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Who is the next in hierarchy after Tatum and Brown?

durantbird wrote:Who is the next in hierarchy after Tatum and Brown?

This comes down to what one means by star. This can be a somewhat nebulous term referring to player quality/impact, fame, talent, offensive production etc so that certainly matters.


To Brown specifically ...
Brown is (among 1000 RS minute Celtics ... fwiw this narrowly cuts off Kornet whose numbers would be in play in some categories otherwise for whatever that's worth).

3rd in PER behind Porzingis and Tatum
8th in WS/48 behind Porzingis, Tatum, Horford, White, Pritchard, Hauser and Holiday
8th in BPM behind Porzingis, Tatum, White, Horford, Holiday, Hauser and Pritchard.
These are rate stats. Brown is 3rd in total RS minutes and 2nd in RS mpg.

Playoffs wise Porzingis drops a bit in a 4g sample, Hauser drops off a lot.
Brown's playoff box rises a little (in raw terms - not accounting for tougher competition, higher norms for "average" player) but after accounting for the above players team internal rank in these stats doesn't change much.

Impact side Celtics are slightly worse with him on than off, which is a trend that, at a mild level, is true on average over his Celtics career. This has been true in this playoff run too and over his playoff career (though small samples, non-balanced schedules etc).

Granting that there is value to being on the court and particularly doing so for a good team ...
the RS measures by which it would be a given that Brown is the second star (or better) would be
mpg (3rd in playoffs)
usage% (1st in playoffs)
points per 100 possession (Porzingis close)

By those (RS) measures the third star would be
White
Porzingis
Porzingis

I think it was supposed to be Holiday but then with the way KP was playing for much of the season it was him but since he's gotten injured it's really been White. I think going forward it will be him as well if he keeps being such a strong 3 pt shooter on top of being a very good defender.

Its actually an open question whether Brown is the Celtic's second best player. He tends to have the worst plus-minus out of the starting 5 for example

Special_Puppy wrote:Its actually an open question whether Brown is the Celtic's second best player. He tends to have the worst plus-minus out of the starting 5 for example

I'd agree with that. In theory he was supposed to be the clear second best player and part of their big 2(especially after the contract he got) but in terms of actual production or impact he might not be. The Celtics went as a team with Tatum+ Brown averaging 56.7ppg last year to 49.9 this year so the gap between isn't what it used to be. The truth is that Brown hasn't blossomed as a scorer the way it seemed he would 3-4 years ago when he was shooting close to 40% from 3.

Based on the entirety of season its White or KP.

The distinction doesn't really mean anything to me, especially when one is the primary ball handler at point and the other forms half of an incredibly overpowered pick and roll and is our sole genuine rim protection. Separating that importance to team is near impossible.

Jrue has had some moments in the past 2 games, but his body of work hasn't been as good or consistent this year as the other two. Voting for Jrue would be an open shut case of recency bias.

Around December/January it was a genuine question whether Jaylen was the 3rd best Celtic on the season, especially with Derrick playing out of his mind to that point. That conversation has faded away with Jaylen improving his scoring, efficiency and decision making substantively since then. This I'd put down to a symptom of having to tailor his off ball game further with the additions of KP and Jrue. He's figured it out, and I don't really think it should be in question he's the clear #2 on the team now - warts and all.

The advanced statistics on this team are as noisy as it gets when considering the 1-6 depth and how Joe has rotated both stars with a shortened bench, I think it would be naive to read too much into that without heavily discounting that with what we actually see.