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Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 4:18 am
by letskissbro
For the poll, who would you rather have as a complementary star during their primes? Since they're all unlikely to win you championships as the main guy. Some inflation adjusted box numbers as a conversation starter:

1998-2000 Gary Payton: 23.7 IA pts/75, 9.7 IA ast/75, 102.3 TS+ or 59.5% TS in 2024
2016-2018 Kyle Lowry: 22.5 IA pts/75, 8.2 IA ast/75, 109.3 TS+ or 63.3% TS
2019+2022-23 Jrue Holiday: 21.1 IA pts/75, 8.3 IA ast/75, 101.7 TS+ or 58.9% TS

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 12:38 pm
by tsherkin
For what era?

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 12:48 pm
by penbeast0
In their own eras and in their prime:

Payton
Lowry
Holiday


Though Holiday/Lowry is very close.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 2:39 pm
by SonicMcMahon
Man, I think it's close.

GP had the most 'star power' of the 3. He could probably get you a bucket most consistently and looks the best on the base 5-stat sheet, shot a fine percentage and was relatively low TO as well. I think he and Jrue are close as man-man defenders but give the edge to Jrue. That said, I think Kyle is the best team-defender by a good margin.

Also all 3 can get the yips in the playoffs a bit as scorers (esp Kyle and Jrue), and that's at least partially due to the fact that none of them should be the 1st option. But I always found the criticisms of Kyle's (and Jrue's) playoff struggles to be missing the major point. They were always major engines for winning in any format.

In the end, I'm a sucker for the many many things Kyle Lowry does that don't show up on the stat sheet, so I voted for him.

PS. I was just thinking of posting a Jrue vs Kyle thread, and GP happens to be one of my all-time fave players, so really happy to see this post!

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 9:41 pm
by xb3at band1tx
Gimme the Glove

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 9:58 pm
by One_and_Done
I'll probably take Lowry.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:40 pm
by GSP
Payton is easily 1st. He was a more reliable scorer than Lowry or Jrue, better overall defender and better playmaker. He was underrated offball despite not being a great shooter he just never had the chance to play off a Kawhi or Giannis when he was in his prime in a role where he was clearly not 1st option as good as Kemp was it was more a 1ab

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2024 11:45 pm
by tsherkin
Payton's a tough one for me. He wasn't an offensive juggernaut, and he definitely had issues with his J. I think he'd definitely be worse in today's environment as a result. I think he was a pretty good fit on a very talented Sonics squad in the 90s, though. And he was good enough on D in the 90s that he rocked top-3 in the DPOY vote for almost a half-decade straight. I don't know that he actually deserved it when he won as I'm not sure any guard really does, and I can't really see a lot of statistical evidence which lines up with that reputation. But still, he applied a lot of good man-on pressure, and he was an excellent ball-thief.

Holiday is pretty clearly a skillfull guy. Competent playmaker, solid 3pt shooter, can apply rim pressure. Doesn't wow you with SPG numbers but plays good positional defense. Lower-end offensive value compared to Payton, but proportionate to his role and reputation, I think.

Lowry's prime was basically 12-18. He titled in 2019 with us, obviously, and he continued to score in volume for a couple seasons after 18, but he was starting to tail off due to injury and age after that point. Still, he rebounded well for his size, he was a decent playmaker, he was a good defender and he was an efficient mid-volume scorer who didn't push it too much. He was, however, rim-or-3 to a fairly exaggerated extent. In Toronto, something like 70% of his shots were inside 3 feet or from 3, and he wasn't much good when he did bother to use the middle spaces. Something like 38% from 3-23 feet on that 30% of his shooting volume, which could get ugly when that 3 wasn't falling.

He was good. Had a little peak from like 16-18 where his offensive impact was at its apex and looked similar-ish to Payton's. I enjoyed having him around a lot.

Tough call. I think the answer here is "it depends on what you need." Lowry's probably the best #2. Holiday's the best tertiary kind of guy. Payton was pretty good in the role he filled for the Sonics as #1, with appropriate support. He didn't stun as a scorer, but he was a little above league-average in efficiency, didn't overshoot it like Iverson and he was a quality playmaker.

