Owly wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Owly wrote:Saying he's "the one" who "dominated" all comers ...
sounds like he gets singular credit for that run.
sounds like he or Portland were dominant.
Against that on an individual level he was outproduced by his positional peer (perhaps outplayed?) in the one round his team was dominant. At a team level, they're the better team in all the others but not to the point where where flipping an outcome and the series (or else sending it to a decider) is particularly wild.
Meanwhile on a box level he's a little diminished versus his RS output whilst his frontcourt starters kick up a gear in that respect
Initials: PER; WS/48; BPM
BW: 19.7; .162; 6.0
ML: 19.0; .169; 4.2
BG: 18.7; .203; 5.6 (Gross plays fewer minutes than the other two)
By the box ... and the box doesn't capture everything, they look more like roughly equals than a one dominant figure.
Now as I say the box doesn't tell everything ... but then that's been the sore spot for playoff Embiid. It's super noisy but if the case for Walton is presented as titles and presumably assumed impact driving them ... Embiid does have an impact signal in the playoffs (career +17.6 playoff on-off). As I say super noisy ...
Idk, but my first glance thought is Embiid gives you more "good enough and healthy enough" seasons to give his teams a chance - obviously not the same chance as if he were healthier but healthy enough to amass some "CORP"/championship probability added/notional ring equity cumulatively. Walton happened to have the right team in the right year that made his clear cut best shot (if one dings him for playoff health in '78, approaches can vary) pay off ... that feels quite fortunate to me, but mileage can differ. I think I may (by instinct, I don't have a thorough methodology) be lower than the norm here on Walton as a pro though fwiw, and am open to being wrong on that.
Fair point specifically with the Kareem comparison. Did he truly dominate Kareem? Probably not and I should have used a less hyperbolic choice of words.
With that said, I do think Walton was the more valuable player in the time period over Kareem, and I think outperforming Kareem is a much bigger deal than anything I've seen from Embiid in the playoffs to this point.
Re: Walton happened to have the right team. I don't think his supporting cast was all that singular, and that might be why we diverge in our assessment of Walton.
So ... right now (always, but especially right now) this doesn't seem that important. Walton (RIP) was a great and significant player and spoke out about things he cared about and did keep trying to play on a body that kept failing him ... I don't particularly mythologize sports stars but Walton seemed like a good person ... that's the context, spirit of this.
For me I'm not sure he did outperform Kareem. I haven't watched that series at all closely though. I don't know if other Lakers shoot badly because of Walton (and was Jabbar not protecting on the other end), or because they're not that good or luck.
I don't think that cast was amazing. I do think they're better than the '77 WoWY would suggest (especially versions including the playoffs for the "in", where other Blazers seem to be at an unsustainable level and perhaps inadvertently harming their perception) and a good fit for Walton and played well in those playoffs. I think his peak lining up with a lack of dominant teams helped. I'm not sure peak Walton "works" the same way for the Petrie-Wicks Blazers or for the Clippers teams. Maybe they're bad cultures and he was broadly unfortunate but shifting his healthy peak outside that two year (or 1.X) window I can easily see him without a title (heck per above it doesn't take wild swings to flip or extend the irl series). This isn't to deny the impact signal that's there (though regarding the original debate, to the extent that what was offered was playoff centric, cf the above Embiid's playoff on-off, with the caveats given).
And then without a title ... one possible point of comparison is say ... Thurmond. There's differences but ... Thurmond too has a high WoWY indicator for peak-ish impact. Thurmond sustained closer to his peak for longer and despite missing chunks of seasons was still substantially healthier. Thurmond was somewhat in the shadows of giants ... Walton ... I don't know the detail so I won't get too speculative and I know his politics turned some people off ... there were probably advantages to being the white guy (on a, I think, fairly white team) when the big rival was the taciturn, black Muslim who has dominated the league and to a lesser degree awards. Walton was the higher pick and had the storybook college career. I don't know but my guess is people see them as different tiers for circa apex years and leaving aside narrative and speaking otoh, without close study of numbers and health for specific years ... I don't know I think maybe people perceive a peak gap that I'm less sure of and Walton's circa apex era might get mythologized. I may very well be wrong here.
Fwiw, for '77 whilst Portland undoubtedly significantly missed him when out it seems like their points diff was clearly at its greatest in games he player 20 to 29 minutes. Don't know if he was building leads and the others merely sustaining or what. It's already a noisy measure and I'm just looking at arbitrary minute bin thresholds.
Yeah, RIP to Walton and it's awkward for you that he passed in the middle of this conversation. Wouldn't begrudge leaving the debate for another time, but since you responded:
I think Kareem has a strong argument for being the more impressive player compared to Walton basically always, and in that 1977 series, Kareem was hitting shots at an astonishing level. And yet from an impact perspective, I think Walton was having more impact.
I think the most interesting thing to think about is just about how something like this is possible. In general "fit" is always a significant part of the equation and something I don't think we really reckon with enough as we do player comparisons.
But with Walton there's also the matter of the Blazers playing in an unusual style that allows Walton have profound impact, and this gets all the more interesting imho when you understand the history of it. This wasn't a gimmick style that couldn't be expected to compete more broadly, it's what a pivot DID on the court until Mikan turned pivots into volume scorers, and volume scoring pivots for the most part weren't as successful as contemporaries thought they were after the key was widened. I think you can make the argument that NBA teams should have largely abandoned volume scoring bigs from that point on, but they didn't, and so we now look at Walton as a weird phenomenon even now as we watch Jokic take the style to a new level.
Now, with Kareem's shooting ability, I'm not saying he should have been turned into a Walton-like pivot passer. You go with the outlier star strengths you have access to...thing is, I'd argue that Kareem was more of a weird outlier than Walton. I mean, Kareem is the all-time leader in career TS Add, but who tries to shoot like him today? Absolutely nobody.
All of the offense talk those, as interesting as it is, shouldn't leave us to forget that Walton was another tier as a defender, and that he used his defense to kickstart the offense extremely rapidly. Not saying that should be enough necessarily to elevate him over Kareem, but defense is what makes bigs the most valuable players of that era, and so for Walton to have the edge there is no small thing.
Re: Thurmond. I think Thurmond's impact and longevity gives him a strong career argument, but I also think he hurts your team's offense and lowers your ceiling, and I think the fact that the Warriors moved on to a chip only when they let go of him really makes it hard for me to take the WOWY stats too seriously. It would be one thing if they moved on from him when he was considered far past prime, but that's really not what happened.
Re: Walton possibly overrated as a more palatable choice for fans/writers of the era. I think that's less of Walton-getting-overrated thing and more of a Kareem-getting-underrated thing.
I think that the critical reason why Walton gets singular support on this board has to do with the WOWY and the high peak his team seemed to hit when he was healthy, and while it was start enough that even people at the time had to notice, we here would be noticing this data regardless, and it's pretty amazing data.
For Kareem, I actually think it's less about race or creed and more about personality - taciturn as you say. I consider Kareem the greatest intellectual in NBA history, but he's also remarkably anti-charismatic. And while we can point a finger toward the racist/creedist aspects of culture, we could say the same thing for Muhammed Ali. Charm is a thing, and it tends to involve suffering useful idiots. Kareem was not one for that.