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In their defensive prime, was there a bigger gap defensively between Kawhi and MJ or MJ and Kobe

Are you talking locked in during a high stakes playoff game where they are focused, or are you talking over 5 year stretch including a lot of Tuesday nights against the Wizards. Results may vary.

Kawhi

Jordan



Kobe

One_and_Done wrote:Kawhi

Jordan



Kobe

Agree with this though Kawhi benefits from being more of a defensive specialist in his defensive prime(13-20) who could devote most of his energy on that end.

Jordan>>Kawhi>>Kobe.

For career Jordan is the best of the three.

I don't really consider Kawhi better than Jordan when they had similar offensive loads.

Kawhi was significantly better defensively during his pre-offensive prime.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:Kawhi

Jordan



Kobe

Agree with this though Kawhi benefits from being more of a defensive specialist in his defensive prime(13-20) who could devote most of his energy on that end.

He mainly benefits from being bigger, longer, and much more positionally sound lol

Colbinii wrote:I don't really consider Kawhi better than Jordan when they had similar offensive loads.

Kawhi was significantly better defensively during his pre-offensive prime.

Kawhi was better on both ends.

One_and_Done wrote:

Colbinii wrote:I don't really consider Kawhi better than Jordan when they had similar offensive loads.

Kawhi was significantly better defensively during his pre-offensive prime.

Kawhi was better on both ends.

meh. Even in the absolute i think the ball-handling/playmaking advantage outweighs Kawhi's theoretical scoring advantage.

OhayoKD wrote:He mainly benefits from being bigger, longer, and much more positionally sound lol

Well I already agreed with putting him on top. I just think its worth mentioning that his best defensive years came as a def specialist and offensive role player while MJ was both an mvp & dpoy. Kawhi's last all def 1st team came a long time ago.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:He mainly benefits from being bigger, longer, and much more positionally sound lol

Well I already agreed with putting him on top. I just think its worth mentioning that his best defensive years came as a def specialist and offensive role player while MJ was both an mvp & dpoy. Kawhi's last all def 1st team came a long time ago.

A DPOY who could not lead elite defenses with elite an elite defensive cast in 88(and then saw the defense collapse to average) and could not lead an above average one without oakley in 89 in a career where his teams consistently didn't budge with him or without him over pretty much any time frame.

Not seeing much reason to think 20 Kawhi wasn't a better defender than DPOY Jordan and frankly given DPOY Jordan had around the 4th of the rim presence as his own very good man defending teammate, dubious he was even the DPOY of his own team that year, particularly with them turning average the next season when he left.

OhayoKD wrote:

Cavsfansince84 wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:He mainly benefits from being bigger, longer, and much more positionally sound lol

Well I already agreed with putting him on top. I just think its worth mentioning that his best defensive years came as a def specialist and offensive role player while MJ was both an mvp & dpoy. Kawhi's last all def 1st team came a long time ago.

A DPOY who could not lead elite defenses with elite an elite defensive cast in 88(and then saw the defense collapse to average) and could not lead an above average one without oakley in 89 in a career where his teams consistently didn't budge with him or without him over pretty much any time frame.

Not seeing much reason to think 20 Kawhi wasn't a better defender than DPOY Jordan and frankly given DPOY Jordan had around the 4th of the rim presence as his own very good man defending teammate, dubious he was even the DPOY of his own team that year, particularly with them turning average the next season when he left.

I suppose you mean Oakley as the very defending teammate? Oakley's defensive rating is less than Jordan's in 1988 at 103 to Jordan's 101. It is much more likely that Kawhi benefited greatly from having a top ten alltime defender, a big, on his team the years that happened to be his best defensive years. The Spurs were still an elite defensive team in 2018 when Kawhi played nine games and were always a very good defensive team in Duncan's career mostly. The Raptors were 5th best defensively the year before Kawhi got there and 2nd best the year after he left. Pretty compelling stats. He hasn't played much as a Clipper but PG is a great defender and they've been relatively stacked with good defenders the whole time.

Kobe didn't play with great defenders, some were good but not many.

Kawhi>Jordan>>>Kobe

I just don't think Kobe is on their level. But regardless of O-Load, Kawhi just has a much higher ceiling for me there. He legitimately was the best defensive player in the league for a short time as a 3, that is extremely impressive. Regarless of Jordan's accolades, I don't think he should ever have been in that conversation nor had the potential to be anyway. Kobe was well above his positional average but never approached the game shifting level that the other two consistently hit.

