Welcome to the new iteration of the greatest peaks project with the new format! This time, we will rank the greatest 25 peaks of the last 25 seasons:
2000/01 - 2024/25.
Just to remind the rules:
1. Official ballots must include 4 different player seasons (name + year) with the (at least short) explanation for each of them. We will conclude the 2 best peaks in this thread based on the results of the voting, using Kemeny method.
2. The thread will be open for 7 days (up to August 31st), unless the longer period will be necessary. I am open to make it longer, but we have to make it through all the threads and all the eras.
3. The participation criteria are the following:
1. Account creation before August 2024. 2. At least 100 posts on RealGM forums.
Of course I recommend everyone who doesn't meet the criteria to contribute on these threads without voting, that would help us adding you in the later stages of the project.
Remember to pick the year for your choices and please, provide all the seasons worth the place IN ORDER - that would help us to conclude the year for a winning player.
The criteria are up to you, but you need to briefly explain it for the rest of the voting panel. It is good to take into account the data from surrounding seasons to evaluate players, but remember to pick a specific season.
1. I’m largely going with 2-way guys. The number of people that are top tier MVP candidates every year is small. The number of people that are top level DPOY candidates (or would have been in the past, before it became official) is also small. Where those two dovetail—that’s what I’m looking at in these initial choices. This will knock out a huge number of players that are dominant on one side of the ball and average-ish on the other. If you’re historically superlative in one area and above average in the other, you might sneak in. But probably not in the top 5 peaks in a 25 year period.
2. You gotta play. We live in a world of load management. But, to have a greatest level peak, you gotta play. I think about 60% of a team’s total minutes is a decent floor. That’s more or less 2300 minutes in a season. Figure 33 minutes a game for 70 games. If you miss 20% of your team's games and don't play 70% of the team's minutes when you are healthy ... well, it almost certainly isn't going to cut it.
3. You have to be a dominant playoff performer—and that means playing a lot of playoff games. You *have* to. Do you have to lead your team to the title? Sure helps! If you don’t, you need to go down swinging big. I’ll cut a guy 100-150 minutes of slack in the RS if he’s totally dominant in the postseason. But it’s not true the other way—you can’t have a great regular season and a pretty good playoffs and have your team bounced in the conference semis. This is one thing where I think this rectifies MVP voting, and it's something I really like.
4. I haven't mentioned much in terms of statistical analysis because, at the levels we're discussing here, I think they're largely splitting hairs. Every one of these players is great. Every one has a mind-blowing peak level. Choosing between them is an embarrassment of riches. I think quality analytics are superb about giving a better determination of player value and finding hidden gems. But, for me, none of these players will be questionable in that sense; it's just a matter of how great was he? This relates a little to the issues with some of the posters/voters on past projects. Nobody is trying to put anybody down here. Like I said, every player mentioned will be great. Rationales will be different, but deserving of consideration. It's a game. It's fun. I hope this project will be too.
It will be interesting to see how people choose the seasons ... because (spoiler alert) I've pretty much got the same top 4 that 70sfan listed. I'll post specifics later.
LeBron seems like the most obvious choice here, although others could be in consideration. What's difficult is picking a peak season. You could choose a Miami season or a season from both Cleveland stints for LeBron. I'm leaning 2013 over 2016, 2009, 2018, 2012. I think 2013 is the best mixture of defense, athleticism, leadership, efficiency, success, scoring etc. He was better in other years in some of these categories, but that's probably where everything came together.
Duncan 2003 and Shaq 2001 would probably the next two on my list. It's interesting because for Shaq 2000 and 2001 are the peak seasons, and one is in this group and one in the next (range until 1999-2000).
