RealGM

Who was better in the playoffs?

2009 Kobe: 30/5/5/2/1 on 56%TS,TOV: 2.6, PER: 26.8, WS: 4.7, VORP: 2.6

2025 SGA: 30/6/5/2/1 on 57%TS, TOV 2.6, PER: 25.3,WS: 3.9, VORP: 2.2

Kobe. Basically identical raw base stats which is obviously worth more 16 years ago than now, and I'd argue he faced stiffer defensive competition

wafflzgod wrote:Kobe. Basically identical raw base stats which is obviously worth more 16 years ago than now, and I'd argue he faced stiffer defensive competition

And if you adjust for era Shai's efficiency is a bit worse, too. +2 rTS for Kobe, -.2 rTS for Shai

It's easily Kobe.

SGA per 100; 39/7/9 on 574 TS%
Kobe per 100; 39/7/7 on 564 TS% with much worse D, and without being able to run an offense like Shai.

So yeh, it's still Shai comfortably, just not by as much as the RS margin. Shai also did it vs much stronger opposition. People saying Kobe 'faced tougher competition' are just flat out wrong. Kobe would have performed worse today, and not just because of the stronger opposition. This finals had the most distance covered by players of any finals ever. Kobe would have been run into the ground. He's still be a fine player in today's NBA, but no chance he is exerting the same level of energy on both ends because it would be too exhausting for him.

I don't think there's any argument for SGA here unless he'd had a much better game 7 to close it out. Like a 40/7/7 type game or something.

Kobe was better in the playoffs.

I'd pick 08 Kobe in the playoffs as well.

One_and_Done wrote:SGA per 100; 39/7/9 on 574 TS%
Kobe per 100; 39/7/7 on 564 TS% with much worse D, and without being able to run an offense like Shai.

So yeh, it's still Shai comfortably, just not by as much as the RS margin. Shai also did it vs much stronger opposition. People saying Kobe 'faced tougher competition' are just flat out wrong. Kobe would have performed worse today, and not just because of the stronger opposition. This finals had the most distance covered by players of any finals ever. Kobe would have been run into the ground. He's still be a fine player in today's NBA, but no chance he is exerting the same level of energy on both ends because it would be too exhausting for him.

Feels like a bit of a sleight of hand to give per-100-possession numbers and then talk about how players cover more distance now. Kobe played 5.7 more minutes per game in the 2009 Finals than SGA did in the 2025 Finals (and 3.9 MPG more overall in the playoffs). The reason for that is surely that it is more tiring to play now. But you’re basically adjusting for SGA playing less by putting the numbers in per-100-possession format, while also trying to give him credit for players covering more ground now (which is the flip side of SGA playing less). It’s not really fair analysis unless you acknowledge that Kobe was on the court like 10-15% more than SGA.

Also, surely even you can see that 57.4% TS% in the year 2025 is worse than 56.4% TS% in the year 2009. You may have decided you don’t like the rTS% stat, but surely even you would not claim that it is equally easy to score in all eras. Kobe’s scoring efficiency in the 2009 playoffs was absolutely better than SGA’s in the 2025 playoffs.

I do actually agree with you that Kobe faced lesser competition. Not because 2009 was the stone age or something, but because the Lakers got a pretty fortunate draw that year, with the Rockets being very injured, the Nuggets being a pretty weak conference finals opponent, and Jameer Nelson playing injured in the Finals. Was still very impressive from Kobe though. And I think he was better in the 2009 playoffs than SGA was in the 2025 playoffs, though if we consider regular season then I’d have 2025 SGA > 2009 Kobe.

It's not about the minutes, it's about how much ground you're covering in those minutes. If you're having to run twice as much per 100 possessions, you're going to be far more fatigued. Kobe wouldn't be able to play as well today, in part because he'd have less energy to expend on offense.

One_and_Done wrote:It's not about the minutes, it's about how much ground you're covering in those minutes. If you're having to run twice as much per 100 possessions, you're going to be far more fatigued. Kobe wouldn't be able to play as well today, in part because he'd have less energy to expend on offense.

