RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #71 (Wes Unseld)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 5:01 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Paul George

Cliff Hagan

Bobby Jones

Wes Unseld

Rasheed Wallace

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

AEnigma · Post #2 » by **AEnigma** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 6:18 pm

VOTE: Wes Unseld
Alternate: Paul George
NOMINATE: Damian Lillard
AltNom: Allen Iverson

AEnigma wrote:With Hayes inducted, I am open to Unseld. Had a nice (albeit not MVP-level) start to his career, and then fell off to more of a general all-star level. One title (Finals MVP was questionable but fine) and three more appearances. Strong leader and culture builder. I have never been too impressed with him by my eye-test, but he had the second longest prime of any player here and the most success while doing so across two distinct roster iterations.

Keeping an eye toward who I want included in the top 75, both Rasheed and Lillard meet the mark. Rasheed was the best player on back-to-back semifinalists before winning an ensemble title with the Pistons, and he was a highly impactful player for roughly a decade. Lillard has less playoff success, and I agree with LA Bird that he seems to lose effectiveness in a concerning way (although I am comparatively less critical of how he performed in 2019/20). However, the absolute best postseason players were rightly rewarded long ago, and when some of the other options I am considering include Allen Iverson, Bob Cousy, Shawn Marion, Larry Nance, Al Horford, etc., then Lillard is not losing points comparatively. You never want to see the postseason reduce an all-NBA-level player to a “mere” all-star-level player, but the remaining candidates who did have prolonged stretches of maintaining play in the postseason (e.g. Sam Jones or 1987-92 Terry Porter) were more about maintaining their base level all-star level of play anyway. Is Terry Porter winning any series that Lillard or Iverson lost? I say no, and that is ultimately what matters.

Much like with Isiah, I am surprisingly one of the first to back Iverson. Iverson had a pretty nice 10-to-12-year prime before his rapid decline. His cultural legacy outpaced his real impact, but his ability to shoulder massive minutes and scoring loads did have a notable lift on his team. The 76ers went from a -9.5 SRS team to a -5.5 team (factoring his missed games) upon his arrival. From 1997-2007, they won at a 33-win pace without him and a 42-win pace with him. That is not overwhelming improvement, but it is a lot of value provided over eleven years. His effect in Denver was more tepid — unsurprising given the scoring overlap with Carmelo — but I think he deserves credit for helping them reach what to that point was a new high mark in wins and SRS, and as I believe I have detailed elsewhere, the difference between the 2008 team and the 2009 team tends to be overstated (although Billups was indeed better for that team).

Post #3 » by **penbeast0** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 6:20 pm

Vote: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. The most 1st team All-Defense awards, best player on two Nugget teams that had the best record in the NBA (though both came up short in the playoffs), great efficiency without being just an inside scorer, excellent passer, decent offensive rebounder, defensively good at blocking out rather than getting the board, good shot blocker for a forward, good steals, could play up to the 5 or down to the 2, limited minutes because of a physical condition but probably the greatest glue guy in the history of the NBA.

Stronger defensive impact than any of the nominated players, most efficient scorer along with Billups, one of the better playmakers for his position above everyone here except maybe Billups, he was the best player on the 75 Nuggets who had the best record in the league and made a big impact everywhere he went. The only real issue is his limited minutes and I think his impact is strong enough to overcome that.

Alt vote: Wes Unseld

Far from sold on this but he's a homer choice as the leader of the team I grew up with, the 60s/70s Bullets.

I just don't see either Vince or Tmac as that impactful to winning. Big stats guys and I loved VInce being one of the rare nerds to play in the NBA at his time but someone has to convince me they have great impact on top end winning like Jones has. Tmac was such a strange duck, he was incredibly talented but his coaches have called him out for poor practice habits and he never seemed to mesh well with Yao. In Orlando when Grant Hill went down and in Houston whenever Yao would go down though, it seemed like he would slip into a nearby phone booth and play like Superman for a stretch. Really not sure what to make of him. Not sure on Paul George, he seems a reach this early. Hasn't played 57 games since 1919 and had some injury limitations even before that, never was really one of the league's best at anything but very versatile, hasn't got the winning resume either.

Nomination: Adrian Dantley Easily the greatest scorer left. Amazing combination of volume and efficiency.

One of only 5 players in NBA history to have a season over .400 TS Add, something neither LeBron James or Micheal Jordan ever accomplished! Of the top 11 guys in this stat, everyone else is in except for Alex Groza whose career was ended quickly over college point shaving scandals in the 50s. And it wasn't isolated, he was consistently among the league leaders in both scoring and efficiency for his whole career.

