so. He would reply "if I have to play defense by holding on, that's when I quit." Teammate Dr J described Jones as "a player who's totally selfless, who runs like a deer, jumps like a gazelle, plays with his head and heart each night, and then walks away from the court as if nothing happened." And former teammate Charles Barkley said "if everyone in the world was like Bobby Jones, the world wouldn't have any problems."

Nomination: Sam Jones. Not at all sure on this one. Ten rings but some will take that with a grain of salt for being Russell's teammate. Three-time All NBA Second Team (cursed by playing guard at the same time that Oscar and West were in their primes) and had three top ten finishes in MVP voting. Seven top twenty finishes in both points/game and TS% indicates that he was not only a scoring threat but an efficient shooter as well. I don't have a good feel on how good he was on defense; he had 9 top twenty finishes in DWS but Russell was obviously the primary driver of the team's excellent defense and KC Jones typically drew the assignment of defending the opposing team's primary backcourt scorer. One of the greatest bank shot artists of all-time; he was banking in shots before Tim Duncan was even born.

Alternate nomination: Bob McAdoo. Lacks great longevity (his last 7 seasons were spent playing in Italy) but outstanding peak and prime. Elite scoring big led the league in points/game for 3 consecutive years. MVP in 1975 and finished second two other seasons. Five seasons in the top ten in rebounds/game. Much better offensive player than defensive (led the league in OWS twice) but still managed to have five years in the top 20 for DWS and blocks/game.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#9 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:24 am

70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.


I have Rasheed in the 50s. I would have voted for him.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#10 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:52 am

70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.


I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:37 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.


I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.

The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#12 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:42 am

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.


I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.

The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.


indeed, it's not a "greatest pistons" list. We may as well cite that Billups did not help the Blazers as much as Rasheed (or if we want to be more fair, the T-Wolves, the team that actually drafted him).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#13 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 24, 2024 4:37 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:So, I am comparing the list to my unofficial CORP list and here are some guys before #66 that didn't make the cut and didn't get the nomination yet:

Rasheed Wallace
Wes Unseld
Bob Cousy
Adrian Dantley

I have seen some discussion about the latter three, but what do you think about Wallace right now? To me he has quite reasonable case for top 60 and it seems he won't make top 70.


I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.


The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.


Yup, that's the case, and it's a decent one, but it's also not like it's necessarily clear cut that his non-Detroit time makes the difference.

If we go by WS, Billups has the career lead between the 3 in both the regular and post-season, Sheed's regular season advantage over Ben is small, and Ben gains the advantage in the playoffs.

If we go by simple +/-, Sheed has the career regular season advantage...but again falls to the bottom in the playoffs.

These things don't prove that Sheed shouldn't rank ahead of the other two, but they do push back against the idea that the Portland years push Sheed way beyond the other two.

And then I go personally go back to something that matters to me and looms large when comparisons are other things are close:
Who do I trust to build a culture with?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#14 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:02 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.

The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.


indeed, it's not a "greatest pistons" list. We may as well cite that Billups did not help the Blazers as much as Rasheed (or if we want to be more fair, the T-Wolves, the team that actually drafted him).


So I'll just emphasize something I'm wont to emphasize first:

If you ever think I'm being oversimplistic and not pondering complexities, go back and ask yourself what I'm taking to be obvious enough it would bog down the post if I included it, noting in particular any language I'm using that is non-definitive. I use simple statements as a starting point with discussions, not the end. Not saying I never miss anything of course, but if you've been around a while here - which you and 70s have been - you know I'm not the drunk you meet at a sports bar, I'm a neurotic nerd.

I will say though that it's pretty dang reasonable to point out that Billups was basically a major-prospect-turned-bust for the first half decade of his career, and that is a knock on him compared to the vast majority of guys we discuss in this project, including the Wallaces.

Further, while Billups wasn't as glaringly toxic in attitude as Wallace, I think it's pretty clear we shouldn't be painting an aura around Billups like we do for a lot of other point guards that presumes a super-high BBIQ and exemplary off-court behavior.

If we put a narrative to each guys' journey leading up to their championship together:

Sheed was the big time prospect who succeeded right away but then started going socially haywire and didn't regain harmony until he went somewhere where he could fit in as a role player to an existing culture.

