What would have happened if the Raptors kept the band together?

[One_and_Done]

I have long made the point that, if I were running the Raptors, I would have just kept their existing core together. My question is, if that had been done then what would have happened?

Looking at the current playoffs (OG and Siakam in the ECFs, FVV a major contributor for the #2 seed, Norm Powell killing it for the Clippers), it seems very obvious to me that the Raptors would have been very successful with this approach. They’d still have had Scottie Barnes either way (not that I think he’s that great).

I’d have kept Lowry, which would helped them stay competitive, kept Powell, and kept OG, Siakam and FVV. They’d have needed to get a solid 5, but that’s the easiest position to fill in the NBA (you don’t need to make a bad Poeltl trade). The team gets to add some more 45-50 win seasons, and hope things go their way for a few deep playoff runs/injuries, while you try to trade for pieces on the edges that take you deeper into the PS. That’s invaluable for a fanbase, and would have been good for the franchises health. It sure beats the alternative path Masai has taken, of treadmilling (sometimes accidentally). The Raptors gave up the chance to be a competitive team for the last 3 seasons, and they appear to have gotten Dick in return for it. They also don’t seem to have any obvious way to improvement.

I realise Siakam and Barnes have some overlap positionally, but honestly I don’t like Barnes as a player. He’s very flawed and tough to build around. The Raptors would have been better served making him 6th man, and rolling out a team of FVV, OG, Powell, Siakam, and [insert 5 here].

[penbeast0]

Not sure if FVV is enough of a creator to make that engine go offensively. You might need more of a playmaking guard even if you have to sacrifice some shooting. Not great spacing either, maybe use Barnes as 6th man spark plug and play FVV with another playmaker at the guard.

[tsherkin]

Not sure if FVV is enough of a creator to make that engine go offensively. You might need more of a playmaking guard even if you have to sacrifice some shooting. Not great spacing either, maybe use Barnes as 6th man spark plug and play FVV with another playmaker at the guard.

To this point, Houston was 9th in the postseason on offense. 14th in eFG%, 9th in TOV%, 1st in ORB%, and 3rd in FT/FGA.

Fred wasn't driving anything special, and that's with him shooting quite well from 3, understanding that this reflected like 2/3s of his total FGA. As is his custom, he was poor inside the arc (41.9% 2FG), unremarkable at drawing fouls (though he hit all his FTs in the GSW series), and very much not a stunner as a creator. He was a solid offensive player, but he just isn't That Guy, you know? His Box Creation sucked, his Passer Rating was bleh, watching him, you could see exactly what he was: an undersized dude who bombs 3s and struggles to get downhill.

Moving on from Fred was the correct move for Toronto. In 2023, he logged his second season in 3 years of under 40% FG, and had his worst 3pt shooting season in ages (kind of like this RS with Houston). He just isn't a dude who should be supporting volume. And it isn't like he's John Stockton out there.

He's best-served more in a 6th man kind of role, not as a focal offensive player.

[One_and_Done]

FVV doesn't seem to have hurt Houston. Plus I'd have had them keep Lowry too, so they'd have had a solid point guard rotation for 2022 & 23 at least. The Raps also won 48 with FVV leading them, and no Lowry.

[Dr Positivity]

I think the FVV, Siakam, Anunoby core was good enough to consistently win 45 W+ if they had been surrounded by win now fitting pieces, even with some injuries, however they were trying to do that and develop young players at the same time. So you have a player like Barnes who's impact in his early years is probably not as good as his numbers, and is harder to fit as a lower shooting playmaking SF/PF beside another athletic handling PF Siakam, and while Poeltl has proven to be a positive player, Barnes/Siakam probably needed a stretch 5 beside them. They tried Powell for Trent who was younger, but it didn't pay off. The bench is a disaster as instead of a 2018 bench mob type team coming together, they're trying to see if Malachi Flynn or Dalano Banton can be their next FVV steal and striking out, develop Precious even though they already had an energy over iq type big in Boucher, etc. Their best half season in the post Lowry years (2022, 48 Ws), the key was playing less people the second half of the year, by using Barnes as backup PG making the only bench players bigs. In addition it seemed like the chemistry was worse with the loss of Lowry's leadership being felt, it felt like some issue there like Nurse being alienating or a 2019 veteran like FVV having a rift with Barnes or something.

If they had kept Lowry it probably works better with no scrub backup PGs and better leadership, maybe they're a steady playoff team. But he wanted to leave to contend.

I'd say Masai's mistake is trading players too late, rather than not holding onto them.

[One_and_Done]

Lowry wanted to get paid. He would have been happy to stay.

[tsherkin]

Lowry wanted to get paid. He would have been happy to stay.

Lowry wasn't worth it at some point. His health was failing. He was effectively done the season he left Toronto for Miami.

[tsherkin]

FVV doesn't seem to have hurt Houston. Plus I'd have had them keep Lowry too, so they'd have had a solid point guard rotation for 2022 & 23 at least. The Raps also won 48 with FVV leading them, and no Lowry.

Yes, he's a net-positive offensive player overall on the balance of a season. He was an inefficient trash gunner in the RS, but he's a sound playmaker and a solid defender who doesn't turn the ball over much. And he was flaming hot from 3 in the Golden State series. But he also can't score 20+ reliably and is PURELY dependent upon 3pt shooting for scoring value, so there's that to consider.

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, FVV and Lowry were still good players though. I'd rather have kept the group together.