OhayoKD wrote:A DPOY who could not lead elite defenses with elite an elite defensive cast in 88(and then saw the defense collapse to average) and could not lead an above average one without oakley in 89 in a career where his teams consistently didn't budge with him or without him over pretty much any time frame.

Not seeing much reason to think 20 Kawhi wasn't a better defender than DPOY Jordan and frankly given DPOY Jordan had around the 4th of the rim presence as his own very good man defending teammate, dubious he was even the DPOY of his own team that year, particularly with them turning average the next season when he left.

My comment wasn't meant to legitimize the dpoy that MJ received that year. It was meant to highlight that he also won mvp and averaged 35gg on high efficiency on the offensive end(which I didn't mention but didn't think needed to be). On top of playing 40ppg. Kawhi otoh was getting load managed and maxed out at 33.4mpg while in SA. The way I roughly would compare these 3 on defense would be:

14-16 Kawhi
13, 17 Kawhi, 88-91 MJ
19-21 Kawhi, 92-93, 96 MJ, 00-03, 08 Kobe

migya wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Well I already agreed with putting him on top. I just think its worth mentioning that his best defensive years came as a def specialist and offensive role player while MJ was both an mvp & dpoy. Kawhi's last all def 1st team came a long time ago.

A DPOY who could not lead elite defenses with elite an elite defensive cast in 88(and then saw the defense collapse to average) and could not lead an above average one without oakley in 89 in a career where his teams consistently didn't budge with him or without him over pretty much any time frame.

Not seeing much reason to think 20 Kawhi wasn't a better defender than DPOY Jordan and frankly given DPOY Jordan had around the 4th of the rim presence as his own very good man defending teammate, dubious he was even the DPOY of his own team that year, particularly with them turning average the next season when he left.

I suppose you mean Oakley as the very defending teammate? Oakley's defensive rating is less than Jordan's in 1988 at 103 to Jordan's 101.

And yet the Bulls jumped defensively with Oakley's big minute increase in 1987(The Bulls defense was as good with and without Jordan the previous year) and became average when he left in 89. They were also below average in 1990 thanks to a bad first half of the season after which Pippen became the defensive floor-general and the rest was history(-3 defense by the 1990 playoffs, -5 vs the pistons).

It's almost like individual "defensive rating" is just a box-stat:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
One which, due to Jordan being the Bulls leading block-getter, pretends Jordan, a below average rim-protector, offered the most paint-protection in Chicago that year:


Jordan ofc never showed that level of influence statistically outside of spot minutes; the Bulls improved in 1994 when he left, got a bit worse in 1995 when he came back, got marginally better when he was there in 86, and were still as good as they were with him in 93 when he and Grant were gone in 1995.

Compare that to:

It is much more likely that Kawhi benefited greatly from having a top ten alltime defender, a big, on his team the years that happened to be his best defensive years. The Spurs were still an elite defensive team in 2018 when Kawhi played nine games and were always a very good defensive team in Duncan's career mostly.

That "elite defensive team" was still a point and a half worse defensively from where they were in 2017, and more than 3 points worse from where they were in Kawhi's DPOY season. The former which, last I checked, happened without Tim Duncan. Both marks which beat any Delta we saw from Jordan's arrivals or departures or injuries in Chicago.


The Raptors were similarly unaffected by Kawhi in his first year back from basically not playing, but the clippers proceeded to see a 4 point defensive improvement with PG and Kawhi, saw a 4-point drop without him in 2021, and a 1.1 point drop in 2023, both marks being higher than anything we saw we have for MJ in Chicago over full games.

TLDR, even high offensive load Kawhi was likely more valuable to his teams defensively than Jordan was.

He hasn't played much as a Clipper but PG is a great defender and they've been relatively stacked with good defenders the whole time.

And Jordan's teams have been "stacked with good defenders" since 1987, the difference is DPOY Jordan wasn't good enough to turn those stacked teams into elite defenses, high offensive load Kawhi was.

OhayoKD wrote:

migya wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:A DPOY who could not lead elite defenses with elite an elite defensive cast in 88(and then saw the defense collapse to average) and could not lead an above average one without oakley in 89 in a career where his teams consistently didn't budge with him or without him over pretty much any time frame.

Not seeing much reason to think 20 Kawhi wasn't a better defender than DPOY Jordan and frankly given DPOY Jordan had around the 4th of the rim presence as his own very good man defending teammate, dubious he was even the DPOY of his own team that year, particularly with them turning average the next season when he left.

