[Thinking Basketball] #277: The best iso scorers of the Pace & Space Era

[NBA4Lyfe]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/69TSwMrtT2ahB2HK66cFtd

Honorable mentions: LeBron James, Damian Lillard

10) Kyrie Irving

9) Carmelo Anthony

8) DeMar DeRozan

7) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander*

6) Kevin Durant

5) James Harden*

4) Luka Doncic

3) Nikola Jokic*

2) Joel Embiid

Kawhi Leonard

*At the end of the podcast, after talking about it more with Cody, Ben says that maybe Harden and Shai should be a bit higher in the ranking, possibly 3rd and 4th respectively, and Jokic a bit lower, possibly 7th.



Do you agree with Luka/Kawhi/Jokic/Embiid being a better iso player than james harden historically?


I tried listening to Bens reasoning for why he had Harden so low, and his thinking was that Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking. Funny because Luka does the same on worse effiencey. Im trying to follow and support Ben but somehow his anti-harden agenda interferes with his insane bb iq. I remember when Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade because he didnt think Harden had hof portability smh

[NBA4Lyfe]

This was a "washed" harden this szn in iso.. am i missing something that ben is seeing that im not

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[rk2023]

Unrelated to the thread, but the OP here is a Harden Homer who got banned from the GB for wishing fatal injury upon Luka and Maxi Kleber (amongst other posts) right after the Clippers lost to Dallas R1. Just putting it out there

[DraymondGold]

I tried listening to Bens reasoning for why he had Harden so low, and his thinking was that Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking. Funny because Luka does the same on worse effiencey. Im trying to follow and support Ben but somehow his anti-harden agenda interferes with his insane bb iq. I remember when Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade because he didnt think Harden had hof portability smh

Hey NBA4Lyfe, 2 things to clarify just so others don't misinterpret what Ben was saying.

(1) Just to be clear about what Ben means by "Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking":
-he was saying doing isolation against a mismatch will inflate your iso numbers and appearance on film and your success in isolation compared to someone who doesn't mismatch as much. Ben wanted to rank the best player at isolation specifically, and treat something like mismatch hunting as a different skill than isolation. --> this is exactly the kind of context that the numbers you bring up in post #2 completely miss.
-For example: Harden hunts mismatches more than say Kawhi. So if you just flat out compare their isolation volume, efficiency, and film, that context-less analysis will boost how good Harden looks at iso compared to Kawhi, if you don't adjust for the defense faced. Ben was saying a true analysis of iso ability alone would adjust for defense faced, and put some emphasis on iso against good defenses.
-That also connects with his resilience concerns with Harden's isolation ability (at least when compared to the other very best iso specialists of this era). If your iso style focuses on hunting mismatches, and if there's fewer mismatches to hunt as you face better defenses in a 4-round playoff run, then this raises concerns for how well your isolation stacks up against better defenses / defenders.

(2) When "Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade", he was talking in *career value* while being in the middle of James Harden's career. Ben has Harden very clearly above peak Reggie Miller, as he has said in the podcast you're quoting, and as his CORP valuations from his website prove.
He was saying he would take 18 years of Reggie Miller over 13 years of James Harden (ever so slightly, literally ranked just a single spot over).
Given how little of an advantage Miller had over Harden several years ago for career, it's basically a given that Ben now has Harden over Miller for career by now, and that he was on pace to clearly surpass Miller for career even at the time of the podcast you're quoting.

(3) Uncertainties.
And one final point: although you post the semi-final ranking, these don't reflect the uncertainties, and Ben said Harden's high-end evaluation could give him an argument for 1st, and like you say even changed his rankings at the end and shifted Harden higher.

...

To be clear, I was with Cody the whole time (and with Ben when he changed his rankings at the end). I definitely have Harden higher than 5th. His isolation is scary good!

