ATG Offensive Engines LeBron, Magic, Jordan, Curry, Nash, and Jokic and Playoff Series

[homecourtloss]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In the charts below, you can see how these players did against specific defenses. LeBron is good, the red circles are Jordan, the purple is Magic, the yellow is Curry, the green are Nash, and the blue is Jokic.




There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 14 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 3
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 6 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 4 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Nash: 1

Here we see a visualization of all the playoff series Jokic, LeBron, Curry, Jordan, Nash, and Magic have played. From left to right it is Nikola Jokić in blue LeBron in brown, curry in yellow, Jordan in red, Nash, in green, and magic in purple.



And here we see the +8, +12, +15, +18, and +20 series.

[falcolombardi]

Look at all that floor raising

[SpreeS]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

[falcolombardi]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

Lebron literally faced some of the toughest slants of defenses ever.....

[SpreeS]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

Lebron literally faced some of the toughest slants of defenses ever.....

For example checked some teams

IND 2013-2014 rDrtg -7.4

52 games with EAST def 89.7 pts/g
30 games with WEST def 96.9 pts/g

BOS 2010-2011 rDrtg -7.0

52 games with EAST def 89.8 pts/g
30 games with WEST def 93.5 pts/g

IND 2012-2013 rDrtg -6.1

52 games with EAST def 88.5 pts/g
30 games with WEST def 94.5 pts/g

LAL 1986-1987 rOrtg +7.3

30 games with EAST offence 113.5 pts/g
52 games with WEST offence 119.3 pts/g

You need to convert RS rOrtg/rDrtg to conferences 50%/50% (now 63%/37%). And it's the least you can do, because it is not possible to calculate the impact of 22 games difference in a stronger/weaker conference in the final standings.

I guarantee if you change conferences for Magic LAL/Bird BOS or Lebron MIA/CLE /Curry GSW, you would have totally different GOAT list.

[AEnigma]

^ It is your “guarantee”; you do it.

But one thing before you do: be sure to remember to adjust for pace.

0.5 * ((Tm FGA + (0.4 * Tm FTA) - 1.07 * (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Opp DRB)) * (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TOV) + (Opp FGA + (0.4 * Opp FTA) - 1.07 * (Opp ORB / (Opp ORB + Tm DRB)) * (Opp FGA - Opp FG) + Opp TOV))

Take the 1987 Lakers against the Eastern conference.

0.5 * ((89.0 + (0.4 * 27.7) - 1.07 * (13.5 / (13.5 + 27.1)) * (89.0 - 44.8) + 14.3) + (89.1 + (0.4 * 27.0) - 1.07 * (16.0 / (16.0 + 28.8)) * (89.1 - 42.3) + 16.6)) =
0.5 * ((89.0 + 11.08 - 1.07 * (13.5 / 40.6) * 44.2 + 14.3) + (89.1 + 10.8 - 1.07 * (16.0 / 44.8) * 46.8 + 16.6)) =
0.5 * ((100.08 - 1.07 * 0.333 * 44.2 + 14.3) + (99.9 - 1.07 * 0.357 * 46.8 + 16.6)) = 98.6

… which is of course notably less than their season pace estimate of 101.6, and when applied to that oh so disappointing 113.5 point per game average gives us a 115.1 oRtg against 22 eastern conference opponents (as compared to their overall 115.6 oRtg). Basic algebra accordingly tells us the real difference there is:

Eastern opponents = 115.1 oRtg
Western opponents = 115.8 oRtg

… which means that the “adjusted” true offensive rating would be more like 115.45.

Woah, what a stunning change!!!

[Djoker]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

When I analyzed offensive play, I used a filter of 5+ SRS opposition to assess how they perform against better teams and Magic's teams hold up but Lebron's teams look weak. So indeed Lebron padded his numbers against weak opposition.

I could probably add Nash/Jokic to that analysis as well at some point.

Here is a link to the original thread (post #90):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2373020&start=80

[AEnigma]

Evidently on top of asking for 50-win support, Lebron also should have asked for less defensively skewed competition so he could instead claim to have offensively excelled against murderous opposition like the 1991 Finals Lakers or the 1993 Finals Suns.