I suppose you mean Oakley as the very defending teammate? Oakley's defensive rating is less than Jordan's in 1988 at 103 to Jordan's 101.

And yet the Bulls jumped defensively with Oakley's big minute increase in 1987(The Bulls defense was as good with and without Jordan the previous year) and became average when he left in 89.

I think this is a really bizarre attempt from you. The Bulls’ defense got a lot better in 1987 compared to what it was in 1986. In 1986, Jordan played 18 games and 25.1 minutes per game. In 1987, Jordan played 82 games and 40.0 minutes per game. Meanwhile, Oakley played 77 games and 23.0 minutes per game in 1986 and Oakley played 82 games and 36.3 minutes per game in 1987. Jordan not only obviously had a massive increase in his games played in 1987 that Oakley didn’t have, but Jordan’s increase in his MPG in the games he did play was bigger than Oakley’s MPG increase was between those two seasons. And yet your conclusion is to attribute the Bulls’ defensive improvement to Oakley’s minute increase? Apparently the Bulls getting better defensively when Oakley plays more minutes is important but the Bulls getting better defensively when Jordan’s minutes go up by even more is just ignored. It’s just shocking nonsense.

And, of course, the reason you’re needing to twist in the wind here is that the Bulls’ defense got massively worse in a single season in the Jordan years, and it was the season where Jordan barely played, and you feel a need to construct some sort of rationale for why that doesn’t actually indicate Jordan was quite impactful defensively. It’s a tough argument to make, so you’re just left with nonsense.

They were also below average in 1990 thanks to a bad first half of the season after which Pippen became the defensive floor-general and the rest was history(-3 defense by the 1990 playoffs, -5 vs the pistons).

I don’t know what you’re referring to with “Pippen became the defensive floor-general.” You’re likely latching onto some random quote of someone, but I don’t know what. In any event, since you mention playoff defense specifically, please note that the 1989 Bulls had a -3 rDRTG in the playoffs—which occurred before you claim “Pippen became the defensive floor general.” Even the 1988 Bulls had a -2.2 rDRTG in the playoffs. And since you also mention the Pistons specifically, the 1988 and 1989 Bulls were -4 and -3 against the Pistons.

Jordan ofc never showed that level of influence statistically outside of spot minutes; the Bulls improved in 1994 when he left, got a bit worse in 1995 when he came back, got marginally better when he was there in 86, and were still as good as they were with him in 93 when he and Grant were gone in 1995.

Amusingly, after talking about playoff rDRTG just above, you ignore playoff rDRTG here. From 1988 through 1998, easily the worst the Bulls did defensively in the playoffs was in 1994—the one year they didn’t have Jordan in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, as I’ve pointed out to you, your point about the Bulls getting “a bit worse in 1995 when [Jordan] came back” is solely based on what happened the first five games after Jordan came back—when he was playing himself back into basketball shape and having a crash course with new teammates. After those initial few games, the Bulls’ defensive rating with Jordan in 1995 was like 3 points better than it had been prior to Jordan coming back, and then they proceeded to be 1.5 points better defensively in the playoffs than they’d been in 1994, despite not having Grant anymore.

And then in 1996—when Jordan actually had a full season with the team—they were far better than they’d been during Jordan’s retirement, and that continued until Jordan retired again. And while you like to attribute that to Rodman in order to avoid attributing it to Jordan, as I’ve pointed out to you, the team actually had a better defensive rating in the 18 games Rodman missed in the 1996 season than in the games Rodman played (and overall across 1996-1998, the Bulls’ defensive rating was essentially identical in games Rodman played and games Rodman didn’t). More generally, you like to attribute the greatness of the Bulls’ dynasty-era defense to Pippen, but then you ignore that Pippen missed half a season in the 1998 season and the Bulls’ defense was better in the games Pippen missed. The Bulls had an absolutely elite defense in the second-three-peat era, and we saw them be just as elite in lots of games without Rodman and just as elite in lots of games without Pippen, but we did not see them be just as elite when they were without Jordan. There’s an obvious conclusion to be drawn here, and yet you draw the opposite one, just as you do with the 1986 stuff.

lessthanjake wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:

migya wrote:
I suppose you mean Oakley as the very defending teammate? Oakley's defensive rating is less than Jordan's in 1988 at 103 to Jordan's 101.

