RealGM

General Project Discussion Thread

Discussion and Results from the 2010 Project

In this thread we'll discuss and vote on the top 5 players and the top 3 offensive and defensive players of 1959-60.

Player of the Year (POY)(5) — most accomplished overall player of that season
Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)(3) — most accomplished offensive player of that season
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)(3) — most accomplished defensive player of that season

Voting will close sometime after 17:30 PM EST on Tuesday, August 13th. I have no issue keeping it open so long as discussion is strong, but please try to vote within the first three days.

Valid ballots must provide an explanation for your choices that gives us a window into how you thought and why you came to the decisions you did. You can vote for any of the three awards — although they must be complete votes — but I will only tally votes for an award when there are at least five valid ballots submitted for it.

Remember, your votes must be based on THIS season. This is intended to give wide wiggle room for personal philosophies while still providing a boundary to make sure the award can be said to mean something. You can factor things like degree of difficulty as defined by you, but what you can't do is ignore how the player actually played on the floor this season in favor of what he might have done if only...

You may change your vote, but if you do, edit your original post rather than writing, "hey, ignore my last post, this is my real post until I change my mind again.” I similarly ask that ballots be kept in one post rather than making one post for Player of the Year, one post for Offensive Player of the Year, and/or one post for Defensive Player of the Year. If you want to provide your reasoning that way for the sake of discussion, fine, but please keep the official votes themselves in one aggregated post. Finally, for ease of tallying, I prefer for you to place your votes at the beginning of your balloting post, with some formatting that makes them stand out. I will not discount votes which fail to follow these requests, but I am certainly more likely to overlook them.

Current Voter List

With the addition of Wilt to my top 4 from last season, I think this is the first season where I feel good about 5 candidates being POY candidates from a modern perspective. Not that all would be perennial candidates, but all 5 of these guys are players I can see making a top 5 if things broke right - think Paul George in '19.

So that's nice.

Turn of the decade, let the good times roll. It's the Sixties!

Looking at estimated pace adjust stats by ElGee, we see the Hawks with the #1 offense, and Celtics with the #1 D, however, Philly appears as #2 in D, where before there was a chasm.



With regards to POY, this season looks like a 2 horse race. Wilt vs Russell. Ultimately, I'm going with Russell, as he contributes enough on the offensive end, but also shines as the best player on the Championship winning Celtics.

In the ECF, Russell put up 20.7 ppg, and 27 rpg, against Wilt's 30.5 and 27.5, but the Celtics triumphed 4-2, despite being outshot, largely based off their ability to control the boards, and got an extra 7.5 shots per game.
Then in the finals, Russell was 16.7 and 24.9 and the Hawks. Again, the Celtics were outshot, with Pettit and Hagan leading the way, however the Celtics team would overcome this again with their 13 extra shots per game. Not all of this was rebounding, but with Russell cleaning up at the back, it allowed for great Celtics defensive chemistry to generate turnovers.

Wilt gets #2 overall, as he was a force as a rookie. He is also #2 DPOY as his presence is the main reason the Warriors climbed so high in DRtg.

Then at 3, we have a few options. Pettit and Schayes were both solid, as were Hagan and Baylor. Finally, secondary star players of top teams deserve mentions such as Cousy, Gola, and Arizin. I wanted to reward Celtics and Warriors as they were by far the best defensive teams, so Gola gets 3rd DPOY, and Cousy my HM, for his ball hawking (of course it’s easier to ball hawk when Bill Russell is cleaning up).

Similarly on offense, it’s close, so I want to reward Pettit for playing on the #1 ranked offense. Wilt was great, but the Warriors were a defensive team (although they picked up their offense a little in the playoffs). Elgin gets #2 for his fantastic post season offensively, I think he ran out of teammates going up against the trio of Pettit, Hagan and Lovellette.

OPOY
1. Bob Pettit
2. Elgin Baylor
3. Wilt Chamberlain

HM: Dolph Schayes

DPOY
1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Tom Gola

HM: Bob Cousy

POY
1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Bob Pettit
4. Elgin Baylor
5. Dolph Schayes

HM: Cliff Hagan

eminence wrote:With the addition of Wilt to my top 4 from last season, I think this is the first season where I feel good about 5 candidates being POY candidates from a modern perspective. Not that all would be perennial candidates, but all 5 of these guys are players I can see making a top 5 if things broke right - think Paul George in '19.

