Post#7 » by trex_8063 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:03 pm
Well, this has now become VERY easy with Sheed out of the way. There is now no one among the current candidates who is even REMOTELY close to the top two for me.....
Induction vote: Damian Lillard
J.E.'s full career [playoff included] RAPM has him as tied [with Steph Curry] as the 2nd-best offensive RAPM of the last quarter century.
Tremendous shooting range (literally 2nd only to Steph Curry), has been able to score at volume at very nice shooting efficiency with reasonably solid playmaking and very good turnover economy for a number of years now.
He basically came into the league "NBA-ready", and was REALLY durable for his first nine seasons.
If looking at ANY of his rate metrics (impact metrics included), bear in mind he's averaged 36.3 mpg for his career.
Alternate vote: Adrian Dantley
Monster scorer whose box-based metrics merit his inclusion a long time ago; the lag on his apparent impact and general lack of team success has held him back, but this feels like an appropriate place for him.
Again, no one else close.
Hagan's claim is as an efficient scorer. Yet he's less efficient (even relative to a less efficient league) than Dantley......and on smaller volume.......and in a weaker overall league.......and for a shorter period of time. And he has a coach who actively/publicly criticized his defense.
So why then should I favour him over Dantley? Oh right: ringz.
Basically, he's a short prime in a weak era, nice box-based metrics for a handful of years [with precisely two years where he looks like a playoff riser], though with impact signals that lag well-behind (and an account from a coach expounding on how he's a bad defender......which perhaps explains the phenomenon??). And I note that NO ONE in his own time thought as highly of him as we're trying to elevate him to now, after the fact.
Anyway, as I've elaborated on before, the things that stand out to me are: short prime, weak era, weak impact signals in said era, and accolades or opinions of contemporaries somewhat lacking too.
Rudy Gobert is one of my favorite players of all-time; but he suffers in my methodology for some of the same reasons Bobby Jones did: he's got just 10 seasons [missing a significant chunk in two of them], and averaged just 30.3 mpg within this span. Granted playing time skews lower these days, but it still rides right on the edge of "limited" at times. He's actually played <21k minutes prior to this season (even Bobby Jones had almost 5k more than that). That puts too much of a cap on his possible career value to this stage. Hagan is probably the ONLY one of the candidates I'd put Gobert ahead of presently.
And again: this is perhaps my favourite player of the league currently.
Rodman gets a lot of compliments that run along the lines of "GOAT-level rebounding and all-time tier defense". Except he was rarely [ever?] both of these things at the same time. He actively sacrificed good defense to be a GOAT-level rebounder. He can be seen neglecting to box guys out to instead "chase" the rebound (to his credit, his instincts were good, as was his quickness [especially on that second/third jump], and his energy in this endeavour was tenacious). He also completely gave up perimeter defense (one of the things he was known to be a versatile "stopper" with during early years in Detroit) to chase those rebounds. This is a big part of why Robert Horry goes off like an All-Star in the series against San Antonio: because Rodman is often no where to be found near his man.
His off-court antics and persona also leave a lot to be desired.
That said, his impact signals are at least decent/good, generally, and he was a key piece in a number of title teams. Still, I think his position in lists such as this overstate his value/importance.
If it came to runoff, I'd rate this field like so: Lillard > Dantley >> Rodman > Gobert/Hagan
Nomination: Allen Iverson
Alternate nomination: Bob Cousy
I may swap these two, pending prevailing winds. Not a fan of Iverson; hate how I often end up being his defender.
Cousy's a legend, prototype [to a degree], key piece of multiple contenders, has an impact profile that's better than many assume, particularly considering the ORtg/DRtg's on bbref may be skewed by assumed turnover rates which may not apply to the Celtics of circa-1960 [because they were jacking up shots so early in the shotclock]......which means their offense was possibly better [and defense worse] than indicated.
See circa-post #20 in the #71 thread for further arguments regarding the Houdini of the Hardwood.
Iverson, while not efficient [as a shooter/scorer], he was able to shoulder immense offensive volume with a reasonably impressive turnover economy and semi-passable shooting efficiency (and I must admit that I do think the "Iverson assist" is a real thing: draw the help D at the rim, miss the shot, but now a big-man teammate is there with no one blocking him out). Not to mention his motor, which was insane, allowing him to be frequently #1 or #2 in mpg.
In these ways he could "carry" a team bereft of offensive talent or depth, and get them to tread water. It's not nothing.
And for better or worse [probably for worse], he was an icon to the sport, who influenced its trajectory to no small degree.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