And yet the Bulls jumped defensively with Oakley's big minute increase in 1987(The Bulls defense was as good with and without Jordan the previous year) and became average when he left in 89.

I think this is a really bizarre attempt from you. The Bulls’ defense got a lot better in 1987 compared to what it was in 1986. In 1986, Jordan played 18 games and 25.1 minutes per game.

And in those 18 games and 25 minutes in 1986 the Bulls defense did not get better defensively, hence it makes less sense to be looking at Jordan, who we saw have minimal effect, as opposed to Oakley (or Woodrige)

And, of course, the reason you’re needing to twist in the wind here is that the Bulls’ defense got massively worse in a single season in the Jordan years, and it was the season where Jordan barely played

Yeah, because the Bulls barely got better on defense with Jordan that same season lmao. Why would we give the bulk of the credit to the dude we saw have almost no effect? Particularly when one of the alternative explanations does the most important part of defense vastly more than Jordan does?

They were also below average in 1990 thanks to a bad first half of the season after which Pippen became the defensive floor-general and the rest was history(-3 defense by the 1990 playoffs, -5 vs the pistons).

I don’t know what you’re referring to with “Pippen became the defensive floor-general.” You’re likely latching onto some random quote of someone, but I don’t know what.

Random quote of Phil Jackson buddy. And yeah, the whole "jordan was secretly impactful as the floor-general" exchange from the last thread was funny to read.

If we actually watch the games, we may also notice that Pippen starts protecting the paint at a similar frequency to Oakley, was also making more plays on the perimeter than anyone else on the Bulls, and was even more involved in full-court presses than MJ was.

But hey, if you only want to look at what is theoretically plausible, we can argue both were not very impactful, that still doesn't help Jordan against Kawhi.

In any event, since you mention playoff defense specifically, please note that the 1989 Bulls had a -3 rDRTG in the playoffs—which occurred before you claim “Pippen became the defensive floor general.” Even the 1988 Bulls had a -2.2 rDRTG in the playoffs. And since you also mention the Pistons specifically, the 1988 and 1989 Bulls were -4 and -3 against the Pistons.

The 1988 Bulls had a playoff rating of -1.3 (+1.4 x 5 = 7, -4 x 5 = -20, -20+7 = -13, -13/10 =-1.3).

The 1989 Bulls had a playoff rating of -2.3 (-23.5+1.8-17.4 = -39.1, -39.1/17 = -2.3) with their best mark coming against the injured Cavaliers.

The 1990 Bulls had a playoff rating of -3.4 (-36.4 -21.5 +2.4, -55.5/16=-3.4)

If you specifically want to look at the pistons, the 1990 Bulls were -5.2.

Either approach, they come out looking the best despite looking the worst in the first half of the season; they look the best post-ASB, they look the best in the playoffs, and the best vs the pistons, and then we know what happens after.

Jordan ofc never showed that level of influence statistically outside of spot minutes; the Bulls improved in 1994 when he left, got a bit worse in 1995 when he came back, got marginally better when he was there in 86, and were still as good as they were with him in 93 when he and Grant were gone in 1995.

Amusingly, after talking about playoff rDRTG just above, you ignore playoff rDRTG here. From 1988 through 1998, easily the worst the Bulls did defensively in the playoffs was in 1994—the one year they didn’t have Jordan in the playoffs.

It was also easily the best they did offensively, and of course a straight improvement, overall from the regular season. But if you wish to argue Jordan was secretly a defensive superstar and an offensive liability, be my guest.

Meanwhile, as I’ve pointed out to you, your point about the Bulls getting “a bit worse in 1995 when [Jordan] came back” is solely based on what happened the first five games after Jordan came back—when he was playing himself back into basketball shape and having a crash course with new teammates. After those initial few games, the Bulls’ defensive rating with Jordan in 1995 was like 3 points better than it had been prior to Jordan coming back

And yet they were only -1.8 points better in 1996 with Rodman in tow. Maybe that definitely not arbitrary 11-game stretch you chose was Jordan's true defensive apex?

But sure, whatever, we can use that -3 bit...still gets topped by Clippers Kawhi(-4), and I didn't even do the "x games after layoff" adjustment!

And then in 1996—when Jordan actually had a full season with the team—they were even better.

They were 1.8 points better. Even if I attributed that all to a player who was already on the roster, that would still not get Jordan on par with Kawhi's best direct WOWY from LA, never mind if I decided to give him all the credit for the Clippers defensive turn around in 2020, and his injuries, all the blame for them becoming a negative defense in 2024.