Players are not running twice as much per 100 possessions now than they were back then. They are running more per 100 possessions, but definitely not twice as much. And they’re mitigating that by playing fewer minutes. To the extent you think they’re still running more even with the lower minutes load, that would indeed make them be more fatigued, but that goes both ways. It might mean Kobe would be more fatigued, but it also means the people defending Kobe would be more fatigued. It’s not remotely clear how that would shake out for him. It could actually help him. Indeed, we might expect it would, given that he was conditioned well enough that he was able to consistently ramp up to very high minutes in the playoffs in his prime—suggesting that he didn’t get fatigued as easily as other people. An environment that is more fatiguing for players is actually quite beneficial for the guys who get fatigued less easily, even though they too would be more fatigued than normal.

lessthanjake wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:It's not about the minutes, it's about how much ground you're covering in those minutes. If you're having to run twice as much per 100 possessions, you're going to be far more fatigued. Kobe wouldn't be able to play as well today, in part because he'd have less energy to expend on offense.

Players are not running twice as much per 100 possessions now than they were back then. They are running more per 100 possessions, but definitely not twice as much. And they’re mitigating that by playing fewer minutes. To the extent you think they’re still running more even with the lower minutes load, that would indeed make them be more fatigued, but that goes both ways. It might mean Kobe would be more fatigued, but it also means the people defending Kobe would be more fatigued. It’s not remotely clear how that would shake out for him. It could actually help him. Indeed, we might expect it would, given that he was conditioned well enough that he was able to consistently ramp up to very high minutes in the playoffs in his prime—suggesting that he didn’t get fatigued as easily as other people.

Counterbalancing that though, the league is now more perimeter focussed with quicker and less easily fatigued players. The old style rebounding 4 is all but extinct, and 5s are mostly either more mobile or play fewer minutes (or both).

There are push and pull factors, but on the whole I think it's clear Kobe would be more fatigued today and have less energy per minute/possession.

One_and_Done wrote:

lessthanjake wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:It's not about the minutes, it's about how much ground you're covering in those minutes. If you're having to run twice as much per 100 possessions, you're going to be far more fatigued. Kobe wouldn't be able to play as well today, in part because he'd have less energy to expend on offense.

Players are not running twice as much per 100 possessions now than they were back then. They are running more per 100 possessions, but definitely not twice as much. And they’re mitigating that by playing fewer minutes. To the extent you think they’re still running more even with the lower minutes load, that would indeed make them be more fatigued, but that goes both ways. It might mean Kobe would be more fatigued, but it also means the people defending Kobe would be more fatigued. It’s not remotely clear how that would shake out for him. It could actually help him. Indeed, we might expect it would, given that he was conditioned well enough that he was able to consistently ramp up to very high minutes in the playoffs in his prime—suggesting that he didn’t get fatigued as easily as other people.

Counterbalancing that though, the league is now more perimeter focussed with quicker and less easily fatigued players. The old style rebounding 4 is all but extinct, and 5s are mostly either more mobile or play fewer minutes (or both).

There are push and pull factors, but on the whole I think it's clear Kobe would be more fatigued today and have less energy per minute/possession.

Given the low MPG these days and load management, I don’t think that’s actually necessarily true. But if you think this era is more fatiguing for players and therefore would be more fatiguing for Kobe, it does not actually logically follow that that would necessarily be bad for him. Again, a more fatiguing environment means that opposing players would be more fatigued too. It may be harder to score while fatigued, but it is also easier to score on someone who is fatigued. Whether that’s good or bad for someone depends on which effect is bigger: the effect on them or the effect on their opponents. Because of this, a more fatiguing environment is actually more beneficial for guys who get fatigued less easily than other players, because the two sides of that coin would net out in their favor (i.e. such a player might be more fatigued himself, but his opponents will experience an even greater increase in fatigue than he will, which will be to his benefit overall). And we have every reason to believe that Kobe was someone who got fatigued less easily than virtually anyone else. So yeah, I’d say this is probably a factor that weighs in his favor in terms of era-translation. If anything, it’d tend to make him *better* in this era than he was in his own—perhaps significantly so! You might counter that with the idea that the league is tilted towards less-easily-fatigued players now compared to back then. But that might only get you closer to net zero on this point. The league definitely isn’t filled with guys who could’ve routinely played 40-45 MPG of playoff basketball, often after playing every single regular season game, like Kobe did. Kobe was still almost certainly less easily fatigued than virtually every player today. Which means this is almost certainly a factor that is good for Kobe in terms of translating to today.

