Peak Steph rank in 1979?

[rand]

Where would peak Steph have ranked in the NBA in 1979? That was the last NBA season without a 3pt line.

Steph gets a full offseason, training camp and preseason to adjust to his new environment.

[Wallace_Wallace]

The thing is, without a 3 point line, teams wouldn't put as much emphasize on defending it. I can't imagine what his shooting percentages will be if he's shooting 20-25 foot wide open jumpers, he will likely have a 60/50/90 shooting splits. If he had a respectable big men like Bill Cartwright, Robert Parish or Elvin Hayes, this imaginary team can automatically rival with the Lakers/Celtics/Sixers/Rockets

[penbeast0]

IF you knew a guy consistently hit the 20-25 footer, you defended him there. He wouldn't be doubled out there but due to floor spacing, he isn't doubled out there even today. I think he'd be a great player even without the 3 point line but he's not shooting 60% from the field with his game.

[Cavsfansince84]

I mean who do you really rank ahead of him? Kareem and Moses for sure. After that he's right in the mix with everyone else who is top 10 imo.

[Owly]

IF you knew a guy consistently hit the 20-25 footer, you defended him there. He wouldn't be doubled out there but due to floor spacing, he isn't doubled out there even today. I think he'd be a great player even without the 3 point line but he's not shooting 60% from the field with his game.

I think that's one of the questions ... how quickly do teams adapt to a guy that could shoot 45% on/at high volume, against teams that knew it was coming, knew it was coming on shots mostly (non-corner) are with all of the foot beyond a 24ft line ... and sometimes quite a bit more, where it's worth an extra point. Some people have played in the ABA so it's not entirely foreign ... but they haven't seen anything like Curry. If that circa 45% gets a significant boost ... and then you look at era norms for efficiency ... it could get dangerous even despite the extra point. I seem to remember seeing some pretty lax coverage of the line in the 80s even with the extra point but that might not be a robust sampling so much as skewed memories of tiny available samples. And I suppose if they see you keep making it they'll soon learn. Though he could make you pay other ways. The other thing is how is handling called: exactly how it was at the time and how he adapts there.

Time machine stuff is all ... speculative, and there's never one perfect way to do it fairly. And health might crop up. Oh and in this instance is Dell a precursor still (the expression of the Q means we aren't moving him as a child but maybe if Dell's been time-traveled too, earlier, that just gives a bit of a heads up, idk)?

[EmpireFalls]

I’m not terribly interested in comparing players from ‘79 without a 3 point line to 2016 players off hand

What I will say is that if you transported the 2015-2021 NBA to 1979 he would never even be close to the best player under those rules. The 3 point line is critical to his success.

[OhayoKD]

IF you knew a guy consistently hit the 20-25 footer, you defended him there. He wouldn't be doubled out there but due to floor spacing, he isn't doubled out there even today. I think he'd be a great player even without the 3 point line but he's not shooting 60% from the field with his game.

He mainly isn't doubled because he's the best off-ball mover ever

[D.Brasco]

A 6'2 guy coming up in the pre-3 point era league would have probably been expected to play more of a traditional PG style. Steph could have been good but he wouldn't be recognizable as the Steph we think of now.

[Tomtolbert]

A 6'2 guy coming up in the pre-3 point era league would have probably been expected to play more of a traditional PG style. Steph could have been good but he wouldn't be recognizable as the Steph we think of now.

This is fair, as there's a wide range of possibilities as to what type of player he'd become if we moved his birthdate back to have him grow up and play in that era. But the OP's scenario is taking peak Steph as we know him and giving him a year to adjust.

[Dr Positivity]

Best perimeter player in the league, below Kareem and maybe Moses overall.

[tsherkin]

What I will say is that if you transported the 2015-2021 NBA to 1979 he would never even be close to the best player under those rules. The 3 point line is critical to his success.

I don't love the phrasing here.

Like, not in the sense that Steph would immutably have been the best player; that's very much up for debate, particularly in a league with Kareem. I am inclined to agree that Steph without the 3pt line would not be better than prime Kareem.

But the disrespect to Steph in that phrasing is remarkable.

