Shot chart validity - Karl Malone case study?

Smoothbutta · Post #1 » by **Smoothbutta** » Wed Jul 9, 2025 10:53 pm

Karl Malone according to BBR was shooting over 50% from 16+ feet 2-pointers in '97 and '98 and then dropped after that. How valid is that? Can we trust any shot chart data from these two seasons? nba.com seems to have similar data. What about MJ's pre-wizards?

and why does https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=karl+malone+shot+chart+between+1996-97+to+1997-98 have a very different data-set that shows more like 41% for the same seasons?

Post #2 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Jul 9, 2025 11:00 pm

Smoothbutta wrote:Karl Malone according to BBR was shooting over 50% from 16+ feet 2-pointers in '97 and '98 and then dropped after that. How valid is that? Can we trust any shot chart data from these two seasons? nba.com seems to have similar data. What about MJ's pre-wizards?

and why does https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=karl+malone+shot+chart+between+1996-97+to+1997-98 have a very different data-set that shows more like 41% for the same seasons?

It doesn't. There are two rings to that outer set.

So if you look at only the outer set, they have him at 50.1%.

Smoothbutta · Post #3 » by **Smoothbutta** » Wed Jul 9, 2025 11:04 pm

That's true maybe all the data does coincide

But does that essentially put Karl at his peak as the best long mid-range shooter ever even ahead of KD? Or is the data not reliable for those two seasons?

Post #4 » by **tsherkin** » Wed Jul 9, 2025 11:22 pm

Smoothbutta wrote:That's true maybe all the data does coincide

But does that essentially put Karl at his peak as the best long mid-range shooter ever even ahead of KD? Or is the data not reliable for those two seasons?

There is definitely some fuzz with the 97 and 98 seasons. But keep in mind you're talking about 5.3 shots per game, 77 - 78% assisted.

This isn't directly comparable to what Dirk did, or what KD was doing in a higher proportion of live-dribble scenarios.

Just AFTER Golden State, KD's shooting 54.2% from 3-10, 52.9% from 10-16 and 53.8% from 16-23 feet.

KD's taking 5.5 FGA/g from 10-16 feet and 2.7 from 17-23 feet in that time frame, for reference, and 47.8% assisted.

70sFan · Post #5 » by **70sFan** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 4:55 am

I don't know why, but the pre-2000s shooting data are less reliable than after from what I've heard.

jjgp111292 · Post #6 » by **jjgp111292** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 6:21 am

IIRC a lot of unrecorded shots in 97 got listed as dunk/layups, that's why the 0-3 ft % league wide is waaaaaay lower in 97 than it should be. It has '98 and Wizard MJ finishing 10% better than he did in '97 :lol: