We saw a finals win last time
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2449966
Now we watch another one
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Like the last game we tracked, this match has also been tracked before by one Djoker
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2433040
As the only uninterrupted footage I found on youtube for the 2016 finals was game for the first half, that’s what we’ll track.
Here are the countables we’re going to use:
Spoiler:
There is ore grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the final numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 0:35
Lebron picks up Draymond and Draymond passess it off to Steph giving Lebron his first IA (1). Draymond sets a screen to get Klay some separation and receives it back. Lebron puts his arms up and then jumps as Draymond bounces it to Ezeli who attempts and misses a jumper over Love.
(Lebron - 1 PPD)
.
Possession 2 - 1:08
Draymond throws the ball early from the back-court and gets it back outside the key where Lebron picks him up. Draymond throws it to Klay who drives. As Klay drives, Lebron follows Draymond and instructs Love to intercept Thompson. Lebron then moves to cover Klay potentially finding Barnes at the basket only for Klay to kick it back out.to Draymond. Draymond fakes a pass to Barnes and Lebron moves to cover. With James out of the way, Draymond drives and throws it to Ezeli who bounces the ball off the rim. Lebron beats out Steph and Draymond for the loose ball at the key securing the stop for Cleveland.
(Lebron - 2 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 3 - 1:37
Lebron hangs with Draymond at the elbow as Steph airballs from deep. Klay gets the rebound and the ball finds itself to Draymond who Lebron picks up. Draymond passes it off and then screens Curry’s defender prompting Lebron to switch onto Steph, unaware his teammate has nearly fallen sticking with Steph. An unmarked Draymond cuts inside, receives the ball from Ezeli, and gets an easy dunk.
Possession 4 - 2:22
Steph leads a break and Lebron is briefly the last line of defense ahead of a vacant paint as he pricks Steph up at the key. Steph throws it to Draymond. Draymond finds Ezeli under the rim and Ezeli is fouled. On the inbound Barnes and Green do a give-and-go after which Barnes hits a three to punish the Cavs for sagging off.
Possession 5 - 3:10
The ball gets to klay who quickly passes it off to Draymond. Lebron turns thinking Klay hasn’t passed it yet, notices the ball isn’t with him, spins around trying to see who Klay passed it to and then sees it in Iggy’s hands (Dray threw it as Lebron was spinning) and rushes to contest the 3. Iggy throws it back to Draymond who shoots and makes the three-pointer. Think that would count as ineffective.
Possession 6 - 3:40
Lebron is the furthest back as Klay breaks and then moves towards Barnes. He moves to help on Klay as he shoots and Klay airballs and Love secures the rebound.
Possession 7 - 4:09
Lebron starts the possession on an island with Draymond in an otherwise vacated paint area. Draymond relocates to the perimeter pulling Lebron to the edge. Lebron then sees Ezeli drive and get stuffed by Thompson with Lebron picking up an easy board. Considering he spends half the possession as the only interior defender and the whole possession inside I think it would be inconsistent with previous tracking to not at least count him as a co-primary.
(Lebron - 1 PP)
Possession 8 - 4:40
Lebron starts on Green but then switches onto Steph after Curry sets a screen. He watches Barnes drive and miss and exploits two teammates distracting Klay to secure a board.
Possession 9 - 5:15
Lebron spends the possession by the paint and near the sideline watching Draymond. Klay misses his jumper and Thompson beats out Ezeli allowing Lebron to get another easy rebound with Draymond already headed the other way.
Possession 10 - 5:40
Draymond brings the ball up and Lebron picks him up before Kerr calls a timeout. Draymond gets the ball off the inbound and Lebron picks him up again. Draymond throws it to Klay and then gets it back with Lebron on him again. Then Draymond gives the rock to Steph who Lebron switches on but doesn’t contest. Steph converts.
(Lebron - 3 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 11 - 7:27
Lebron starts the possession the furthest back before coming out by the edge of the paint as he keeps watch of Klay. Barnes shoots and Lebron picks up the rebound with no Warriors inside to fight for the rebound. Lebron, mostly by default, is considered a co-primary. Pretty cheap but consistent with what’s been counted before.
(Lebron - 2 PP)
Possession 12 - 8:14
Lebron starts the possession as the only defender with a foot in an otherwise empty paint and then comes out a bit to defend Draymond on the post. Richard Jefferson files in behind and Draymond tries to bounce it to Iggy but Iggy is pressured into a turnover by Thompson.
(Lebron - 3 PP)
Possession 13 - 9:05
Lebron is basically uninvolved as Klay hits a jumper.
Possession 14 - 9:33
It’s a short possession but Lebron is the furthest back the whole time and the only Cavalier to set foot in the paint or near the basket, following Iggy and delaying a potential Steph connection. Steph promptly turns it over.
(Lebron - 4 PP)
Possession 15 - 9:49
Lebron jogs backwards watching Steph bring it up and then sticks to marking Kyrie. Curry blows by Kyrie and misses a jumper. Lebron gets an easy rebound with the Warriors again not sending anyone to challenge inside.