IOW...

There’s an obvious conclusion to be drawn here

Jordan is not a Kawhi-level defender, even if you look at Kawhi "when he had a high offensive load".

Using the worst signals for Jordan's teammates is fine and good but does not actually translate to Jordan himself looking great defensively. Even if you want to say Pippen and Rodman and Grant weren't significantly impactful, Jordan is in the same boat. Kawhi is not.

OhayoKD wrote:

lessthanjake wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:And yet the Bulls jumped defensively with Oakley's big minute increase in 1987(The Bulls defense was as good with and without Jordan the previous year) and became average when he left in 89.

I think this is a really bizarre attempt from you. The Bulls’ defense got a lot better in 1987 compared to what it was in 1986. In 1986, Jordan played 18 games and 25.1 minutes per game.

And in those 18 games and 25 minutes in 1986 the Bulls defense did not get better defensively, hence it makes less sense to be looking at Jordan, who we saw have minimal effect, as opposed to Oakley (or Woodrige)

And, of course, the reason you’re needing to twist in the wind here is that the Bulls’ defense got massively worse in a single season in the Jordan years, and it was the season where Jordan barely played

Yeah, because the Bulls barely got better on defense with Jordan that same season lmao. Why would we give the bulk of the credit to the dude we saw have almost no effect? Particularly when one of the alternative explanations does the most important part of defense vastly more than Jordan does?

Lol. First of all, you’re ignoring the fact that you posited that Oakley’s “big minute increase” explains why the Bulls did much better defensively in 1987 compared to 1986, but yet you completely ignore the fact that in the games Jordan played he had an even bigger minute increase in 1987 compared to 1986. Maybe the reason the Bulls did a lot better defensively in 1987 than they did in the 1986 games Jordan played is because Jordan was playing a lot more minutes in 1987! That reasoning apparently totally makes sense to you if it allows you to downplay Jordan, but you completely ignore it when it applies even more the other way.

Second of all, your claim that the Bulls “barely got better on defense with Jordan that same season” is silly when we dig into it. The assertion is correct at a glance, but it is ignoring that Jordan played vastly differing numbers of minutes in those games, and had a lot of games where he barely played. What happened defensively when Jordan actually played a good number of minutes? Well, in games Jordan played at least 30 minutes, the Bulls’ DRTG was 2 points better than it was in the regular season overall. In games Jordan played at least 35 minutes, the Bulls’ DRTG was 5 points better than it was in the regular season overall. So yeah, what we see here is that in the games where Jordan actually played a remotely normal number of minutes, the Bulls were quite a bit better defensively that year. And this is unsurprising given that the Bulls had a 5.9 DRTG improvement in 1987 with Jordan playing every game and averaging 40 minutes a game. The flip side of this is that your argument about 1986 is essentially entirely based on looking at what the Bulls did defensively in games where Jordan didn’t actually play much (note: he averaged less than 20 minutes per game in the rest of the games). Basing an argument about Jordan’s defense on what happened in games he didn’t play much in is pretty obviously a weak point! And it’s especially bizarre to base an argument on that when it is just completely contrary to what happened the next year when Jordan was actually back and playing normal minutes. You’re just relying on obviously bad data because you don’t like what the better data says.

In any event, since you mention playoff defense specifically, please note that the 1989 Bulls had a -3 rDRTG in the playoffs—which occurred before you claim “Pippen became the defensive floor general.” Even the 1988 Bulls had a -2.2 rDRTG in the playoffs. And since you also mention the Pistons specifically, the 1988 and 1989 Bulls were -4 and -3 against the Pistons.

The 1988 Bulls had a playoff rating of -1.3 (+1.4 x 5 = 7, -4 x 5 = -20, -20+7 = -13, -13/10 =-1.3).

The 1989 Bulls had a playoff rating of -2.3 (-23.5+1.8-17.4 = -39.1, -39.1/17 = -2.3) with their best mark coming against the injured Cavaliers.

The 1990 Bulls had a playoff rating of -3.4 (-36.4 -21.5 +2.4, -55.5/16=-3.4)

If you specifically want to look at the pistons, the 1990 Bulls were -5.2.

Either approach, they come out looking the best despite looking the worst in the first half of the season; they look the best post-ASB, they look the best in the playoffs, and the best vs the pistons, and then we know what happens after.

