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Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

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Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 2:21 am
by letskissbro
This came out a couple days ago:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KiGykvmgXmDv5ibAtobHui-DfjjRhpBueHrJMD8v3vk/htmlview

The previous 1997-2024 set Engelmann put out was RS + PS. This is just PS isolated. There is no aging curve applied this time according to Engelmann.

Top 10 overall:
Spoiler:
1. LeBron James : 7.7
2. Draymond Green : 6.3
3. Manu Ginobili : 5.9
4. Tim Duncan : 5.6
5. Kevin Durant : 5.2
6. Stephen Curry : 4.9
7. Jamal Murray : 4.5
8. Ray Allen : 4.2
9. James Harden : 4.2
10. Jayson Tatum: 4.1

Top 10 ORAPM
Spoiler:
1. LeBron James : 5.4
2. James Harden : 5.1
3. Stephen Curry : 4.5
4. Kevin Durant : 4.3
5. Ray Allen : 4.0
6. Jamal Murray : 3.8
7. Kyrie Irving : 3.8
8. Channing Frye : 3.7
9. Chauncey Billups : 3.4
10. Steve Nash : 3.3

Top 10 DRAPM:
Spoiler:
1. Ben Wallace : -3.3
2. Draymond Green: -3.2
3. Manu Ginobili : -3.2
4. David Robinson : -2.9
5. Tim Duncan : -2.7
6. P.J. Tucker : -2.7
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo : -2.5
8. Jason Collins : -2.4
9. LeBron James : -2.3
10. Kevin Garnett : -2.3

2020s Notables *1000+ MP* (ORAPM|DRAPM|Total):
Spoiler:
7. Jamal Murray : 3.8 | -0.7 | 4.5
11. Jayson Tatum : 1.9 | -2.2 | 4.1
14. Joel Embiid : 1.9 | -1.8 | 3.7
42. Giannis Antetokounmpo : -0.4 | -2.5 | 2.1
71. Jalen Brunson : 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.7
84. Devin Booker : 1.5 | 0 | 1.5
93. Nikola Jokic : 2.3 | 1 | 1.3
95. Jaylen Brown : 0.3 | -0.9 | 1.2
102. Bam Adebayo : 1 | -0.2 | 1.2
132. Donovan Mitchell : 1 | 0.2 | 0.8
190. Luka Doncic : 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 2:46 am
by EmpireFalls
Channing Frye…

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:21 am
by GSP
The gap b/w Draymond and Steph is nuts considering how much their mins overlap

But Steph didnt play in a number of playoff games tho that Warriors still dominated

Murray and Jokic too

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:38 am
by lessthanjake
Given how tiny playoff off samples are, I think this is mostly extremely noisy to the point of being not very useful, except perhaps to look at the small number of people with tons of playoff games in this data set (guys like LeBron, Steph, Draymond, Duncan, and Ginobili), and even some of those wouldn’t be much less noisy than single-season RAPM (which is super noisy). And it’s actually probably even worse than just looking at the off minutes would lead you to believe, because, even for those players with lots of playoff minutes, the model will be trying to control for the presence of other players that have a very small amount of playoff data. So, basically, the adjustments the model makes compared to on-off will be mostly based on garbage.

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 5:19 am
by Doctor MJ
GSP wrote:The gap b/w Draymond and Steph is nuts considering how much their mins overlap

But Steph didnt play in a number of playoff games tho that Warriors still dominated

Murray and Jokic too


My analysis suggests that if you were to just chop out the first round games, the gap between Dray & Steph may basically disappear.

Jokic is interesting with this because it really doesn't look good for him...but at this point it's hard for me to actually see it as a serious concern. While it's certainly more impressive to have a big On/Off in any circumstance, most of the time guys who play huge minutes in a losing effort have bad Ons, and so as long as I'm seeing a guy do amazing things as a matter of course, and demonstrating that he can lead teams to great playoff success this way, it doesn't seem that big of a deal to me.

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 5:24 am
by Doctor MJ
On the dark side, here are the lowest ranked guys who were named all-star and/or All-NBA in their career:

Tom Gugliotta -4.4
Anthony Mason -4.4
DeMar DeRozan -4.3
Andre Drummond -4.0
Caron Butler -4.0
Stephon Marbury -3.9
Wally Szczerbiak -3.9
Zydrunas Ilgauskas -3.8
Gordon Hayward -3.5
Clifford Robinson -3.3

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 5:45 am
by jalengreen
Doctor MJ wrote:On the dark side, here are the lowest ranked guys who were named all-star and/or All-NBA in their career:

Tom Gugliotta -4.4
Anthony Mason -4.4
DeMar DeRozan -4.3
Andre Drummond -4.0
Caron Butler -4.0
Stephon Marbury -3.9
Wally Szczerbiak -3.9
Zydrunas Ilgauskas -3.8
Gordon Hayward -3.5
Clifford Robinson -3.3


Image

Re: Engelmann Playoff only RAPM (1997-2024)

Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 6:33 am
by OldSchoolNoBull
Doctor MJ wrote:On the dark side, here are the lowest ranked guys who were named all-star and/or All-NBA in their career:

Tom Gugliotta -4.4
Anthony Mason -4.4
DeMar DeRozan -4.3
Andre Drummond -4.0
Caron Butler -4.0
Stephon Marbury -3.9
Wally Szczerbiak -3.9
Zydrunas Ilgauskas -3.8
Gordon Hayward -3.5
Clifford Robinson -3.3


It looks like he just missed your cutoff, but...

Camelo Anthony: #1414, -3.1

And not that I take too much from the small sample sizes, but a couple other observations:

1. Chris Webber is just outside the Top 100, at 1.0. Meanwhile Bosh is #1302 at -2.4, and Horford and Gobert are also lower than Webber(though still in the Top 200). Just wanted to give C-Webb some love since he rarely gets any around here.

2. #71 seems low for Kobe.

3. #397 seems WAY low for Paul Pierce.

4. Tony Parker doesn't look great - #357, -0.6 - especially in comparison to his teammates Duncan, Manu, DRob, Kawhi, and even Danny Green, who are all in the Top 20 and all 3.5+.

5. Dwight Howard all the way down at #874, at -1.3.
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