Which REGULAR season was better? Luka 23'-24' or SGA 24'-25'?

[Rubios]

I'm not asking for "what season deserved the MVP the most", because other factors intervene (team record, point differential, voter's fatigue) and I am totally fine with Shai being the MVP even if Jokic just had arguably the best season ever.

Just going by individual performance within his team.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Uhhh is 23-24 Luka even better than 23-24 Shai?

[Rubios]

I don't want to interfere or condition the answers to my own question, so my opinion doesn't matter.

[Primedeion]

The guy who actually played defense and anchored the most dominant RS team in history

[jalengreen]

2025 Shai > 2024 Shai > 2024 Luka

[Mavrelous]

Uhhh is 23-24 Luka even better than 23-24 Shai?

Yes, easily better.
Better BPM, EPM, better peeformances, 7 wins less with a much lesser supporting cast (injuries, and pre deadline roster).
What argument is there for SGA over Luka in 24?

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Uhhh is 23-24 Luka even better than 23-24 Shai?

Yes, easily better.
Better BPM, EPM, better peeformances, 7 wins less with a much lesser supporting cast (injuries, and pre deadline roster).
What argument is there for SGA over Luka in 24?

pretty sure okc wasn't good when shai didn't play

[falcolombardi]

Both were pretty great but gotta give it to shai here for the outlier impact data, wins totals amd obviously a ring

[The-Power]

Uhhh is 23-24 Luka even better than 23-24 Shai?

Yes, easily better.
Better BPM, EPM, better peeformances, 7 wins less with a much lesser supporting cast (injuries, and pre deadline roster).
What argument is there for SGA over Luka in 24?

‘Easily’ feels very hyperbolic. Even in the two metrics you cited – EPM and BPM – the two players are fairly close. Add to that the fact that SGA played five more games and the difference is pretty marginal, and certainly not enough to claim that Luka is clearly ahead. And that's just focusing on those two metrics.

Then we look at on/off numbers, where SGA clears Luka (though not by a lot). OKC went 2-5 in games SGA missed, Dallas went 4-8 in the ones Luka missed. Doesn't mean all that much without more context and even then sample size is too small for meaningful conclusions – but the picture painted by those numbers is not that Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave (not saying this is your claim here, but it's definitely a sentiment I've seen in the past).

And while the difference in wins between their two teams ended up being ‘only’ 7 (still a fairly big number in the NBA, especially at the top of the table), SRS-based estimates put the difference in how well the teams performed overall at 12 wins.

I'm neither advocating for SGA or Luka here (for the '24 season, that is – I am pretty firm about '25 SGA > '24 Luka) but I feel very strongly about not calling either ‘easily’ better than the other.

[Mavrelous]

Uhhh is 23-24 Luka even better than 23-24 Shai?

Yes, easily better.
Better BPM, EPM, better peeformances, 7 wins less with a much lesser supporting cast (injuries, and pre deadline roster).
What argument is there for SGA over Luka in 24?

‘Easily’ feels very hyperbolic. Even in the two metrics you cited – EPM and BPM – the two players are fairly close. Add to that the fact that SGA played five more games and the difference is pretty marginal, and certainly not enough to claim that Luka is clearly ahead. And that's just focusing on those two metrics.

Then we look at on/off numbers, where SGA clears Luka (though not by a lot). OKC went 2-5 in games SGA missed, Dallas went 4-8 in the ones Luka missed. Doesn't mean all that much without more context and even then sample size is too small for meaningful conclusions – but the picture painted by those numbers is not that Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave (not saying this is your claim here, but it's definitely a sentiment I've seen in the past).

And while the difference in wins between their two teams ended up being ‘only’ 7 (still a fairly big number in the NBA, especially at the top of the table), SRS-based estimates put the difference in how well the teams performed overall at 12 wins.

I'm neither advocating for SGA or Luka here (for the '24 season, that is – I am pretty firm about '25 SGA > '24 Luka) but I feel very strongly about not calling either ‘easily’ better than the other.

Easily means there is a clear advantage, not that the advantage is big, I still stand by my comment, nowhere did I suggest "Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave", that is a hyperbole that was nowhere inferred, Luka's supporting cast was absolutely multiple tiers below OKC pre deadline acquisitions, at the deadline Mavs also received Kyrie who missed 20 games prior.
I also have SGA 25> Luka 24, and described it as the best guard season since 16 Curry, and better than Harden's prime with the Rockets.
On/Off is a terrible stat to use w/o context, which is what you're doing here.
To boost a player on/off, especially an offensive engine capable of carrying team offense, you give him the best baseline defense when he plays and a terrible backup, SGA has the best defensive supporting cast in history, and inadequate offensive options behind him, there is a reason SGA on/off shot higher in 25, OKC moved from Giddey led 120 ORTG offense, to JDub/Caruso led offense at 113, while baseline defense improved by adding Caruso and Hartenstein and Cason Wallace maturing another year, the result on defensive rating was very clear.
Luka himself had his on/off shoot higher in 23/24 because post deadline he had adequate defense around him for the 1st time of his career, and unlike SGA, Luka played most of his career backed up by Brunson and Kyrie.