You are not measuring in a methodologically valid way, but there’s no point in even debating that because we have playoff rDRTG from Thinking Basketball. The playoff rDRTG for the 1988 Bulls was -2.2. The playoff rDRTG for the 1989 Bulls was -3.0, and the playoff rDRTG for the 1990 Bulls was -4.2. And then in 1991 it went to -5.1. The Bulls were unsurprisingly improving defensively in those years as the team around Jordan improved (which, of course, includes guys like Pippen and Grant maturing, but also the rest of the team as well). But they were already a good playoff defense in the late 1980s.

Jordan ofc never showed that level of influence statistically outside of spot minutes; the Bulls improved in 1994 when he left, got a bit worse in 1995 when he came back, got marginally better when he was there in 86, and were still as good as they were with him in 93 when he and Grant were gone in 1995.

Amusingly, after talking about playoff rDRTG just above, you ignore playoff rDRTG here. From 1988 through 1998, easily the worst the Bulls did defensively in the playoffs was in 1994—the one year they didn’t have Jordan in the playoffs.

It was also easily the best they did offensively, and of course a straight improvement, overall from the regular season. But if you wish to argue Jordan was secretly a defensive superstar and an offensive liability, be my guest.

It is objectively incorrect that it was “easily the best they did offensively” in the playoffs. The Bulls rORTG in the 1994 playoffs was worse than it had just been in 1993 and 1991, as we can clearly see in Thinking Basketball’s data.

But also, this is a thread about defense, not offense, so how is this relevant? If we were actually talking about offense, there’d be a boatload of other information telling us that Jordan’s offense was extremely elite—if you want to throw out the 1994 playoff ORTG to try to refute that, then it’s fine for you to try to swim up a waterfall on that one, but it’s irrelevant to this thread. As it relates to Jordan’s defense, the fact is that the Bulls’ playoff rDRTG was easily worse in 1994 than it was in any year with Jordan from 1988 onwards. In facetiously bringing up playoff rORTG, is your argument just that DRTG and ORTG in small samples is noisy and shouldn’t be taken very seriously because it can lead to weird results and so we shouldn’t put much value on single-playoff DRTGs or ORTGs? That’d potentially be a valid position to take. But the problem is that your broader argument relies heavily on drawing dim conclusions about Jordan’s defense based on DRTG’s in small RS samples in 1986 and 1995. So you seem to be taking the view that we should index heavily on small samples when you think they’re bad for Jordan but also that it’d be absurd to draw any conclusion from small samples that look good for Jordan. Just a totally absurd and inconsistent approach. And it’s even more absurd when we realize that the results of the small samples you’re indexing heavily on are essentially entirely driven by high DRTGs in games that obviously aren’t appropriate to draw any broad conclusion based on—i.e. DRTG in games where Jordan played nowhere close to normal minutes, and DRTG in Jordan’s first few games back from retirement. The bottom line is that there’s tons of data that suggests Jordan was a massively impactful defender, and you have tried to construct an intellectual safe place for yourself where you can convince yourself through specious reasoning that no positive conclusion about Jordan’s defense should be drawn from any of that data. You might have convinced yourself—it wouldn’t take much to do that, because you seem to be entirely motivated by getting to a preferred conclusion—but it isn’t going to be convincing to anyone else.

Meanwhile, as I’ve pointed out to you, your point about the Bulls getting “a bit worse in 1995 when [Jordan] came back” is solely based on what happened the first five games after Jordan came back—when he was playing himself back into basketball shape and having a crash course with new teammates. After those initial few games, the Bulls’ defensive rating with Jordan in 1995 was like 3 points better than it had been prior to Jordan coming back

And yet they were only -1.8 points better in 1996 with Rodman in tow. Maybe that definitely not arbitrary 11-game stretch you chose was Jordan's true defensive apex?

But sure, whatever, we can use that -3 bit...still gets topped by Clippers Kawhi(-4), and I didn't even do the "x games after layoff" adjustment!

