RealGM

Try to estimate the top 10 guys in the league in 2029-30, by order.

(I'll try to remember to) Bump it again 5 years from now.

Already established as top ~10 talents: Wemby, Shai, Luka, Jokic, Tatum… possibly Giannis still… maybe Edwards.

Up-and-coming: Chet, a young point guard.

Not in the league: Flagg, TBD.

Gave eleven possibilities there because a) the top ten is rarely a set list, and b) odds are someone “top ten” is disqualified by injury (Giannis the most likely because of age and prior history).

Putting my dollar down.

Wembanyama. Age 26

Luka. Age 30

Tatum. Age 31

SGA. Age 31

Amen Thompson. Age 27

Lamelo. Age 28

Cade. Age 28

Haliburton. Age 29

Chet. Age 27

Flagg. Age 24

HM: Ant, Mobley, Maxey, Paolo/Franz, J Williams,

Fairly confident Wemby Jokic SGA and Flagg will be top by 2030 (although 2030 might be Jokic’s last year as a top 5 player

The 5th id say would be between like Luka Tatum maybe ant or Zion and then there’s prolly some guys not in college yet that could be up there like Dyabantsa and Cam Boozer

Shai, jokic, wembayama, luka as safe bets

After that i would put money on : Chet, amen, tatum, edwards and my dark horse pick darius garland

Potential guys to fill top 10 are plenty imo: jalen williams, cade, haliburton, healthy zion, mobley, jaren, morant, etc

Non yet nba players like flagg or dybantsa i would wait a bit more on before taking it for granted they will be top 10 but they clearly could become just that

Feel confident on: Shai, Luka, Victor, Tatum

Less confidence but fate share still due to age and game: Jokic

Less confidence due to game: Giannis (age too), Zion

Young stars I think will make the leap: Mobley, Chet, Cade (HMs to Ant, Amen, Jaren)

The next gen: Darryn Peterson, Cooper Flagg, Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa

So that gets to a list of 17 players. Choosing 10 and narrowing then (esp from a projection standpoint) is tough from here

No one thinks LeBron? He'll still be under 50.

FWIW here were the 10 best players 5 years ago
-Harden
-Giannis
-LeBron
-Kawhi
-Dame
-AD
-Jokic
-CP3
-Gobert
-Tatum

Out of these, 5-6 of them are still top 10 players

Lillard is not better than Lebron, and Kawhi barely exists anymore.

In no order:

Wembaynama (fingers crossed on bloodclots)
Shai
Tatum
Edwards
Luka
Flagg
Darryn Peterson
Jokic if still playing
Mobley
One of Zion/LaMelo/Haliburton as a wildcard

Special_Puppy wrote:FWIW here were the 10 best players 5 years ago
-Harden
-Giannis
-LeBron
-Kawhi
-Dame
-AD
-Jokic
-CP3
-Gobert
-Tatum

Out of these, 5-6 of them are still top 10 players

Who are the 5-6?

rk2023 wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:FWIW here were the 10 best players 5 years ago
-Harden
-Giannis
-LeBron
-Kawhi
-Dame
-AD
-Jokic
-CP3
-Gobert
-Tatum

Out of these, 5-6 of them are still top 10 players

Who are the 5-6?

Before editing, he had Jokic, Giannis, Tatum (all safe), AD, Kawhi, and potentially Lillard. And even if we say Steph and Durant did not qualify because of their injuries in 2020 — even though both, like Lebron, have an easier claim to still being top ten than Lillard does — Butler is a baffling exclusion.

Special_Puppy wrote:FWIW here were the 10 best players 5 years ago
-Harden
-Giannis
-LeBron
-Kawhi
-Dame
-AD
-Jokic
-CP3
-Gobert
-Tatum

Out of these, 5-6 of them are still top 10 players

Gobert > Curry

facts

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:FWIW here were the 10 best players 5 years ago
-Harden
-Giannis
-LeBron
-Kawhi
-Dame
-AD
-Jokic
-CP3
-Gobert
-Tatum

Out of these, 5-6 of them are still top 10 players

Gobert > Curry

facts

Curry was injured in 2020. That’s why KD wasn’t here as well

ceoofkobefans wrote:Fairly confident Wemby Jokic SGA and Flagg will be top by 2030 (although 2030 might be Jokic’s last year as a top 5 player

The 5th id say would be between like Luka Tatum maybe ant or Zion and then there’s prolly some guys not in college yet that could be up there like Dyabantsa and Cam Boozer

What am I missing about Flagg?

He just turned 18 and is already the best age 20 or under basketball player in the world. He is not quite on the level of prospects like Wemby or Lebron, but he is at worst a Chet level prospect (featuring in several projected top tens here).

I don't feel that strongly about Chet being a perennial top 10 guy. I would guess he'll be more like a Pau type guy who might be top 10 a couple times but not really a given he will be in his prime years.

In no particular order (and a little off the cuff), I'll go....

SGA
Jokic
Luka
Wemby
Tatum
Haliburton
Cooper Flagg
Anthony Edwards

^^^Those feel like relatively safe picks (although obv I'm speculating on Flagg; he looks awfully good for 19, though....kinda like a Paul George with better passing acumen looks like his potential ceiling (maybe better finishing through contact, too??? He looks like he has terrific body control, and good with either hand)).
Also ANT has been a bit disappointing this year (for all the hype he'd built around him last season). I'll still gamble and say he'll improve.

Now I need two more. I'll suggest two of:

Chet Holmgren (leaning toward him, if he stays healthy)
Evan Mobley
Jalen Williams
[insert name of prospect who's not yet on my/our radar(s)]
EDIT: add in Giannis as a maybe. I don't think his game is gonna age terrifically, so he may have declined a lot in five years. But he's worth an HM, at least.
EDIT2: I'm still not sold on him, but as young as he is I suppose Cade needs a mention. He might be there in five years.