https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2451946
Now we watch a finals opener
Tim Duncan at his alleged peak against the New Jersey Nets. Let’s see how he looks.
Here are the countables we’re going to use:
Spoiler:
There is ore grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the final numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 1:17
Nets win the tip-off and break. Duncan seals off Martin at the basket as Kidd hits a jumper.
(Duncan - 1 PP)
.
Possession 2 - 2:12
Duncan falls back into the paint with Robinson and Kidd hits a jumper.
(Duncan - 2 PP)
Possession 3 - 2:57
Kidd outlets to Martin to start break. Martin gets stuffed strongside by Duncan
(Duncan - 3 PP, 1 EPP)
Possession 4 - 4:46
Duncan splits time inside and out, getting a weak IA with the ball-handler choosing to toss it to the more populous side of the floor after Duncan switches onto Martin (1). Possession ends with a clanked jumper.
Possession 5 - 5:14
Duncan intercepts a Kidd pass around half-court as the nearest defender to the basket offering both effective paint-protection and perimeter defense with the same move. Efficient.
(Duncan - 4 PP, 2 EPP, 1 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 6 - 5:40
Duncan spends almost as much of the possession in the paint as Robinson in addition to deterring an inside pass to Martin by the basket on an island and then offering cover at the basket as Robinson intercepts and funnels Jefferson out of bounds. On the inbound Duncan contests martin well and martin bricks.
(Duncan - 5 PP)
Possession 7 - 6:24
Robinson’s the clear primary inside. Duncan would count as the secondary in addition to closing a potential passing window as he switches off of Martin.
Possession 8 - 7:14
Duncan starts on Kenyon Martin who passes off the ball. Duncan spends the rest of the possession inside as SA’s last line. Kittle hits a pull up. He’s a co-primary here mostly by default.
(Duncan - 6 PP)
Possession 9 - 7:37
Duncan is the primary here spending most of the possession in the paint and stuffing Kittles strongside. Kittles gets the rebound of his shot and misses a floater. Duncan collects an easy board.
(Duncan - 7 PP, 3 EPP)
Possession 10 - 8:07
The Mavs break with Kidd trying to take advantage of Duncan being caught up court. Parker buys Duncan enough time to get back into the paint. The Mavs swing the ball to the opposite elbow and Duncan follows, going around Martin, to put extra pressure on the ball-handler (couldn’t make out who). Duncan then switches onto Kenyon and collects a weak IA as the ball is thrown to Richard Jefferson (2). RJ hits the jumper.
Possession 11 - 8:50
Duncan picks up Collins at the free-throw line and spends the rest of the possession inside, including a significant chunk as the Spurs only paint defender. Martin shoots a jumper and Duncan seals off Collins to secure the board.
(Duncan - 8 PP, 4 EPP)
Possession 12 - 9:10
Duncan jogs back unaware Ginobli is charging his direction and gets spun around as a co-primary outside. Luckily his teammates cover and Duncan grabs an easy rebound.
(Duncan - 2 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 13 - 10:10
Duncan spends the possession at or by the paint venturing out to pressure Kidd to give up the ball and then helping on Williams as he posts up prompting a turn around floater. It misses and Duncan gets yet another easy board.
(Duncan - 9 PP, 4 EPP)
Possession 14 - 10:54
Duncan is too far ahead to help on the break but his teammates have things covered.
Possession 15 - 11:10
Basically the same thing.
Possession 16 - 11:27
Duncan backs into the paint and then moves to help Bowen who immediately fouls. On the inbound Duncan is there to meet Aaoron Williams who catches it inside and Collins throws it to Kidd who shoots a jumper. Duncan preps to seal off Collins for the board but Martin bumps him. Collins is unable to capitalise and a Spur rolls Duncan the ball.
(Duncan -10 PP)
Possession 17 - 14:04
Duncan starts the possession watching Williams low-post. Duncan then helps on a Rodgers post-up only to get backdoored by Martin.
(Duncan - 11 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 18 - 14:45
Duncan watches Williams low-post again and then stuffs Harris strongside. The broadcast skips over what happens next but the announcer tells us Martin missed a jumper.
(Duncan - 12 PP, 5 EPP)
Possession 19 - 16:12
Duncan spends the possession near the basket. He watches rogers hit a jumper.
(Duncan - 13 PP)
Possession 20 - 17:00
Duncan starts the possession the closest to the basket and then provides cover as Kidd tries to force his way inside. Kidd kicks the ball out for a turnover.
(Duncan - 14 PP)
Possession 21 - 17:24
Duncan starts low post again.and then comes to the basket to seal off Williams. Rogers hits the jumper.
(Duncan - 15 PP)
Possession 22 - 18:18
Duncan watches from inside as Kidd misses another jumper.
(Duncan - 16 PP)
Possession 23 - 19:43
Duncan spends the possession inside culminating in challenging a Harris layup strongside. Harris misses but Williams tips it in.
(Duncan - 17 PP, 6 EPP)
Possession 24 - 20:18
Duncan spends most of the possession inside and seals off Williams creating an easy board for Ginobli.
(Duncan - 18 PP, 7 EPP)
Possession 25 - 21:30
Duncan starts the possession as the only Spur inside and is up against Williams when he gets the ball. Williams bounces it inside to Harris who wins a foul facing two of Duncan’s teammates.
(Duncan - 19 PP)
Possession 26 - 23:43
Duncan channels Hakeem, helping stall two drives from the free-throw line, contesting a potential shot, contesting a second potential shot and then ending his showcase with a chasedown block. Unfortunately Jackson fouls, rendering the last part an unofficial contribution.
(Duncan - 20 PP, 3 PPD, 2 EPPD)
(Duncan subs out for Robinson)
(Duncan comes back in at 29:22)
Possession 27 - 29:44
Duncan spends the possession watching Martin at the free-throw line. Help comes from the perimeter and Martin misses a jumper.
Possession 28 - 31:07
Duncan starts the possession inside and then ventures out to guard Kidd. Kidd passes it off and Duncan goes back inside to watch Mutembo. Rogers bricks the jumper and Duncan seals off Mutembo but Martin has position on Robinson and catches the ball. Eventually Martin gets the ball back from Kidd low-post and Duncan comes to meet him. Martin bounces it to Mutembo who Duncan challenges strongside forcing a miss at the cost of a face-shot. Rogers renders Duncan’s efforts moot with a tip-in.
(Duncan - 21 PP, 8 EPP)
Possession 29 - 32:04
Duncan spends the possession inside and seals off Mutembo as Kidd’s jumper bounces on the rim. Martin, uncovered, removes any doubt pushing the ball in despite Duncan’s best efforts.
(Duncan - 22 PP)
Possession 30 - 32:30
Duncan patrols the free-throw line as Robinson takes over inside stuffing a layup and fighting off two Nets to secure the board.
Possession 31 - 33:39
Duncan is too far up to intervene with the Nets break but Robinson has it covered.
Possession 32 - 33:56
Duncan presses Mutombo at the opposing baseline but Mutombo is able to escape the pressure and Duncan runs back. Duncan retreats to the low-post and is the closest Spur to the basket as Robinson leaves for a Kenyon Martin post-up. Martin drives and Duncan moves to cover but backs off once Martin has Robinson beat. Whether he was too late to contest or backed off a shot he could potentially have challenged, I’m counting that as Ineffective.
(Duncan - 23 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 33 - 34:37
Duncan starts the possession on Martin low-post. Martin gets the ball and gets a bit of separation from Duncan with a couple of spins to get off a floater. Robinson swats the attempt into Duncan’s hands.
(Duncan - 24 PP)
Possession 34 - 36:18
Duncan starts the possession with Martin on the block and ends up on an island near the basket. Kidd bricks a jumper and Duncan seals off Martin giving Robinson an easy board.
(Duncan - 25 PP, 9 EPP)
Possession 35 - 37:14
Duncan starts the possession at the free-throw line and matches up with Martin when he gets the ball. Martin passes it off. Duncan initially follows Martin but drops to deny a potential connection to a cutting Kidd. Kidd relocates and gets the ball for a jumper but Duncan races to contest and Kidd misses badly.
(Duncan - 26 PP, 10 EPP, 4 PPD, 3 EPPD)
Possession 36 - 38:12
With Kidd getting free of his man thanks to a screen, Duncan comes out and goes for the ball with an outstretched hand. Kidd swings it to his teammate who throws it to Collins. Duncan is there to help but Collins finds Martin and Duncan misses the ball entirely with his challenge.
(Duncan - 27 PP, 2 IPP, 5 PPD)
Possession 37 - 38:38
Duncan runs back as the Nets break but the possession ends early with Jefferson committing an offensive foul.
Possession 38 - 39:35
Duncan starts the possession in the paint. Kidd uses a screen to get free of his man and Duncan comes up to meet him prompting Kidd to bounce the ball to Collins who wins free-throws fas Manu arrives too late for the charge.
(Duncan - 6 PPD)
Possession 39 - 40:49
Duncan is too far up to intervene but his teammates stop the break.
Possession 40 - 41:10
Kidd leads the break and Duncan runs back eventually finding Martin inside. Kidd’s jumper bounces off the rim and Duncan rises to prevent Jefferson from getting the board. The ball goes out of bounds and it’s Spurs ball.
(Duncan - 28 PP, 11 EPP)
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Duncan
Spoiler:
Perimeter Defense - Duncan
Spoiler:
During Duncan’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 28 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 11 and ineffective in 2. He was also given 6 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally, Duncan was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Duncan averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.275 EPPs, 0.05 IPPs, 0.15 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.
Here is how other players did using this system:
Spoiler:
Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)
Spoiler:
This is the first time we’ve applied this system to a dominant defensive big at their consensus defensive peak and perhaps unsurprisingly he looks the best.
Going by the numbers this stretch is the high-water mark in terms of paint-usage and combined paint/perimeter usage. It is simultaneously the high-water mark in terms of effectiveness with the ratio of effective:ineffective possessions being bigger than for any other player tracked. I’ll note this system ignores the multiple points where Duncan was too slow to contribute to defending the break at all and but even factoring those 2 additional plays I do not think any of the stretches of play tracked match the combination of high usage and efficacy Duncan had here. On the flipside Duncan’s tracked “production” here is probably bit into a bit by Robinson.
I’m not surprised he was more effective than Shaq, I am however surprised by the gap in usage, particularly inside. He fries 97 Hakeem with paint efficacy and seems to add a bit on the perimeter.
He doesn’t really get approached by any of the tracked performances for wings unless you presume perimeter usage to have more value, and we don’t really need to bother with the guards. .
Miscellaneous
Surprisingly little from an IA perspective.
Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately
If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:
Spoiler:
Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
Spoiler:
Not sure what to track next. 2015 Lebron has been requested but I can’t find full game footage for the Warriors series. Looking at something from Miami is also an option. Also interested in finishing tracking Jordan’s defense during the 91 finals though part of me wants to flip the side of the field I’m focusing on and focus on Stockton/Isiah.
That said, if there are any specific games/series/seasons for some other player you want tracked you can say so below, and I’ll take it into consideration.