New Impact Metric: MAMBA
Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2024 8:05 pm
I’m sure some people here are already aware of this (and the author may well be a poster here for all I know), but there’s an interesting new impact metric that was released a few months ago, called MAMBA.
There is an initial write up of the methodology and general discussion of the metric here: https://www.teemohoop.com/mamba/Blog%20Post%20Title%20One-mm8gk-cy9wh. That describes the original version of the metric, but the metric was updated, and a description of the updates can be found here: https://www.teemohoop.com/mamba/mamba-reworked-updated#Ser.
I’ll let the description of the metric speak for itself rather than trying to paraphrase what the above two links provide regarding the methodology. The main description of the methodology is in the initial write up, but obviously updates/changes were made for the updated version. Based on the write-up, the updated version sounds like it was changed in part to deal with results the author thought seemed wrong, including changes made in order to improve the standing of LeBron and Giannis—who the author felt the original version had underrated. In any event, in both write-ups, the author details how this metric outperforms both EPM and LEBRON in out-of-sample years.
The results of the updated version can be found here: https://timotaij.github.io/LepookTable/
Here is a list of the top 10 in each season:
2014-15
1. Stephen Curry: 11.067
2. Chris Paul: 9.71
3. LeBron James: 9.239
4. James Harden: 8.473
5. George Hill: 8.261
6. Kevin Durant: 8.043
7. Anthony Davis: 8.009
8. Kawhi Leonard: 7.564
9. Russell Westbrook: 7.285
10. Kyle Lowry: 6.565
2015-16
1. Stephen Curry: 12.404
2. LeBron James: 10.385
3. Kawhi Leonard: 9.748
4. Chris Paul: 9.078
5. Russell Westbrook: 8.617
6. Kevin Durant: 8.268
7. Kyle Lowry: 7.776
8. Draymond Green: 7.706
9. James Harden: 6.967
10. Ricky Rubio: 6.556
2016-17
1. LeBron James: 10.174
2. Stephen Curry: 10.034
3. Chris Paul: 9.693
4. Kawhi Leonard: 9.372
5. Kyle Lowry: 8.907
6. Russell Westbrook: 8.533
7. Jimmy Butler: 7.845
8. James Harden: 7.588
9. Kevin Durant: 7.536
10. Draymond Green: 7.279
2017-18
1. Stephen Curry: 10.167
2. LeBron James: 8.825
3. Chris Paul: 8.573
4. James Harden: 8.290
5. Kyle Lowry: 8.265
6. Kemba Walker: 8.022
7. Kawhi Leonard: 7.855
8. Damian Lillard: 7.699
9. Anthony Davis: 7.438
10. Jimmy Butler: 7.350
2018-19
1. James Harden: 9.871
2. Stephen Curry: 9.050
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8.626
4. Paul George: 8.205
5. Anthony Davis: 8.005
6. LeBron James: 7.653
7. Damian Lillard: 7.601
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.304
9. Joel Embiid: 7.127
10. Kyle Lowry: 7.063
2019-20
1. James Harden: 10.650
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 10.181
3. LeBron James: 9.295
4. Damian Lillard: 9.060
5. Kawhi Leonard: 8.519
6. Anthony Davis: 7.244
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 6.985
8. Jimmy Butler: 6.936
9. Paul George: 6.916
10. Chris Paul: 6.669
2020-21
1. Stephen Curry: 9.510
2. LeBron James: 9.289
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 9.177
4. Kawhi Leonard: 9.104
5. Nikola Jokic: 8.218
6. Kevin Durant: 8.086
7. Jimmy Butler: 8.026
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.997
9. Damian Lillard: 7.974
10. James Harden: 7.767
2021-22
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.891
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 9.401
3. Stephen Curry: 8.949
4. LeBron James: 8.835
5. Kevin Durant: 8.374
6. Jayson Tatum: 8.327
7. Joel Embiid: 7.976
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.92
9. Jrue Holiday: 6.928
10. Kyrie Irving: 6.678
2022-23
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.642
2. Kawhi Leonard: 8.657
3. Joel Embiid: 8.624
4. Damian Lillard: 8.313
5. Stephen Curry: 8.257
6. Kevin Durant: 8.256
7. Jimmy Butler: 7.877
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 7.715
9. Jayson Tatum: 7.712
10. LeBron James: 7.621
2023-24
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.199
2. Joel Embiid: 10.181
3. Shaq Gilgeous-Alexander: 9.663
4. Luka Doncic: 9.615
5. LeBron James: 8.543
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8.464
7. Jalen Brunson: 8.107
8. Donovan Mitchell: 7.958
9. Paul George: 7.777
10. Kawhi Leonard: 7.656
Just so people are aware, the website https://www.nbarapm.com/ seems to include MAMBA rankings from the original version of the model. So, for instance, that website shows LeBron ranking 6th, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 13th, and 10th in MAMBA (in chronological order starting at 2015), instead of 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 10th, and 5th. As noted above and in the update write-up, that reflects the updated version of the model making changes to improve LeBron’s standing. There are, of course, subtle changes abound for other players as well, as we’d expect for an updated model. So if you want to see what the original model said too, you can find that output on the nbarapm website (at least for now—I assume eventually this will get updated there).
Overall, looking at this data, we unsurprisingly have the usual suspects near the top of these rankings. As with most impact data during this timeframe, Steph Curry generally comes out looking the best, until Jokic comes to the fore in the last few years. Like with RAPTOR, Harden did have a period in 2019 and 2020 where he’s at the top too. LeBron looks consistently good, of course. The model also definitely likes Kyle Lowry a lot.