Yeah I think yesterday pretty much ended the "best guard season since Jordan" stuff that SGA had going.

f4p wrote:Yeah I think yesterday pretty much ended the "best guard season since Jordan" stuff that SGA had going.

Weird game to have ended it when the biggest question with him was his playmaking instincts and they were phenomenal

I don't think it was the best guard season since Jordan, but certainly not because of his Game 7 performance

One_and_Done wrote:SGA per 100; 39/7/9 on 574 TS%
Kobe per 100; 39/7/7 on 564 TS% with much worse D, and without being able to run an offense like Shai.

So yeh, it's still Shai comfortably, just not by as much as the RS margin. Shai also did it vs much stronger opposition. People saying Kobe 'faced tougher competition' are just flat out wrong. Kobe would have performed worse today, and not just because of the stronger opposition. This finals had the most distance covered by players of any finals ever. Kobe would have been run into the ground. He's still be a fine player in today's NBA, but no chance he is exerting the same level of energy on both ends because it would be too exhausting for him.

I'm as low on Kobe's defense as anyone, but I feel like the 2009 playoffs is one point in his career where he was really trying and giving max effort on that end and was actually pretty good. He also had a better net rating in the playoffs than SGA despite the Lakers being 10.5 points worse when he was on the bench than the Thunder were with SGA. In this one very specific instance, I think we have to give Kobe his flowers. He earned it.

2009 Kobe

(rTS% of 3.8%)
Lead opponent adjusted rORTG of +8.4. Faced an average opponent defense with a rDRTG of -3.

ScoreVal-1.6
PlayVal-1.3

Backicks BPM-7.5
BPM-9.1
AuPM/G-5.6
EPM-6.3

2025 Shai

(rTS% of 0.5%)

Lead opponent adjusted rORTG of +1.3. Faced an average opponent defense with a rDRTG of -0.5 (so not as tough of defenses).

ScoreVal-0.6
PlayVal-1.5

Backpicks BPM-6.5
BPM-8.3
AuPM/G-4.7
EPM-4.7

Overall Kobe's case is stronger. Adjusting for era, he leads a better offensive (in part due to better offensive talent), but also due to just scoring on greater volume adjusted for era on better efficiency. Kobe showed more against the toughest defense I would argue than Shai as well.

Shai had highs as a playmaker. I think his constant pressure on the rim, and also the way some defenses guard today, opened up shots that maybe Kobe didn't. But I still think Kobe has the better pure vision, which is why their playmaking values show as relatively close. Other than against the Celtics in 08 and 10 (years that are not apart of the year in question), Kobe's playmaking didn't quite get stifled the way Shai's did by certain coverages.

I think another thing to highlight is that Shai's rim finishing and 3 pt shooting kind of fell off materially, which is part of the reason why Kobe has such a sizable advantage. Shai shot 59.4% at the rim and 28.3% from 3 per Dunks and Threes. Those figures were in the 29th and 5th percentile for the league. Kobe shot 56.3% at the rim and 34.9% from 3, which was the 50th and 44th percentiles. Kobe scoring better relative to era in these key spots are a huge part of his value add. Kobe's didn't get to the rim close to the rate of Shai, but when he got there, he probably created more separation from the pack.

f4p wrote:Yeah I think yesterday pretty much ended the "best guard season since Jordan" stuff that SGA had going.

Not really yesterday, but the playoffs as a whole.

His last 2 playoff runs have been below his RS level.

Still had a great run though.

Wouldn't personally take it over Curry's 17 season, but that's the only recent guard season I'd take over SGA clearly.

Some of Harden's seasons are arguable both ways.

lessthanjake wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:

lessthanjake wrote:
Players are not running twice as much per 100 possessions now than they were back then. They are running more per 100 possessions, but definitely not twice as much. And they’re mitigating that by playing fewer minutes. To the extent you think they’re still running more even with the lower minutes load, that would indeed make them be more fatigued, but that goes both ways. It might mean Kobe would be more fatigued, but it also means the people defending Kobe would be more fatigued. It’s not remotely clear how that would shake out for him. It could actually help him. Indeed, we might expect it would, given that he was conditioned well enough that he was able to consistently ramp up to very high minutes in the playoffs in his prime—suggesting that he didn’t get fatigued as easily as other people.