Billups was the big time prospect who failed on his 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th teams, but landed in the right spot for his 5th team, and from there had a great career.

Ben was the guy totally off the NBA's radar who probably never gets a second chance in the NBA if he really struggles - let alone has a toxic attitude - but instead quickly went from undrafted to most impactful player on his 1st team, continued to be impactful on his 2nd team, and then became the foundation of a culture on his 3rd team that led to a title - to say nothing of 4 DPOYs for himself.

Up to each to decide how they want to factor these things in if at all, but I will say it definitely helps Ben relative to the other two for me.

Just between Sheed & Billups, frankly if we just went through the Detroit years, I'd call Sheed the better career for reasons that relate to what you pointed out, but then I'm also quite impressed by what Billups did in Denver, as well as departure being the end of Detroit's relevancy despite Sheed (and Rip & Prince) still being on the roster.

Billups departure seeming to matter more than Ben's also is a feather in his cap to be clear, but aside from there being some complications there, I think people see that and tend to think Billups had a better longevity as an impact player than Ben, and as I've alluded to, I don't actually think that was the case.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:08 pm

Induction Vote: Chauncey Billups
Very efficient moderate-high volume scoring guard with capable playmaking, excellent at controlling tempo, playoff-resilient, and was a solid defender to boot (decent longevity, too).
Was at least the 1b on a title team [FMVP, fwiw], helped anchor multiple other contenders or near-contenders.

In my recent "Win Shares Above Replacement or Good" studies (sharing just for funsies, since it's something I'm only newly looking at within this specific framework), I find that......

In rs WS above Replacement he ranks #41 all-time; there are only 2 players not yet inducted ahead of him:
*Dan Issel (weak defender, and did his damage in a weaker era [significant portion in the ABA]); and at any rate not yet a nominee.
*Adrian Dantley (prior questions already discussed regarding whether he's oversold by his efficiency, given the apparent lack of tangible impact on the team level); and at any rate not yet a nominee.

In rs WS Above Good, he ranks #45 all-time; only four non-inducted players rank ahead of him:
*the aforementioned Issel and Dantley, plus...
*Rudy Gobert (not yet a nominee, though perhaps should be soon???)
*Bailey Howell (questionable defender [perhaps??], and occurred in weaker era; also not a nominee)

In playoff WS Above Replacement, he ranks #20 all-time, and there is not a single uninducted player ahead of him (we, in fact, have to go another 11 places along [to #31] to find the next non-inducted player).

In playoff WS Above Good, he again ranks #20 all-time, and again there is not a single uninducted player ahead of him (we have to go even further this time: another 13 places along [to #33] to find the next non-inducted player [and that player's career occurred entirely in the ABA, fwiw]).


It's time for Mr. Big Shot.


Alternate vote: Elvin Hayes
It's hard for me to overlook such a notable defensive imprint that lasted for such a lengthy [and durable] period. I'm more sympathetic to his chucking within the context of his era (and to a degree there's something to be said for someone you can simply dump the ball to and he'll get you a shot that at least is on slightly inefficient.
Was a key player [some might argue the best???] on a title team (and a couple contenders).

He simply feels like the most relevant career listed [at least after Billups] to me.



Nomination: Tracy McGrady

Alt. Nomination: Allen Iverson

Would like to see Bob Cousy come into the nominees too; might switch depending on where traction seems to be swinging. Would not object to Damian Lillard or Wes Unseld either.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#16 » by 70sFan » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:34 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I think he certainly has a case.

Just speaking for my own process, I can't help but compare teammates, and so the conversation between Billups & the Wallaces tends to loom large. It's generally consensus that Ben & Chauncey did more for the Pistons than Sheed, but I'll also say that I can't help but feel that both Ben & Chauncey are guys I'd rather build the foundation of my contender around than Sheed. You could make a Sheed longevity argument, but a longevity argument is a tough one when you're talking about a guy prone to some self-sabotage even in the best of times.


The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.


Yup, that's the case, and it's a decent one, but it's also not like it's necessarily clear cut that his non-Detroit time makes the difference.

If we go by WS, Billups has the career lead between the 3 in both the regular and post-season, Sheed's regular season advantage over Ben is small, and Ben gains the advantage in the playoffs.

