RealGM

They both started the season great. In retrospect, who do you think is the better 2022 draft prospect? Chet Holmgren or Paolo Banchero

Chet is probably the better basketball player in a vacuum, however I can see the appeal of Banchero to plenty of team situations as far as "redraft" scenario goes. The way it actually went is one of the scenarios where both players would be worse in each others shoes.

Paolo is the better #1 and Chet is the better supporting star. I'd rather take a bet at Paolo, but he has to prove himself in the playoffs. Paolo's scoring and bigman instincts right now are top notch, too, with a recent 50 point performance and threatening top 10 in the league.

For me Chet is more versatile but the team with with the #1 pick is normally looking for #1 scoring option and i think Paolo is better that. He can create his own shot better than Chet.

I prefer Paolo if he can face the Indiana Pacers 82 games per season.

Otherwise I prefer the much better player--Chet Holmgren.

Chet

It's arguable that Chet that is a better offensive option on a competitive team with his floor spacing. The defense handily swings things in his favor currently and moving forward. Seriously, completely ignore the defensive side of the floor where Chet garners more of his value. Simply look at the offensive value that both Chet and Paolo generated last season.

Chet

Estimated Offensive Raptor: 0.1
Time Decay O-RAPM: 1.5
O-LEBRON:0.4
O-MAMBA: 2.7
O-EPM: 1.3

Paolo

Estimated Offensive Raptor: 0
Time-Decay ORAPM: -0.6
O-LEBRON: 0.6
O-MAMBA: 1.1
O-EPM: 0.1

In the general all-in-one metrics family, Chet generally graded out as a better offensive player. Totally different contexts they both were operating in, yes, but also closer to the ideal situations you would like both to be in, to maximize their impacts. Chet is able to play off stronger creators, stretch the floor, provide some vertical spacing, and occasional creation of his own. However, he is not even the #2 creator for his team. Paolo was empowered to be a #1, however he struggles with efficiency, and is ball-dominant with his face-up game, and is not much of a spacer. I am not seeing a ton in his game that would benefit from synergies with better teammates so that his offensive impact would be multiple tiers more valuable than shown. Rather, he more so is kind of a Carmelo Anthony style player, that is built to floor-raise weaker offensive squads with his 1 v 1 ability. I do think Paolo's passing is promising, but it is still very stop and hold with him being not the most fluid ball mover or quickest decision-maker.

If both are in close to ideal situations for their skillsets, and Chet provided more impact with better teammates (generally hard to do because of offensive player redundancies), then perhaps there is an argument that Chet is the more ideal offensive player to have in terms of championship odds. Paolo based on his play from last year, is not a good enough floor raiser to be the #1 or #2 on a championship.

But even if you leaned Paolo>Chet now for offense, there is a galaxy between them defensively. Going forward, I could see how Paolo could potentially work himself to being better offensively than Chet, but I am not sure it will be convincing enough to clear the chasm on defensive. Chet is arguably generational on defense, while Paolo is merely fine with ability to be a good man defender.

A better comparison would probably be Holmgren vs Wemby

Would love to revisit this once we have a real sample of games from Banchero this year. He had a brilliant performance against a poor defense but we need to see if he'll maintain anything like this over a larger stretch of games. One game doesn't tell much. The potential is certainly there, though.

Chet, for his part, is doing the 23/11/3 thing over the same stretch, while leading the league in BPG and rocking 66% TS (+9% rTS).

WITH the 50-point game, Banchero is posting about 29/9/6 on 59% TS (+2% rTS) and isn't anything like the same level of defender.

So for this very brief snapshot in time, it's interesting.

Chet, of course, was about a 16 ppg guy on 63% TS last year, so he's not likely to regress too much. Though that block rate may come down.

Banchero, even with that Herculean single game, has otherwise not really been separating himself in his primary function as a volume scorer. Yet. The season is long, this could be a break-out year.

As ever, there's nothing really to say at this point of the season. Even a shift to +2% rTS would be a big deal for Banchero, though, who has been below league average in both of his seasons so far. That would be a big deal for the Magic, and also an excellent sign for his future development. And for Chet's part, it's worth noting that over 71% of his FGM are assisted. He isn't filling the same kind of role as Banchero, so it shouldn't surprise that he's more efficient. And SGA is their focal initiator; even while he struggles to start the season, that takes a lot of pressure off of Chet, a boon which Paolo is not enjoying in Orlando.

So we need more time.

Whichever I think will stay healthier; that was the question mark with Holmgren at the draft if I remember.

penbeast0 wrote:Whichever I think will stay healthier; that was the question mark with Holmgren at the draft if I remember.

Funny that Banchero is the first of them to have a significant injury since started playing. Holmgren missed a whole year after being drafted though