1. 09 LeBron(then 16 then 12). If people want to bring up the 2010 or 2011 playoffs as a ding on the 09 run they can but he wasn't the exact same person so it doesn't matter much to me. Rumors of injury and whatnot. 09 LeBron to me is peak size/athleticism for a perimeter player, great defense, super motor and then in the playoffs becomes unguardable and not only has his jumper falling but is avging 12ftapg with relentless pressure. 16 is my runner up due to the insane finals comeback and being the only guy to lead both teams in all stats in a playoff series. 2. 03 Duncan(02). Just near perfect two way play. During the playoff run his fta's go up from 8 a game to 10. His blocks go up from 3 to 3.5 and 5 in the finals. Then closes out the title with a 21/20/10/8 game 6. So he's my #2. 3. 23 Jokic(24). Not only a great/all time rs but his ppg could easily have been a lot higher had he not started giving up a bunch of shots after Murray and MPJ came back from their injuries to get them going after he'd carried the team for a couple months. Comparing him to 01 Shaq I don't think Shaq makes up on defense the gap on offense and rebounding isn't that much in his favor either. Jokic's last 3 playoff series he puts up 35/13/10, 28/15/12 & 30/14/7 and does it with 44% 3 pt shooting. That's just crazy. Might be an argument if it were 00 Shaq but not 01. 4. 01 Shaq(02). Obviously a great rs, leads the 15-1 playoff run, great finals and a + defender that year. His playoff run puts him over Steph for me. Shai is probably worthy of a mention though I don't like how much his 3 pt shooting dropped off or how Okc struggled compared to the Lakers. So it's Shaq for me.
-- 2024 Jokic is the other big candidate for me. Considering inclusion, will look at some 2001 Shaq tape I guess. -- Curry? 2017 I find hard to trust at face value for obvious reasons ("hard to trust at face value" = still a surefire top 6 peak). Of course 2016 would be here if he didn't get injured.
Gonna wait a bit for an actual post/vote.
This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.
With Jaivl on those 6 names being my first glance candidates (Shaq/Duncan/KG/LeBron/Curry/Jokic). First pass I think Jokic would be the most likely to fall out (just a couple more holes in his game imo). Maybe Shaq slips out too, I've generally thought of '00 as his peak and haven't spent as much time looking directly at '01.
LeBron/Duncan absolutely sure things, and KG very very close to. Likely comes down to Shaq/Curry/Jokic for 4th ballot spot (not sure they'll actually be 4th).
With just a step or two better PO performance SGA would've been in the discussion I think. As is I'm initially thinking about him after this group.
Any other names folks would want to bring up for top 4 vote consideration?
I made a list before the project started to get a rough idea of who is in and where everyone fits but now when it comes to actually submitting the vote, I find myself increasingly questioning the placing of almost everyone. LeBron is my GOAT peak so he is locked in at 1 and I have an order of Duncan>Shaq>Garnett for the early guys and Jokic>Curry for the later guys. Currently leaning towards LeBron>Jokic>Duncan>Curry when merging the two lists. I did have it LeBron>Duncan>Shaq>Garnett at one point but then I noticed three of them coming within a 4 year span out of 25 and while that kind of talent concentration is not impossible (see tennis big 3), it is something I am wary of in the back of my mind to check if I am over or under valuing any particular era.
eminence wrote:Any other names folks would want to bring up for top 4 vote consideration?
None for a full year but I would like to mention the half season we got from 2024 Embiid. 35/11/6 on 53/39/88 shooting while leading the league in opponent shots missed at the rim with a 35 win WOWY change is absolutely insane yet almost forgotten by everyone.
This is a preliminary list of names I'm considering for this project:
Spoiler:
Tim Duncan Shaquille O'Neal Kobe Bryant Kevin Garnett Tracy McGrady Steve Nash Dirk Nowitzki Lebron James Dwyane Wade Dwight Howard Chris Paul Kevin Durant Steph Curry James Harden Kawhi Leonard Anthony Davis Giannis Antetokounmpo Nikola Jokic Joel Embiid Jayson Tatum Luka Doncic Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Russell Westbrook Derrick Rose Allen Iverson Manu Ginobili Chauncey Billups Jimmy Butler Damian Lillard Vince Carter Paul George Jason Kidd Paul Pierce Ray Allen
Top 4 isn't too easy but I'm pretty much set on including 2001 Shaq, 2003 Duncan and some version of, probably 2009 Lebron. My fourth pick I still need to think a bit about. May well be 2023 Jokic but I'm strongly considering 2017 Steph, 2004 KG, and 2008 Kobe as well.
1. Lebron (13, 12, 16, 09, 10, 18, 14, and will add more years if need be)
For me #1 is easy. It’s Lebron. Any of the years I named above stand out as superior to the best peak that any other player reached, though I’ll go with 2013 as the peak of his athletic gifts and prime abilities. Casuals will baulk at that, by noting they almost lost to the Spurs in the finals that year, but I don’t care. Rings are a team accomplishment. Lebron as an individual was the GOAT that year. 38-11-10 per 100, 565 from the field, 406 from 3pt land, but more importantly than that he was a player with just no weaknesses at all. At the peak of his powers on defense, and an unsolvable problem on offense.
When you look at Lebron’s teams in his prime, it’s obvious the impact he had. Most glaringly, the absolutely mediocre Cavs support casts he dragged to 66 and 61 wins, which then sunk into the bottom of the lottery without him. The Cavs tried the first half of the 2011 season, before they threw in the towel and started tanking, and a team that was largely the same as Lebron’s 2010 support cast was a miserable 8-32 without him. That is an insane lift. In Miami he was even better if anything, despite a co-star who honestly wasn’t a great fit with him. Lebron’s pure athleticism (speed/hops) might have been a shade better in say 09, but his improved strength, defense and 3pt shooting more than made up for that in the later years of his prime.
2. Duncan (02, then 03)
Peak Duncan was unbelievable. The GOAT on defense, and almost every play was run through him on offense. 2003 is the year that will get all the votes, because he won a title, but honestly he was a shade better in 2002. The support cast he carried to 58 wins in 2002 was even worse than the 03 support cast, and he outplayed Shaq in the 02 playoffs despite having to guard him for much of the series (D.Rob was hurt, not that he did much at this stage of his career). I’ve discussed through the top 100 project, and the RPOY project, my views on Duncan. I’d have him 2/3 all time (he’s a coin flip with Kareem), and is an easy #2 selection for me here.
3. Shaq (01)
The most unstoppable offensive player of all-time, and Shaq’s peak season aside from 00. The only thing holding it back is his middling defense. I don’t think this should be a particularly controversial selection.
4. Kawhi (2017) I rethought it, and I have to put Kawhi over Curry due in part to his lack of weaknesses, though I am open to considering other names like Curry, Giannis, Jokic, KG, etc.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
1. Lebron James 2012-13. ('13 > '12 > '09) What is there to say that hasn't been said a million times already. Quite possibly the greatest single season of all time, by arguably the greatest player of all time. Lebron scored at 28.1 pp75 and a whopping +10.5% rTS% in the regular season. The team was elite offensively +6.5 rOrtg, and great defensively -2.2 rDrtg. The team was still elite in the playoffs, albeit not as good as the regular season. Similarly Lebron was not quite his regular season self, but still scored at 25.5 pp75 on +5% with great and impactful performances vs Pacers / Spurs.
2. Stephen Curry 2016-17 . ('17 > '16 > '15). Not his best regular season, but best overall campaign. 27.4 pp75, +7.1 rTS%. Team rOrtg of +6.8. Top 6 playmaker. Playoffs; 28.5, +10.6%. But all of that means nothing. Teams were leaving Kevin Durant wide open because they were worried about Stephen Curry (6.3% wide open shots in 2016 vs 12.2% wide open shots in 2017 playoffs for KD). That is the definition of gravity.
3. Nikola Jokic 2022-23 . ('23 > '24 > '25). Best playmaker and passer in the league. 26.7 pp75 +12 rTS% in RS, 29pp75 +5 rTS% in the playoffs. +2.8 rOrtg. -0.6 dRtg. Up to +6 rOrtg in PS along with a -2.7 dRtg. My only concerns for Jokic is the level of competition the Nuggets faced in the playoffs. Miami went on a Heater, and came crashing back to earth in the finals.
4. Tim Duncan 2002-03 . ('03 > '02 > '01). 23.7 pp75 on +4.5% rTS% in the RS. Team RS rOrtg was +2, and -3.9 dRtg. In the PS, Duncan increased his efficiency. The team wasn't great on offense (-1.4) as Duncan was tasked with being not only the defensive anchor, and go to scorer, but also the team's playmaking hub, but was historic on defense, with a -7.4 rDRtg in the playoffs. The Spurs went up against the 3 time defending champions, Lakers and a very elite offense in the Mavs, and were able to slow them both down on the back of Duncan's play.
5. Shaquille O'Neal 2000-01. ('01 > '02 > '04). Solid regular season despite the injuries the Lakers had. 28.5 pp75 on +5.6 rTS%. Insane FTA rate, though only converted them at 51%. Still, team offense was a +5.4 rOrtg, the defense was +1.8. But in the playoffs, the Lakers were historic. 15-1, with a +7.1 rOrtg, -6.6 rDRtg. Kings, Spurs and Blazers were 3 very good teams, and they were all obliterated by the 2001 Lakers. Outlier shooting or not, Shaq was the dominant force at the rim, creating open looks for his team.