His history with coaches is mixed. Frank Layton in Utah ripped him publicly as a selfish player though he later tried to walk it back a few times. On the other hand, Chuck Daly praised his professionalism, work ethic, and even his defense. But basically he is a serious candidate as one of the greatest wing scorers to ever play and everyone close to him in volume and efficiency is in.

Code: Select all

TS ADD LEADERS (single season) -- thanks to Owly for posting this

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 460.4
Steph Curry 454.7
Charles Barkley 433.5
Wilt Chamberlain 430.3
Adrian Dantley 404.8

Kevin Durant 394.9
Oscar Robertson 392.5
Jerry West 374.3
George Mikan 365.5
Karl Malone 362.8

+ Alex Groza '50. 377.4

Alternative nomination: Sam Jones the main scoring threat on the NBA's greatest dynasty and notable for his clutch scoring. After Jones, I see Rudy Gobert as more impactful than Damon Lillard and Jason Tatum as having a prime/career quite a bit shorter.

LA Bird · Post #4 » by **LA Bird** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 6:31 pm

I am slow to update active players on my list so I never directly compared Paul George and Bobby Jones before but George looks pretty good here IMO:

• Higher career minutes already and George can level up to 40+ min in the playoffs while Jones is still stuck at under 30 min
• Both have top notch non-box impact metrics but George likely faced relatively tougher competition as a starter
• Jones crushes George in defensive accolades but considering the latest DRAPM has George around 3rd in the league over the last decade behind only Draymond and Gobert, the gap is probably not that big. Both very versatile defenders with similar size though Jones has the clear edge as a shot blocker.
• Scoring is not close at all. Jones peaked at 15ppg while George's career average is above 20. In particular, 2019 George is low key one of most underrated peaks and he was 2nd behind only Harden for the scoring title.
• George's passing and handles aren't as good as the top wings he's usually grouped with but against a traditional 4, he wins this comparison handily even though Jones is a good passer too.

Feels like the offensive gap between the two is comfortably bigger than the defensive gap... thoughts?

OldSchoolNoBull · Post #5 » by **OldSchoolNoBull** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 7:29 pm

LA Bird wrote:I am slow to update active players on my list so I never directly compared Paul George and Bobby Jones before but George looks pretty good here IMO:

• Higher career minutes already and George can level up to 40+ min in the playoffs while Jones is still stuck at under 30 min
• Both have top notch non-box impact metrics but George likely faced relatively tougher competition as a starter
• Jones crushes George in defensive accolades but considering the latest DRAPM has George around 3rd in the league over the last decade behind only Draymond and Gobert, the gap is probably not that big. Both very versatile defenders with similar size though Jones has the clear edge as a shot blocker.
• Scoring is not close at all. Jones peaked at 15ppg while George's career average is above 20. In particular, 2019 George is low key one of most underrated peaks and he was 2nd behind only Harden for the scoring title.
• George's passing and handles aren't as good as the top wings he's usually grouped with but against a traditional 4, he wins this comparison handily even though Jones is a good passer too.

Feels like the offensive gap between the two is comfortably bigger than the defensive gap... thoughts?

It seems to me that if you care about efficiency, it's actually Jones who has the significant scoring gap.

Jones, for his career, has an +8.0 rTS, having recorded 7 100+ TS Add seasons.
George, for his career, has a +1.5 rTS, having recorded 1 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Jones, for his career averaged 20.2pp100 RS and 19.9pp100 PO.
George, for his career, averaged 30.8pp100 RS and 28.6pp100 PO.

I'd saying having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of George gives Jones the edge in that department.

Given this, Jones' defensive reputation, and the fact that he was a key cog in three NBA Finals teams(as well as an ABA Finals team) and an NBA champion - things George cannot lay claim to - I think I'd take Jones of the two.

trelos6 · Post #6 » by **trelos6** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 7:51 pm

Vote: Rasheed Wallace

Amazing ceiling raiser. I recently heard, teams play is often based off the limitations of their 4. Can they spread the floor? Can they facilitate? Can they play high level D? I think Sheed lets you play any way you like. Quite versatile, not many weaknesses, and played hard.

Alt: Paul George

Looking at the new RAPM that’s dropped, PG was +3.4 on offense and -4.6 on D. That’s a +8 overall, in the same tier as KG, Curry and Duncan. I think defensively, he’s one of the top 5 or so players in the last 15-20 years. Super versatile player, I think he’d fit on any team with his shooting, ball handling and great D.

nomination: Damian Lillard

Tremendous offensive player, especially once he extended his range ~2019. Prob won’t see him get any more all nba level seasons, but I expect a few more all star level seasons. I realistically don’t see how he can get into the top 60 in future projects. His O RAPM was wild at +7.3.[/quote]

alt nom: Rudy Gobert

One of the best defensive players in the last 20 years, and he wasn’t a 0 on offense. Great screener.

Samurai · Post #7 » by **Samurai** » Wed Feb 7, 2024 7:52 pm

Repeating my same votes and nominations from previous round:

Vote for #71: Bobby Jones. Yes I have reservations about his lack of longevity and durability. But I'm pretty sure that I would take Jones and his reduced minutes over Draymond if I were drafting a team, so seeing Green get selected convinced me to consider him. Gotta admit that there is bias here since Jones is one of my favorite players of all time. Despite averaging less than 30 minutes/game during his NBA career, he still has ten All Defensive First Team awards and one Second Team selection (in his second to last season averaging only 20 minutes/game). He was nicknamed The Secretary of Defense for good reason. He didn't shoot much but he was highly efficient, leading the league in FG% three times and finishing in the top 20 in TS% nine times. But as good as he was at playing basketball, how he conducted himself may have been even more admirable. He was always a gentleman with honor; he didn't drink, smoke or use profanity, always raised his hand when called for a foul - even telling a ref who mistakenly called a foul on a teammate that he was the one who actually committed the foul, even though that was his fifth foul! When teammates tried to show him ways to "cheat" by grabbing an opponent's jersey or committing a foul when the ref wasn't looking, he adamantly refused to do so. He would reply "if I have to play defense by holding on, that's when I quit." Teammate Dr J described Jones as "a player who's totally selfless, who runs like a deer, jumps like a gazelle, plays with his head and heart each night, and then walks away from the court as if nothing happened." And former teammate Charles Barkley said "if everyone in the world was like Bobby Jones, the world wouldn't have any problems."

Alternate vote: Wes Unseld. A favorite of mine from my childhood days (yup, I couldn't shoot either!). GOAT-level at grabbing the defensive rebound and immediately starting the break with a two-hand overhead outlet pass. Led the league in rebounds in 75 and finished in the top ten 7 times. Named both MVP and Rookie of the Year in 69. Finals MVP in 78. He wasn't a great shooter and thus didn't shoot a lot, but he was efficient with the shots he took (led the league in EFG% once and was in the top 20 in TS% 4 times). Was also an excellent screen setter.

Nomination: Sam Jones. Ten rings but some will take that with a grain of salt for being Russell's teammate. Three-time All NBA Second Team (cursed by playing guard at the same time that Oscar and West were in their primes) and had three top ten finishes in MVP voting. Seven top twenty finishes in both points/game and TS% indicates that he was not only a scoring threat but an efficient shooter as well. I don't have a good feel on how good he was on defense; he had 9 top twenty finishes in DWS but Russell was obviously the primary driver of the team's excellent defense and KC Jones typically drew the assignment of defending the opposing team's primary backcourt scorer. One of the greatest bank shot artists of all-time; he was banking in shots before Tim Duncan was even born.

Alternate nomination: Adrian Dantley. I acknowledge that the 6-time all star can be a polarizing player. But in his prime he was an elite scorer, leading the league twice and finished in the top ten in ppg 5 times. Preferred higher percentage shots closer to the rim rather than hoisting 30-footers, finishing in the top 15 in TS% for a dozen consecutive years. He was also a magnet at drawing fouls, finishing in the top ten in FT attempts 10 times, leading the league twice.

Post #8 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 2:55 am

Induction vote: Paul George
AEnigma's convinced me to move this guy up a bit. Turnover economy leaves something to be desired (playmaking too, I guess)......but you have to like the combination of reasonably efficient volume scoring and elite wing defense that PG13 gives you. His longevity isn't great; though it's not terrible at this point either.

His impact profile is pretty strong: 6th in J.E.'s vanilla playoff-included '97-'24 RAPM (though admittedly in significantly fewer minutes than 3 of the 5 guys ahead of him, and roughly equal proportion of those immediately behind him).

Very close with Wes Unseld for this spot, though. Literally adjacent on my ATL, and I only just recently bumped PG13 up.
Unseld's decent effective longevity, and long tenure as 1a/1b on a semi-contender is something to be considered: excellent rebounder, screen-setter, and outlet passer (and team leader??). Also a fair-to-decent post-defender, low volume/decent efficiency scorer, and half-court big-man passer.
Alternate vote: Wes Unseld

Reserve right to switch vote around depending on trends, as these guys are basically even.