[falcolombardi]

Evidently on top of asking for 50-win support, Lebron also should have asked for less defensively skewed competition so he could instead claim to have offensively excelled against murderous opposition like the 1991 Finals Lakers or the 1993 Finals Suns.

Are you telling me the 2005 suns (+5.5 srs) and their below average +1 defense rating are not a better defense measure than the league leading all time level -7 D-rating pacers in 2014 (4.8 srs) ????

[homecourtloss]

Evidently on top of asking for 50-win support, Lebron also should have asked for less defensively skewed competition so he could instead claim to have offensively excelled against murderous opposition like the 1991 Finals Lakers or the 1993 Finals Suns.

Are you telling me the 2005 suns (+5.5 srs) and their below average +1 defense rating are not a better defense measure than the league leading all time level -7 D-rating pacers in 2014 (4.8 srs) ????

[Colbinii]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

When I analyzed offensive play, I used a filter of 5+ SRS opposition to assess how they perform against better teams and Magic's teams hold up but Lebron's teams look weak. So indeed Lebron padded his numbers against weak opposition.

I could probably add Nash/Jokic to that analysis as well at some point.

Here is a link to the original thread (post #90):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2373020&start=80

Are you saying LeBron would look more impressive if he put up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Denver Nuggets [5.37 SRS, 105.1 DRTG] rather than the reality of LeBron putting up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Indiana Pacers [3.34 SRS, 99.8 DRTG]?

Because it appears you are trying to tell me this is the case.

[SHAQ32]

How many of those LeBron seasons are after the rule changes in 2016?

[Colbinii]

How many of those LeBron seasons are after the rule changes in 2016?

LeBron had a ton of great playoff series before 2017.

2009 ORL
2011 BOS
2012 BOS
2012 OKC
2013 IND
2013 SAS
2014 IND
2015 ATL
2016 TOR

[Djoker]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

When I analyzed offensive play, I used a filter of 5+ SRS opposition to assess how they perform against better teams and Magic's teams hold up but Lebron's teams look weak. So indeed Lebron padded his numbers against weak opposition.

I could probably add Nash/Jokic to that analysis as well at some point.

Here is a link to the original thread (post #90):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2373020&start=80

Are you saying LeBron would look more impressive if he put up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Denver Nuggets [5.37 SRS, 105.1 DRTG] rather than the reality of LeBron putting up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Indiana Pacers [3.34 SRS, 99.8 DRTG]?

Because it appears you are trying to tell me this is the case.

Huh?

Your first example is +5.9 rORtg and the second is +11.3 rORtg. I don't follow.

But yes. I think looking at offensive performances against stronger teams in general, not just stronger defenses, is informative.

[Colbinii]

When I analyzed offensive play, I used a filter of 5+ SRS opposition to assess how they perform against better teams and Magic's teams hold up but Lebron's teams look weak. So indeed Lebron padded his numbers against weak opposition.

I could probably add Nash/Jokic to that analysis as well at some point.

Here is a link to the original thread (post #90):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2373020&start=80

Are you saying LeBron would look more impressive if he put up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Denver Nuggets [5.37 SRS, 105.1 DRTG] rather than the reality of LeBron putting up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Indiana Pacers [3.34 SRS, 99.8 DRTG]?

Because it appears you are trying to tell me this is the case.

Huh?

Your first example is +5.9 rORtg and the second is +11.3 rORtg. I don't follow.

One of these teams is a +5 SRS team, the other is "only" +3.34 SRS.

But yes. I think looking at offensive performances against stronger teams in general, not just stronger defenses, is informative.

So a player posting a +5 rORTG against a 6 SRS team with +7.0 rOrtg, +1.0 rDrtg, is more impressive than a player posting +10 rOrtg against a 4 SRS team with +1.0 rOrtg, -5.0 rDrtg?

Can't say this computes for me.

Why not do somewhere where instead of an arbitrary cut-off, you use a gradient where you put more weight on higher-level teams.

Another issue with your methodology of 5 SRS as a cutoff is not all 5 SRS teams are equal. Comparing rOrtg against all 5 SRS teams, without account for Drtg, seems foolish. Perhaps you should include the average or median rDRTG of all the 5+ SRS teams.

[Doctor MJ]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In this chart below, the squares are LeBron, the red circles are Jordan, the purple star is Magic, the yellow X is Curry, the green triangles are Nash, and the blue diamond is Jokic.