There is an initial write up of the methodology and general discussion of the metric here: https://www.teemohoop.com/mamba/Blog%20Post%20Title%20One-mm8gk-cy9wh. That describes the original version of the metric, but the metric was updated, and a description of the updates can be found here: https://www.teemohoop.com/mamba/mamba-reworked-updated#Ser.
I’ll let the description of the metric speak for itself rather than trying to paraphrase what the above two links provide regarding the methodology. The main description of the methodology is in the initial write up, but obviously updates/changes were made for the updated version. Based on the write-up, the updated version sounds like it was changed in part to deal with results the author thought seemed wrong, including changes made in order to improve the standing of LeBron and Giannis—who the author felt the original version had underrated. In any event, in both write-ups, the author details how this metric outperforms both EPM and LEBRON in out-of-sample years.
The results of the updated version can be found here: https://timotaij.github.io/LepookTable/
Here is a list of the top 10 in each season:
2014-15
1. Stephen Curry: 11.067
2. Chris Paul: 9.71
3. LeBron James: 9.239
4. James Harden: 8.473
5. George Hill: 8.261
6. Kevin Durant: 8.043
7. Anthony Davis: 8.009
8. Kawhi Leonard: 7.564
9. Russell Westbrook: 7.285
10. Kyle Lowry: 6.565
2015-16
1. Stephen Curry: 12.404
2. LeBron James: 10.385
3. Kawhi Leonard: 9.748
4. Chris Paul: 9.078
5. Russell Westbrook: 8.617
6. Kevin Durant: 8.268
7. Kyle Lowry: 7.776
8. Draymond Green: 7.706
9. James Harden: 6.967
10. Ricky Rubio: 6.556
2016-17
1. LeBron James: 10.174
2. Stephen Curry: 10.034
3. Chris Paul: 9.693
4. Kawhi Leonard: 9.372
5. Kyle Lowry: 8.907
6. Russell Westbrook: 8.533
7. Jimmy Butler: 7.845
8. James Harden: 7.588
9. Kevin Durant: 7.536
10. Draymond Green: 7.279
2017-18
1. Stephen Curry: 10.167
2. LeBron James: 8.825
3. Chris Paul: 8.573
4. James Harden: 8.290
5. Kyle Lowry: 8.265
6. Kemba Walker: 8.022
7. Kawhi Leonard: 7.855
8. Damian Lillard: 7.699
9. Anthony Davis: 7.438
10. Jimmy Butler: 7.350
2018-19
1. James Harden: 9.871
2. Stephen Curry: 9.050
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8.626
4. Paul George: 8.205
5. Anthony Davis: 8.005
6. LeBron James: 7.653
7. Damian Lillard: 7.601
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.304
9. Joel Embiid: 7.127
10. Kyle Lowry: 7.063
2019-20
1. James Harden: 10.650
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 10.181
3. LeBron James: 9.295
4. Damian Lillard: 9.060
5. Kawhi Leonard: 8.519
6. Anthony Davis: 7.244
7. Karl-Anthony Towns: 6.985
8. Jimmy Butler: 6.936
9. Paul George: 6.916
10. Chris Paul: 6.669
2020-21
1. Stephen Curry: 9.510
2. LeBron James: 9.289
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 9.177
4. Kawhi Leonard: 9.104
5. Nikola Jokic: 8.218
6. Kevin Durant: 8.086
7. Jimmy Butler: 8.026
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.997
9. Damian Lillard: 7.974
10. James Harden: 7.767
2021-22
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.891
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 9.401
3. Stephen Curry: 8.949
4. LeBron James: 8.835
5. Kevin Durant: 8.374
6. Jayson Tatum: 8.327
7. Joel Embiid: 7.976
8. Rudy Gobert: 7.92
9. Jrue Holiday: 6.928
10. Kyrie Irving: 6.678
2022-23
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.642
2. Kawhi Leonard: 8.657
3. Joel Embiid: 8.624
4. Damian Lillard: 8.313
5. Stephen Curry: 8.257
6. Kevin Durant: 8.256
7. Jimmy Butler: 7.877
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 7.715
9. Jayson Tatum: 7.712
10. LeBron James: 7.621
2023-24
1. Nikola Jokic: 10.199
2. Joel Embiid: 10.181
3. Shaq Gilgeous-Alexander: 9.663
4. Luka Doncic: 9.615
5. LeBron James: 8.543
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8.464
7. Jalen Brunson: 8.107
8. Donovan Mitchell: 7.958
9. Paul George: 7.777
10. Kawhi Leonard: 7.656
Just so people are aware, the website https://www.nbarapm.com/ seems to include MAMBA rankings from the original version of the model. So, for instance, that website shows LeBron ranking 6th, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 13th, and 10th in MAMBA (in chronological order starting at 2015), instead of 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 10th, and 5th. As noted above and in the update write-up, that reflects the updated version of the model making changes to improve LeBron’s standing. There are, of course, subtle changes abound for other players as well, as we’d expect for an updated model. So if you want to see what the original model said too, you can find that output on the nbarapm website (at least for now—I assume eventually this will get updated there).
Overall, looking at this data, we unsurprisingly have the usual suspects near the top of these rankings. As with most impact data during this timeframe, Steph Curry generally comes out looking the best, until Jokic comes to the fore in the last few years. Like with RAPTOR, Harden did have a period in 2019 and 2020 where he’s at the top too. LeBron looks consistently good, of course. The model also definitely likes Kyle Lowry a lot.