The 1996 Bulls may have only been -1.8 points better defensively in the 1996 regular season, but we’re talking about a team that was also newly amazing offensively, so they were just destroying teams (resulting in large leads where we know teams let up). There’s diminishing marginal returns on how great a DRTG a team can put up in those circumstances when the team is putting up historically high ret ratings. So this was an impressive defensive improvement, in context. You suggest the defensive improvement was driven by Rodman, but we know the Bulls did *better* defensively in the 18 games Rodman missed that season. Meanwhile, in the playoffs, the diminishing marginal returns on relative ratings naturally kicks in at a higher point (because the opposing teams have above-average MOVs, so you can get a higher relative rating before the point where you’re just blowing them out). And what do we see there? Well, the Bulls’ playoff rDRTG in 1996 was -8.1 better than it had been in 1994, when they had Horace Grant. And, that wasn’t a one-off thing, the Bulls’ playoff rDRTG in 1997 and 1998 were also way better than it had been in 1994. Overall, the second-three-peat Bulls had a -8.3 rDRTG in the playoffs, which is in a completely different stratosphere from anything they did defensively with Jordan out (they had a -1.3 DRTG in the 1994 playoffs, and -3.6 and -4 in the 1994 and 1995 regular seasons). The Bulls were a lot better defensively in the second-three-peat years than they’d been during Jordan’s retirement. And, again, we have every reason to believe that this is driven by Jordan, rather than Pippen or Rodman, since we actually have a lot of games in those years that Pippen and Rodman missed and we see that the Bulls’ DRTG was essentially the same or even better when they missed games.

On balance, we actually see massive defensive signals from Jordan. The Bulls were massively worse defensively in the 1986 season that Jordan barely played in (and were massively better in that season in the few games he played normal minutes in). The Bulls were massively worse defensively in Jordan’s 1994 & 1995 retirement compared to what they were after that—with that being especially true in the playoffs, where the 1996-1998 Bulls were arguably the greatest defense in history (3rd best three-year playoff rDRTG in NBA history, behind only two teams that went out in the first round one of the years). And that’s with a team that had a defensive rating that was similar or better in those years in the large number of games Pippen and Rodman each missed. Even in 1995 itself, soon after Jordan got back they started putting up notably better defensive ratings, and then proceeded to do better defensively in the playoffs than they’d done in 1994 despite not having Grant. And, more generally, they were consistently a far better playoff defense with Jordan than they were in the one playoff Jordan missed, and were typically a substantially better defense in the playoffs with Jordan than they were even in the regular season in Jordan’s retirement. And that’s not even getting to the fact that the defense was massively worse in 1999 compared to 1998—and while Pippen and Rodman also left that year, the Bulls had held up perfectly fine defensively without them in the prior years. All those massively good signals for Jordan are merely weighed against the fact that the Bulls’ regular season defense didn’t get worse from 1992 and 1993 to 1994 and 1995. Beyond the fact that the supporting cast had been substantially improved defensively, we also know that WOWY data is really noisy (as DraymondGold has often very rigorously pointed out to you), so it’s not a surprise at all for there to be a signal that looks somewhat contrary to the rest.

Overall, Jordan looks like a massively impactful defender, and indeed looks like perhaps the best ceiling-raising perimeter defender ever—leading one of the greatest defenses ever, while making that all-time defense essentially impervious to the absences of other key defensive players (while the team was not an all-time defense without Jordan). Of course, in their heyday, the Bulls were definitely still a good defense without Jordan. But it’s Jordan that was the one that was clearly the necessary element to make them an all-time great defense. And it was also clearly Jordan that was the necessary element to stop his team from completely collapsing defensively in his early years—with them being one of the worst defenses in history the year Jordan barely played, and being fine defensively in the surrounding years where Jordan was healthy. These are massive signals, and any unbiased person would recognize that they suggest Jordan was an immense defender.

And then in 1996—when Jordan actually had a full season with the team—they were even better.

They were 1.8 points better. Even if I attributed that all to a player who was already on the roster, that would still not get Jordan on par with Kawhi's best direct WOWY from LA, never mind if I decided to give him all the credit for the Clippers defensive turn around in 2020, and his injuries, all the blame for them becoming a negative defense in 2024.

IOW...

There’s an obvious conclusion to be drawn here

Jordan is not a Kawhi-level defender, even if you look at Kawhi "when he had a high offensive load".

Using the worst signals for Jordan's teammates is fine and good but does not actually translate to Jordan himself looking great defensively. Even if you want to say Pippen and Rodman and Grant weren't significantly impactful, Jordan is in the same boat. Kawhi is not.