Counterbalancing that though, the league is now more perimeter focussed with quicker and less easily fatigued players. The old style rebounding 4 is all but extinct, and 5s are mostly either more mobile or play fewer minutes (or both).

There are push and pull factors, but on the whole I think it's clear Kobe would be more fatigued today and have less energy per minute/possession.

Given the low MPG these days and load management, I don’t think that’s actually necessarily true. But if you think this era is more fatiguing for players and therefore would be more fatiguing for Kobe, it does not actually logically follow that that would necessarily be bad for him. Again, a more fatiguing environment means that opposing players would be more fatigued too. It may be harder to score while fatigued, but it is also easier to score on someone who is fatigued. Whether that’s good or bad for someone depends on which effect is bigger: the effect on them or the effect on their opponents. Because of this, a more fatiguing environment is actually more beneficial for guys who get fatigued less easily than other players, because the two sides of that coin would net out in their favor (i.e. such a player might be more fatigued himself, but his opponents will experience an even greater increase in fatigue than he will, which will be to his benefit overall). And we have every reason to believe that Kobe was someone who got fatigued less easily than virtually anyone else. So yeah, I’d say this is probably a factor that weighs in his favor in terms of era-translation. If anything, it’d tend to make him *better* in this era than he was in his own—perhaps significantly so! You might counter that with the idea that the league is tilted towards less-easily-fatigued players now compared to back then. But that might only get you closer to net zero on this point. The league definitely isn’t filled with guys who could’ve routinely played 40-45 MPG of playoff basketball, often after playing every single regular season game, like Kobe did. Kobe was still almost certainly less easily fatigued than virtually every player today. Which means this is almost certainly a factor that is good for Kobe in terms of translating to today.

Explosive movements are way more fatiguing. Game is tougher today, period.

f4p wrote:Yeah I think yesterday pretty much ended the "best guard season since Jordan" stuff that SGA had going.

Lol. Petty hater!
MVP and Finals MVP, terrible season. Let me tell you - he will get even better, and the team offense will get way better - he will look even better next year. So you better prepare to hide when that happens!

MMyhre wrote:

lessthanjake wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:Counterbalancing that though, the league is now more perimeter focussed with quicker and less easily fatigued players. The old style rebounding 4 is all but extinct, and 5s are mostly either more mobile or play fewer minutes (or both).

There are push and pull factors, but on the whole I think it's clear Kobe would be more fatigued today and have less energy per minute/possession.

Given the low MPG these days and load management, I don’t think that’s actually necessarily true. But if you think this era is more fatiguing for players and therefore would be more fatiguing for Kobe, it does not actually logically follow that that would necessarily be bad for him. Again, a more fatiguing environment means that opposing players would be more fatigued too. It may be harder to score while fatigued, but it is also easier to score on someone who is fatigued. Whether that’s good or bad for someone depends on which effect is bigger: the effect on them or the effect on their opponents. Because of this, a more fatiguing environment is actually more beneficial for guys who get fatigued less easily than other players, because the two sides of that coin would net out in their favor (i.e. such a player might be more fatigued himself, but his opponents will experience an even greater increase in fatigue than he will, which will be to his benefit overall). And we have every reason to believe that Kobe was someone who got fatigued less easily than virtually anyone else. So yeah, I’d say this is probably a factor that weighs in his favor in terms of era-translation. If anything, it’d tend to make him *better* in this era than he was in his own—perhaps significantly so! You might counter that with the idea that the league is tilted towards less-easily-fatigued players now compared to back then. But that might only get you closer to net zero on this point. The league definitely isn’t filled with guys who could’ve routinely played 40-45 MPG of playoff basketball, often after playing every single regular season game, like Kobe did. Kobe was still almost certainly less easily fatigued than virtually every player today. Which means this is almost certainly a factor that is good for Kobe in terms of translating to today.

Explosive movements are way more fatiguing. Game is tougher today, period.

You are missing the point I was making. If the game is more fatiguing today, then that is to the benefit of players who get less easily fatigued. If you’ve got better stamina than other guys, then you’d rather the game is more fatiguing. This is because, even if you’ll be more tired, your opponents will experience an even bigger increase in exhaustion than you do. And that helps you. A pretty exhausted player has a huge advantage over a super exhausted player. Kobe pretty clearly had a high degree of stamina, so there’s every reason to think he’d benefit from a more-fatiguing environment.