2000-2004 Shaq V Kobe RAPM - What does it say?

rebirthoftheM · Post #1 » by **rebirthoftheM** » Fri May 24, 2024 6:25 pm

Working off this data set https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

1999-2000
Kobe: 3.356 (#14 in League)
Shaq: 2.6454 (#30 in League)
Horry #1 of Team at 3.6274 (#10 League)

2000-2001
Kobe: 2.1984 (#36 in League)
Shaq: 1.9689 (#50 in League)
Fisher #1 of Team at 3.4327 (#14 in League)

2001-2002
Kobe: 2.2119 (#34 in League)
Shaq: 3.9205 (#4 in League)
Shaq Leads Team

2002-2003
Kobe: 2.3125 (#33 in League)
Shaq: 1.8249 (#44 in League)
Kobe Leads Team

2003-2004
Kobe: 1.7794 (#53 in League)
Shaq: 1.7848 (#52 in League)
Shaq Leads Team

5 full seasons. Kobe leads Shaq in 3 seasons and Shaq 2 (one with a very tiny margin)

What do we make of these results in light of Shaq's much superior individual production and the perception that Shaq was absolutely the better player of the two and more impactful for the Lakers than Kobe during these years (particularly in 99-00 where he was perceived to be the undisputed #1 in the league)?

Does this call into question the usefulness and value of RAPM?

Amares · Post #2 » by **Amares** » Fri May 24, 2024 7:01 pm

Took a look at my excels with RAPM, and in 2000 PI it looks like this:

1. Shaq 9,05
(...)
125. Bryant 0,61

Those Gotbuckets and Engelmann RAPMs are also clear on this for the 2000-2004 seasons, both for NPI and PI. Shaq's advantage is sometimes huge, sometimes a little, but he's certainly clearly over Kobe whichever you check, so the question would be more about RAPM itself and how it is calculated by different sources. But considering how low both Kobe and Shaq are in the one you shared, I would question this formula and source in the first place.

rebirthoftheM · Post #3 » by **rebirthoftheM** » Fri May 24, 2024 7:07 pm

Amares wrote:Took a look at my excels with RAPM, and in 2000 PI it looks like this:

1. Shaq 9,05
(...)
125. Bryant 0,61

Those Gotbuckets and Engelmann RAPMs are also clear on this for the 2000-2004 seasons, both for NPI and PI. Shaq's advantage is sometimes huge, sometimes a little, but he's certainly clearly over Kobe whichever you check, so the question would be more about RAPM itself and how it is calculated by different sources. But considering how low both Kobe and Shaq are in the one you shared, I would question this formula and source in the first place.

Thanks for clarification & please do send it on.

Your response makes sense. The 2000 Shaq RAPM on there is simply unbelievable to take on face value.

Special_Puppy · Post #4 » by **Special_Puppy** » Sat May 25, 2024 1:30 am

Single Single RAPM is super noisy. 5-Year RAPM over that time period has Shaq way ahead of Kobe mostly do to the difference in defensive value.
https://thebasketballdatabase.com/977RegularSeasonAdvanced.html
https://thebasketballdatabase.com/406RegularSeasonAdvanced.html

One_and_Done · Post #5 » by **One_and_Done** » Sat May 25, 2024 8:06 am

Lakers were 23-26 in the Shaq-Kobe era in games Kobe played and Shaq missed, but played at a 60+ win pace in games Shaq played without Kobe. That tells you all you need to know.

Owly · Post #6 » by **Owly** » Sat May 25, 2024 12:17 pm

rebirthoftheM wrote:Working off this data set https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

1999-2000
Kobe: 3.356 (#14 in League)
Shaq: 2.6454 (#30 in League)
Horry #1 of Team at 3.6274 (#10 League)

2000-2001
Kobe: 2.1984 (#36 in League)
Shaq: 1.9689 (#50 in League)
Fisher #1 of Team at 3.4327 (#14 in League)

2001-2002
Kobe: 2.2119 (#34 in League)
Shaq: 3.9205 (#4 in League)
Shaq Leads Team

2002-2003
Kobe: 2.3125 (#33 in League)
Shaq: 1.8249 (#44 in League)
Kobe Leads Team

2003-2004
Kobe: 1.7794 (#53 in League)
Shaq: 1.7848 (#52 in League)
Shaq Leads Team

5 full seasons. Kobe leads Shaq in 3 seasons and Shaq 2 (one with a very tiny margin)

What do we make of these results in light of Shaq's much superior individual production and the perception that Shaq was absolutely the better player of the two and more impactful for the Lakers than Kobe during these years (particularly in 99-00 where he was perceived to be the undisputed #1 in the league)?

Does this call into question the usefulness and value of RAPM?

Very much not an expert but that particular source for RAPM has some results that might suggest issues with it in particular rather than the idea in general.

It's not an amazing season for him but 2010 Nash is 2nd on his team in terms of on off (on a pretty good team). His RAPM from that source is the worst on the team and really quite bad within the league.
That's the year I think that's been noted before.
Take it back one year he leads the Suns in terms of on-off ... again below average.
'08 Nash is the very clear on-off leader, but 4th on the team.
Heck by this source between 05 and 10 he's never higher than 3rd on the team ('05 and '07). 3rd again in '11. It's quite a way out of line with other RAPM numbers I've seen to.

I know it won't track 1-to-1 with on-off but ... this isn't even a clash between perceptions derived some other primary framework, this seems to be not tracking well with a pretty raw form of impact data. It seems this isn't a RAPM problem so much as source problem.