In today's game, as a complementary star? I'd probably go with Lowry.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2024 2:30 am
by Dr Positivity
I’m surprised people think this is close, Payton is a different level of star to me, even if his offense and defense didn’t peak at same time

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2024 2:33 am
by ShotCreator
Jrue is way out of his depth here. Not even close to the offense generator of Payton or Lowry.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2024 3:19 am
by Warspite
GP is the GOAT guard on defense I have seen.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2024 3:19 am
by Warspite
GP is the GOAT guard on defense I have seen.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2024 2:53 pm
by jojo4341
The "safe" answer would be that it depends what the team needs. But generally speaking, all things being equal, you go with the most talented and that's GP. But breaking it down further:

GP - The only time you don't take him is if you already have at least 2 or more stars on the team, moreso if there's a guard or wing that is ball-dominant. Examples: GP would be a better fit for the current Spurs since they don't have a good PG to feed Wemby and GP would really become the #2 scorer between Wemby and Vassell. GP could also help the Jazz as he'd be the 1A/B with Lauri. Perhaps start Sexton for shooting and bring Clarkson off the bench.

Lowry - Very versatile PG that can defend and shoot. Great as the primarily facilitator, okay as spot-up shooter and technically the worst defender of the three. Examples: Lowry would be a better fit for the current T'Wolves (replacing/demoting Conley) since he basically provides the same thing prime Conley does. He doesn't need to carry a huge scoring load, but can still be a great 3rd wheel behind Ant and Towns, while still providing solid defense and shooting. Lowry would also fit on the current Suns for the same reasons playing behind Booker and KD, but replacing Beal.

Jrue - Most versatile of the 3 guards. He can defend, shoot, create his own shot and facilitate. Unless you have an elite back court, like prime Splash Bros or Luka/Kyrie, he can fit in any system. He's just not as good defensively as GP, best shooter of the 3 and about equal as a facilitator. Examples: Jrue would be a better fit for the current Bucks/Knicks/Lakers/Sixers/Pistons since he doesn't take away from Dame/Brunson/Lebron/Maxey/Cade and still provide perimeter defense and shooting that all 5 teams need. Clearly, Jrue is very portable and can fit into many other teams as well.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2024 1:06 am
by kcktiny
Payton's a tough one for me. He wasn't an offensive juggernaut


In just the 3 year range of 1998-2000 Payton (4637 pts) scored 503 more points than any other PG, scored the 6th most points among all players, had the highest per game scoring for a PG at 21.7 pts/g (among all PGs that played all 3 seasons), and threw for the 2nd most assists. In the regular season he alone scored 22.0% of the Sonics total points scored.

From 1993-94 to 2002-03 (a full decade), Gary Payton scored 16,295 points (20.8 pts/g). The next most points scored by a PG over that decade was just 11,227 by Nick Van Exel. The difference between the two was 5068 points, which was also about the difference between what Van Exel, the 2nd best scoring PG, scored, and what the 15th best scoring PG scored (Mark Jackson, 6517 points). In other words Payton was far and away the best scoring PG in the NBA over a full decade. Over that decade he alone scored 19.9% of the Sonics' total points scored in the regular season. For comparison Steph Curry in his 10 best seasons for most points scored (1213-1617, 1819, 2021-2324) accounted for 20.9% of the Warriors' total points scored in the regular season.

In 1999-00 Payton scored 24.2 pts/g. Not counting the 26.5 pts/g Michael Adams scored in 1990-91 for the all-offense, no-defense Denver Nuggets (who lead the league in scoring that season at 119.9 pts/g but finished with a W-L record of 20-62 because they allowed an all-time league highest/worst 130.8 pts/g that season), Payton's 24.2 pts/g was the highest per game scoring by a PG in a season in 14 years, since Nate Archibald scored 24.8 pts/g in the 1975-76 season. Also another PG did not average more than 24.2 pts/g in a season for another 15 seasons, when both Gilbert Arenas and Allen Iverson scored 25+ pts/g in 2004-05. So for a 27 year stretch (1976-77 to 2003-04, and not counting Michael Adams in 1990-91) Gary Payton had the highest single season per game scoring average for a PG.

and he definitely had issues with his J


From 1998-2000 Payton shot 49.9% on 2s. Among the 39 PGs that played 3000+ minutes those 3 seasons that was the 2nd highest 2pt FG% (only Stockton shot higher). His 49.8% eFG% was the 7th highest among those 39 PGs.