Nomination: Damian Lillard
Alternate nom: Bob Cousy
Could also support Allen Iverson if he drew support, though I doubt he will. Not a fan; hate how I often end up being his defender. Dame's offensive imprint is crazy, he needs serious consideration here.
Cousy's a legend, prototype [to a degree], key piece of multiple contenders, has an impact profile that's better than many assume, particularly considering the ORtg/DRtg's on bbref may be skewed by assumed turnover rates which may not apply to the Celtics of circa-1960 [because they were jacking up shots so early in the shotclock]......which means their offense was possibly better [and defense worse] than indicated.

Post #9 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 3:57 am

trex_8063 wrote:Induction vote: Paul George
AEnigma's convinced me to move this guy up a bit. Turnover economy leaves something to be desired (playmaking too, I guess)......but you have to like the combination of reasonably efficient volume scoring and elite wing defense that PG13 gives you. His longevity isn't great; though it's not terrible at this point either.

His impact profile is pretty strong: 6th in J.E.'s vanilla playoff-included '97-'24 RAPM (though admittedly in significantly fewer minutes than 3 of the 5 guys ahead of him, and roughly equal proportion of those immediately behind him).

Very close with Wes Unseld for this spot, though. Literally adjacent on my ATL, and I only just recently bumped PG13 up.
Unseld's decent effective longevity, and long tenure as 1a/1b on a semi-contender is something to be considered: excellent rebounder, screen-setter, and outlet passer (and team leader??). Also a fair-to-decent post-defender, low volume/decent efficiency scorer, and half-court big-man passer.
Alternate vote: Wes Unseld

Reserve right to switch vote around depending on trends, as these guys are basically even.

Nomination: Damian Lillard
Alternate nom: Bob Cousy
Could also support Allen Iverson if he drew support, though I doubt he will. Not a fan; hate how I often end up being his defender. Dame's offensive imprint is crazy, he needs serious consideration here.
Cousy's a legend, prototype [to a degree], key piece of multiple contenders, has an impact profile that's better than many assume, particularly considering the ORtg/DRtg's on bbref may be skewed by assumed turnover rates which may not apply to the Celtics of circa-1960 [because they were jacking up shots so early in the shotclock]......which means their offense was possibly better [and defense worse] than indicated.

Is Lillard's "crazy" offensive imprint greater than Gobert's defensive imprint? There's been talk of how Gobert has had trouble in the playoffs but have his playoff troubles been greater than Lillard's? I agree Lillard has been a very good player but it looks to me like the impact arguments are stronger for his contemporary Rudy Gobert.

HeartBreakKid · Post #10 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 4:49 am

Yeah, I'd take Gobert pretty easily over Lillard. I mean he was arguably (and probably) better than Green on defense for several seasons in a row and has comparable amount of longevity.

HeartBreakKid · Post #11 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 5:00 am

My vote is for Wes Unseld - I'm very high on him, but it is hard to find tangible data to justify it. Aesthetics and optics might not look good, but he seems to do the things that just make you an impactful player. I think his passing and screen setting has been romanticized, but he still seems like an excellent defensive piece.

My alternate vote is for Rasheed Wallace - Brilliant defender with impact stats to support it. Kind of the prime utility player. He sets screens, stretches the floor with jumpers, can drive, can iso late in the post, keeps the ball moving. For a defensive oriented player he pretty much gives you anything you want, he is an "ideal" second guy to me, even more so than someone like Scottie Pippen. I'm considering putting him over Unseld, but there is a chasm in their passing and rebounding ability, so i'll give Wes the benefit of the doubt.

The others

Hagan - I've changed my mind on Hagan. There isn't enough of a sample size to justify his playoff dominance I think.

Jones - I'm not taking a roleplayer here unless he's a high level DPOY type of guy, which I'm not sure if Jones was.

George - Have him in my top 100 but more impressed with his defense as a two way player. My gut feeling is that he's not at the level of Unsed/Jones on defense, and there is diminishing returns with his offense. I think just looking at their stats he does come out looking better than all the nominees except Carter though.

My nomination is for Bill Walton

My alternate nomination is for Elton Brand - I doubt this will get any traction or he'll make the top 100, but he's pretty damn good. I went back and watched a few of his games and his shot making was much better than I remember. He is seen as a peak guy but like T-Mac he has like 8 seasons of being good. I think he was overlooked by the media and it hurt him a lot in the long run.

AEnigma · Post #12 » by **AEnigma** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 5:01 am

While recognising this matters less for both of you, 22 thousand minutes against 29 thousand minutes is a reasonably substantial difference — and although Lillard’s playoff c.v. is uninspiring, it is a step ahead of Gobert’s despite Gobert generally having a better coach, GM, organisation, and top end teammate.

