RealGM

Which of these players peaked higher than Jordan?

Player peaks I personally rank higher than MJ:
Russell
Duncan
LeBron

Players one could somewhat reasonably have above peak MJ (probably not all at once if consistent):
Mikan
Wilt
KAJ
ABA Dr J
Magic
Hakeem
Shaq
KG
Steph
Jokic
SGA

I would probably say none of the above personally. However I think you can make arguments for Lebron, Kareem, Shaq and Jokic in that order.

Voted non but I think Lebron/Kareem/Shaq have a case.

Lebron

Maybe but not too convince: kareem, hakeem or shaq

LeBron is the only one with a peak in the same tier as MJ and even then I think the evidence points to MJ having a higher peak

Curious to see One and Done's take on this given he said in another thread that a guard that is in the 3 point eligible era that doesn't shoot 3's is never going to be that good. That would include Jordan averaging less than 2 attempts and less than a .333 percentage from 3 for his career.

Special_Puppy wrote:LeBron is the only one with a peak in the same tier as MJ and even then I think the evidence points to MJ having a higher peak

I see we're using "evidence" as loosely as possible:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

There are also ill omens in the sea of squared. Can't wait for "you have to be cautious using vulgar RAPM"

OhayoKD wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:LeBron is the only one with a peak in the same tier as MJ and even then I think the evidence points to MJ having a higher peak

I see we're using "evidence" as loosely as possible:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

There are also ill omens in the sea of squared. Can't wait for "you have to be cautious using vulgar RAPM"

Jordan is number 1 in the giant 1985-1996 RAPM although Magic has closed the gap with him somewhat. I know your objection is that the regularization pulls everyone else down the pack more than Jordan since MJ has the biggest sample.

Still as DraymondGold’s post illustrates most of the evidence points to MJ and LeBron being in their own separate tier with MJ being a step ahead of LeBron https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

Special_Puppy wrote:

OhayoKD wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:LeBron is the only one with a peak in the same tier as MJ and even then I think the evidence points to MJ having a higher peak

I see we're using "evidence" as loosely as possible:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins, 15 win lift
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins, 15 win lift
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59

There are also ill omens in the sea of squared. Can't wait for "you have to be cautious using vulgar RAPM"

Jordan is number 1 in the giant 1985-1996 RAPM although Magic has closed the gap with him somewhat. I know your objection is that the regularization pulls everyone else down the pack more than Jordan since MJ has the biggest sample.

Still as DraymondGold’s post illustrates most of the evidence points to MJ and LeBron being in their own separate tier with MJ being a step ahead of LeBron https://squared2020.com/2025/01/26/historical-rapm-1985-1996/

Somewhat? It's a gap of .3 with only 2/3rds of the sample.

And replicating similar decisions on sampling and human informed priors a bunch of times isn't actually "evidence" for those who understand what proving something actually entails. If I stitch together IBM's formula to >10 game/szn filtered WOWY i can get endless "WOWY's" saying Jordan is sub-Rodman. If i filter it to >50 games and restrict my adjustment to "the year after a player leaves" instead of a scattershot prime-length amalgamation combining dozens of >5 game samples several years apart....



...well shockingly the evidence suddenly calls into question if Jordan is even top tier, never mind being in his own.

Jokic came closest, but none.

Peaks higher than peak 1991 Jordan..

2009-10 Lebron
1976-77 Kareem
1999-00 Shaq
1963-64 Wilt
2002-03 Duncan
1992-93 Hakeem

Peaks with an argument over 1991 Jordan...

2015-16 Steph
2022-23 Jokic
2003-04 KG
1986-87 Magic
1963-64 Bill

After this clear seperation from the rest of the pack (my 13 and 14th best peaks, 63-64 Oscar and 22-23 Embiid)

None for me. I think the majority of metrics side with MJ. Of course the metrics have confidence intervals and given the variable team contexts and eras, you can make arguments for other people. But Jordan is likely the best peak ever if we judge players relative to their own eras.

Top10alltime wrote:Peaks higher than peak 1991 Jordan..

2009-10 Lebron
1976-77 Kareem
1999-00 Shaq
1963-64 Wilt
2002-03 Duncan
1992-93 Hakeem

Peaks with an argument over 1991 Jordan...

2015-16 Steph
2022-23 Jokic
2003-04 KG
1986-87 Magic
1963-64 Bill

After this clear seperation from the rest of the pack (my 13 and 14th best peaks, 63-64 Oscar and 22-23 Embiid)

Reasonably similar list to what I had earlier.