Possession 16 - 10:11
Lebron picks up Draymond. Draymond gives it to Klay and Lebron switches but doesn’t contest. Klay drains the open jumper.
(Lebron - 4 PPD, 2 IPPD)
Possession 17 - 10:58
Lebron is on Draymond as he briefly holds the ball. He goes inside and watches Barnes miss a jumper.
Possession 18 - 11:17
Flanks Steph in the backcourt as Jefferson harasses him. Watches Barnes miss a layup.
Possession 19 - 12:07
Iggy brings the ball up and Lebron moves parallel to him from a distance. Lebron gets another IA (2) as Iggy finds Steph on the side with 4 Cleveland defenders. This pays off with Lebron watching from the other side as Steph gets himself open and hits a three from the corner.
Possession 20 - 12:43
Lebron starts the possession the furthest back and Love fouls as his teammates catch-up.
(Lebron is subbed out)
(Lebron comes back in at 16:29)
Possession 21 - 16:29
Love wins a contested board off a missed free-throw.
Possession 22 - 18:46
Steph runs out of time and the quarter ends.
Possession 23 - 19:40
Lebron picks up Speights who swings it to Draymond who swings it to Livingston who hits a contested jumper.
Possession 24 - 20:11
Lebron is the last Cavalier to get back and watches Shumpert kick the ball out of bounds. He’s Cleveland’s sole paint-defender on the inbound but the possession quickly ends with an offensive foul.
Possession 25 - 21:14
Lebron watches Livingston post-up on Mo Williams and miss a jumper.
Possession 26 - 21:34
Lebron follows Iggy and ends up hanging near the basket as Thompson fouls. On the inbound Lebron marks Klay on the perimeter as the other Cavs, primarily Thompson, thwart a Draymond Drive.
Possession 27 - 22:45
Lebron chases Klay from behind as he stops short of Shumpert and launches a three. Lebron rushes to the paint for a rebound and Speights charges back to grab the ball only to end up out of bounds. The Warriors avoid a turnover with a loose-ball foul and Lebron mans the paint after the inbound perched on Speights near the basket. Livingston blows by Jefferson, misses the open jumper, and then puts back his own shot.
(Lebron - 5 PP)
Possession 28 - 23:41
Lebron again is the Cavalier starting the furthest back as Draymond leads the break. Draymond charges past Lebron’s teammates and tries to find Iggy but Lebron intercepts, neutering the 2 v 1.
(Lebron - 6 PP, 1 EPP)
Possession 29 - 24:00
Lebron spends the possession on Speights starting at the top of the free-throw line and then ending up on an island watching the Warriors Center under the basket as Draymond hits a three.
(Lebron - 7 PP)
Possession 30 - 25:11
Lebron starts on the free-throw line with the paint vacated. He tells shumpert to follow Livingston, ventures out, closing passing lane between Draymond and Speights, and then seals off Speights at the basket to secure a rebound off a Green miss.
(Lebron - 8 PP, 2 EPP)
Possession 31 - 25:41
Draymond brings the ball up and Lebron picks him up at the key. He slides with Green near the sideline and Green throws a bounce-pass that finds Iggy mid-post. Iggy bounces it to Speights who fires a jumper. Lebron goes inside to fight Iggy for the rebound but Kyrie pegs the ball out of bounds. Lebron marks Dray as he receives the inbound. Dray then finds Klay who shoots and misses.
(Lebron - 5 PPD)
Possession 32 - 28:25
Lebron picks up Draymond and Draymond throws it to Steph. With Love switching onto Barnes Lebron is supposed to switch onto Steph as he drives but doesn’t, leading to a layup and an and-1 as Shumpert helplessly chases Curry by himself and Irving pointlessly fouls. Ineffective.
Possession 33 - 30:00
Love takes the ball off Livingston’s leg as Lebron runs back, ending the possession early.
Possession 34 - 30:21
Lebron meets Draymond at the top of the key with the paint vacated behind him. Draymond throws the ball to Klay whose drive is intercepted by James. Klay then kicks it out to Draymond who hits a three.
(Lebron - 9 PP)
Possession 35 - 31:22
Lebron starts the possession as the only Cavalier in the paint as he tracks Draymond and comes further inside as Klay shoots and misses a three. Love comes in and seals off Varejao allowing Shumpert to secure the rebound.
(Lebron - 10 PP)
Possession 36 - 31:50
Steph breaks and Lebron shadows him from the side shortly after he crosses half-court. With Draymond forcing Kyrie out of the way Steph goes up for a seemingly open layup only for Lebron to swat the ball out of bounds. Lebron picks up Draymond as he receives the inbound. Love and JR combine to thwart Klay’s drive. Klay gets the ball again in the corner and Steph claps loudly telling Klay and Lebron he wants the ball. Klay throws it to Steph at the elbow but Lebron is already there to contest, having brushed aside a screen from Varejoa to challenge the unanimous MVP. Steph misses and Varekoa, having gone far from the paint to try and stop Lebron arrives too late to challenge for the extra possession. Think Lebron did enough to be considered a co-primary paint and perimeter defender here (though so did JR). He was obviously effective in both roles.