(N.b. Tatum was at 15 thousand minutes before this season, which is why I will be looking past him for quite a while yet.)

LA Bird · Post #13 » by **LA Bird** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 1:48 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:It seems to me that if you care about efficiency, it's actually Jones who has the significant scoring gap.

Jones, for his career, has an +8.0 rTS, having recorded 7 100+ TS Add seasons.
George, for his career, has a +1.5 rTS, having recorded 1 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Jones, for his career averaged 20.2pp100 RS and 19.9pp100 PO.
George, for his career, averaged 30.8pp100 RS and 28.6pp100 PO.

I'd saying having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of George gives Jones the edge in that department.

This is one of those ideas which sounds good theoretically until you zoom out and apply it consistently elsewhere. For example:

Gobert, for his career, has a +10.9 rTS, having recorded 8 100+ TS Add seasons.
Hakeem, for his career, has a +1.9 rTS, having recorded 2 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Gobert, for his career, averaged 20.8 pp100 RS and 20.6 pp100 PO.
Hakeem, for his career, averaged 30.3 pp100 RS and 33.7 pp100 PO.

I'd say having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of Hakeem gives Gobert the edge in the scoring department.

And before you say George is not Hakeem, that's not the point here. The problem is using total volume but relative efficiency which is a classic example of manipulating the y axis to exaggerate the scale of the gap. For example, if we flip the variables and frame the comparison as relative volume vs total efficiency for Jones vs George,

Volume
Jones, for his career, averaged -0.5 pp100 below league average, having recorded ZERO 4+ pp100 aseasons
George, for his career, averaged +8.9 pp100 above league average, having recorded TEN 8+ pp100 seasons

Efficiency
Jones, for his career, averaged 60.7% TS
George, for his career, averaged 57.0% TS

George now has an even more dramatic advantage in scoring volume while maintaining >90% the efficiency of Jones.

(I am not personally using this argument. It's just to show how misleading it is to compare total and relative stats the way you did to argue Jones was a significantly better scorer.)

Post #14 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 2:07 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Is Lillard's "crazy" offensive imprint greater than Gobert's defensive imprint? There's been talk of how Gobert has had trouble in the playoffs but have his playoff troubles been greater than Lillard's? I agree Lillard has been a very good player but it looks to me like the impact arguments are stronger for his contemporary Rudy Gobert.

To the bolded (in a word): yes??

Looking at the recently available '97-'24 career RAPM, Lillard's ORAPM is +7.3 (tied for 2nd with Steph Curry); Gobert's DRAPM is +5.1 (tied for 6th).
From some private studies I'd done in the past, this is not inconsistent with recent NBA history: where the most elite offensive players are able to "tip the scales" on the offensive end to a greater degree than the most elite defenders tip things on that end. (EDIT: fwiw, the value of the single-best DRAPM in this dataset would be good enough for only 6th-place among the ORAPM values)

It could be argued that Gobert's impact OVERALL (offense and defense combined) is comparable or slightly better, because he's actually a small positive on offense, too (whereas Dame has only ever been a negative defender).
*though fwiw, by that same '97-'24 RAPM sample, Lillard still comes out on top: +7.0 to +5.8. There could be noise and inaccuracies in there, obviously (my impression is that Lillard would be WORSE than only a -0.3 defensively, for example), but jsia....

I think if one suggested that from '17 and onward, collectively, Rudy has been better and/or more impactful, I'd likely agree with that (though I don't think the margin is big).
But prior to '17, I would say it was clearly Lillard (by notable margin in '14).
And then there's '13 to consider: Lillard was ROY, while Gobert was not yet in the league.

Lillard's got the one extra season, almost a hundred additional games, and something like 6k+ more career minutes. When comparing, for instance, their respective RAPM's or on/off's or whatev, it's important to remember those things are rate metrics: Lillard has, at the very least, sported comparable impact signals while playing nearly a hundred more games and playing an additional 6 mpg in those games (career 36.3 mpg vs 30.3 for Gobert).

Rudy's been my favourite player in the league for a number of years now; I became a Jazz fan for a number of years simply because he was there (though I came to like other players they had in those years [Joe Ingles, Donovan, Royce, Mike Conley]), and I'm not paying more attention [and cheering for more] the TWolves because he's there.
But this is my trend on this forum: I tend to be the defender of players I don't/didn't ever like [e.g. Allen Iverson] because I think they've become underrated here, while I find myself arguing AGAINST my all-time favorite players whom I think have become overrated [e.g. Steve Nash]. Not sure if Rudy is going to wind up in this latter category or not.