One_and_Done wrote: 4. Hakeem (94, then 95 and 93) This strikes me as the next best peak season, though I am open to considering other names like Curry, Kawhi, Giannis, Jokic, etc.
LA Bird wrote:I made a list before the project started to get a rough idea of who is in and where everyone fits but now when it comes to actually submitting the vote, I find myself increasingly questioning the placing of almost everyone. LeBron is my GOAT peak so he is locked in at 1 and I have an order of Duncan>Shaq>Garnett for the early guys and Jokic>Curry for the later guys. Currently leaning towards LeBron>Jokic>Duncan>Curry when merging the two lists. I did have it LeBron>Duncan>Shaq>Garnett at one point but then I noticed three of them coming within a 4 year span out of 25 and while that kind of talent concentration is not impossible (see tennis big 3), it is something I am wary of in the back of my mind to check if I am over or under valuing any particular era.
eminence wrote:Any other names folks would want to bring up for top 4 vote consideration?
None for a full year but I would like to mention the half season we got from 2024 Embiid. 35/11/6 on 53/39/88 shooting while leading the league in opponent shots missed at the rim with a 35 win WOWY change is absolutely insane yet almost forgotten by everyone.
As you said, we have seen in in tennis, with Federer and Nadal setting the bar, and then Djokovic raising his game to surpass their grand slam totals. These 3 have covered basically 2005-2023 though, quite a long span of time.
KG and Duncan are 2 of the best defensive players of all time, and had to go up against one of the best offensive bigs in history in Shaq. Shaq spans from 94-2009, KG and Duncan from 98-2015. Players peak usually around certain ages, KG and Duncan were both more mobile and offensively inclined in their early years, while it took Shaq a few extra years to dominate even more. So the fact their peaks line up from 2001, 2003, 2004 and are potentially numbers 2-4, doesn't bother me all that much.
1. I agree that longevity matters. We can't have too much confidence that a player who had a 30 game stretch of amazing basketball that inflated stats for a 50 game season would have kept it up through the course of an entire season.
2. Their play should have, in some way, pushed the boundaries of what was possible during their era. In effect, the peak should be era defining. This is subjective, but I think it is a narrow list of candidates.
3. They should grade out relatively well on advance metrics. I will rely on BPM and VORP because they are easily available, crude proxies of impact, but they also are not nothing and I think over a long stretch (i.e., a 3 year peak) they are less noisy.
4. The "peak" needs to be more than one season. It can either include one incredible, era defining season, and some really good ones, or a lot that are amazing seasons (so, the difference between Duncan and Shaq). I will be looking at 5 year stretches, but some guys it could be argued have longer primes (e.g., LeBron 2008-2018), and some guys shorter primes ... while others are in the middle of theirs (I think there is a good chance Jokic is considered one of the 5 best players in NBA history when he retires).
5. Once I choose my top-4, 5 year stretches, I will choose the best season of each player from that stretch. For some players this might omit an arguably better season - so it comes down to how you identify a "peak." I will prioritize years with championships over years without, so some may be slightly different than what a player's best individual regular season is.
So, best 5-year streches
Spoiler:
1. Jokic, 2020-2025: 3 MVPs, 2 MVP runner ups, 1 championship, BPM from +12.1 to +13.7, 5 year VORP of 47.8 2. LeBron, 2008-2013: 4 MVPs, 2 championships, BPM from +8.1 to +13.2, 5 year VORP of 47.4 3. Curry, 2014-2019: 2 MVPs, 3 championships, BPM from +6.9 to +11.9, 5 year VORP of 32.4 4. Duncan, 2000-2005: 2 MVPs, 2 MVP runner ups, 2 championships, BPM from +4.7 to +8.5, 5 year VORP of 27.8
I am set on Jokic/LeBron/Curry as top 4 for this exercise, after that I think it is pretty philosophical. I do think, though, that Shaq's 2000-2001 playoffs are so dominant that I may bump him over Duncan for my final ranking.