Even without the 3pt line, without changing a single element of his game, 2016 Steph would have been a roughly 25/5/7 guy on almost 56% TS, or about +2.6% rTS, and in about 34 mpg. That's enough to be better than World B Free (who was the 2nd-leading scorer that year), a comparable scorer to Bob McAdoo and still a high-end offensive player due to his passing. There's also a reasonable chance that he would play more minutes per game, and would then likely shoot more per game. It would not be a stretch to suggest he could at least approach World B Free and George Gervin in that season as a scoring leader, which would also dramatically shape his perception. Steph has twice scored 30+ ppg (and won the scoring title both times) in his actual career. One of those times was in 2016. And in 2021, he scored 32 ppg. Once again, even without the 3pt line, he'd have been scoring 26.6 ppg without any adjustment, and that was also in 34 mpg.

And that's ignoring that 2016 Steph played at 99.3 possessions per game, and the 1979 league average was 105.8 possessions per game. Imagine how much easier it would be for him to pull an Alex English type set and just sprint end to end for open 15-footers on the baseline, or pull-ups inside a range at which he could comfortably hit 44-46%.

LOTS of variables here you're not considering.

And that's while ignoring the fact that he wouldn't be bombing from 30-40 feet nearly as often as he does in today's game because there's no real reason to do so. And that he was still a 44% shooter from 10-23 feet in general. And let's not forget his off-ball movement (a hallmark in the positive commentary around John Havlicek), and the level of playmaking he evidenced prior to Kerr moving him more off-ball in the first place.

So no, I think there's a very real chance that he'd be considered one of the best players in the league even without the 3pt shot, because of his evident proficiency on offense in multiple regards. And that is also still ignoring how adept he is with the ball, one of his most oft-overlooked traits.

The 3pt line is critical to his present legend, for sure. It is also critical to his specific numbers. But he is still an exceptional player regardless. Again, not enough to really challenge Kareem, that makes sense. Kareem was a demon and has his hand in the GOAT argument. That's a separate consideration. But there really wasn't anyone else in 1979 who was head-and-shoulders above Steph to the point of being unreachable.

[penbeast0]

What I will say is that if you transported the 2015-2021 NBA to 1979 he would never even be close to the best player under those rules. The 3 point line is critical to his success.

....

What I was thinking he meant was that if we took all the players from 2015-2021, ie. the league over the last 6 years, and moved them all to 1979 with that equipment, training, rules, refs, etc. then Steph would drop way down the rankings. Not that he wouldn't be above average as a guard, but maybe All-Star or occasional All-NBA type without the 3 pointer.

Not sure I'm right, but that's the interpretation I took which would be a bit more interesting than the normal time machine one player bit.

[tsherkin]

What I was thinking he meant was that if we took all the players from 2015-2021, ie. the league over the last 6 years, and moved them all to 1979 with that equipment, training, rules, refs, etc. then Steph would drop way down the rankings. Not that he wouldn't be above average as a guard, but maybe All-Star or occasional All-NBA type without the 3 pointer.

Oh. Okay, in that context I definitely disagree with you. I think Steph would shine as a result of his shooting ability. He's literally the greatest shooter we've ever seen, coupled to good playmaking, underrated on-ball ability and outstanding off-ball action the likes of Ray-Ray and Reggie.

"maybe All-Star" or "occasional All-NBA" seem like really significant underrating to me.

[penbeast0]

What I was thinking he meant was that if we took all the players from 2015-2021, ie. the league over the last 6 years, and moved them all to 1979 with that equipment, training, rules, refs, etc. then Steph would drop way down the rankings. Not that he wouldn't be above average as a guard, but maybe All-Star or occasional All-NBA type without the 3 pointer.

Oh. Okay, in that context I definitely disagree with you. I think Steph would shine as a result of his shooting ability. He's literally the greatest shooter we've ever seen, coupled to good playmaking, underrated on-ball ability and outstanding off-ball action the likes of Ray-Ray and Reggie.

"maybe All-Star" or "occasional All-NBA" seem like really significant underrating to me.

Not my post or comp. I was trying to explain the one you were writing about from a different, possibly wrong, perspective.

[tsherkin]

Not my post or comp. I was trying to explain the one you were writing about from a different, possibly wrong, perspective.

Oh, I see; fair enough. That said, the only thing the OP offered was that Steph was launched into 1979 with a full offseason, training camp and preseason, so I only looked at him and none of the other contemporary players, since such wasn't mentioned at all. If there was a subsequent post which changed that, I didn't see it, but none of the OP seemed to indicate otherwise to me, hence my reply.