And me personally, I'm not so sure mismatch hunting can be totally separated from isolation skills. Maybe in an ideal world, it's fun to just look at the resilience and value of someone's scoring bag, but if mismatch hunting is a key aspect of how you get into your isolation, I have a hard time entirely keeping that context separate. It's hard to try to evaluate how good someone is at one skill, without the context of all their other skills. As Ben said in this podcast!

But I do think it's important to be clear about what Ben was saying so as not to mislead people.

[Homer38]

This was a "washed" harden this szn in iso.. am i missing something that ben is seeing that im not

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[Throwawaytheone]

.

[NBA4Lyfe]

I tried listening to Bens reasoning for why he had Harden so low, and his thinking was that Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking. Funny because Luka does the same on worse effiencey. Im trying to follow and support Ben but somehow his anti-harden agenda interferes with his insane bb iq. I remember when Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade because he didnt think Harden had hof portability smh

Hey NBA4Lyfe, 2 things to clarify just so others don't misinterpret what Ben was saying.


(1) Just to be clear about what Ben means by "Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking":
-he was saying doing isolation against a mismatch will inflate your iso numbers and appearance on film and your success in isolation compared to someone who doesn't mismatch as much. Ben wanted to rank the best player at isolation specifically, and treat something like mismatch hunting as a different skill than isolation. --> this is exactly the kind of context that the numbers you bring up in post #2 completely miss.
-For example: Harden hunts mismatches more than say Kawhi. So if you just flat out compare their isolation volume, efficiency, and film, that context-less analysis will boost how good Harden looks at iso compared to Kawhi, if you don't adjust for the defense faced. Ben was saying a true analysis of iso ability alone would adjust for defense faced, and put some emphasis on iso against good defenses.
-That also connects with his resilience concerns with Harden's isolation ability (at least when compared to the other very best iso specialists of this era). If your iso style focuses on hunting mismatches, and if there's fewer mismatches to hunt as you face better defenses in a 4-round playoff run, then this raises concerns for how well your isolation stacks up against better defenses / defenders.

(2) When "Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade", he was talking in *career value* while being in the middle of James Harden's career. Ben has Harden very clearly above peak Reggie Miller, as he has said in the podcast you're quoting, and as his CORP valuations from his website prove.
He was saying he would take 18 years of Reggie Miller over 13 years of James Harden (ever so slightly, literally ranked just a single spot over).
Given how little of an advantage Miller had over Harden several years ago for career, it's basically a given that Ben now has Harden over Miller for career by now, and that he was on pace to clearly surpass Miller for career even at the time of the podcast you're quoting.

(3) Uncertainties.
And one final point: although you post the semi-final ranking, these don't reflect the uncertainties, and Ben said Harden's high-end evaluation could give him an argument for 1st, and like you say even changed his rankings at the end and shifted Harden higher.

...

To be clear, I was with Cody the whole time (and with Ben when he changed his rankings at the end). I definitely have Harden higher than 5th. His isolation is scary good!

And me personally, I'm not so sure mismatch hunting can be totally separated from isolation skills. Maybe in an ideal world, it's fun to just look at the resilience and value of someone's scoring bag, but if mismatch hunting is a key aspect of how you get into your isolation, I have a hard time entirely keeping that context separate. It's hard to try to evaluate how good someone is at one skill, without the context of all their other skills. As Ben said in this podcast!

But I do think it's important to be clear about what Ben was saying so as not to mislead people.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Its just more copium from ben. hes been wrong about harden for years. This is just the new angle he is taking

All the numbers dealing with iso are avaliable online and i find it funny how Ben just loves the numbers when it can prove his biased argument. But as soon as it comes to harden its all about the "eye test" lol. The funny part about all of this is that curry just had his worst season in close to 10 years and ben still had curry as a top 10 player from this past szn.