So that's nice.

Yes, and with Oscar and West are their way, we are primed for a near decade of “easy” votes.

On that note, the 1960s might be a good time to consider running two threads concurrently, but will see what people think / whether thread activity seems to be dipping. 1960-68 was by a significant margin the least “ballot diverse” stretch of the prior project, and I expect a relatively similar trend this time.

AEnigma wrote:

eminence wrote:With the addition of Wilt to my top 4 from last season, I think this is the first season where I feel good about 5 candidates being POY candidates from a modern perspective. Not that all would be perennial candidates, but all 5 of these guys are players I can see making a top 5 if things broke right - think Paul George in '19.

So that's nice.

Yes, and with Oscar and West are their way, we are primed for a near decade of “easy” votes.

On that note, the 1960s might be a good time to consider running two threads concurrently, but will see what people think / whether thread activity seems to be dipping.

Happy to run 2 threads concurrently. I’ve been thinking about ‘60 season for a few days anyways.

Personally I’d much prefer 1 at a time.

I'd say 1 at a time

Worst to First '60

Royals (19-56): Team still stinks, Twyman looks like a good NBA player, but hard to tell how good with this level of support. Won't be in my top 5. Based off his later play with Oscar I'm not overly impressed with him, but he was certainly decent.

Lakers (25-50): It's all Elgin all the time, once again shows up in the playoffs, pushes the Hawks to the limit but comes up short this time. I don't (ever) see any signs of major improvement from Elgin over his rookie level (more common then, but still not the norm imo), but still a guy I'd be pretty comfortable with in the top 5.

Knicks (27-48): Last season was the last relevant Knicks season until Holzman arrives. Not much to say, similar-ish to last season with some good offensive players, but generally worse all around.

Pistons (30-45): Gene Shue is a good player, and I like Howell (not peaking yet), Dukes is decent too but no POY contenders. Just a balanced below average squad. Baylor lights 'em up pretty good in their 2 playoff games.

Nationals (45-30): Huge jump from the bottom to top half of the league this season. Looking at the top 5 Nationals it's no surprise - Costello/Greer/Yardley/Schayes/Kerr looks like a loaded lineup compared to the bottom half of the league. Schayes still solidly their #1 imo. In the POs they lose a 3 game series to a strong Warriors squad, with Schayes seeming to keep playing well again, Yardley the one in decline (duh, he retires after this season). Schayes with a monster 40/22 in their win over the Warriors, outscoring/rebounding even rookie Wilt for one game is pretty impressive stuff. Overall, the new rookie is too much, but Schayes will be on my ballot again (making 11 straight years, I imagine the number of players to do that will be in the single digits). Chance to stretch it to 12 years next season (outside chance he'd have been in my top 5 in '49 as well).

Hawks (46-29): Slater takes a bit of a step back, but more of the same from the Hawks. Underperforming vs the Lakers, but overperforming against the Celtics. Matchups matter. As always I tend to prefer Pettit over Hagan, but they're both strong players. Hagan is initially going to be my HM with Wilt's arrival.

Warriors (49-26): Wilt has arrived - leads a great Warriors defense, it's too bad he never realizes on his own that that's where he's having most of his impact. Oh well. Arizin/Gola weren't capable of leading a top team on their own anymore, but are still very solid 2nd/3rd guys. Rodgers/Woody... I'm less excited by (a warning for days to come). Wilt plays well in his first PO outing. Certainly top 5, and can see the argument for #1. I struggle to see him below #2 this season.

Celtics (59-16): Old guards aging out a bit, but Sam Jones beginning to arrive and still a very deep squad. Have Heinsohn as the #2 at this point, but not a contender for POY with the increased competition. Russell is Wilt's competition for #1. In the past I've pretty consistently gone with Bill, but I'm willing to reconsider if I hear anything particularly inspiring in this thread.