That same decade of 1993-94 to 2002-03 Payton shot 50.6% on 2s when all other PGs combined shot just 45.5% on 2s over that 10 year stretch. Among the 92 PGs that played 5000+ minutes over the decade Payton's 50.6% 2pt FG% was the 5th highest, his 50.2% eFG% the 18th highest.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2024 2:52 am
by homecourtloss
Dr Positivity wrote:I’m surprised people think this is close, Payton is a different level of star to me, even if his offense and defense didn’t peak at same time


Both Lowry and JRue are very high impact players who are unselfish players possessing few of any weaknesses, so I can see why.

Warspite wrote:GP is the GOAT guard on defense I have seen.


Payton’s defense is highly overrated as his own teammate was a better wing/guard than he was. His offense has been underrat3d, though.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2024 3:36 am
by B-Mitch 30
homecourtloss wrote:Payton’s defense is highly overrated as his own teammate was a better wing/guard than he was. His offense has been underrat3d, though.

Can you elaborate on this?

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2024 10:03 pm
by kcktiny
Payton’s defense is highly overrated


Let us guess - because some on/off plus/minus mathematical concoction says so? Or did you actually watch him play over his career and that's your opinion?

Specifically - what years was his defense "overrated"?

Payton was voted (by NBA coaches) all-defensive 1st team 9 straight years. Here's the voting points and where he ranked among the most voting points:

9394 42 2nd
9495 43 2nd
9596 48 3rd
9697 49 4th
9798 51 2nd
9899 47 1st
9900 52 1st
0001 38 4th
0102 47 2nd

Payton received votes (from the media - sportscasters and broadcasters) for DPOY over 7 straight seasons. Here's where he ranked in most votes:

9394 5th
9495 6th
9596 1st
9697 2nd
9798 2nd
9899 3rd
9900 5th

So NBA coaches considered Payton an outstanding defender over 9 straight seasons, giving him as many voting points (actually more) at age 33 for the all-defensive team as they did when he was 25. And these were not the same coaches - the 26 head coaches that voted in 1993-94 were not all the same as the 28 coaches that voted in 2001-02. Yet in both seasons he received the 2nd most voting points, and anywhere from the 1st to the 4th most voting points in the years in between.

So what is the reasoning for your statement that his defense was overrated? And keep in mind that over those 9 years Payton averaged playing 3044 minutes/season. He was on the floor for just over 4/5 of all the time the Sonics played. You start quoting on/off or plus/minus ratings and they are for all intent useless as you are comparing sample sizes of data that are nowhere near comparable - for every 4 minutes he was on the floor you are comparing those statistics to statistics in the just 1 minute he was off. The latter is far more likely to be skewed.

So not just overrated, but highly overrated? Explain.

Re: Gary Payton vs. Kyle Lowry vs. Jrue Holiday

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2024 10:54 pm
by SonicMcMahon
B-Mitch 30 wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:Payton’s defense is highly overrated as his own teammate was a better wing/guard than he was. His offense has been underrat3d, though.

Can you elaborate on this?


I think he's referring to Nate McMillian, and I think he's right. That dude was a beast. I was the biggest Sonic fan you could find at the time (admittedly, was a tween kid in the mid-late 90s), and I was the biggest Kemp and GP fan around. Still, in reviewing GP's career through the old tape and advanced stats etc. I think he was a bit over-rated as an overall defender. He was a very good ball hawk and steals-getter, strong and wiry and could get in guy's faces. I think he wore player's down with trash-talk, defense and posting up smaller guards. But he took risks, and he couldn't lock down bigger guys.