Jack Sikma vs. Kevin McHale

[Ol Roy]

Who was better in their time, and who would you rather have today?

[jojo4341]

Jack Sikma has better range and arguably the more versatile player. However, McHale's efficiency and post moves are too good to pass up even if he never shot the 3. He's also the superior defender and often guarded SFs next to Bird. It's closer than I intitally expected, but I'd go with McHale.

[FrodoBaggins]

Sikma was a great shooter and passer for a C/PF. I'd take McHale, though; his post-up game was foundational in an all-time way. His ORAPM is showing seriously high-end outcomes in some of Squared2020's single-season results. Limited data, obviously, but it's still interesting nonetheless.

McHale was better in his time, and I'd rather have him today. Both would be shooting a healthy amount of threes. McHale went 45/120 (37.5% 3PT) over 166 games in 1989-90 and 1990-91. He'd be like a longer Joakim Noah on defense, and something like a mix of elements of Jokic and Siakam on offense—with more length & reach, of course.

[tsherkin]

Cool comparison. I don't know enough to talk about Sikma to really talk about him, sadly, but he seems like a really neat player.

McHale, of course, I'm well familiar with. Exceptional play finisher and a very strong defender. Quite athletic. whacky inflatable tube man arms, awesome post moves, strong jumper. Excellent player. Not a stunning passer, but he wasn't used that way.

[Warspite]

Sikma is an elite rebounder and very good post defender. A rich man's Bill Laimbeer. Today McHale could win an MVP. Give Mchale an elite PG and he scores at will, but his stats would decrease if he had to create.

[FrodoBaggins]

One of the most unique players ever. No one like him. He'd put up Jokic-like scoring numbers (25-30 ppg; 65-70% TS) while playing All-NBA level defense.

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[B-Mitch 30]

I like Sikma more, guy feels like a player from the future, a great shooter, excellent passer, good defender and rebounder, all while being a tall and athletic white center. That being said, McHale was a post guy who scored with Shaq-like efficiency while being barely over 200 lbs, and was also an excellent free throw shooter, so I'll admit he's the better player.

[eminence]

Give me Sikma.

Find McHale one of the most overrated players ever, especially on D. His rotations look absolutely horrific to my eye.

'86-'88 in the dead center of his prime they didn't miss a beat in the 37 games he missed, 27-10 without him.

[tsherkin]

Sikma is an elite rebounder and very good post defender. A rich man's Bill Laimbeer. Today McHale could win an MVP. Give Mchale an elite PG and he scores at will, but his stats would decrease if he had to create.

#DOUBT on that MVP.

Too much a finisher, not enough a creator. Very good, but beneath MVP tier, IMHO.

Definitely an awesome scorer, though. You get him the ball on the block, and he's getting a high-percentage look, no question. Hard to see him competing with Shai, Jokic, healthy Embiid, Giannis... he just isn't that level of player.

[FrodoBaggins]

McHale could win an MVP; he's talented enough to. Hell, he finished 4th in 1986-87 behind Bird, MJ, and Magic. He had 254 (0.326) points to Larry's 271 (0.347). Sure, he wasn't close to winning, but it gives you a sense of the company he kept at his peak. I see no reason why he couldn't have won an MVP at some point in NBA history on the right team & when the competition is weak. Like 2010-11, 1998-99, or 2004-05, for example.

Significant shot creation is historically associated with winning MVP, but it isn't a requirement. Most of the exceptions are elite two-way bigs, but there are some unique offensive archetypes with outlier skills—Dirk with his shooting & Moses with his offensive rebounding. McHale's post-up offense is likewise an outlier ability.

The trend toward heliocentrism over the last decade probably makes McHale's MVP chances tougher. Not impossible, just harder. We can use AST% as a basic measure for the shot creation of MVP winners. Shai, Jokic, Giannis, Harden, Westbrook, Steph, LeBron. There's quite obviously been a shift. Joel in 2022-23 had the lowest AST% (22.9) of an MVP since Dirk with a 17.8 AST% in 2006-07.

Joel in 2020-21 is the best modern example of someone with a low AST% (16.2) who would've won MVP had he played enough games. He was a beast in the post that season: 1.08 ppp (92nd percentile) on 9.3 poss/g (100th percentile). It's the highest post-up volume since 2013-14 Big Al's 10.3 poss/g, aside from Joel & LMA using 9.4 poss/g in 2017-18.

Dwight finished 2nd for the 2010-11 MVP, and many felt he should've won. He had a 6.8 AST%. Dirk had a good case for MVP in 2004-05 and 2005-06; his AST% was 14.3 and 14.7, respectively. Shaq had a 15.7 AST% in 2004-05. Alonzo had an 8.7 AST% when he narrowly lost to Malone in 1998-99.

Here's a list of all the MVP winners with AST% below 20:

Dirk Nowitzki 2006-07: 17.8 AST%
Tim Duncan 2002-03: 19.5 AST%
Tim Duncan 2001-02: 18.3 AST%
Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00: 19.3 AST%
Michael Jordan 1997-98: 18.0 AST%
David Robinson 1994-95: 13.7 AST%
Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94: 16.4 AST%
Moses Malone 1982-83: 5.1 AST%
Moses Malone 1981-82: 6.9 AST%
Moses Malone 1978-79: 5.9 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1979-80: 16.5 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77: 16.8 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1975-76: 19.4 AST%
Bob McAdoo 1974-75: 8.6 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1973-74: 16.1 AST%
Dave Cowens 1972-73: 13.0 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1971-72: 16.1 AST%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1970-71: 12.2 AST%
Willis Reed 1969-70: 7.1 AST%
Wes Unseld 1968-69: 8.8 AST%
Wilt Chamberlain 1965-66: 16.8 AST%
Bill Russell 1964-65: 14.8 AST%

So, you need to bring outlier scoring in the absence of significant shot creation. A strong defensive impact lowers the threshold somewhat. My assessment is that McHale, at his best, brings scoring to the degree of 25-30 ppg on 65-70% TS in the modern NBA. When coupled with all-pro defense, I think his talent & impact comfortably meet the MVP threshold. The rest is just a matter of circumstance: the right team & weakened competition.

Example: swap Gobert out for McHale in 2020-21. Same league-leading team record + 25-30 ppg, 10-12 rpg, 3-4 apg, 2-2.5 bpg, on 65-70% TS? I could see him winning MVP over Jokic in that scenario.

[eminence]

The '21 Jazz do not have the best record with that switch. Holy hell would our defense have stunk.

Quite possibly the biggest (RS) defensive carry job ever by Rudy that season.

[FrodoBaggins]

The '21 Jazz do not have the best record with that switch. Holy hell would our defense have stunk.

Quite possibly the biggest (RS) defensive carry job ever by Rudy that season.

What they lose defensively they make up with offense. All that shooting around McHale? Forget about it.

[tsherkin]

Dwight finished 2nd for the 2010-11 MVP, and many felt he should've won. He had a 6.8 AST%.

Sure, but he was also a considerably superior defender compared to McHale, and a much better rebounder.

Dirk had a good case for MVP in 2004-05 and 2005-06; his AST% was 14.3 and 14.7,

Sure, but he had more versatile offense and was routinely blasting out seasons which looked like McHale's single-year peak, right, so it isn't necessarily the same thing. I see where you're going, but we're doing a lot of projecting here to suggest that McHale would be rocking 25+ on a nightly basis.

respectively. Shaq had a 15.7 AST% in 2004-05.

Sure, but if you watched Miami, he was doing a fair amount of passing. Measuring impact on AST% alone is HIGHLY imperfect.

So, you need to bring outlier scoring in the absence of significant shot creation. A strong defensive impact lowers the threshold somewhat. My assessment is that McHale, at his best, brings scoring to the degree of 25-30 ppg on 65-70% TS in the modern NBA.

Oh, yeah, no. I'm not with that assessment at all.

If he DID, I could see the MVP argument, of course, but I'm not with that volume or efficiency at all.

[TrueLAfan]

I’ve always been fascinated by Sikma. He was an odd duck as a player in the late 70s and 80s. He was a very good defender and was especially good at getting defensive position (the euphemism at the time was “sharp elbows”) to compensate for an average wingspan. And he truly had range; it was only in his final three years that he was told to shoot from behind the stripe. He hit nearly 36% on good volume--I have no doubt he would shoot better today, with years of actually having the shot really available. That corroborates with his free throw shooting—Jack Sikma may have been the best free throw shooting big man of all time. He led the league one year. He never led the league in rebounding—but he was in the top 7 six times, and had more defensive rebounds than any other player in the decade of the 80s. His shot was almost unblockable—a fast, smooth behind his head stroke. And since he held the ball over and behind his head, you had to be on alert every time he got it and made that reverse pivot. He usually got the ball up toward higher up in the key—then he’d spin back and hold the ball up from the pocket, about 15-20 feet from the hoop. Only average speed, but pretty good side to side quickness and a good (not great first step) which, combined with a ton of strength, let him get by you with a ton of momentum once you rose up (which defenders did, since he held the ball over his head). If you laid off of him, he was a very good passer. Players hated playing against him at the time. He was a confounding guy in the best way out there.