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Larry Costello
2. Richie Guerin
3. Bob Pettit

Another competitive year. Looking at Cousy, Guerin, Costello, Shue, Baylor, Pettit, and Schayes. Baylor is an impressive scorer and a respectable playmaker, but I do not think he is yet able to elevate individual teammates much. I heavily considered Shue but ultimately have the same concerns. Pettit and Schayes are similar but I trust their spacing effect more. Cousy continues to be a good passer but has faded hard as a scorer. The Knicks are irrelevant and Guerin has a prime-low minutes per game load.

Which leaves Costello, who I think has gone under-appreciated in his effect turning what had been a stagnant Nationals offence into a consistent top of the league force. Second place goes to Guerin, who I think probably qualifies as the second best playmaker in the league with Cousy’s decline, and third place goes to Bob Pettit for managing well with Martin and pushing the Celtics. I recognise some may furrow their brows at listing Pettit here and then putting him behind Baylor on the Player of the Year list, but as I gestured at last thread, I think Baylor actually has done more to boost his team’s defence, and as a corollary I think Pettit deserves a little extra offensive credit for his spacing effect (as discussed in this thread) and for being the lead of the best offence rather than the outright worst one.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Red Kerr

Wilt’s entrance gives this award two mainstays for the next decade, although I will need to give some thought to Wilt’s placement in 1963 and 1965. The Celtics and Warriors are such outliers this season that they shift the league average enough for the third place Nationals to look barely positive. However, it is still a compliment to Kerr that he will be my most consistent choice at #3 for the next few seasons.

Player of the Year

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Elgin Baylor
4. Bob Pettit
5. Dolph Schayes

Wilt is immediately the second best player in the league, currently by a distance (Oscar will start to push him in a couple of years). While this is not one of the years where I think Wilt seriously threatens to unseat Russell from his throne despite a lost effort — stay tuned in 1962, 1964, and 1968 — I also never seriously considered anyone else for second here.

Baylor improves upon his previous matchup with the Hawks while Pettit is in slightly lessened form from the prior season, but the only real ballot change here is Schayes falling back down to the fifth spot following a doomed effort against the Warriors where both Wilt and Arizin outscore him (with Arizin doing so on better efficiency as well). Schayes has a better case next year with a successful win over the Warriors, although I may still leave him in fifth because at this point in his career I think Baylor and Pettit have entrenched themselves as superior team foundations.

I prefer one thread at a time as well.

1. Bill Russell - I consider him as valuable as Wilt on offense in the latter's early years, so he gets the edge.

2. Wilt Chamberlain - I tried to search for a way to drop him below 2, but I think the defense/rebounding impact makes up for relatively low ceiling offensive style of play, and he did well enough in the playoffs defeating Schayes with a worse supporting cast.

3. Bob Pettit - Pettit's passing numbers have improved erasing one of the gaps with Schayes, he does pretty well getting to G7 of the finals without Martin

4. Elgin Baylor - Non-great team results but solid playoff run and the combination of scornig, passing, rebounding is still great

5. Dolph Schayes - Another great playoff run

Offensive player of the year

1. Bob Pettit
2. Elgin Baylor
3. Dolph Schayes

Defensive player of the year

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Tom Gola

Again, DPOY is the toughest choice. Russell and Wilt are easily top 2 for me, but who would take at the 3rd spot. It was the best season of Dukes career, I think he's worthy considering. Still unsure about Kerr being that good defensively, we don't have much footage about him but he didn't stand out as an exceptional defender at all.

Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell - Still just as dominant on the defensive end but also seems to make a step up on offense this season. He was incredible in both the regular season and play-offs as well. I don't think this is necessarily a slam dunk #1 pick as Wilt, Baylor and Pettit all had years that would have easily been #1 in some recent years but I don't think any of them had as complete of a season as Russell. It should also be noted that at this point it's no longer a Russell/Cousy show in terms of minutes but we see Russell taking a clear lead here and playing 8 more MPG than anyone else on his team in both the regular season and post-season, which also helps his case in terms of his impact.

