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The two GOAT guard seasons... which one's better, and why?

Easily Lebron, who was just a much more impactful player on both ends than Jordan even in the tail end of his prime.

One_and_Done wrote:Easily Lebron, who was just a much more impactful player on both ends than Jordan even in the tail end of his prime.

Ok, but why?

Had never thought to compare these two, interesting idea

parsnips33 wrote:Had never thought to compare these two, interesting idea

So, who you got?

Top10alltime wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:Easily Lebron, who was just a much more impactful player on both ends than Jordan even in the tail end of his prime.

Ok, but why?

Just before I get into it, I’m going to note that of late I have gotten a lot of responses along the lines of “1 line of reasoning, is that it?” as if that is somehow inadequate. If I scroll through recent threads like Oscar v.s KD, or Bird v.s KG, etc, 1 line replies are common (especially for opening responses). If I posted “Jordan easily, the man is the GOAT”, then nobody would question my reply. It is only when you say something unpopular that a 1 line response suddenly becomes insufficient.

More specifically though, Lebron over his prime has always been a more impressive player than Jordan. He’s bigger, stronger, faster, has a more useful skillset, is a better defender, and has a bigger impact on the court generally thanks to the combination of his unstoppability and floor generalling. That’s because his player type has essentially no weaknesses, whereas Jordan’s meh 3pt shooting and inability to run an offense cause a few issues (especially in today’s game, or if you are trying to deploy an optimal offense). We saw the superiority of peak Lebron in 09/13/16/18, so the real question is how much you think Lebron has dropped off since then. I’d say in 2020 he’s still substantially the same player as 2018, and the reasons why peak Lebron is above peak Jordan were gone into in the recent peaks project, as well as the last top 100 project.

2020 Lebron was still putting up 35-11-14 per 100, on 577 TS%. Now in fairness to 91 Jordan, he was scoring more, with his 43pp100 on greater efficiency at 605 TS%, but only had 8.1rp100 and 7.5ap100. Then in the playoffs Lebron increased his production much more than Jordan (38-15-12 on 647 TS% for Lebron v.s 42-9-11 on 600 TS%). Lebron is also doing it against much stronger opponents, in a much tougher league. He coasted a little in the regular season, as he was getting older, but when it mattered in the playoffs Lebron was still better. Lebron is also the better and more impactful defender, and assists alone aren’t factoring in how much Lebron’s court vision is helping you get advantages on offense. Even if we just took the most simplistic analysis though; RS Lebron is scoring 35pp100 and 14ap100, to Jordan’s 43/7.5. Let’s imagine each assist leads to a bucket worth 2.2 points, which I think is generous to Jordan given the sorts of shots each were actually generating with their assists. That means Lebron is creating at least 66pp100, while Jordan is creating 59.5pp100. Of course, in actuality Lebron creates so many more points with hockey assists, etc, and this is a simplistic way of looking at things. Suffice to say, I don’t think Jordan’s scoring advantage means much.

Jordan’s player type and skillset just isn’t giving you the lift that Lebron does. I doubt the 91 Bulls make it out of the first round of the West in today’s playoffs, in fact I’m certain they wouldn’t have made it out of the 1st round in last years Western playoffs.

20 LeBron over 91 Jordan offensively is a tough sell.

Space and pace kind of inflates LeBron's numbers a bit and would make you believe he's as good or better than his Miami Heat self for instance.

I mean 2020 LeBron faced Robert Covington, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic as rim protection in the playoffs. All impact metrics point to Anthony Davis being better in this playoff run as well.

I don't think he was better than 2020 Harden this year, and 91 Jordan vs 20 Harden isn't much of a debate for me.

Great year, great player, but a tad overrated if were taking the production at face value. He is however easily the best 35 year old ever in this season though. In a not close way.

Lebron was 26.2 pp75 and bumped that up to 28.2 pp75 in the playoffs. His rTS% was only +1 but as we saw in the bubble, efficiencies skyrocket, and Lebron's efficiency jumped to +7.3 rTS% (bubble). MJ was 32, +7 in RS, and 31, +5.3 in the PS.

Lebron drove a +4.6 rOrtg, and certainly contributed to a -2.4 rDrtg. MJ drove a +6.3 rOrtg in the PS, and was a big contributor to the -6.9 rDrtg.

Lebron was a considerably better playmaker and passer than Jordan.

Overall, Lebron's season was a borderline ATG level season, while I think Jordan's season is in contention for GOAT season.

Top10alltime wrote:

parsnips33 wrote:Had never thought to compare these two, interesting idea

So, who you got?