Thoughts on '76 Dr J and '25 SGA? (Mikan if you wanted to go into it too, but no need)

I think there's 5-6 peaks that could be ranked higher. Maybe not all at the same time. I think even if you have MJ as #1 peak he's just hairs above a few guys below him and it would be mainly based on his consistent playoff scoring load/efficiency in that year(most likely 90 or 91). In 88 and 89 his teams got semi whipped and he wasn't that good in either series so I think it sort of disqualifies both.

Really depends on your criteria which almost everyone have it different

Personally I give really high Credit to Trancent Defender ( in BIG or BigWing role ) and elite 2 way ability
So Imo all these player have argument for better peak - Bill Duncan Hakeem Bron Kareem wilt ( Maybe KG ). Not a definitive at all

Top10alltime wrote:Peaks higher than peak 1991 Jordan..

2009-10 Lebron
1976-77 Kareem
1999-00 Shaq
1963-64 Wilt
2002-03 Duncan
1992-93 Hakeem

Peaks with an argument over 1991 Jordan...

2015-16 Steph
2022-23 Jokic
2003-04 KG
1986-87 Magic
1963-64 Bill

After this clear seperation from the rest of the pack (my 13 and 14th best peaks, 63-64 Oscar and 22-23 Embiid)

NIKOLA JOKIC in MJ conversation we are not serious right now. Jokic being an average defender is a chokehold for his position and role in the team especially when the team need to push heavy help to gap that void for jokic. Not get mismatch hunt or put in a real offensive tempo which he need to put his ability on defense which he not that great in.

MJ and Jokic offensive engine are close enough for me to give an edge for top 12 Guard defender compare to an average defender ( might be slightly negative due to position ).

eminence wrote:Player peaks I personally rank higher than MJ:
Russell
Duncan
LeBron

Players one could somewhat reasonably have above peak MJ (probably not all at once if consistent):
Mikan
Wilt
KAJ
ABA Dr J
Magic
Hakeem
Shaq
KG
Steph
Jokic
SGA

SGA? ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THE SAME SGA. The only thing SGA does better is Space the floor ( if we do relative to era they might be equal )and being a better team defender

What would be you criteria to push SGA above MJ

Elpolo_14 wrote:

NIKOLA JOKIC in MJ conversation we are not serious right now. Jokic being an average defender is a chokehold for his position and role in the team especially when the team need to push heavy help to gap that void for jokic. Not get mismatch hunt or put in a real offensive tempo which he need to put his ability on defense which he not that great in.

MJ and Jokic offensive engine are close enough for me to give an edge for top 12 Guard defender compare to an average defender ( might be slightly negative due to position ).

I think to dismiss the comparison as not serious in itself smacks a bit of bias. Jokic had an absolutely monster rs and ps run in 2023. It's perfectly fair to bring up the defensive gap but what other player combines volume scoring efficiency, passing and rebounding like Jokic? Oscar does sort of but when you factor in pace it diminishes his rebounding quite a bit. Magic and LeBron to some degree. The only other ding you could put on Jokic is his sort of low mpg but that's sort of common for all stars in the last 5-10 years.

Elpolo_14 wrote:

eminence wrote:Player peaks I personally rank higher than MJ:
Russell
Duncan
LeBron

Players one could somewhat reasonably have above peak MJ (probably not all at once if consistent):
Mikan
Wilt
KAJ
ABA Dr J
Magic
Hakeem
Shaq
KG
Steph
Jokic
SGA

SGA? ARE WE TALKING ABOUT THE SAME SGA. The only thing SGA does better is Space the floor ( if we do relative to era they might be equal )and being a better team defender

What would be you criteria to push SGA above MJ

I like impact metrics because my eye test isn't good enough to tell small differences in plenty of impact areas that add up. Example - who's a better team rebounder relative to era between MJ and SGA. Bluntly, I think anyone who says they can tell on an area like that is a bullshitter.

And '25 SGA put up quite arguably the most impressive plus-minus season of the plus/minus era. Before this year we'd seen two seasons where a player led the league by over +200 in full season plus-minus, '00 Shaq at +243 (+821 to Kobe at +578) and '17 Curry at +213 (+1260 to Dray +1047).

SGA just posted a +471 (+1084 to Lu Dort/Aaron Wiggins at +613).

He arguably combined to a higher level than we've seen since at least '94 1) Leading a dominant team and 2) Being so clearly their most important player. Regression stuff loves his work as well. Per nbarapm.com - #2 in 2 year RAPM (Jokic), #1 in Mamba, #2 in Darko (Jokic), #1 in LeBron, #1 in EPM. Most of those have priors that are probably still holding him back a little at this point. He's minimally a top 2 player in the best league that's ever existed.

Does he have work left to do to fully write his legacy, sure. But he's off to a great start.