2023 Nuggets vs 2025 Thunder

[Narigo]

Who wins in 7 game series in this runback

[falcolombardi]

Okc imo

[One_and_Done]

OKC easily. Denver got really lucky with how soft their 23 playoff slate was. I don't think they were even in the top 4-5 teams last year for example.

[parsnips33]

Raises the interesting question of 23 Nuggets vs 25 Nuggets - does the improvement to Jokic (assuming you think he improved) offset the decline of the supporting cast (assuming you think they've declined)>

[GSP]

Denver in 6 very confident
Okc has been mid on the road these playoffs. Needed literally one of the Goat comebacks to beat a Grizzlies team w/o Ja then scraped by 2pts in game 4 fully w/o Ja. Went 1-2 in Denver won by only 5 and it was a 3pt game in the last 20 seconds or something. Scraped by 2 in Minnesota, gave up 64 bench points and got blown the **** out by 40 the other.

I dont think they win a single game in Denver against 23 Nuggets. They were 44-8 at home that year and some of those regular season losses were w/o Jokic. 10-1 at home in playoffs lone loss was to the voodoo Spo Heat hitting like 20 3s and winning by 3.

Mpj is actually healthy and good in 23. W/ how much Okc has struggled defending athletic versatile wings like Shannon and 25 Braun, Bruce Brown wouldve terrorized them. Leaving him open like they did Russ wouldnt work. Murray was as good as ever. Ag wasnt as good in 23 w/ this shocking shooting improvement but he was still great those playoffs. And ofc 25 Denver didnt have a 3&d wing nvm an elite one that can even create a bit off the bounce like Kcp

Denver steals one on the road and wins every home game. 6 games.

[GSP]

OKC easily. Denver got really lucky with how soft their 23 playoff slate was. I don't think they were even in the top 4-5 teams last year for example.

Last years Denver team wasnt the 2023 one. Losing Bruce and even Jeff was a big hit to their depth. Their 7/8 man was Braun and Jeff in 23 and in 24 it was Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson or Peyton Watson guys who wouldnt even crack their playoff rotation in 23. Braun was more experienced last year but elevated to 6th man which was Bruce Browns role in 23 who was a much better player and Denvers 5th, 4th even 3rd a few times best player in playoff games where hed explode

[lessthanjake]

2025 OKC is a better team, but I think we have to say it’s possible for the 2023 Nuggets to win this, given that the 2025 Nuggets took it to 7 games and are notably less good than the 2023 Nuggets.

[Doctor MJ]

Who wins in 7 game series in this runback

I think the Thunder still win the series more often than not, but the fact that the Nuggets took them to 7 this year with a weaker roster tells us that this would likely be very competitive.

I feel I should also say: I still do think the Nuggets match up better with the Thunder than we'd expect just based on how both teams do against the rest of the league. I think this Thunder team is better than the Nuggets ever were, but the Nuggets at their best would be a tough, tough out nevertheless.

[Doctor MJ]

Raises the interesting question of 23 Nuggets vs 25 Nuggets - does the improvement to Jokic (assuming you think he improved) offset the decline of the supporting cast (assuming you think they've declined)>

So here's the thing:

In '22-23, the Nuggets were 15th in 3P per 100 possession.
In '24-25, the Nuggets were 28th in 3P per 100 possession.

While it's oversimplistic to say that it was 3-point shooting that lost them the Thunder series, I really don't think you can get through 4 playoff series to win a title while being a 28th-in-3P kind of team.

Of course the thing is, the Nuggets haven't really gotten drastically worse by an absolute 3PA/g metric. We're mostly talking about a league that's continuing to demand more 3-point shooting and a Nuggets front office that didn't seem to realize this.

This then to say: It's actually possible that Jokic's absolute improvement has been enough to make the Nuggets a better team relative to '22-23 competition, but the Nugget franchise hasn't properly kept up with the arms race, and so relative to the NBA, they are definitely worse now than they were two years ago.