If we go by simple +/-, Sheed has the career regular season advantage...but again falls to the bottom in the playoffs.

These things don't prove that Sheed shouldn't rank ahead of the other two, but they do push back against the idea that the Portland years push Sheed way beyond the other two.

And then I go personally go back to something that matters to me and looms large when comparisons are other things are close:
Who do I trust to build a culture with?

Just to be clear - I don't think having Billups and Ben ahead of Sheed is wrong or even that controversial, it's just that I think he has a legitimate case over these two if we take a look at their careers and it seems that I am quite a bit higher on Portland Sheed than you are.

If we ask ourselves who was the most important Pistons player, that's actually a hard question but O always came down to Ben in this discussion. Ben to me was the player who peaked the highest and was the most valuable in the playoffs. The problem with him ahead of Sheed all-time is that outside of his brief prime, he wasn't very relevant and longevity is a very key factor to me.

Billups doesn't have longevity problems, but during working on my CORP evaluation I was shocked how little juice Billups career actually has. He was a late boomer and his prime basically ended in 2011. That's a solid longevity, as I said before, but I don't think he has a significant advantage over Rasheed in this regard.

Now, if you think that Billups was the best player out of these three, I think it's reasonable to put him higher. I personally don't think that's true, I would put his peak the lowest out of the three and his prime isn't stronger than Sheed's either in my opinion.

Of course, I try to keep off-court things away from my evaluations, unless they heavily influence the results but even though Sheed was a headache, he managed to put himself into a contending position twice and had a very successful career.

Coming from a different angle, what are your thoughts about Hal Greer and Sam Jones?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#17 » by 70sFan » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:39 pm

We have seen a discussion about Jones vs Hayes, but what do you think about Jones vs Unseld?

I think Unseld used to be slightly overrated historically, but now I almost feel like he became completely forgotten. I get that he's an unusual type of player, but the voting panel didn't mind put unusual players quite high (Manu, Green, Jones nominated) and I don't believe it's just a matter of plus/minus numbers.

I think Unseld deserves a longer conversation at this point. For anyone unfamiliar with his style, I can provide his games from various seasons.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#18 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:55 pm

70sFan wrote:
Billups doesn't have longevity problems, but during working on my CORP evaluation I was shocked how little juice Billups career actually has.


This is a bit eye-of-the-beholder, though. Granted, I didn't go deep in evaluating each year (was a bit more off the cuff year-to-year ranking), but I have Billups in the mid-late 50s all-time in my crude CORP rankings. Only one non-inducted player is ahead of him (Vince Carter, barely; although I haven't yet run the Wallace's or Damian Lillard; I sort of doubt the Wallace's will end up passing him on mine, though; I think Ben's mediocre longevity will bring him up just short).


70sFan wrote:Coming from a different angle, what are your thoughts about Hal Greer and Sam Jones?


I have Sam Jones higher. Similar roles on their respective teams, but Jones was scoring at a higher rate (in estimated pts/100 poss, he has seven seasons in a row higher than Greer's best) at similar shooting efficiency, and doing it for generally more successful teams (admittedly in somewhat lesser minutes). I also note Jones' scoring was more playoff-resilient.

Greer was the better playmaker, but Jones the better rebounder (call it a wash there).
Greer's defensive reputation is pretty good, but Jones never looked bad to my eye (Greer was also pretty small, which gives me some pause regarding being too bullish about his D).

So I've got to go with Sam Jones overall. The few additional seasons Greer has don't really move the needle because he was post-prime and just not that good anymore (especially the last two seasons: those don't nudge the needle even a hair).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#19 » by 70sFan » Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:01 pm

trex_8063 wrote:This is a bit eye-of-the-beholder, though. Granted, I didn't go deep in evaluating each year (was a bit more off the cuff year-to-year ranking), but I have Billups in the mid-late 50s all-time in my crude CORP rankings. Only one non-inducted player is ahead of him (Vince Carter, barely; although I haven't yet run the Wallace's or Damian Lillard; I sort of doubt the Wallace's will end up passing him on mine, though; I think Ben's mediocre longevity will bring him up just short).

Yeah, that's true. As I said, I am not very high on Chauncey prime. He finished 74th on my CORP list, while Sheed finished 56th. I don't think the difference between them is that drastic, but that's how I ended up with the two. Ben finished 83rd, Carter sits at 80th and Lillard is 79th. So as you can see, I do view Sheed as half-tier ahead of the rest.

