Better career, James Harden or Chris Paul?

[dygaction]

The question is as of today. To me CP3's best seasons are over and James Harden might have a few more seasons left.
I see most voting based on this board has CP3 higher but James has been more healthier in the playoffs, and achieved as least as much.
CP3: 1250 regular season games, 42760 min played; 149 playoffs and 5442 min played
Harden: 1054 regular season games, 36617 min played; 160 playoffs and 5750 min played
Harden has 1 MVP and 5 seasons that he finished top 3 MVPs. CP3 has 2 seasons with top 3 MVP finish.

[iggymcfrack]

Easily Chris Paul. Much better defender, much better postseason player. Better meaningful longevity, better impact stats.

[dygaction]

Easily Chris Paul. Much better defender, much better postseason player. Better meaningful longevity, better impact stats.

What makes CP3 a better postseason player, without "much" first? Harden drafted 4 years later than CP3. Harden has already played and won more playoffs games (85w-75l) and series (15w-14l) compared to CP3 playoffs games (76w-73l) and series (12w-15l). "Meaningful longevity" means the player needs to stay healthy when it matters the most, playoffs, which is exactly opposite for CP3. In fact, Harden was the victim of CP3's lack of meaningful longevity.

[GoBobs]

Both were an embarrassment to the game with their flopping and foul hunting, but Harden took it to another level, so Paul pretty easily.

[BlackThought]

I have it as a tie or slightly to Chris Paul. Harden's MVP and his team being the only team to put up a fight against those Warriors makes it close.

[iggymcfrack]

Easily Chris Paul. Much better defender, much better postseason player. Better meaningful longevity, better impact stats.

What makes CP3 a better postseason player, without "much" first? Harden drafted 4 years later than CP3. Harden has already played and won more playoffs games (85w-75l) and series (15w-14l) compared to CP3 playoffs games (76w-73l) and series (12w-15l). "Meaningful longevity" means the player needs to stay healthy when it matters the most, playoffs, which is exactly opposite for CP3. In fact, Harden was the victim of CP3's lack of meaningful longevity.

Through the same age, here are their stats:

Harden: 22.0 PER, 6.2 BPM, +2.8 NetRtg, +8.5 on/off
Paul: 24.5 PER, 7.6 BPM, +7.1 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off

[dygaction]

Easily Chris Paul. Much better defender, much better postseason player. Better meaningful longevity, better impact stats.

What makes CP3 a better postseason player, without "much" first? Harden drafted 4 years later than CP3. Harden has already played and won more playoffs games (85w-75l) and series (15w-14l) compared to CP3 playoffs games (76w-73l) and series (12w-15l). "Meaningful longevity" means the player needs to stay healthy when it matters the most, playoffs, which is exactly opposite for CP3. In fact, Harden was the victim of CP3's lack of meaningful longevity.

Through the same age, here are their stats:

Harden: 22.0 PER, 6.2 BPM, +2.8 NetRtg, +8.5 on/off
Paul: 24.5 PER, 7.6 BPM, +7.1 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

[iggymcfrack]

What makes CP3 a better postseason player, without "much" first? Harden drafted 4 years later than CP3. Harden has already played and won more playoffs games (85w-75l) and series (15w-14l) compared to CP3 playoffs games (76w-73l) and series (12w-15l). "Meaningful longevity" means the player needs to stay healthy when it matters the most, playoffs, which is exactly opposite for CP3. In fact, Harden was the victim of CP3's lack of meaningful longevity.

Through the same age, here are their stats:

Harden: 22.0 PER, 6.2 BPM, +2.8 NetRtg, +8.5 on/off
Paul: 24.5 PER, 7.6 BPM, +7.1 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

[dygaction]

Through the same age, here are their stats:

Harden: 22.0 PER, 6.2 BPM, +2.8 NetRtg, +8.5 on/off
Paul: 24.5 PER, 7.6 BPM, +7.1 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

The point is that CP3 never got to pass the second round until playing next to Harden, whereas Harden had done it four times. Those stats only make sense if they have similar base games and level of competition, but Harden had 50% more and better teams to against in deeper playoff runs.

You are blaming Blake getting hurt but also seem to punishing Harden for staying healthy and ready to contribute to playoffs when needed while give CP3 a clear pass for not being healthy.