[DirtyDez]

Nuggets in 6. Bruce Brown and KCP from two years ago instead of Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson is significant.

[bbms]

2023 nuggets. not because they're a better team than 2025 thunder, but because they are a better team than 2025 nuggets.

2025 denver took them to 7 games screamers.

jokic's nuggets is a terrible matchup for okc in general. i think okc is growing along the way and they'll get better. they improved as a basketball team these playoffs, specially in the nuggets series and they beat them.

a healthy 2026 thunder - with their weaknesses exposed and overcome in 2025 - probably beats both 2025 and 2023 nuggets easily as a result of a learning curve.

[Jaivl]

"Nuggets got to 7 and they add better personnel so they win".

Does Gordon still shoot 44% on threes if you replay the series? Is that how it works?

[lessthanjake]

2023 nuggets. not because they're a better team than 2025 thunder, but because they are a better team than 2025 nuggets.

2025 denver took them to 7 games screamers.

jokic's nuggets is a terrible matchup for okc in general. i think okc is growing along the way and they'll get better. they improved as a basketball team these playoffs, specially in the nuggets series and they beat them.

a healthy 2026 thunder - with their weaknesses exposed and overcome in 2025 - probably beats both 2025 and 2023 nuggets easily as a result of a learning curve.

The problem I have with this logic is that I don’t think the 2025 Thunder/Nuggets series going to 7 games was really the median outcome. I think if that series was run a whole bunch of times over, the Thunder would usually win in a shorter series (I actually think they’d often win 4-0 or 4-1). And that’s consistent not just with the difference between the two teams in the regular season, but also with the average margin of victory in the actual series that happened between them (it went to 7 games, but OKC outscored the Nuggets by 9 points a game). So, to me, even though the Thunder only beat the 2025 Nuggets in 7 games, I think they’d usually beat them in like 5 or maybe 6 games, and therefore that they’d probably beat the 2023 Nuggets in 6 or maybe 7 games. But certainly if the 2023 Nuggets outperformed in the series as much as the 2025 Nuggets did (or the Thunder underperformed as much as they did against the 2025 Nuggets—depending on how you see what happened in that series), then the 2023 Nuggets would probably actually win, as opposed to losing in 7.

[The-Power]

I agree with those pointing out that it isn't as easy as saying ‘the 2023 Nuggets are better than the 2025 Nuggets, and that version took the 2025 Thunder to seven games, and therefore the 2023 Nuggets would likely win.’

This assumes that the 2025 Nuggets would generally take the 2025 Thunder to seven games or that this was the expected or median outcome for this series – and I just don't buy that. I think the 2025 Nuggets maybe win this series one or two out of ten times. The 2023 Nuggets may win it three or four out of ten times. That makes the 2023 Nuggets better than the 2025 Nuggets, but still not better than the 2025 Thunder.

[jalengreen]

"Nuggets got to 7 and they add better personnel so they win".

Does Gordon still shoot 44% on threes if you replay the series? Is that how it works?

I have little faith in him truly being a 44% shooter so the point stands but it's funny because he basically matched his regular season 3P% lol

[Outside]

The 2025 Thunder are still finding their PS footing. They may be becoming "that team," but they aren't there yet. Still inconsistent, especially offensively, and still too reliant on Shai when he too often looks not ready to carry that load in the PS. I don't really blame them since this is only the second PS for this group.

The PS is really tough, and hardly anyone ever gets to championship level without going through growing pains first. OKC had only 10 PS games prior to this year, all in 2024.

Denver, on the other hand, had 48 games in the four postseasons prior to their title run, including conference semis twice and conference finals once.

OKC may well go on to win the title this year, and if so, it would justify me reevaluating the question, but at this point, I'm going with 2023 Denver. They aren't as deep as OKC, but they were a solid eight-man rotation, which works fine in the PS, and arguably stronger at the top of their roster. The experience factor swings it to Denver for me.