Would he be better today? You never know. There’s more big man spacing now, so his range isn’t as unique. And I think big, long perimeter defenders would give him more problems. But what might hamper his perimeter spacing as a shooter would increase his assist numbers. I also think he’d get fouled more—his shot was/is still virtually unblockable, so I really think he’d end up with a 6 or 7 FTA attempts a game and would hit 85% plus. I think the higher number of threes would make him more efficient. He was about 56% TS% for the bulk of his prime—I think he’d up that to 57-58%. He’d still be a good defender and an excellent rebounder. How much would you pay for an 18-10-4 guy that shot 37% from behind the stripe and was a very good defender? Probably a real whole lot.

Sikma was a fascinating player. Don’t know if he was better than McHale, who was much more “traditional” (and, like everyone, hated to go up against Sikma). I mean, McHale was great too. But Sikma was such an oddity in his time and had such an unusual skill set that it’s worth noting.

[BusywithBball]

Sikma or Mchale that’s tough. But I think Mchale does enough defensively for the offense to win this. He’s great down the block guarding 3-5 at an elite level. Boxes out well and does the dirty work. He’s not got great vision but he pressured defenders with a versatile scoring arsenal and underrated presence as a slasher.

Sikma was a beast on d, for sure. But I think he was too limited offensively. I can see Mchale lead a playoff team on both sides. Not sure about Sikma.

[FrodoBaggins]

Dwight finished 2nd for the 2010-11 MVP, and many felt he should've won. He had a 6.8 AST%.

Sure, but he was also a considerably superior defender compared to McHale, and a much better rebounder.

But a worse scorer and, to a lesser degree, passer.

Dirk had a good case for MVP in 2004-05 and 2005-06; his AST% was 14.3 and 14.7,

Sure, but he had more versatile offense and was routinely blasting out seasons which looked like McHale's single-year peak, right, so it isn't necessarily the same thing. I see where you're going, but we're doing a lot of projecting here to suggest that McHale would be rocking 25+ on a nightly basis.

He was also a much worse defender, offensive rebounder, and paint finisher.

And McHale has about as much useful offensive versatility as Anthony Davis, meaning play types that add TS Add/points above league average. And Davis hasn't struggled to put up 25+ ppg. Post-up, PnR roll man, cuts, putbacks, spot-up, transition. With his all-time post-up ability, Kevin has more room for isolation play than AD. More akin to 2018-19 and 2020-21 Embiid.

ALSO: We have a fairly large uninterrupted sample of games against a very strong strength of schedule where McHale put up 24-25 ppg:

176 game sample ('86 playoffs, '87 regular season, '88 regular season, '88 playoffs)
- 24.625 ppg, 9.03 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.9 bpg, 2.4 topg
- 60.14% FG, 81.8% FT, 65.5% TS

You can add another 137 games from when he began starting late in 1984-85 when Maxwell went down with an injury, the 1985 playoffs, 1985-86 regular season, and injured 1987 playoffs. I imagine the ppg would be around 23-24 ppg. 331 GP = over 4 season's worth of games against a very strong strength of schedule.

McHale didn't bang out 25+ ppg seasons because he couldn't. He sacrificed as part of a great team. But there was no doubt about his ability: an all-time talent.

respectively. Shaq had a 15.7 AST% in 2004-05.

Sure, but if you watched Miami, he was doing a fair amount of passing. Measuring impact on AST% alone is HIGHLY imperfect.

2004-05 showed that a player can lack high-end scoring volume but still win MVP. There are general patterns of what qualities MVPs have, but there aren't any inviolable rules per se. Impact, value, and their perception come in various packages.

So, you need to bring outlier scoring in the absence of significant shot creation. A strong defensive impact lowers the threshold somewhat. My assessment is that McHale, at his best, brings scoring to the degree of 25-30 ppg on 65-70% TS in the modern NBA.

Oh, yeah, no. I'm not with that assessment at all.

If he DID, I could see the MVP argument, of course, but I'm not with that volume or efficiency at all.

Refer to sampled games above + relative scoring efficiencies (rTS, r2PT, TS+, 2PT+). Also consider prime/peak AD, Sabonis, & Jokic's combination of volume + efficiency. McHale was an effective roller and cutter/rim-runner; his incredible reach, length, hands, touch, and very quick two-foot jumping would allow him to benefit from the abundant opportunistic finishes available to bigs in this era. That's where the efficiency boost largely comes from.