[OhayoKD]

Yes, easily better.
Better BPM, EPM, better peeformances, 7 wins less with a much lesser supporting cast (injuries, and pre deadline roster).
What argument is there for SGA over Luka in 24?

‘Easily’ feels very hyperbolic. Even in the two metrics you cited – EPM and BPM – the two players are fairly close. Add to that the fact that SGA played five more games and the difference is pretty marginal, and certainly not enough to claim that Luka is clearly ahead. And that's just focusing on those two metrics.

Then we look at on/off numbers, where SGA clears Luka (though not by a lot). OKC went 2-5 in games SGA missed, Dallas went 4-8 in the ones Luka missed. Doesn't mean all that much without more context and even then sample size is too small for meaningful conclusions – but the picture painted by those numbers is not that Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave (not saying this is your claim here, but it's definitely a sentiment I've seen in the past).

And while the difference in wins between their two teams ended up being ‘only’ 7 (still a fairly big number in the NBA, especially at the top of the table), SRS-based estimates put the difference in how well the teams performed overall at 12 wins.

I'm neither advocating for SGA or Luka here (for the '24 season, that is – I am pretty firm about '25 SGA > '24 Luka) but I feel very strongly about not calling either ‘easily’ better than the other.

Easily means there is a clear advantage, not that the advantage is big, I still stand by my comment, nowhere did I suggest "Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave", that is a hyperbole that was nowhere inferred, Luka's supporting cast was absolutely multiple tiers below OKC pre deadline acquisitions, at the deadline Mavs also received Kyrie who missed 20 games prior.
I also have SGA 25> Luka 24, and described it as the best guard season since 16 Curry, and better than Harden's prime with the Rockets.
On/Off is a terrible stat to use w/o context, which is what you're doing here.
To boost a player on/off, especially an offensive engine capable of carrying team offense, you give him the best baseline defense when he plays and a terrible backup, SGA has the best defensive supporting cast in history, and inadequate offensive options behind him, there is a reason SGA on/off shot higher in 25, OKC moved from Giddey led 120 ORTG offense, to JDub/Caruso led offense at 113, while baseline defense improved by adding Caruso and Hartenstein and Cason Wallace maturing another year, the result on defensive rating was very clear.
Luka himself had his on/off shoot higher in 23/24 because post deadline he had adequate defense around him for the 1st time of his career, and unlike SGA, Luka played most of his career backed up by Brunson and Kyrie.

Thus far you have failed to raise any positive evidence for Luka over Shai here. So not really sure how you can assert Luka's advantage is clear. Casting doubt on other people's points is not a substitute for making your own.

[Mavrelous]

‘Easily’ feels very hyperbolic. Even in the two metrics you cited – EPM and BPM – the two players are fairly close. Add to that the fact that SGA played five more games and the difference is pretty marginal, and certainly not enough to claim that Luka is clearly ahead. And that's just focusing on those two metrics.

Then we look at on/off numbers, where SGA clears Luka (though not by a lot). OKC went 2-5 in games SGA missed, Dallas went 4-8 in the ones Luka missed. Doesn't mean all that much without more context and even then sample size is too small for meaningful conclusions – but the picture painted by those numbers is not that Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave (not saying this is your claim here, but it's definitely a sentiment I've seen in the past).

And while the difference in wins between their two teams ended up being ‘only’ 7 (still a fairly big number in the NBA, especially at the top of the table), SRS-based estimates put the difference in how well the teams performed overall at 12 wins.

I'm neither advocating for SGA or Luka here (for the '24 season, that is – I am pretty firm about '25 SGA > '24 Luka) but I feel very strongly about not calling either ‘easily’ better than the other.

Easily means there is a clear advantage, not that the advantage is big, I still stand by my comment, nowhere did I suggest "Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave", that is a hyperbole that was nowhere inferred, Luka's supporting cast was absolutely multiple tiers below OKC pre deadline acquisitions, at the deadline Mavs also received Kyrie who missed 20 games prior.
I also have SGA 25> Luka 24, and described it as the best guard season since 16 Curry, and better than Harden's prime with the Rockets.
On/Off is a terrible stat to use w/o context, which is what you're doing here.
To boost a player on/off, especially an offensive engine capable of carrying team offense, you give him the best baseline defense when he plays and a terrible backup, SGA has the best defensive supporting cast in history, and inadequate offensive options behind him, there is a reason SGA on/off shot higher in 25, OKC moved from Giddey led 120 ORTG offense, to JDub/Caruso led offense at 113, while baseline defense improved by adding Caruso and Hartenstein and Cason Wallace maturing another year, the result on defensive rating was very clear.
Luka himself had his on/off shoot higher in 23/24 because post deadline he had adequate defense around him for the 1st time of his career, and unlike SGA, Luka played most of his career backed up by Brunson and Kyrie.