2. Wilt Chamberlain - Immediate elite impact on defense as well as providing monstrous scoring leading to Wilt winning both ROY and MVP. Even though he had a great post-season by just any standard, it didn't live up to his own regular season performance or what Russell was doing. I'd probably take Baylor over Wilt as well if we're just talking post-season but the regular season difference is a bit too significant for me to swap them around for that.

3. Elgin Baylor - A top 5 regular season followed by an even more impressive play-off run lands Baylor 3rd on my ballot. There is an argument to be made to place Pettit ahead as he had a deeper run and seems to have been more consistent throughout the season but Baylor's post-season performance was more impressive to me, especially since he outplayed Pettit head to head.

4. Bob Pettit - Like I just mentioned, this could have easily been a #1 season but at this point it's hard to place him ahead of the Russell, Wilt and Baylor when they were pushing what was possible in basketball, while Pettit remained pretty consistent with the years before. Still a pretty massive gap between Pettit and the next group though.

5. Dolph Schayes - Very similar to the previous season with a top 10 regular season and then a big step up in the post-season. The only thing here is that the sample in the play-offs is even smaller than the previous year. I also considered Hagan, Arizin and some of the Celtics (mostly Heinsohn) but with Schayes being the clear leader of his team and the others benefitting from being clear 2nd or even 3rd fiddles on their team, they don't carry the same burden. The Nationals lost in the first round but it was a competitive series against a very strong Warriors team. The Nationals also had the 4th best record, 3rd best net rating and tied-2nd best SRS in the regular season so it'd be a bit skewed to punish Schayes heavily for playing in a strong conference.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Elgin Baylor
2. Bob Pettit
3. Wilt Chamberlain

Bit of an odd year as Baylor and Pettit are scoring like monsters but play on pretty bad offenses, while Pettit is a bit more low key but does lead the best offense in the league. I shuffled them around a bit but with Baylor stepping up in the play-offs, Pettit remaining roughly the same and Wilt taking a bit of a step back I'm most comfortable with this order.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Tom Gola

Russell is going to dominate this award like crazy but he does get some serious competition now with Wilt entering the scene. With the Celtics and Warriors being so far ahead of everyone else I didn't really feel like anyone on the other teams had a strong enough case to make my ballot. I went with Gola as my 3rd because the Warriors weren't a great defense just because of Wilt, when he inherited an already very solid defense of which I see Gola being the driving factor.

Dutchball97 wrote:With the Celtics and Warriors being so far ahead of everyone else I didn't really feel like anyone on the other teams had a strong enough case to make my ballot. I went with Gola as my 3rd because the Warriors weren't a great defense just because of Wilt, when he inherited an already very solid defense of which I see Gola being the driving factor.

Quick exercise here:

1960 Warriors (-4.3 rDrtg)
Wilt — 3338 minutes
Gola — 2870 minutes
Arizin — 2618 minutes
Rodgers — 2483 minutes
Sauldsberry — 1848 minutes
Andy Johnson — 1421 minutes
Graboski — 1269 minutes
Hattin — 1049 minutes

Season then goes from 75 games to 79 games.

1961 Warriors (-1.6 rDrtg)
Wilt — 3773 minutes
Arizin — 2935 minutes
Rodgers — 2905 minutes
Gola — 2712 minutes
Andy Johnson — 2000 minutes
Attles — 1544 minutes
Conlin — 1294 minutes
Graboski — 1012 minutes

Seems to be one notable name missing. What happened to Sauldsberry?

1960 Hawks (+0.7 rDrtg)
Pettit — 2896 minutes
Hagan — 2798 minutes
McCarthy — 2383 minutes
Lovellette — 1953 minutes
Martin — 1756 minutes
Ferrari — 1567 minutes
Si Green — 1354 minutes

1961 Hawks (-3.4 rDrtg)
Pettit — 3027 minutes
Hagan — 2701 minutes
McCarthy — 2519 minutes
Lovellette — 2111 minutes
Si Green — 1968 minutes
Wilkens — 1898 minutes
SAULDSBERRY — 1491 minutes

If we are talking driving factor of outlier defensive results, I would not be looking first at Gola.