[Franco]

Through the same age, here are their stats:

Harden: 22.0 PER, 6.2 BPM, +2.8 NetRtg, +8.5 on/off
Paul: 24.5 PER, 7.6 BPM, +7.1 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

Blake was arguably not even the most hurt star of that duo. CP3 can't stay healthy in the postseason to save his life.

[HeartBreakKid]

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

Blake was arguably not even the most hurt star of that duo. CP3 can't stay healthy in the postseason to save his life.

It'd be a pretty poor argument, Blake Griffin was definitely affected more by injures than CP3. You could not make a rational argument stating otherwise.


Saying Chris Paul is injury prone does not negate that Blake Griffin is injury prone.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Chris Paul

He is better by box-score and plus-minus career value metrics.

CP3

VORP-108.83 (6th all-time)

WS-229.13 (8th)


Harden

VORP-91.17 (15th all-time)

WS-185.68 (24 th all-time)


Keep in mind, CP3 stands out even more in per-possession impact. His playoff career value is hurt by some shorter playoff stints.

Looking at long-term RAPM, CP3 comes out superior.

97-2024 Englemann RAPM (No age adjustment)

CP3: +9 (3rd)

Harden: +6.3 (21st)


If you look at RAPM that adjusts for age, the gap growths a bit.

97-2024 Englemann RAPM

CP3: +9.4 (3rd)

Harden: +6.4 (24th)


CP3 is having more per-possession impact over several more possessions so far in his career. Harden would have to have an unusual age curve to catch CP3 by the same age, or (more realistic), have special longevity to pass Paul, despite weaker per-possession impact.

CP3's playmaking, defense, and general turnover economy over a number of years matters.

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1493979328757084165%7Ctwgr%5Ee07887ca6bfc50bb9f680a713cff11a1b3869a05%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fsearch.php%3Fst%3D0sk%3Dtsd%3Ddsr%3Dpostskeywords%3DPaulauthor_id%3D239721start%3D140

In my estimation, Harden's PS play hasn't been at CP3's level either. The only thing you could maybe dock CP3 for is his durability in some PS runs. If you don't think they are flukey injuries, and you really believe CP3 would be incapable of playing close to the same level through a whole championship run, then Harden makes up ground.

Though CP3 faced historically difficult defenses in his prime, and improved from the RS to the PS. So its not like Paul wasn't challenged but would be based more on the belief that CP3's play would fall off a clip against weaker defenses, in a vacuum, do to his physical shortcomings.

And while Harden made deeper playoff runs, Paul faced some historic PS defenses. From 12-16, CP3 some of the faced the toughest defenses ever of any superstar by rDRTG in a 5-year span, facing an average D of -2.61 (12-16) just barely behind Karl Malone for 3rd place of the toughest defenses ever faced for notable superstars https://diamondhoop5.wordpress.com/2021/07/12/playoff-defenses-faced-update/.

Not only did CP3 not necessarily get to boost his playoff numbers against bad defenses, but he looks this insane going up great ones and gives the imprint of a guy who is an all-timer who ran up against some tough teams. Paul's team offenses haven been great, posting a playoff offensive relative efficiency of +5.7 from 2013-17 and a 3-year offensive peak of 7.7 (15-17). Though even if you adjust for Harden's defenses be tougher, there is nothing that suggests he would be at the same level of play as Paul. Paul's team offensive profile has been better by my estimation.

All-in-all:

Chris Paul's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.4


5-year BPM-9.60

3-year PS On/Off-14.7

CP3 also has a higher 3-year peak in the PS xgboost model predicting LEBRON created by one of the developers of the LEBRON metric (box-score only though)

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Harden's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.3

5-year BPM-8.3

3-year Peak LEBRON-5.28

I don't believe it egregious to give Paul the edge over Harden when you consider that CP3's prime was longer and statistically his playoff peak looks so abnormally good. The longevity is impressive. The longevity is impressive. For instance, Paul has the 2nd most postseason runs over +4 in AuPM per game since 1997 with 7 (behind Lebron), so he has shown great consistency. Keep in mind a +4 is around the area of what you would expect for a top 5 guy, so that is significant added value.

[LukaTheGOAT]

My question was both players as of now. You cannot claim CP3 has edge on longevity and only compare CP3's until Harden's age... You are dropping CP3's only final appearance by setting this cut off time, then he would only have 102 playoffs games to compare with Harden's 149.