But anyway: I rank Lillard higher, yes.

Owly · Post #15 » by **Owly** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 4:05 pm

LA Bird wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:It seems to me that if you care about efficiency, it's actually Jones who has the significant scoring gap.

Jones, for his career, has an +8.0 rTS, having recorded 7 100+ TS Add seasons.
George, for his career, has a +1.5 rTS, having recorded 1 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Jones, for his career averaged 20.2pp100 RS and 19.9pp100 PO.
George, for his career, averaged 30.8pp100 RS and 28.6pp100 PO.

I'd saying having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of George gives Jones the edge in that department.

This is one of those ideas which sounds good theoretically until you zoom out and apply it consistently elsewhere. For example:

Gobert, for his career, has a +10.9 rTS, having recorded 8 100+ TS Add seasons.
Hakeem, for his career, has a +1.9 rTS, having recorded 2 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Gobert, for his career, averaged 20.8 pp100 RS and 20.6 pp100 PO.
Hakeem, for his career, averaged 30.3 pp100 RS and 33.7 pp100 PO.

I'd say having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of Hakeem gives Gobert the edge in the scoring department.

And before you say George is not Hakeem, that's not the point here. The problem is using total volume but relative efficiency which is a classic example of manipulating the y axis to exaggerate the scale of the gap. For example, if we flip the variables and frame the comparison as relative volume vs total efficiency for Jones vs George,

Volume
Jones, for his career, averaged -0.5 pp100 below league average, having recorded ZERO 4+ pp100 aseasons
George, for his career, averaged +8.9 pp100 above league average, having recorded TEN 8+ pp100 seasons

Efficiency
Jones, for his career, averaged 60.7% TS
George, for his career, averaged 57.0% TS

George now has an even more dramatic advantage in scoring volume while maintaining >90% the efficiency of Jones.

(I am not personally using this argument. It's just to show how misleading it is to compare total and relative stats the way you did to argue Jones was a significantly better scorer.)

I would have avoided using Hakeem in the illustration to keep the point ... purer. I'm lower than him than most but his career TS% rises in absolute terms in the playoffs (.533 to .569) meaning a greater real terms boost given opposition. Just his regular RS offense some years the overall package isn't that great (e.g. HO OBPM 22-29: 2.3; RG OBPM 22-29: 1.9 - that's a nice framing for Gobert Utah minus rookie and a negative but illustrative one for Olajuwon ... the rising years before the apex, but not the downside and mostly I think regarded as quality years).

This doesn't undermine the actual point, but the weighting given to Olajuwon's playoff performances could strain/blur the clarity of the analogy.

Whilst I may disagree, they didn't (to my eyes) "argue Jones was a significantly better scorer". For me, "I'd say [the examples as they framed them] gives Jones the edge" is more opining on a marginal rather than significant lead.

Post #16 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 4:26 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Is Lillard's "crazy" offensive imprint greater than Gobert's defensive imprint? There's been talk of how Gobert has had trouble in the playoffs but have his playoff troubles been greater than Lillard's? I agree Lillard has been a very good player but it looks to me like the impact arguments are stronger for his contemporary Rudy Gobert.

To the bolded (in a word): yes??

Looking at the recently available '97-'24 career RAPM, Lillard's ORAPM is +7.3 (tied for 2nd with Steph Curry); Gobert's DRAPM is +5.1 (tied for 6th).
From some private studies I'd done in the past, this is not inconsistent with recent NBA history: where the most elite offensive players are able to "tip the scales" on the offensive end to a greater degree than the most elite defenders tip things on that end. (EDIT: fwiw, the value of the single-best DRAPM in this dataset would be good enough for only 6th-place among the ORAPM values)

It could be argued that Gobert's impact OVERALL (offense and defense combined) is comparable or slightly better, because he's actually a small positive on offense, too (whereas Dame has only ever been a negative defender).
*though fwiw, by that same '97-'24 RAPM sample, Lillard still comes out on top: +7.0 to +5.8. There could be noise and inaccuracies in there, obviously (my impression is that Lillard would be WORSE than only a -0.3 defensively, for example), but jsia....

I think if one suggested that from '17 and onward, collectively, Rudy has been better and/or more impactful, I'd likely agree with that (though I don't think the margin is big).
But prior to '17, I would say it was clearly Lillard (by notable margin in '14).
And then there's '13 to consider: Lillard was ROY, while Gobert was not yet in the league.