[Mickey8]

OKC easily. Denver got really lucky with how soft their 23 playoff slate was. I don't think they were even in the top 4-5 teams last year for example.

Denver was one consistent contributor off the bench away of beating Oklahoma this year. With Bruce Brown from 2023 season off the bench Denver would have won this year series easily. If we are going to talk about an easy path to the NBA finals and the title, Oklahoma will have easiest one in the last 20 years. They haven't even faced the top three seeds in the West on the way to the finals. Then they avoided Golden State the team that was derailed by the injures . In the finals they are going to face mickey mouse Indiana Pacers who were lucky to be there because Boston and Cleveland had all kind of injuries in the play offs . Boston would have beaten Oklahoma in the finals for sure.

[One_and_Done]

OKC easily. Denver got really lucky with how soft their 23 playoff slate was. I don't think they were even in the top 4-5 teams last year for example.

Denver was one consistent contributor off the bench away of beating Oklahoma this year. With Bruce Brown from 2023 season off the bench Denver would have won this year series easily. If we are going to talk about an easy path to the NBA finals and the title, Oklahoma will have easiest one in the last 20 years. They haven't even faced the top three seeds in the West on the way to the finals. Then they avoided Golden State the team that was derailed by the injures . In the finals they are going to face mickey mouse Indiana Pacers who were lucky to be there because Boston and Cleveland had all kind of injuries in the play offs . Boston would have beaten Oklahoma in the finals for sure.

OKC didn't even shoot well from 3, and still won. Denver needed several miracles to 1) even beat the Clippers, and 2) get it to 7 vs OKC. Then in game 7 it was a blow out. OKC was the clearly better team.

Plus Jokic wasn't playing as well in 2023.

[TheGOATRises007]

OKC easily. Denver got really lucky with how soft their 23 playoff slate was. I don't think they were even in the top 4-5 teams last year for example.

Denver was one consistent contributor off the bench away of beating Oklahoma this year. With Bruce Brown from 2023 season off the bench Denver would have won this year series easily. If we are going to talk about an easy path to the NBA finals and the title, Oklahoma will have easiest one in the last 20 years. They haven't even faced the top three seeds in the West on the way to the finals. Then they avoided Golden State the team that was derailed by the injures . In the finals they are going to face mickey mouse Indiana Pacers who were lucky to be there because Boston and Cleveland had all kind of injuries in the play offs . Boston would have beaten Oklahoma in the finals for sure.

OKC didn't even shoot well from 3, and still won. Denver needed several miracles to 1) even beat the Clippers, and 2) get it to 7 vs OKC. Then in game 7 it was a blow out. OKC was the clearly better team.

Plus Jokic wasn't playing as well in 2023.

I mean this just isn't true.

There's no argument whatsoever that Jokic wasn't as good in 2023 as he is now. He's pretty much the same player.

[One_and_Done]

Denver was one consistent contributor off the bench away of beating Oklahoma this year. With Bruce Brown from 2023 season off the bench Denver would have won this year series easily. If we are going to talk about an easy path to the NBA finals and the title, Oklahoma will have easiest one in the last 20 years. They haven't even faced the top three seeds in the West on the way to the finals. Then they avoided Golden State the team that was derailed by the injures . In the finals they are going to face mickey mouse Indiana Pacers who were lucky to be there because Boston and Cleveland had all kind of injuries in the play offs . Boston would have beaten Oklahoma in the finals for sure.

OKC didn't even shoot well from 3, and still won. Denver needed several miracles to 1) even beat the Clippers, and 2) get it to 7 vs OKC. Then in game 7 it was a blow out. OKC was the clearly better team.

Plus Jokic wasn't playing as well in 2023.

I mean this just isn't true.

There's no argument whatsoever that Jokic wasn't as good in 2023 as he is now. He's pretty much the same player.

Nah, this was probably Jokic's best season. I mean, without even going further than his 3pt shooting you can see he had a notably better year; from 383. off 2.2 attempts, up to 417. off 4.7 attempts. That's a significant improvement.