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

The point is that CP3 never got to pass the second round until playing next to Harden, whereas Harden had done it four times. Those stats only make sense if they have similar base games and level of competition, but Harden had 50% more and better teams to against in deeper playoff runs.

You are blaming Blake getting hurt but also seem to punishing Harden for staying healthy and ready to contribute to playoffs when needed while give CP3 a clear pass for not being healthy.

Harden didn't have 50% more. Harden doesn't grade out as a better PS by box-score metrics, so I am not sure saying Harden accumulated more stats makes sense. He certainly got more points.

[iggymcfrack]

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

The point is that CP3 never got to pass the second round until playing next to Harden, whereas Harden had done it four times. Those stats only make sense if they have similar base games and level of competition, but Harden had 50% more and better teams to against in deeper playoff runs.

You are blaming Blake getting hurt but also seem to punishing Harden for staying healthy and ready to contribute to playoffs when needed while give CP3 a clear pass for not being healthy.

Harden didn't have 50% more. Harden doesn't grade out as a better PS by box-score metrics, so I am not sure saying Harden accumulated more stats makes sense. He certainly got more points.

Chris Paul actually has identical PS VORP to Harden and more PS WS despite only playing 149 games to Harden’s 160.

[dygaction]

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

The point is that CP3 never got to pass the second round until playing next to Harden, whereas Harden had done it four times. Those stats only make sense if they have similar base games and level of competition, but Harden had 50% more and better teams to against in deeper playoff runs.

You are blaming Blake getting hurt but also seem to punishing Harden for staying healthy and ready to contribute to playoffs when needed while give CP3 a clear pass for not being healthy.

Harden didn't have 50% more. Harden doesn't grade out as a better PS by box-score metrics, so I am not sure saying Harden accumulated more stats makes sense. He certainly got more points.

iggy was comparing them to the same age of Harden, so Harden would have 160 playoff games vs. CP3's 102. Being able to get to the playoffs more and playing deeper mean more than just accumulated stats. In that regards, CP3 had 2133 total playoff points; Harden had 3637 points. That's close to double than comparable.

[dygaction]

The point is that CP3 never got to pass the second round until playing next to Harden, whereas Harden had done it four times. Those stats only make sense if they have similar base games and level of competition, but Harden had 50% more and better teams to against in deeper playoff runs.

You are blaming Blake getting hurt but also seem to punishing Harden for staying healthy and ready to contribute to playoffs when needed while give CP3 a clear pass for not being healthy.

Harden didn't have 50% more. Harden doesn't grade out as a better PS by box-score metrics, so I am not sure saying Harden accumulated more stats makes sense. He certainly got more points.

Chris Paul actually has identical PS VORP to Harden and more PS WS despite only playing 149 games to Harden’s 160.

With so many stats available, pulling the PS VORP thing is the strangest and most out of the box...

[Franco]

The point is that CP3 was better at each age than Harden. I’m not gonna punish him for Blake Griffin getting hurt all the time or give Harden a bunch of credit for playing lots of playoff games off the bench next to Durant and Westbrook.

Blake was arguably not even the most hurt star of that duo. CP3 can't stay healthy in the postseason to save his life.

It'd be a pretty poor argument, Blake Griffin was definitely affected more by injures than CP3. You could not make a rational argument stating otherwise.


Saying Chris Paul is injury prone does not negate that Blake Griffin is injury prone.

It's not about negating anything, it's the fact that you can't count on CP3 to be healthy at all. Blake and him aren't that far apart in their time as Clippers.

From 2011-12 to 16-17:

Blake - 389 games played

CP3 - 409 games played

In the playoffs:

Blake - 51 games played

CP3 - 52 games played

CP3 basically played a little under 4 more games per season than Blake did.

[dygaction]

Blake was arguably not even the most hurt star of that duo. CP3 can't stay healthy in the postseason to save his life.

It'd be a pretty poor argument, Blake Griffin was definitely affected more by injures than CP3. You could not make a rational argument stating otherwise.


Saying Chris Paul is injury prone does not negate that Blake Griffin is injury prone.

It's not about negating anything, it's the fact that you can't count on CP3 to be healthy at all. Blake and him aren't that far apart in their time as Clippers.