I watched harden in year 15 have top 15-20 impact for the clippers until he had his injury after the all-=star break. Harden torches anyone in iso, againist the mavs he torched Luka, Derrick Jones Jr, Pj Washington anbd Maxi Kleiber all in iso in the 4th quarter of game 4. If this was houston harden, luka and kyrie would have been sent home in the 1st round. The mavs have nobody that can check harden even at his current state

So what is ben talking about harden hunting mismtaches, are player like bam adebayo, jimmy butler, and gobert not great defensive players

ben taylor is a bias hack who rushes into conclusions when it comes to harden and is always proven wrong. Ben made a video about how the clippers since acquring harden was on pace to win less than 40 games after starting 0-6 lol

Truth is luka has never been a better iso player than james harden in his career

[NBA4Lyfe]

This was a "washed" harden this szn in iso.. am i missing something that ben is seeing that im not

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[Homer38]

This was a "washed" harden this szn in iso.. am i missing something that ben is seeing that im not

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Harden is capable of having some big scoring game in the playoffs but his problem often follows with an awful game, the game after...Being consistent is very important

[NBA4Lyfe]

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Harden is capable of having some big scoring game in the playoffs but his problem often follows with an awful game, the game after...Being consistent is very important

everybody has bad games in the playoffs.. not every star player can get the media to kiss their ass and say "they are playing through injury" when they play like crap. Look at how the media protects steph, luka and embiid when they play like crap in the playoffs.. OH ITS MY KNEE,OH ITS MY BACK, OH ITS MY SHOULDER.. Harden at least get critisized when he plays bad, but never gets praise when he plays well

[Homer38]

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Harden is capable of having some big scoring game in the playoffs but his problem often follows with an awful game, the game after...Being consistent is very important

everybody has bad games in the playoffs.. not every star player can get the media to kiss their ass and say "they are playing through injury" when they play like crap. Look at how the media protects steph, luka and embiid when they play like crap in the playoffs.. OH ITS MY KNEE,OH ITS MY BACK, OH ITS MY SHOULDER.. Harden at least get critisized when he plays bad, but never gets praise when he plays well

Big difference between bad game and game of only 2 FG make on under 20%...Luka just make the finals too

[NBA4Lyfe]

Harden is capable of having some big scoring game in the playoffs but his problem often follows with an awful game, the game after...Being consistent is very important

everybody has bad games in the playoffs.. not every star player can get the media to kiss their ass and say "they are playing through injury" when they play like crap. Look at how the media protects steph, luka and embiid when they play like crap in the playoffs.. OH ITS MY KNEE,OH ITS MY BACK, OH ITS MY SHOULDER.. Harden at least get critisized when he plays bad, but never gets praise when he plays well

Big difference between bad game and game of only 2 FG make on under 20%...Luka just make the finals too

Luka made the finals, good for him I guess

Still hasn’t peaked higher than prime harden

[falcolombardi]

Would any coach actually prefer to have carmelo isolating that lebron being single marked?

[Heej]

I'm sorry but Ben at first blush putting Jokic over Harden as an iso player says enough about what people on this gave had gripes with in regards to his analysis. A lot of his inherent biases for specific archetypes/playstyles play out in subtle ways demonstrating some cognitive dissonance within his process.

Is it a big deal? Not really because his content is still among the best in the business in the YouTube space, but his process doesn't appear to be quite as mechanical and systematic compared to professional grade consultants like the BBallIndex guys. Still makes banger educational videos though

[homecourtloss]

I tried listening to Bens reasoning for why he had Harden so low, and his thinking was that Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking. Funny because Luka does the same on worse effiencey. Im trying to follow and support Ben but somehow his anti-harden agenda interferes with his insane bb iq. I remember when Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade because he didnt think Harden had hof portability smh

Hey NBA4Lyfe, 2 things to clarify just so others don't misinterpret what Ben was saying.

(1) Just to be clear about what Ben means by "Harden hunts mismatches on the perimeter way too much for his liking":
-he was saying doing isolation against a mismatch will inflate your iso numbers and appearance on film and your success in isolation compared to someone who doesn't mismatch as much. Ben wanted to rank the best player at isolation specifically, and treat something like mismatch hunting as a different skill than isolation. --> this is exactly the kind of context that the numbers you bring up in post #2 completely miss.
-For example: Harden hunts mismatches more than say Kawhi. So if you just flat out compare their isolation volume, efficiency, and film, that context-less analysis will boost how good Harden looks at iso compared to Kawhi, if you don't adjust for the defense faced. Ben was saying a true analysis of iso ability alone would adjust for defense faced, and put some emphasis on iso against good defenses.
-That also connects with his resilience concerns with Harden's isolation ability (at least when compared to the other very best iso specialists of this era). If your iso style focuses on hunting mismatches, and if there's fewer mismatches to hunt as you face better defenses in a 4-round playoff run, then this raises concerns for how well your isolation stacks up against better defenses / defenders.

(2) When "Ben said that Harden isnt better than Reggie Miller or Wade", he was talking in *career value* while being in the middle of James Harden's career. Ben has Harden very clearly above peak Reggie Miller, as he has said in the podcast you're quoting, and as his CORP valuations from his website prove.
He was saying he would take 18 years of Reggie Miller over 13 years of James Harden (ever so slightly, literally ranked just a single spot over).
Given how little of an advantage Miller had over Harden several years ago for career, it's basically a given that Ben now has Harden over Miller for career by now, and that he was on pace to clearly surpass Miller for career even at the time of the podcast you're quoting.

(3) Uncertainties.
And one final point: although you post the semi-final ranking, these don't reflect the uncertainties, and Ben said Harden's high-end evaluation could give him an argument for 1st, and like you say even changed his rankings at the end and shifted Harden higher.

...

To be clear, I was with Cody the whole time (and with Ben when he changed his rankings at the end). I definitely have Harden higher than 5th. His isolation is scary good!

And me personally, I'm not so sure mismatch hunting can be totally separated from isolation skills. Maybe in an ideal world, it's fun to just look at the resilience and value of someone's scoring bag, but if mismatch hunting is a key aspect of how you get into your isolation, I have a hard time entirely keeping that context separate. It's hard to try to evaluate how good someone is at one skill, without the context of all their other skills. As Ben said in this podcast!

But I do think it's important to be clear about what Ben was saying so as not to mislead people.

I agree with what you say with regards to the isolating mismatch hunting to find the true value of a player’s ISO abilities, but to me, only highly capable ball-handlers who process the game quickly can effectively mismatch hunt. Not everyone can do it effectively and quickly enough—if they could they would.

Harden’s playoff ISO efficacy doesn’t seem to drop much except for in two years in which injury concerns could be mitigating factors. Now I know PPP isn’t actual scoring, but part of this absurd PPP were direct points from Harden on an absurd number of fg attempts.

Harden’s ISO PPP

2024: 88th, 83rd (4th most ISOs)
2023: 84th, 33rd (2nd most ISOs per game, .7 behind)
2022: 85th, 39th (essentially tied for most ISOs per game)
2021: 88th, 97th (3rd most ISOs, .5 behind Luka and 3 behind Tatum)
2020: 92nd, 74th (10 ISO possessions per game, next highest was 8)
2019: 93rd, 76th (15 ISO possessions per game, next highest was 6)
2018: 96th, 71st (13 ISO possessions per game, next highest was 10)
2017: 76th, 69th
2016: 74th, 97th

As far as his overall ranking is concerned, I also have to factor in the 2018 regular season in which he had 4 more ISOs per game than the next highest player and produced 1.22 points per possession. This is absurd. To put this in perspective, Curry, the greater shooter ever, produced 1.28 PPP on SPOT-UP possessions, the play type that yields the highest points per possession. Harden followed 2018 up with 16 ISOs per game in 2019, 10 more than anyone and still produced 1.10 PPP. Having the greatest ISO seasons ever count heavily in my book.