Lillard's got the one extra season, almost a hundred additional games, and something like 6k+ more career minutes. When comparing, for instance, their respective RAPM's or on/off's or whatev, it's important to remember those things are rate metrics: Lillard has, at the very least, sported comparable impact signals while playing nearly a hundred more games and playing an additional 6 mpg in those games (career 36.3 mpg vs 30.3 for Gobert).

Rudy's been my favourite player in the league for a number of years now; I became a Jazz fan for a number of years simply because he was there (though I came to like other players they had in those years [Joe Ingles, Donovan, Royce, Mike Conley]), and I'm not paying more attention [and cheering for more] the TWolves because he's there.
But this is my trend on this forum: I tend to be the defender of players I don't/didn't ever like [e.g. Allen Iverson] because I think they've become underrated here, while I find myself arguing AGAINST my all-time favorite players whom I think have become overrated [e.g. Steve Nash]. Not sure if Rudy is going to wind up in this latter category or not.

But anyway: I rank Lillard higher, yes.

Thanks. Are you considering playoff impact as well?

Post #17 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 4:30 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Is Lillard's "crazy" offensive imprint greater than Gobert's defensive imprint? There's been talk of how Gobert has had trouble in the playoffs but have his playoff troubles been greater than Lillard's? I agree Lillard has been a very good player but it looks to me like the impact arguments are stronger for his contemporary Rudy Gobert.

To the bolded (in a word): yes??

Looking at the recently available '97-'24 career RAPM, Lillard's ORAPM is +7.3 (tied for 2nd with Steph Curry); Gobert's DRAPM is +5.1 (tied for 6th).
From some private studies I'd done in the past, this is not inconsistent with recent NBA history: where the most elite offensive players are able to "tip the scales" on the offensive end to a greater degree than the most elite defenders tip things on that end. (EDIT: fwiw, the value of the single-best DRAPM in this dataset would be good enough for only 6th-place among the ORAPM values)

It could be argued that Gobert's impact OVERALL (offense and defense combined) is comparable or slightly better, because he's actually a small positive on offense, too (whereas Dame has only ever been a negative defender).
*though fwiw, by that same '97-'24 RAPM sample, Lillard still comes out on top: +7.0 to +5.8. There could be noise and inaccuracies in there, obviously (my impression is that Lillard would be WORSE than only a -0.3 defensively, for example), but jsia....

I think if one suggested that from '17 and onward, collectively, Rudy has been better and/or more impactful, I'd likely agree with that (though I don't think the margin is big).
But prior to '17, I would say it was clearly Lillard (by notable margin in '14).
And then there's '13 to consider: Lillard was ROY, while Gobert was not yet in the league.

Lillard's got the one extra season, almost a hundred additional games, and something like 6k+ more career minutes. When comparing, for instance, their respective RAPM's or on/off's or whatev, it's important to remember those things are rate metrics: Lillard has, at the very least, sported comparable impact signals while playing nearly a hundred more games and playing an additional 6 mpg in those games (career 36.3 mpg vs 30.3 for Gobert).

Rudy's been my favourite player in the league for a number of years now; I became a Jazz fan for a number of years simply because he was there (though I came to like other players they had in those years [Joe Ingles, Donovan, Royce, Mike Conley]), and I'm not paying more attention [and cheering for more] the TWolves because he's there.
But this is my trend on this forum: I tend to be the defender of players I don't/didn't ever like [e.g. Allen Iverson] because I think they've become underrated here, while I find myself arguing AGAINST my all-time favorite players whom I think have become overrated [e.g. Steve Nash]. Not sure if Rudy is going to wind up in this latter category or not.

But anyway: I rank Lillard higher, yes.

Thanks. Are you considering playoff impact as well?

Yeah, though in a general sense I don't weight the playoffs as heavily as many here seem to. I value sample size; I also think it's important/relevant/worthwhile to compare players to ALL of their professional peers......not just the better ones. And I think there is achievement ["glory", if you will] to be found in dire/bad team circumstances (in which there's not going to be much [if any] playoff sample).

But wrt to the impact signals/metrics I actually cited above, playoffs is baked right into the pie: those are playoff-included.

OhayoKD · Post #18 » by **OhayoKD** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 5:06 pm

trex_8063 wrote:[Alternate nom: Bob Cousy[/b]
Could also support Allen Iverson if he drew support, though I doubt he will. Not a fan; hate how I often end up being his defender. Dame's offensive imprint is crazy, he needs serious consideration here.
Cousy's a legend, prototype [to a degree], key piece of multiple contenders, has an impact profile that's better than many assume, particularly considering the ORtg/DRtg's on bbref may be skewed by assumed turnover rates which may not apply to the Celtics of circa-1960 [because they were jacking up shots so early in the shotclock]......which means their offense was possibly better [and defense worse] than indicated.