Thus far you have failed to raise any positive evidence for Luka over Shai here. So not really sure how you can assert Luka's advantage is clear. Casting doubt on other people's points is not a substitute for making your own.

I did in the original post though, he had better cumulative stats (BPM) and impact based stat (EPM), The-Power coutered with on/off so I casted doubt on it.

[The-Power]

Easily means there is a clear advantage, not that the advantage is big

Well, I'd argue that if the advantage is not considerable, it cannot really be clear in the context of basketball, its complexity and conceptual as well as empirical limitations. Being slightly ahead in some selected metrics does not constitute an easy case as far as I'm concerned.

I still stand by my comment, nowhere did I suggest "Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave", that is a hyperbole that was nowhere inferred

but the picture painted by those numbers is not that Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave (not saying this is your claim here, but it's definitely a sentiment I've seen in the past).

I literally point out that I'm not saying this is your point. It was a comment aimed at the broader discourse after I actually posted the evidence concerning how the teams did with and without their respective superstars (which was in response to your comments on win totals difference and supporting casts).

On/Off is a terrible stat to use w/o context, which is what you're doing here.

I posted it as one data point to note. I never drew firm conclusions from it (unlike you, as you appear to feel very strongly about Luka's case primarily due to being ahead by relatively small margins in two other metrics that are far from the be-all and end-all).

Also, once again:

Then we look at on/off numbers, where SGA clears Luka (though not by a lot). OKC went 2-5 in games SGA missed, Dallas went 4-8 in the ones Luka missed. Doesn't mean all that much without more context and even then sample size is too small for meaningful conclusions

I explicitly note that more context is needed.

You are the one who claimed Luka's season was ‘easily’ better. I cast doubt on that statement without reaching any firm conclusions. I do feel like the onus is on you to make the case that Luka's season was so clearly better that it doesn't even warrant a longer discussion.

[OhayoKD]

Easily means there is a clear advantage, not that the advantage is big, I still stand by my comment, nowhere did I suggest "Luka dragged an utterly incapable team while SGA was riding on OKC's wave", that is a hyperbole that was nowhere inferred, Luka's supporting cast was absolutely multiple tiers below OKC pre deadline acquisitions, at the deadline Mavs also received Kyrie who missed 20 games prior.
I also have SGA 25> Luka 24, and described it as the best guard season since 16 Curry, and better than Harden's prime with the Rockets.
On/Off is a terrible stat to use w/o context, which is what you're doing here.
To boost a player on/off, especially an offensive engine capable of carrying team offense, you give him the best baseline defense when he plays and a terrible backup, SGA has the best defensive supporting cast in history, and inadequate offensive options behind him, there is a reason SGA on/off shot higher in 25, OKC moved from Giddey led 120 ORTG offense, to JDub/Caruso led offense at 113, while baseline defense improved by adding Caruso and Hartenstein and Cason Wallace maturing another year, the result on defensive rating was very clear.
Luka himself had his on/off shoot higher in 23/24 because post deadline he had adequate defense around him for the 1st time of his career, and unlike SGA, Luka played most of his career backed up by Brunson and Kyrie.

Thus far you have failed to raise any positive evidence for Luka over Shai here. So not really sure how you can assert Luka's advantage is clear. Casting doubt on other people's points is not a substitute for making your own.

I did in the original post though, he had better cumulative stats (BPM) and impact based stat (EPM), The-Power coutered with on/off so I casted doubt on it.

You're right you did. I thought the power brought those metrics up not you.

That said, a marginal gap in a formula output that can easily be adjusted to swing the other way isn't what I'd consider "evidence" in any meaningful sense

[The-Power]

I did in the original post though, he had better cumulative stats (BPM) and impact based stat (EPM), The-Power coutered with on/off so I casted doubt on it.

That's a very reductive way to interpret my post.

I also challenged your interpretation of the metrics you used, and I particularly challenged your idea Luka was ‘easily’ ahead (an interpretation not even your chosen metrics really support).

[Mavrelous]

Thus far you have failed to raise any positive evidence for Luka over Shai here. So not really sure how you can assert Luka's advantage is clear. Casting doubt on other people's points is not a substitute for making your own.

I did in the original post though, he had better cumulative stats (BPM) and impact based stat (EPM), The-Power coutered with on/off so I casted doubt on it.

You're right you did. I thought the power brought those metrics up not you.