From 2011-12 to 16-17:

Blake - 389 games played

CP3 - 409 games played

In the playoffs:

Blake - 51 games played

CP3 - 52 games played

CP3 basically played a little under 4 more games per season than Blake did.

Should also consider missed playoff games or series and put a much higher weight on it. If the team played 82 games to get there and franchise player is missing, you can declare the 82 game effort is gone, unless you think the player is not that important to the team.

[CKRT]

I think I lean CP3 here but Paul's....unwillingness to take risks with the ball gives me at least a little pause with how that might reflect in some of his advance stats. I haven't sat down and done the calculations but with how overly protective Paul is with the ball it at least plays a little. BPM/VORP both value playing more minutes too which goes in Harden's favor so perhaps it's a wash.

[dygaction]

Those stats are overrated and should not be the deciding factors. CP3 can be 3rd all time in VORP and 3rd all time in WS, Steph can be 30 or behind, I will still take Steph without hesitation over Harden or CP3.

Chris Paul

He is better by box-score and plus-minus career value metrics.

CP3

VORP-108.83 (6th all-time)

WS-229.13 (8th)


Harden

VORP-91.17 (15th all-time)

WS-185.68 (24 th all-time)


Keep in mind, CP3 stands out even more in per-possession impact. His playoff career value is hurt by some shorter playoff stints.

Looking at long-term RAPM, CP3 comes out superior.

97-2024 Englemann RAPM (No age adjustment)

CP3: +9 (3rd)

Harden: +6.3 (21st)


If you look at RAPM that adjusts for age, the gap growths a bit.

97-2024 Englemann RAPM

CP3: +9.4 (3rd)

Harden: +6.4 (24th)


CP3 is having more per-possession impact over several more possessions so far in his career. Harden would have to have an unusual age curve to catch CP3 by the same age, or (more realistic), have special longevity to pass Paul, despite weaker per-possession impact.

CP3's playmaking, defense, and general turnover economy over a number of years matters.

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1493979328757084165%7Ctwgr%5Ee07887ca6bfc50bb9f680a713cff11a1b3869a05%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fsearch.php%3Fst%3D0sk%3Dtsd%3Ddsr%3Dpostskeywords%3DPaulauthor_id%3D239721start%3D140

In my estimation, Harden's PS play hasn't been at CP3's level either. The only thing you could maybe dock CP3 for is his durability in some PS runs. If you don't think they are flukey injuries, and you really believe CP3 would be incapable of playing close to the same level through a whole championship run, then Harden makes up ground.

Though CP3 faced historically difficult defenses in his prime, and improved from the RS to the PS. So its not like Paul wasn't challenged but would be based more on the belief that CP3's play would fall off a clip against weaker defenses, in a vacuum, do to his physical shortcomings.

And while Harden made deeper playoff runs, Paul faced some historic PS defenses. From 12-16, CP3 some of the faced the toughest defenses ever of any superstar by rDRTG in a 5-year span, facing an average D of -2.61 (12-16) just barely behind Karl Malone for 3rd place of the toughest defenses ever faced for notable superstars https://diamondhoop5.wordpress.com/2021/07/12/playoff-defenses-faced-update/.

Not only did CP3 not necessarily get to boost his playoff numbers against bad defenses, but he looks this insane going up great ones and gives the imprint of a guy who is an all-timer who ran up against some tough teams. Paul's team offenses haven been great, posting a playoff offensive relative efficiency of +5.7 from 2013-17 and a 3-year offensive peak of 7.7 (15-17). Though even if you adjust for Harden's defenses be tougher, there is nothing that suggests he would be at the same level of play as Paul. Paul's team offensive profile has been better by my estimation.

All-in-all:

Chris Paul's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.4


5-year BPM-9.60

3-year PS On/Off-14.7

CP3 also has a higher 3-year peak in the PS xgboost model predicting LEBRON created by one of the developers of the LEBRON metric (box-score only though)

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Harden's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.3

5-year BPM-8.3

3-year Peak LEBRON-5.28

I don't believe it egregious to give Paul the edge over Harden when you consider that CP3's prime was longer and statistically his playoff peak looks so abnormally good. The longevity is impressive. The longevity is impressive. For instance, Paul has the 2nd most postseason runs over +4 in AuPM per game since 1997 with 7 (behind Lebron), so he has shown great consistency. Keep in mind a +4 is around the area of what you would expect for a top 5 guy, so that is significant added value.