[EmpireFalls]

What I will say is that if you transported the 2015-2021 NBA to 1979 he would never even be close to the best player under those rules. The 3 point line is critical to his success.

....

What I was thinking he meant was that if we took all the players from 2015-2021, ie. the league over the last 6 years, and moved them all to 1979 with that equipment, training, rules, refs, etc. then Steph would drop way down the rankings. Not that he wouldn't be above average as a guard, but maybe All-Star or occasional All-NBA type without the 3 pointer.

Not sure I'm right, but that's the interpretation I took which would be a bit more interesting than the normal time machine one player bit.

Yes, this is what I meant. That if you take the 2016 NBA in which Steph Curry was the best player and transport it back to 1979, there would be a few players from his own era who would be more effective. LeBron, Durant, Kawhi to name 3.

Reasoning is basically that any case for Steph Curry to be the best player in any version of the NBA is heavily weighted towards offensive threat, specifically 3 point efficiency and floor spacing. His defensive value is minimal compared to larger players so he needs to essentially be untouchable offensively to stand a chance of “best player”.

For Curry, removing the 3 point line is like cutting off Samson’s hair or exposing Superman to Kryptonite.

Without the 3 point line he would still be a very effective player of course, but his entire superpower is derived from his efficiency from 3 as well as the ability to stretch the floor and create space for his teammates.

[tsherkin]

....

What I was thinking he meant was that if we took all the players from 2015-2021, ie. the league over the last 6 years, and moved them all to 1979 with that equipment, training, rules, refs, etc. then Steph would drop way down the rankings. Not that he wouldn't be above average as a guard, but maybe All-Star or occasional All-NBA type without the 3 pointer.

Not sure I'm right, but that's the interpretation I took which would be a bit more interesting than the normal time machine one player bit.

Yes, this is what I meant. That if you take the 2016 NBA in which Steph Curry was the best player and transport it back to 1979, there would be a few players from his own era who would be more effective. LeBron, Durant, Kawhi to name 3.

Reasoning is basically that any case for Steph Curry to be the best player in any version of the NBA is heavily weighted towards offensive threat, specifically 3 point efficiency and floor spacing. His defensive value is minimal compared to larger players so he needs to essentially be untouchable offensively to stand a chance of “best player”.

For Curry, removing the 3 point line is like cutting off Samson’s hair or exposing Superman to Kryptonite.

Without the 3 point line he would still be a very effective player of course, but his entire superpower is derived from his efficiency from 3 as well as the ability to stretch the floor and create space for his teammates.

I stand corrected on your intent, with acknowledgement to penbeast as well

Lebron, Kawhi and KD would all see reduced efficiency as well, of course, though clearly a much smaller change. Steph's apex impact in 2016 was definitely from high-volume, efficient 3pt shooting like we'd never seen.

[Colbinii]

With his current knowledge, probably #1. Definitely Top 3.

[Redmoon]

Easily a top 5 player in the league potentially better. Lack of 3 point shot is a huge loss for him. Honestly, I just assume he'd be a Jerry West + type guy? Teams will adjust and defend him much closer, probably doubles, def hard fouls in the paint. Curry will have his own adjustments to make though in terms of initiating contact, dribbling rules, and travels.

His impact might be even bigger in terms of accelerating league talent and skills too. Players will pick up skills from him and learn his tendencies, the next generation of kids will all try to emulate him. League wide shooting forms will change and evolve much faster as well. No more weird looking 2 motion shot forms. This hypothetical league in 1990 will look very different from irl historical 1990.

[penbeast0]

Easily a top 5 player in the league potentially better. Lack of 3 point shot is a huge loss for him. Honestly, I just assume he'd be a Jerry West + type guy? Teams will adjust and defend him much closer, probably doubles, def hard fouls in the paint. Curry will have his own adjustments to make though in terms of initiating contact, dribbling rules, and travels.

His impact might be even bigger in terms of accelerating league talent and skills too. Players will pick up skills from him and learn his tendencies, the next generation of kids will all try to emulate him. League wide shooting forms will change and evolve much faster as well. No more weird looking 2 motion shot forms. This hypothetical league in 1990 will look very different from irl historical 1990.

I don't think Curry has the finishing, the foul draw, or the defense of a Jerry West though he's an even better outside shooter and his off ball movement action is possibly GOAT.