Could you elaborate on that profile? All I recall was Ben's writeup saying the Celtics got better without him over multiple >10 game samples in Cousy's post-prime and a bunch of breakdowns her arguing he was kind of done by 60.

Post #19 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 6:20 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Thanks. Are you considering playoff impact as well?

Yeah, though in a general sense I don't weight the playoffs as heavily as many here seem to. I value sample size; I also think it's important/relevant/worthwhile to compare players to ALL of their professional peers......not just the better ones. And I think there is achievement ["glory", if you will] to be found in dire/bad team circumstances (in which there's not going to be much [if any] playoff sample).

But wrt to the impact signals/metrics I actually cited above, playoffs is baked right into the pie: those are playoff-included.

Generally I look at RS primarily too, but both these guys have been singled out as playoff fail types. For a couple of years, every time you saw Rudy's name people would type, "but you can't play him in the playoffs," where Dame has been slammed for his playoff results as well. Thus, just like looking at a guy whose rep is about playoff performance like Cliff Hagan or Sam Jones, you have to look and see whether those criticisms are justified.

OldSchoolNoBull · Post #20 » by **OldSchoolNoBull** » Thu Feb 8, 2024 7:19 pm

Owly wrote:
LA Bird wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:It seems to me that if you care about efficiency, it's actually Jones who has the significant scoring gap.

Jones, for his career, has an +8.0 rTS, having recorded 7 100+ TS Add seasons.
George, for his career, has a +1.5 rTS, having recorded 1 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Jones, for his career averaged 20.2pp100 RS and 19.9pp100 PO.
George, for his career, averaged 30.8pp100 RS and 28.6pp100 PO.

I'd saying having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of George gives Jones the edge in that department.

This is one of those ideas which sounds good theoretically until you zoom out and apply it consistently elsewhere. For example:

Gobert, for his career, has a +10.9 rTS, having recorded 8 100+ TS Add seasons.
Hakeem, for his career, has a +1.9 rTS, having recorded 2 100+ TS Add season.

For reference regarding their volume:

Gobert, for his career, averaged 20.8 pp100 RS and 20.6 pp100 PO.
Hakeem, for his career, averaged 30.3 pp100 RS and 33.7 pp100 PO.

I'd say having such a dramatic advantage in efficiency while maintaining 2/3 the volume of Hakeem gives Gobert the edge in the scoring department.

And before you say George is not Hakeem, that's not the point here. The problem is using total volume but relative efficiency which is a classic example of manipulating the y axis to exaggerate the scale of the gap. For example, if we flip the variables and frame the comparison as relative volume vs total efficiency for Jones vs George,

Volume
Jones, for his career, averaged -0.5 pp100 below league average, having recorded ZERO 4+ pp100 aseasons
George, for his career, averaged +8.9 pp100 above league average, having recorded TEN 8+ pp100 seasons

Efficiency
Jones, for his career, averaged 60.7% TS
George, for his career, averaged 57.0% TS

George now has an even more dramatic advantage in scoring volume while maintaining >90% the efficiency of Jones.

(I am not personally using this argument. It's just to show how misleading it is to compare total and relative stats the way you did to argue Jones was a significantly better scorer.)

I would have avoided using Hakeem in the illustration to keep the point ... purer. I'm lower than him than most but his career TS% rises in absolute terms in the playoffs (.533 to .569) meaning a greater real terms boost given opposition. Just his regular RS offense some years the overall package isn't that great (e.g. HO OBPM 22-29: 2.3; RG OBPM 22-29: 1.9 - that's a nice framing for Gobert Utah minus rookie and a negative but illustrative one for Olajuwon ... the rising years before the apex, but not the downside and mostly I think regarded as quality years).

This doesn't undermine the actual point, but the weighting given to Olajuwon's playoff performances could strain/blur the clarity of the analogy.

Whilst I may disagree, they didn't (to my eyes) "argue Jones was a significantly better scorer". For me, "I'd say [the examples as they framed them] gives Jones the edge" is more opining on a marginal rather than significant lead.

Well, to be fair, I did say "It seems to me that if you care about efficiency, it's actually Jones who has the significant scoring gap" in the first line of my post, but that was mostly in reaction to LA Bird's assertion that George had a significant scoring gap while citing only volume.

Ultimately, I agree with the way you[Owly] just put it - it either one has an edge as a scorer, it's not a huge one.

I take LA Bird's point though, regarding the ability to flip the argument.