Regarding “high-offensive load” Kawhi, you seem to be ignoring a ton of data points on “high-offensive load” Kawhi that really don’t look good at all defensively. Some examples:

- The Spurs only had a -1.5 worse rDRTG in 2018 when Kawhi missed essentially the entire season. But even that is super misleading really, because the Spurs actually did far better defensively in 2017 when Kawhi was on the bench. The Spurs rDRTG in Kawhi’s minutes in 2017 was -2.1, and the Spurs rDRTG in 2018 in the 73 games Kawhi didn’t play was -3.2. So, the Spurs defense actually did less good with “high-offensive load” Kawhi on the court in 2017 than they did without him in 2018!
- This continued in Toronto. In 2019, Kawhi missed 22 games. In those 22 games, the Raptors had a -5.13 better defensive rating than they did in the games Kawhi played. Moreover, their -1.58 relative defensive rating in the games Kawhi played that season was worse than their relative defensive rating in the surrounding seasons without Kawhi—which was -2.7 in 2018 and -5.6 in 2020.
- On the Clippers, Kawhi missed an entire season in 2022. In total in the games Kawhi played in the surrounding seasons (i.e. 2021 and 2023), the Clippers had a 112.35 defensive rating. Meanwhile, they had a 110.62 defensive rating without Kawhi in 2022. So, again, the Clippers defense was better without Kawhi.
- Overall, in Kawhi’s entire time with the Clippers, their defensive rating in games Kawhi has played (229 total games) has been 112.31. In the 161 games Kawhi has missed in that timeframe, the Clippers’ defensive rating has been 112.25. Again, the defensive rating in games without Kawhi was better than in the games with Kawhi.

So yeah, the data on “high-offensive load” Kawhi looks not good at all defensively. I’m not sure why you’d even bring it up. There’s a decent signal buried in there when he first joined the Clippers (i.e. 2019 compared to 2020), but “high-offensive load” Kawhi changed teams so much and missed so many games that we have a load of signals and the overall balance of them is, if anything, clearly suggestive of negative defensive impact from Kawhi.

And then we get to RAPM data. Unlike the above-described WOWY-like data, RAPM at least still has “high-offensive load” Kawhi as a positive defensively. But it’s not by a lot. And, tellingly, Kawhi’s career DRAPM (i.e. even including his peak defensive years where he was not shouldering a high offensive load) is worse than Jordan’s career DRAPM, even though Jordan’s career DRAPM only includes his last two years in Chicago and his Wizards years.

I think it’s fine to think that Kawhi is a better defender than Jordan. Kawhi is one of the greatest perimeter defenders ever, so it’s a totally defensible view to take. But on balance, if we’re comparing to “high offensive load” Kawhi, it’s pretty clearly an argument that has to be made in spite of the data, not because of it.

Kawhi obviously first, but not on Lebron's level. MJ and Kobe around the same.

Aleco wrote:This thread is a mess, full of misinformation. The 86 jordan games he played were full of teams with inept offenses so we're the 95 bulls games

This is not a consequential point as it relates to arguments in this thread. I’ve made two points in this thread about the games Jordan played in 1986 and 1995:

1. In the games in 1986 that Jordan actually played even close to normal minutes in, the Bulls’ defense with Jordan was a lot better than it was the rest of the season.

2. After his first few games coming back from retirement in 1995, the Bulls defense was notably better than it had been without Jordan, and was in line with how good it later was in the second-three-peat years.

You suggest here that that is just a mirage resulting from playing low quality opposing offenses in those games. That’s not correct. Let’s take these two points one by one and adjust for opponent offensive quality:

As to 1986, the Bulls’ relative DRTG (adjusting relative to the specific opponents’ offense) in the games Jordan played at least 30 minutes in was +2.48. The Bulls’ rDRTG in the games Jordan played 35+ minutes in was +1.68. That is compared to a +5.2 rDRTG the Bulls had for the season as a whole. So yeah, even adjusting for specific opponents’ offense, the 1986 Bulls defense was a lot better in the few games where Jordan actually played even remotely normal minutes. Which is unsurprising given that the Bulls defense was also a lot better in the surrounding seasons, in which Jordan consistently played.

As to 1995, the Bulls’ relative DRTG (again, adjusting relative to the specific opponents’ offense) after Jordan’s first five games back from retirement was -5.24. That is super good (albeit a little less good than the super good raw DRTG might suggest), and obviously better than their overall rDRTG that season or in 1994. It’s also very consistent with the -5.1 rDRTG that they averaged in the second-three-peat years (see Thinking Basketball data for that number), as well as the -5.8 rDRTG they’d put up in the 1996 season specifically.