[tsherkin]

But a worse scorer and, to a lesser degree, passer.

I think the difference defensively outpaces the difference offensively, to be honest. McHale was obviously a superior isolation scorer and was, in general, very good, of course.

And McHale has about as much useful offensive versatility as Anthony Davis, meaning play types that add TS Add/points above league average. And Davis hasn't struggled to put up 25+ ppg. Post-up, PnR roll man, cuts, putbacks, spot-up, transition. With his all-time post-up ability, Kevin has more room for isolation play than AD. More akin to 2018-19 and 2020-21 Embiid.

I still think you're overrating his scoring potential in today's game.

McHale didn't bang out 25+ ppg seasons because he couldn't. He sacrificed as part of a great team. But there was no doubt about his ability: an all-time talent.

I mean obviously team context was a major factor. Minutes, the other scorers on the team, etc. But that level of defensive draw and passing around him also impacted his ability to operate as he did.

2004-05 showed that a player can lack high-end scoring volume but still win MVP.

Did it? Shaq didn't win that year, Nash did. It was reasonably close, but it's worth remembering that Shaq was a very different post presence than McHale and also had some weight of reputation helping him out in a way that was probably inappropriate given D Wade's presence on that team.

Refer to sampled games above + relative scoring efficiencies (rTS, r2PT, TS+, 2PT+). Also consider prime/peak AD, Sabonis, & Jokic's combination of volume + efficiency. McHale was an effective roller and cutter/rim-runner; his incredible reach, length, hands, touch, and very quick two-foot jumping would allow him to benefit from the abundant opportunistic finishes available to bigs in this era. That's where the efficiency boost largely comes from.

Still can't say I'm with that. I understand he managed 26 on 65% TS in 87, and that there are changes in the league to consider, but you also have to consider him not having Bird and Parish around him, too, you know what I mean? And DJ and Ainge, for that matter.

[FrodoBaggins]

But a worse scorer and, to a lesser degree, passer.

I think the difference defensively outpaces the difference offensively, to be honest. McHale was obviously a superior isolation scorer and was, in general, very good, of course.

What translates more to MVP candidacy? Offense or defense? The fact Rudy Gobert finished 10th in the 2020-21 MVP despite having the best team record, the 2nd-most win shares, and hands-down best on-court NRtg & on-off NRtg says it all.

And McHale has about as much useful offensive versatility as Anthony Davis, meaning play types that add TS Add/points above league average. And Davis hasn't struggled to put up 25+ ppg. Post-up, PnR roll man, cuts, putbacks, spot-up, transition. With his all-time post-up ability, Kevin has more room for isolation play than AD. More akin to 2018-19 and 2020-21 Embiid.

I still think you're overrating his scoring potential in today's game.

Agree to disagree.

McHale didn't bang out 25+ ppg seasons because he couldn't. He sacrificed as part of a great team. But there was no doubt about his ability: an all-time talent.

I mean obviously team context was a major factor. Minutes, the other scorers on the team, etc. But that level of defensive draw and passing around him also impacted his ability to operate as he did.

Peak McHale got doubled as much as Larry did, IMO:

"He's the most underrated player in the league. He presents as many match-up problems as anyone, or more."-Los Angeles Lakers general manager Jerry West, a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame.

"Bird is tough, but McHale down low is the match-up that eats everyone alive in this league."-Chicago Bulls coach Doug Collins.

In his prime, McHale was held in high esteem around the league. When he prepared for playing the Celtics, then-76ers coach Billy Cunningham said that McHale was the player who caused him to lose sleep at night.

"Believe it or not, we felt we had a game plan with Bird, as good as he was you could only stop him so much," Cunningham says. "But we didn't know how to match up with McHale. We were stuck between a rock and a hard place. He had the best post moves probably of any player I can remember.

"Kevin McHale is the best inside player in the league. He is as close to unstoppable as you can get. He's been tough on us forever, and he just seems to be getting better and better."-Milwaukee Bucks coach Don Nelson.

Doc Rivers: "We were fearful of Bird and McHale, but we were really scared of McHale because we knew Bird was going to be Bird, and Dominique may outscore him and we could match that, but McHale was the guy we just couldn't get a handle on, and he knew it.

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"Kevin McHale is the best post-up player in the league right now," Walton declares. "He is unsurpassed. I can't say enough about his ability to create mismatches. What makes him the toughest inside player, as opposed to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or Akeem Olajuwon, is his variety of moves."

The conclusion one reaches after reviewing all this is simple: The surest way to get two points in the N.B.A. this year is to put the ball in McHale's hands. "There's no one close to him in scoring; it's a joke," says Bird, who ought to know. "He's got that jump hook, and every night we go to him. The only thing Kevin can't do is dribble."

Danny Ainge goes a step further, stating without hesitation that for the 1986-1987 season, "McHale has been our M.V.P."

2004-05 showed that a player can lack high-end scoring volume but still win MVP.

Did it? Shaq didn't win that year, Nash did. It was reasonably close, but it's worth remembering that Shaq was a very different post presence than McHale and also had some weight of reputation helping him out in a way that was probably inappropriate given D Wade's presence on that team.

The lack of high-end scoring volume was obviously a reference to Nash, who did win. Making a general point about MVP candidacy. Jason Kidd in 2001-02 was an even more extreme example: a guy nearly won MVP without strong scoring volume AND efficiency!

Refer to sampled games above + relative scoring efficiencies (rTS, r2PT, TS+, 2PT+). Also consider prime/peak AD, Sabonis, & Jokic's combination of volume + efficiency. McHale was an effective roller and cutter/rim-runner; his incredible reach, length, hands, touch, and very quick two-foot jumping would allow him to benefit from the abundant opportunistic finishes available to bigs in this era. That's where the efficiency boost largely comes from.

Still can't say I'm with that. I understand he managed 26 on 65% TS in 87, and that there are changes in the league to consider, but you also have to consider him not having Bird and Parish around him, too, you know what I mean? And DJ and Ainge, for that matter.

Sure, it takes a projection of his skills into a modern context. He's more than talented enough by my eye. I for one think he'd be an absolutely wicked pick-and-roll player based on limited possessions during his playing career & an assessment of his size, athleticism, and skill.

I'd also argue that McHale's game was only mildly synergistic with Larry's game. Kevin didn't rely on him like Amar'e did Nash. I feel similarly about Karl Malone regarding John Stockton. We have a sample of games showing Karl was able to maintain his offensive output sans Stockton. We've also got a small sample of games that show a similar trend for McHale during his best years:

Kevin McHale played 10 games without Larry Bird between 1985 and 1987

1984-1985 (2 games)

27.0 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.0 bpg, on 64.5% FG (10/15.5) and 77.8% FT (7.0/9.0) [69.37% TS]

1986-1987 (8 games)

28.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 3.4 bpg, on 59% FG (10.6/18) and 88.5% FT (6.8/7.6) [65.59% TS]

Combined that is: (10 games)

27.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.9 bpg, on 60% FG (10.5/17.5) and 88% FT (6.8/7.8) [66.41% TS]

Kevin's output didn't crater without Larry as one might expect. Even in the '88-'89 season an aging, degenerating McHale still put up 22.5 ppg on 60.8% TS - certainly no great failure. That season had several factors that influenced the performance of the team aside from Larry's absence. A rookie coach, an aging core, lackluster youth, and a weak bench. It was a 45-win-pace team when healthy without Bird.

The team was only marginally better the next season even with Larry back. A late-season winning streak got them to 52 wins. McHale's stats didn't shoot back up to his '87 and '88 levels despite Bird being back.

[tsherkin]

Agree to disagree.

Yup, that's about where we are, but that's okay. It's been an interesting discussion, and McHale is a fun one to recall.

The lack of high-end scoring volume was obviously a reference to Nash, who did win

Yeah, I flat-out read that part wrong and juxtaposed a section about low AST% in there instead, sorry. My bad.

. Making a general point about MVP candidacy. Jason Kidd in 2001-02 was an even more extreme example: a guy nearly won MVP without strong scoring volume AND efficiency!

Yeah, which was weird, but he was also heavily underrated as a defender because he was a guard who could kill the defensive boards, so there's also that. Also, he never REALLY had any business threatening over Tim Duncan, of course, but that's another matter.

[eminence]

The '21 Jazz do not have the best record with that switch. Holy hell would our defense have stunk.

Quite possibly the biggest (RS) defensive carry job ever by Rudy that season.

What they lose defensively they make up with offense. All that shooting around McHale? Forget about it.

Nah, that's a 4 seed if things go well. Bottom 10, maybe bottom 5 defense.

And absolutely no chance at MVP if he's behind Jokic in the standings.

And yes, Gobert should've done much better in the MVP voting that season.