I have Sam Jones higher. Similar roles on their respective teams, but Jones was scoring at a higher rate (in estimated pts/100 poss, he has seven seasons in a row higher than Greer's best) at similar shooting efficiency, and doing it for generally more successful teams (admittedly in somewhat lesser minutes). I also note Jones' scoring was more playoff-resilient.

Greer was the better playmaker, but Jones the better rebounder (call it a wash there).
Greer's defensive reputation is pretty good, but Jones never looked bad to my eye (Greer was also pretty small, which gives me some pause regarding being too bullish about his D).

So I've got to go with Sam Jones overall. The few additional seasons Greer has don't really move the needle because he was post-prime and just not that good anymore (especially the last two seasons: those don't nudge the needle even a hair).

Jones is definitely a better scorer and I don't think the defensive gap is meaningful in this comparison. Jones is also sort of a postseason monster, who definitely should get more recognition looking at the list trend.

At the same time though, Greer is indeed a better playmaker (I'd say significantly so) and he does have longevity advantage over Jones.

Would you consider Jones at this point, or is it too early?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #66 (Deadline ~5am PST, 1/25/24) 

Post#20 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 24, 2024 9:48 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:
The thing with Sheed is that his best case over the other two is not his Pistons time, but what he did in Portland. I am aware that he was very problematic, but Blazers did built a contending team around him and I think these seasons are highly underrated historically.


Yup, that's the case, and it's a decent one, but it's also not like it's necessarily clear cut that his non-Detroit time makes the difference.

If we go by WS, Billups has the career lead between the 3 in both the regular and post-season, Sheed's regular season advantage over Ben is small, and Ben gains the advantage in the playoffs.

If we go by simple +/-, Sheed has the career regular season advantage...but again falls to the bottom in the playoffs.

These things don't prove that Sheed shouldn't rank ahead of the other two, but they do push back against the idea that the Portland years push Sheed way beyond the other two.

And then I go personally go back to something that matters to me and looms large when comparisons are other things are close:
Who do I trust to build a culture with?

Just to be clear - I don't think having Billups and Ben ahead of Sheed is wrong or even that controversial, it's just that I think he has a legitimate case over these two if we take a look at their careers and it seems that I am quite a bit higher on Portland Sheed than you are.

If we ask ourselves who was the most important Pistons player, that's actually a hard question but O always came down to Ben in this discussion. Ben to me was the player who peaked the highest and was the most valuable in the playoffs. The problem with him ahead of Sheed all-time is that outside of his brief prime, he wasn't very relevant and longevity is a very key factor to me.

Billups doesn't have longevity problems, but during working on my CORP evaluation I was shocked how little juice Billups career actually has. He was a late boomer and his prime basically ended in 2011. That's a solid longevity, as I said before, but I don't think he has a significant advantage over Rasheed in this regard.

Now, if you think that Billups was the best player out of these three, I think it's reasonable to put him higher. I personally don't think that's true, I would put his peak the lowest out of the three and his prime isn't stronger than Sheed's either in my opinion.

Of course, I try to keep off-court things away from my evaluations, unless they heavily influence the results but even though Sheed was a headache, he managed to put himself into a contending position twice and had a very successful career.

Coming from a different angle, what are your thoughts about Hal Greer and Sam Jones?


Reasonable thoughts in general, and I'll respond to your last question, but first another super-simple approach that on its own is certainly not as good as a good CORP:

If we look at the number of years with solid minutes (say >1000) and a positive On/Off, here are the count for the 3 guys in question:

Billups has 8 such seasons.
Sheed has 12.
Ben has 11.

Now, an extreme situation where this would diverge from normal definitions of longevity would be DeMar DeRozan, who has only 2 such seasons to his name. I think it's fine to conclude that my approach here shouldn't be called "longevity", but from a perspective of actually having many impactful seasons like we'd expect from someone in a Top 100 project with good longevity, well, this is in a nutshell why DeRozan has no business being brought up here.

The 3 Pistons by contrast do deserve to be here, but in terms of which guys were really making their teams better for many, many years, I'd say Billups lags behind the other two.
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