That said, a marginal gap in a formula output that can easily be adjusted to swing the other way isn't what I'd consider "evidence" in any meaningful sense

Fair enough, let's do a detailed breakdown:

Luka's 23/24 season:
Statistical profile:
34/9/10 --> 62 TS%
Led the league in scoring
BPM 10
EPM 6.5

Team record 50-32
Pre deadline rotation:
Lively/Powell
Grant Williams/Maxi Kleber
Luka Doncic/Tim Hardaway Junior
Derrik Jones Junior/Josh Green
Kyrie Irving/Exum

Of these players, Kyrie missed 20 games, Lively missed 17 games, Kleber missed ~35 gmaes, Exum missed 20.
It was clearly a bad roster, that on top of it, had severe injuries, the record pre deadline 26-22.

Post deadline:
Kyrie rarely missed any games, Lively continued to miss, but depth allowed for more room.
Gafford/Lively
PJW/Kleber
Luka/THJ
DJJ/Josh Green
Kyrie/Hardy

Very good roster, strong baseline defense around Luka, record 24-10 --> 60 wins pace...

SGA 23/24 season:
Statistical profile:
30/6/6 --> 64 TS%
BPM 9.0
EPM 5.9

Rotation
Chet/JWill
JDub/KWill
Dort/Wiggins
SGA/Cason Wallace
Giddy/Joe

Very good roster, strong baseline defense around SGA, 57 wins pace...
Luka's post deadline roster had better size and rebounding, SGA had better spacing and perimeter defense, I'd say roster were on par with each other, small edge to the Mavs which resulted also in PO series win.

Both players are designated as guards, so the statistical adjustments in BPM should be similar.

[OhayoKD]

I did in the original post though, he had better cumulative stats (BPM) and impact based stat (EPM), The-Power coutered with on/off so I casted doubt on it.

You're right you did. I thought the power brought those metrics up not you.

That said, a marginal gap in a formula output that can easily be adjusted to swing the other way isn't what I'd consider "evidence" in any meaningful sense

Fair enough, let's do a detailed breakdown:

Luka's 23/24 season:
Statistical profile:
34/9/10 --> 62 TS%
Led the league in scoring
BPM 10
EPM 6.5

Team record 50-32
Pre deadline rotation:
Lively/Powell
Grant Williams/Maxi Kleber
Luka Doncic/Tim Hardaway Junior
Derrik Jones Junior/Josh Green
Kyrie Irving/Exum

Of these players, Kyrie missed 20 games, Lively missed 17 games, Kleber missed ~35 gmaes, Exum missed 20.
It was clearly a bad roster, that on top of it, had severe injuries, the record pre deadline 26-22.

Post deadline:
Kyrie rarely missed any games, Lively continued to miss, but depth allowed for more room.
Gafford/Lively
PJW/Kleber
Luka/THJ
DJJ/Josh Green
Kyrie/Hardy

Very good roster, strong baseline defense around Luka, record 24-10 --> 60 wins pace...

SGA 23/24 season:
Statistical profile:
30/6/6 --> 64 TS%
BPM 9.0
EPM 5.9

Rotation
Chet/JWill
JDub/KWill
Dort/Wiggins
SGA/Cason Wallace
Giddy/Joe

Very good roster, strong baseline defense around SGA, 57 wins pace...
Luka's post deadline roster had better size and rebounding, SGA had better spacing and perimeter defense, I'd say roster were on par with each other, small edge to the Mavs which resulted also in PO series win.

Both players are designated as guards, so the statistical adjustments in BPM should be similar.

Appreciate the effort but if you're assessing the supporting casts behind comparable team success as comparable, that flies strongly in the face of Luka clearing Shai.

Luka does look better offensively off this (and while you didn't really argue for it I'd say the assist disparity undersells the playmaking gap), but if two similar supporting casts performed similarly with their stars, why wouldn't we just default to defense equalizing things?

[Mavrelous]

Appreciate the effort but if you're assessing the supporting casts behind comparable team success as comparable, that flies strongly in the face of Luka clearing Shai.

Luka does look better offensively off this (and while you didn't really argue for it I'd say the assist disparity undersells the playmaking gap), but if two similar supporting casts performed similarly with their stars, why wouldn't we just default to defense equalizing things?

I'm not underselling the playmaking gap, I think it's the main differentiator between the 2 players and what makes Luka easily the better player in 23/24, I just did a poor job conveying it.

I don't think the supporting casts are similar offensively, it's a totally different concept of roster building.
Mavs are built on 2 offensive focal points, one of them fits off ball in Kyrie, while the rest of the supporting cast is much worse offensively compared to OKC.
I don't think SGA will extract similar level offense from a rotation of Lively/Gafford/PJ/DJJ, and I don't think he will contribute anymore to defense compared to Luka within that context, it is Luka's ability to be a historically great 3pt and lob shot generator for his teammates that allows such a defensively oriented supporting cast to function as a rotation for a contender.

[ball_takes23]