I don't have a dog in the fight, just making a dumb joke

One_and_Done wrote:

parsnips33 wrote:Had never thought to compare these two, interesting idea

Just before I get into it, I’m going to note that of late I have gotten a lot of responses along the lines of “1 line of reasoning, is that it?” as if that is somehow inadequate. If I scroll through recent threads like Oscar v.s KD, or Bird v.s KG, etc, 1 line replies are common (especially for opening responses). If I posted “Jordan easily, the man is the GOAT”, then nobody would question my reply. It is only when you say something unpopular that a 1 line response suddenly becomes insufficient.

Yeah I don't see what the issue is with a one line reply, it's not like everybody has all day to spend on here

Think tensions are still a little high across the board after the whole Peaks Project hullaballoo

Box score data pretty strongly favors Jordan. Team results are also strongly in Jordan. 1991 Bulls are a top 15 team of all time while the 2020 Lakers are decidedly not. In addition LeBron was probably not even the best player in the league in 2020. The advanced stats we have in 2020 suggest that Harden+Giannis might have had a better season than LeBron.

Top10alltime wrote:The two GOAT guard seasons... which one's better, and why?

Bait?

This is easily 1991 Jordan. 2020 LeBron has a pretty good comparison with 1997 Jordan IMO, rather than peak Jordan.

Peak Jordan was definitely at a different level in terms of both box data and the impact data we have. The latter of which includes having a +17.12 on-off per 48 minutes in a 56-game regular season sample that is skewed towards bad games for the Bulls (with that actually being a lower on-off than the pretty large samples we have in the surrounding years for Jordan, so it was no fluke). And the Bulls’ rORTG with Jordan on the court in the 1991 playoffs was one of the very highest on record. There’s every indication 1991 Jordan was perhaps the best season ever, while 2020 LeBron was a genuinely great season but definitely not in the GOAT season discussion.

Special_Puppy wrote:Box score data pretty strongly favors Jordan. Team results are also strongly in Jordan. 1991 Bulls are a top 15 team of all time while the 2020 Lakers are decidedly not. In addition LeBron was probably not even the best player in the league in 2020. The advanced stats we have in 2020 suggest that Harden+Giannis might have had a better season than LeBron.

If you swapped 91 Jordan with 20 Lebron, do the Lakers even make it past the 2nd round that year? I doubt it.

One_and_Done wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:Box score data pretty strongly favors Jordan. Team results are also strongly in Jordan. 1991 Bulls are a top 15 team of all time while the 2020 Lakers are decidedly not. In addition LeBron was probably not even the best player in the league in 2020. The advanced stats we have in 2020 suggest that Harden+Giannis might have had a better season than LeBron.

If you swapped 91 Jordan with 20 Lebron, do the Lakers even make it past the 2nd round that year? I doubt it.

None of the Lakers playoff series were particularly close that year. You can afford some slippage and still win

Special_Puppy wrote:

One_and_Done wrote:

Special_Puppy wrote:Box score data pretty strongly favors Jordan. Team results are also strongly in Jordan. 1991 Bulls are a top 15 team of all time while the 2020 Lakers are decidedly not. In addition LeBron was probably not even the best player in the league in 2020. The advanced stats we have in 2020 suggest that Harden+Giannis might have had a better season than LeBron.

If you swapped 91 Jordan with 20 Lebron, do the Lakers even make it past the 2nd round that year? I doubt it.

None of the Lakers playoff series were particularly close that year. You can afford some slippage and still win

The Lakers aren't the #1 seed if they downgrade to Jordan, so the series aren't as easy either. I can't see them beating Denver/LAC with Jordan instead of LeBron.

ShotCreator wrote:Great year, great player, but a tad overrated if were taking the production at face value. He is however easily the best 35 year old ever in this season though. In a not close way.

What makes him much better in a not close way than 1998 Jordan?

Caneman786 wrote:

Top10alltime wrote:The two GOAT guard seasons... which one's better, and why?

Bait?

I hate casuals coming in and posting like this... they both are objectively the two GOAT guard seasons...

Top10alltime wrote:

Caneman786 wrote:

Top10alltime wrote:The two GOAT guard seasons... which one's better, and why?

Bait?

I hate casuals coming in and posting like this... they both are objectively the two GOAT guard seasons...

Bait

I must say I think this goes too far. While I understand what may motivate a Lebron vote I think we rely too much on something like With-or-Without or Adjusted On/Off if we insist he was even better at 35 than Jordan at his ultimate.

I also say this conversation disrespects greats like Magic Johnson who had himself great seasons leading great teams with less. Lebron was certainly incredible but I think to put even this version ahead may overrate him.