Basic RS stats for the 6 I'm considering (sorry to secondary Celtics/Warriors/Nationals):

Baylor (23-47): 29.6 pts, 16.4 reb, 3.5 ast, 106 TS+ (1st Team)
Schayes (45-30): 22.5 pts, 12.8 reb, 3.4 ast, 107 TS+ (2nd Team)
Hagan (46-29): 24.8 pts, 10.7 reb, 4.0 ast, 113 TS+ (Allstar only)
Pettit (44-28): 26.1 pts, 17.0 reb, 3.6 ast, 110 TS+ (1st Team)
Wilt (47-25): 37.6 pts, 27.0 reb, 2.3 ast, 106 TS+ (1st Team, MVP)
Russell (59-15): 18.2 pts, 24.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 107 TS+ (2nd Team)

Cousy/Shue missing from the 1st Team, Guerin/Sharman/Twyman from the 2nd Team.

This seems to be the year where the early 50's stars truly get "phased out" by the new guard (a process which started as early as russel rookie year or even earlier with pettit as the transition link between eras) but by this point the top of the league is clearly dominated by the athletic outliers (and just next year skill outliers like oscar and west) who pushed the league to a new level of quality at the top end talent

My votes would probably (and in actuality) be

DPOY
1-russel there is no other option here, albeit the sizable jump phila makes with chamberlain arrival makes this one of the few russel years with a viable-ish alternative

Not much to say about the man who was synonimous with (most dominant defense of all time relative to their league) almost year by year and did it so as the clear common denominator no matter who came or left boston

That he had a seemingly decades ahead understanding of defense and a built in a lab body for playoffs defense (even more so than wilt, and up there with anyone in history pre wembayama with his combo of lenght, strenght and speed) just is the cherry on top of the team results

2-wilt chamberlain
Impressive, really impressive team defense results but as shown in other posts that compare to the 61 warriors he couldnt maintain them within celtics stratosphere on his own (no shame in that) without a really solid defensive roster around
I wonder if wilt took a more defense first focus (not to say he dismissed defense, just that he put a lot of time and energy on wcoring) and didnt bulk up as much whether in his prime he could have been as effective defensively as russel

3-kerr
I am taking a bit of a shot in the dark but it seems like the other common 3rd pick (tom gola) was not as clear of a driving factor of philadelphia defense at least fron what we can infer from wilt arrival and sauldsberry departure


OPOY
This gets very interesting because it is close to what tje last year pre russel was for DPOY. The last year of a soon outdated/obsolete level of offense (at the top end) as oscar amd west push offense basketball

1-pettit
Was torn with giving this to baylor impressive playoffs run as i usually value playoffs a ton over regular season. But baylor unimpressive team results in regular season and hawks consistency acroos the whole year weighted a bit more
Still i usually would trust the big ball handler (baylor) more witj a offense on a pure archetype bias but i will give pettit/hawks their flowers for a year long strong offense even if it was witj a more talented offense cast than lakers had

2-baylor.
Elgyn seems like a prototype for the future of basketball in lots lf ways. Athletic, big ball handler who can attack the paint, pass amd even take perimeter shots (making them mediocrily admittedly)

I would be happy with him 1st too but the lack of regular season good team offense results barely drags him below

3rd-will follow the crowd opinions here and say schayes combo of volume and efficiency is a good safe choice for 3rd in a league where pettit and baylor seem clearly ahead in offense talent and wilt is just getting his chops offensively. Probavly the last year a player of dolph caliber (with all due respect) gets in a OPOY as west/oscar level players are arriving soon

POY

1-RUSSEL
Not much else to say i didnt aay above in the dpoy vote. Led the best team, best defense, won amd even seems to have performed well scor hing for his standards while likely getting some creatiom and lots of offensive rebounds

2-WILT
Splash year as a rookie, tangible leap taken by his team with his arrival. Inmediately best player in a top end team, 2nd best defender. Raw but useful high volume scoring

3-Robert E Lee Pettit
Great year long season, probably a clear cut top 4 tslent in the organization. Great playoff run

4-Baylor
carried a weak lakers roster pretty damn well. Probably the most gifted perimeter player of the leage pre 60-s

5- schayes
Seems like his era lamarcus aldridge to me. A just quietly really good player for a long time. Except higher in the league hierarchy as there wss less top end talent.
Good numbers and results consistently too. One of the 50's greats

I agree that the talent pool has been expanding (it always has to date) and it was a steeper curve earlier, I myself made a comment about this being the first season I really feel good about the whole top 5 by a modern standard.

