2025 Thunder, -Shai +Westbrook

[jalengreen]

Suppose the 2025 Thunder played the season with 2017 Westbrook instead of 2025 Shai. What RS / PS outcome would you expect?

[TheGOATRises007]

Still the overall 1st seed I think or maybe a game or 2 behind Cleveland.

I'm convinced they lose vs Denver in the 2nd round though.

Shai is just a better player than Westbrook.

[EmpireFalls]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

[jalengreen]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

52, yeesh man

[OhayoKD]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

[TheGOATRises007]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

Metrics don't really support that at a quick glance.

He's about the same in the RS as in the playoffs. His efficiency slightly drops in the playoffs. Turnover economy about the same(bit better in the playoffs), but less shooting efficiency in the playoffs. Slightly higher shot volume, so probably the same in the RS in general.

His on-off is slightly better in the playoffs, while his on-court +- is worse. Box score metrics about the same.

[OhayoKD]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

Metrics don't really support that at a quick glance.

He's about the same in the RS as in the playoffs. His efficiency slightly drops in the playoffs. Turnover economy about the same(bit better in the playoffs), but less shooting efficiency in the playoffs. Slightly higher shot volume, so probably the same in the RS in general.

His on-off is slightly better in the playoffs, while his on-court +- is worse. Box score metrics about the same.

What time frame?

[TheGOATRises007]

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

Metrics don't really support that at a quick glance.

He's about the same in the RS as in the playoffs. His efficiency slightly drops in the playoffs. Turnover economy about the same(bit better in the playoffs), but less shooting efficiency in the playoffs. Slightly higher shot volume, so probably the same in the RS in general.

His on-off is slightly better in the playoffs, while his on-court +- is worse. Box score metrics about the same.

What time frame?

His time at OKC with KD.

Not really seeing how he consistently got better in the playoffs compared to the RS. Looks the exact same. Talking about Westbrook here.

If we looked at further seasons, it shows him clearly declining in the playoffs compared to the RS.

[GSP]

They def don't sweep Memphis even w/o Ja. I think that goes 6 games. Denver beats them. Russ wasn't capable of being by far the number 1 offensive option on a true contender.

[EmpireFalls]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

Tongue in cheek way of showing how little I think of OKC’s (offensive) supporting cast and initiation outside of Shai

[Ambrose]

Still the 1 seed, bounced in round 2. Too flawed of a player to win the title as the guy.

[ShotCreator]

Russ goes 33-12-10 on 52% TS with 5 TOs per game, still gets the team to the 1 seed (but not 60 wins, maybe 58).

Playoffs: still beat Memphis, lose to Denver, Russ has splits of 28-12-8 on 48% TS with 7 turnovers per game

Huh? Peak Westbrook's turnover economy was incredible. Why would he have high turnovers on a team like the2025 thunder? He averaged 4.5 turnovers the year before with a comparable supporting cast on absurdly high creation-volume.off riser.

Also why are we pretending peak russ was a playoff dropper when he consistently got better in the playoffs. Durant was the choker

Metrics don't really support that at a quick glance.

He's about the same in the RS as in the playoffs. His efficiency slightly drops in the playoffs. Turnover economy about the same(bit better in the playoffs), but less shooting efficiency in the playoffs. Slightly higher shot volume, so probably the same in the RS in general.

His on-off is slightly better in the playoffs, while his on-court +- is worse. Box score metrics about the same.

That's a playoff riser. To do Rs production against the absolute best competition is better than the RS level in the first place. Very impactful.

Westbrook was extremely clutch in this year. It's the only reason OKC made the playoffs. Only peak Jordan and LeBron matched his 4th Quarter volume and output. He was at over 50 points per 48 in 4th quarters. I had a post on it back in 2017, I'll pull it.

OKC will still easily get over 65 wins with him in place of Shai. Slight defensive dip. Offense more or less the same level.

I think they'd be in just as good of a spot in the playoffs as well.

OKC is a historically loaded team. It's not saying much. CP3, Harden, Curry all do the same things with this team at their peaks.

Only thing I can take away from this thought experiment is peak Westbrook was and probably still is underrated and peak Shai is probably on the overrated side due to his playoff dip.



EDIT: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1550902&p=54317629


Russ had nearly 80 pts/48 on 56 TS% and 9.1 AST to 2.6 TOV in the clutch in 2017.

For reference 90-92 Jordan in PHILA's study was at 78 pts/48 on 73 TS% with 8.1 AST to 1.8 TOV

2010 LeBron, a clutch monster, was at 56 pts/48 on 53 TS% and 8.3 AST to 0.9 TOV

So before we underrate Westbrook and talk about a RS win total drop off, keep in mind his superiority over Shai in close games.