There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 15 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 4
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 7 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 1
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 5 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Magic: 1
Nash: 1

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

[Djoker]

Are you saying LeBron would look more impressive if he put up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Denver Nuggets [5.37 SRS, 105.1 DRTG] rather than the reality of LeBron putting up a 111 Ortg against the 2013 Indiana Pacers [3.34 SRS, 99.8 DRTG]?

Because it appears you are trying to tell me this is the case.

Huh?

Your first example is +5.9 rORtg and the second is +11.3 rORtg. I don't follow.

One of these teams is a +5 SRS team, the other is "only" +3.34 SRS.

But yes. I think looking at offensive performances against stronger teams in general, not just stronger defenses, is informative.

So a player posting a +5 rORTG against a 6 SRS team with +7.0 rOrtg, +1.0 rDrtg, is more impressive than a player posting +10 rOrtg against a 4 SRS team with +1.0 rOrtg, -5.0 rDrtg?

Can't say this computes for me.

Why not do somewhere where instead of an arbitrary cut-off, you use a gradient where you put more weight on higher-level teams.

Another issue with your methodology of 5 SRS as a cutoff is not all 5 SRS teams are equal. Comparing rOrtg against all 5 SRS teams, without account for Drtg, seems foolish. Perhaps you should include the average or median rDRTG of all the 5+ SRS teams.

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

[falcolombardi]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In this chart below, the squares are LeBron, the red circles are Jordan, the purple star is Magic, the yellow X is Curry, the green triangles are Nash, and the blue diamond is Jokic.



There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 15 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 4
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 7 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 1
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 5 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Magic: 1
Nash: 1

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

Somethingh else to consider is the sampling not being equal in distribution of series through their careers.

Like how pre prime lebron from 2006-2008 played in 9 playoff series but similar age pre prime 85-87 jordan played in only 3 playoff series.

Wizards jordan played no playoffs series but post 35 years old lebron has (and played well, but not as well as if hr was younger)


Is the thingh with averages being like that famous example of "average means that if you have 2 houses and i am homeless, we both have 1 house on average"

[AEnigma]

Huh?

Your first example is +5.9 rORtg and the second is +11.3 rORtg. I don't follow.

One of these teams is a +5 SRS team, the other is "only" +3.34 SRS.

But yes. I think looking at offensive performances against stronger teams in general, not just stronger defenses, is informative.

So a player posting a +5 rORTG against a 6 SRS team with +7.0 rOrtg, +1.0 rDrtg, is more impressive than a player posting +10 rOrtg against a 4 SRS team with +1.0 rOrtg, -5.0 rDrtg?

Can't say this computes for me.

Why not do somewhere where instead of an arbitrary cut-off, you use a gradient where you put more weight on higher-level teams.

Another issue with your methodology of 5 SRS as a cutoff is not all 5 SRS teams are equal. Comparing rOrtg against all 5 SRS teams, without account for Drtg, seems foolish. Perhaps you should include the average or median rDRTG of all the 5+ SRS teams.

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

Does it still give you whiplash to go from “obviously it is easier to juice your relative results against lower SRS opponents” to “defensive quality does not affect relative offensive performance”, or has that pretty much become second nature to you.

[homecourtloss]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In this chart below, the squares are LeBron, the red circles are Jordan, the purple star is Magic, the yellow X is Curry, the green triangles are Nash, and the blue diamond is Jokic.



There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 15 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 4
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 7 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 1
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 5 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Magic: 1
Nash: 1

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

Somethingh else to consider is the sampling not being equal in distribution of series through their careers.

Like how pre prime lebron from 2006-2008 played in 9 playoff series but similar age pre prime 85-87 jordan played in only 3 playoff series.

Wizards jordan played no playoffs series but post 35 years old lebron has (and played well, but not as well as if hr was younger)


Is the thingh with averages being like that famous example of "average means that if you have 2 houses and i am homeless, we both have 1 house on average"

Good point. For example, from 2009 through 2018, LeBron played in 37 playoff series, a number which would nearly comprise the entirety of all playoff series played for almost all players here. In these 37 series:

59% were 8+ rORtg
48.6% were 10+ rORtg
18.9% were 12+ rORtg
10.8% were 18+ rORtg <—This is a crazy number