Kawhi is a fine ISO scorer and perhaps better than harden in shotmsking out of ISO but the volume difference is crazy.

[ShotCreator]

Without looking at stats, my feeling on it:

1. Harden
2. Kawhi
3. Luka
4. Shai
5. Jokic
6. KD
7. LeBron
8. Kyrie
9. CP3
10. Carmelo

Kawhi has the simplest approach of the top 5 guys, but is the most physically dominant of all those guys but still very skilled even in his methodical approach.

Harden's first step and straight away step back 3 combo is the most lethal and highest on pressure applied to a defense when enacted. To say nothing of how he was defended by the time 2019 came around, and his volume. Easy #1.

Jokic is too physically dominant compared to KD IMO. I think KD peaked higher in this category in 2014 but he wasn't as complete. Jokic is a done deal once he gets decent position in the post. KD was never a great post-up guy. And could fall into forced jumpers like against Tony Allen. Even at peak.

Luka might have the most counters to a defender here. Shai and Harden level dribble counter game, and damn close to Jokic in the post. However I don't like Luka's shot selection and approach. Way too manty bad 3's. It hurts his effectiveness. Otherwise he'd top Kawhi for me.

Shai's dribble just doesn't die. And he has a great counter game with his pull-up jumper and really crafty at getting to the line. Super low TOV rate for all his dribbling. He's amazing.

LeBron's got really low lows compared to most here (2015), but some pretty amazing highs like 2014, 2017 and 2018. I think it's a fair spot for him in the middle. I think being higher on him (above KD and Jokic) is more justified than lower.

Kyrie is just a shiftier, bigger, better finishing version of Clippers CP3 in space. However I think CP3's simple approach is a little easy to underestimate because he really is looking to pass much more than Kyrie is. Kyrie is stronger at the rim and has a little more range but I really believe they scale up and are able to create the same amount of shots. Kyrie is like I said, just a bit more efficient.

Carmelo can create more shots than CP3 but it's not necessarily a good thing. Just a clearly worse shot maker all over the floor.

[falcolombardi]

I'm sorry but Ben at first blush putting Jokic over Harden as an iso player says enough about what people on this gave had gripes with in regards to his analysis. A lot of his inherent biases for specific archetypes/playstyles play out in subtle ways demonstrating some cognitive dissonance within his process.

Is it a big deal? Not really because his content is still among the best in the business in the YouTube space, but his process doesn't appear to be quite as mechanical and systematic compared to professional grade consultants like the BBallIndex guys. Still makes banger educational videos though

Pretty much summed up my thoughts

No one is free of biases including us all here, but ben aesthetic/basketball philosophy biases are incredibly evident down to the way he presents player comparisions in sometimes very one-sided ways

[Cavsfansince84]

Tbh, for something like this I'd be way more comfortable if someone just used guys who are primarily creators rather than finishers, averaged their top 7-8 best ts add seasons then added in playoff performance to some degree and called it a day.

[GSP]

Im gonna listen later today but im guessing playoff has no weight here? Just regular season peak? B/c no way in hell Demar would be anywhere if playoff was weighted or Embiid anywhere near the top if top 10 at all

[homecourtloss]

I'm sorry but Ben at first blush putting Jokic over Harden as an iso player says enough about what people on this gave had gripes with in regards to his analysis. A lot of his inherent biases for specific archetypes/playstyles play out in subtle ways demonstrating some cognitive dissonance within his process.

Is it a big deal? Not really because his content is still among the best in the business in the YouTube space, but his process doesn't appear to be quite as mechanical and systematic compared to professional grade consultants like the BBallIndex guys. Still makes banger educational videos though

Jokic takes like 1 shot per game in ISO situations unless Ben is talking about the post up situations as “ISO scoring situations” in which Jokic did have an incredible scoring season but still the volume isn’t there for Ben to put him on this list.