(Lebron - 11 PP, 3 EPP, 6 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 37 - 33:12
Lebron starts the possession retreating to the free-throw line as Iggy posts up on Kyrie. Iggy looks to swing it to Draymond at the top of the key but Lebron moves to potentially intercept and Iggy seemingly commits to doing work in the post. Varejoa then blindsides Lebron with a screen and Iggy throws it to Draymond. Lebron contests late and Draymond makes another three-pointer.
(Lebron - 7 PPD, 3 IPPD)
Possession 38 - 34:32
Lebron picks up Draymond at the top of the key but is bumped by Steph. Lebron accepts the switch and chases Steph around. Steph draws Lebron into Shumpert effectively turning his rival into a screen-setter for Draymond. Shumpert gives up on chasing Green and goes inside to secure a potential rebound. Draymond, wide-open, swishes in another trey. Ineffective.
Possession 39 - 35:40
Draymond brings it up and Lebron, again, picks him up. Draymond waits for Iggy to come across before feeding him at the corner. Iggy then throws it ti Barbosa who drives to the basket and gets stuffed strong-side by James.
(Lebron - 12 PP, 4 EPP)
Possession 40 - 36:07
Lebron picks up Draymond at the top of the key. Lebron then collects another IA (3) as Draymond throws it to the more crowded side of the court, finding Klay. Kyrie rushes to contest and Klay misses with JR securing the rebound. Lebron gets a co-primary here by default.
(Lebron - 8 PPD)
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Lebron
Spoiler:
Perimeter Defense - Lebron
Spoiler:
During Lebron’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 12 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 4 and ineffective in 0. Lebron also was given 12 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 5 and ineffective in 5. Additionally, LBJ was given 3 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.3 PPs, 0.1 EPPs, 0.00 IPPs, 0.2 PPDs, 0.05 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.075 IAs.
Here is how Lebron did in other games using this system:
Spoiler:
And here is how non-Lebron players fared (note: IAs were not counted for the three games top10alltime tracked)
Spoiler:
So how does old Lebron look? Well by the numbers this is a better paint-protecting performance than his other two and if anything the numbers probably undersell the gap? Cavs chose to leave the paint empty a bunch, likely with Lebron in mind. Lebron also was generally spending more time per PP at or near the basket and Lebron had 3 separate possessions where he directly stopped the attack inside without another defender distracting the attacker for him. A massive caveat here is that Draymond and Speights make for an easier matchup inside than Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan. Lebron performs better in this situation but, based on what was tracked, I’d pick 09 Lebron as a paint-protector.
The trade-off is this was the worst perimeter performance from Lebron both by the numbers and by my eye. He was technically the Cavs POA guy like 07 and 09 but he was not picking up Draymond or whoever he was guarding as high up the floor, he left shots uncontested, and he wasn’t as active as a helper. That said, situationally, a red-hot Draymond and Steph probably presented a bigger challenge than Parker or Alston. Though, regardless, just going off what was tracked in their respective game 1s, I’m picking the 07 and 09 iteration as perimeter defenders if I was to transpose them in this specific context.
Overall, Lebron has pretty high usage looking like the Cavs primary paint-defender and potentially their primary POA guy(no idea if that would hold for perimiter overall) and he registered more effective plays than ineffective. Clears everything we’ve seen for guards both in terms of usage and efficacy though on the balance I’d say it’s significantly worse than either of the other Lebron games or the Hakeem one. It does have a big paint-advantage over Lebron’s 2007 game 1 performance but frankly I think the outlier IA count from the Spurs aggressively avoiding him outweighs that (especially considering alot of that avoidance was the Spurs avoiding driving against him inside).
It also does, by the numbers, look better than Kareem’s game 6 in 74 vs Boston though I have a feeling Kareem was graded on a harsher curve in terms of efficacy. I also suspect Kareem was higher usage in his PPs (and Lebron notches a couple cheap ones here tbf).
A little underwhelmed relative to the reputation that game 5-7 have gotten defensively though I'd expect the last 40-possessions to look better given the way the Warriors offense stalled.
Miscellaneous
There was also a meta-question that emerged regarding how to deal with partial possessions. On possession 20 had the possession ended when Lebron was subbed out he would have been considered the primary paint-guy by default and on the possession Lebron was subbed out he came at the end to watch free-throws being shot. I decided to just count them as if they were full possessions and use the whole possession to determine usage because I’m pretty sure that’s what I did for other guys but it’s a crack in this system.
Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately
If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:
Spoiler:
Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
Spoiler:
I tracked this game as it fit a request but now I’m interested in seeing how 2015 Lebron would fare here. I am planning to shift my focus back on Jordan soon (feel free to suggest games you consider his best) but if there are any specific games/series/seasons for some other player you want tracked you can say so below and I’ll take it into consideration.