I still think how steep the early star improvements were is overhyped.

West doesn't arrive as a pro until Schayes 12th professional season. Cousy/Arizin are at similar phases in their careers (went pro a bit later/older than Schayes). Them being passed relatively quickly looks like normal stars aging out to me, but only in this era do folks treat it as 'oh, these guys would've clearly been better had they arrived at the same time'. They may have been, but in this era it's (often) treated as a given, whereas a comparison like Hakeem vs Duncan seem perfectly reasonable.

The Wilt/Oscar/West talent arrival over two seasons was the most concentrated top talent arriving all at once for decades in either direction and aggravates the issue. They also greatly overshadow the generation to come after them, but it doesn't often get painted as negatively for that next group (Hondo/Thurmond/Barry/Frazier/etc, not until Kareem arrives a decade from this thread is there a player generally seen as a challenger to the Wilt/Oscar/West trio).

This will be my Voting Post.

1. Bill Russell

This is the year "best player on the best team" turns into a clear "best team because of the best player". With the old guard of Cousy and Sharman fading, the Celtics jump by 2 points of SRS with Russell becoming a large minutes outlier averaging 8 more minutes than anyone else on his team.

The result? The Celtics become the first team to approach 8-points of SRS in NBA history. More pertinently, this puts them nearly 5 points higher than anyone else. Statistically this is one of the most dominant teams ever. While the emergence of key pieces like Sam Jones likely contributing, I see Russell's ascending from great-hood to goat-hood as a primary driver.

As icing, Russell finds himself in a rare-spot being one of the Celtics lead (and most efficient) scorers in the regular-season, and being both their lead and most efficient scorer in the playoffs. 59 probably should have been unanimous, but there's a solid chance Russell gets his that here, and not for lack of competition...

2. Wilt Chaimberlain

A 17-win improvement by record. A 14-win improvement(5-ish points) by SRS. Considering lower tresholds that's an MVP-ish signal from a rookie as Wilt's arrival coincided with one of the worst teams in the league becoming the best. Comfortably his team's best defender while at least in the conversation as his team's best attacker, even in year one, Wilt is likely already the 2nd best player in the league.

3. Dolph Schayes

Somewhat fitting Russell's primary two-way challenger from the prior year loses the right to re-challenge facing Russell's greatest two-way challenger. For the regular-season the team loses a point of m.o.v but is compensated with 7-wins. By Basketball Reference Schayes even seems to have a bit of a resurgence in terms of scoring volume and efficiency. Still the main difference here is there is now a Wilt Chaimberlain. So from second, Schayes drops to third.

4. Bob Petit

As both the leading scorer and defensive anchor Petit again takes Russell to 7. Just how much one credits a 7-game push against a juggernaut that keeps winning despite getting pushes is fair, but the Hawks were a strong regular-season team as well and over Russell's early tenure have been the most worthy "2nd-best team" whether one takes the regular-season sample or the playoff performance.

With all that in mind, it's hard to see Petit going lower and there's certainly a case that he should be higher.

5. Elgin Baylor

How does the head of a 25-50, -4 SRS team end up top 5?

1. Exploit 3/4ths of the team making the playoffs to make the playoffs
2. Beat a "better" team to make the second round.
3. Take the 2nd best team in the league to 7
4. While doing steps 2 and 3, increase your scoring while your efficiency skyrockets

Fitting proto-lebron pulls a stereotypical Lebron to make the ballot.

DPOY

1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Schayes

OPOY

1. Petit
2. Baylor
3. Schayes

Ohayo - would you have had Baylor top 5 without the playoffs or a secondary player from the top half of the league (mainly thinking Hagan).

eminence wrote:Ohayo - would you have had Baylor top 5 without the playoffs or a secondary player from the top half of the league (mainly thinking Hagan).

Probably the latter. And yeah, Hagan would have been my pick.