Missed the cut
Spoiler:
Giannis, 2018-2023: 2 MVPs, 1 championship, BPM from +8.5 to +11.5, 5 year VORP of 32.4 Kobe, 2005-2010: 1 MVP, 1 MVP runner up, 2 championships, BPM from +4.1 to +7.6, 5 year VORP of 30.7 Dirk, 2006-2011: 1 MVP, 1 championship, BPM from +3.4 to +8.3, 5 year VORP of 26.8 Garnett, 2003-2008: 1 MVP, 1 championship, BPM from +5.4 to +10.2, 5 year VORP of 38.0 Durant, 2009-2014: 1 MVP, 3 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +4.9 to +10.2, 5 year VORP of 38.3 Shaq, 1999-2004: 1 MVP, 3 championships, BPM from +4.8 to +9.3, 5 year VORP of 31.8 Harden, 2014-2019: 1 MVP, 3 MVP runner ups, 0 championships, BPM from +6.6 to +11.0, 5 year VORP of 39.1
Top 4: 1. LeBron (11-12): championship, MVP, FMVP // 60.5% TS, 10.9 BPM I think most people will pick 08-09, and certainly from a statistical perspective it is a better season. The reality is, LeBron has been so good for so long that there are several seasons you could put into a list of the top 25 seasons of all time. I've favored his first championship because I think he was just as individually dominant as he was in 08-09, but obviously balanced that with two other incredible players. LeBron was also a top-5 player for about a 15 year stretch, so accounting for the level of individual dominance he showed with less help AND that long, long stretch of incredible basketball (and he is still unbelievable) and I think he has to be here.
2. Nikola Jokic (22-23): championship, MVP runner up, FMVP // 70.1% TS, 13.0 BPM Laying my cards on the table, I do think Jokic has had the best 5-year stretch I've ever seen, and I am not sure it is over. The only player to really touch him since I've watched basketball seriously (03-04 to the present) is LeBron. There are several seasons to choose from, but given the poor supporting cast relative to many other championships and the individual dominance he showed in both the regular season and the playoffs, I think this is the one to pick. I do have LeBron's incredible longevity and cultural impact giving him an edge, and I do think that longevity matters a lot when talking about best primes, best players, and how to view specific players. But Jokic may have the second longest stretch of dominant basketball in the 2000-2025 era.
3. Curry (15-16): runner-up, MVP // 66.9% TS, 11.9 BPM I really wanted to pick a championship year for Steph, but I think this season is the best we ever saw him and it was part of an era defining run. I think Curry, Nash, Dirk, Pop, Carlisle, and D'Antoni are primarily responsible for the stylistic changes we have seen in the NBA from 2000-2025.
4. Duncan (02-03): championship, MVP, FMVP // 56.4% TS, 7.9 BPM I went back and forth on Shaq and Duncan, but ultimately Duncan has more longevity and I do think his impact exceeds both box-score and a lot of +/- stats. His season is also coming from another era of basketball, but he remained an all-NBA caliber player even as the stylistic shift of 7-seconds to Curry took effect. It might not be popular (or perhaps even right, given his two-way impact) to have him below Steph, but Steph is so era defining that I have him 3rd.
Happy to see pushback against this, as I know this is a bit less technical than the PC board often is!
JazzMatt13 wrote:just because I think aliens probably have to do with JFK, doesn't mean my theory that Jazz will never get Wiggins, isn't true.
One_and_Done wrote: 4. Hakeem (94, then 95 and 93) This strikes me as the next best peak season, though I am open to considering other names like Curry, Kawhi, Giannis, Jokic, etc.
Wrong era.
My bad. I'll have to adjust.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Preliminarily, I tend to think Garnett will fall out of the top 4 for me. I’m not quite as high on him as others are here, so while I’m open to arguments from people, I think it’d be a tough road for him to make my ballot. Same I think for SGA. Just based on regular season, I think he’s got a good case to make the ballot, but his playoff performance wasn’t quite up to the level of some of these guys.
That leaves five players for four slots. I still am thinking about it, but I think Shaq will probably end up being the odd man out for me. A lot of that is that I don’t really think 2001 is his peak. He definitely had an amazing playoff run, but the regular season wasn’t as good from him. It’s sort of the flip side of 2025 SGA in that sense, with neither of them being historically dominant in both regular season and playoffs. If the time period started at 2000, then it might be hard to keep Shaq off the ballot (and I’m pretty sure Shaq will be on my first ballot in the 1977-2000 time period), but as it is I think I am pretty comfortable keeping 2001 Shaq off my top 4.
So I think for me that’ll leave 2023 Jokic, 2012 LeBron, 2017 Curry, and 2003 Duncan. Just an incredible set of years from each of those guys. I voted 2023 Jokic above all but 1991 Jordan in the now-ended peaks project, so I think he will probably be my #1 here. I’m pretty torn on how to rank the other three. I suspect Curry will end up being #4 for me. I do love the guy, but I think the thing is that 2017 wasn’t really his best regular season. If he’d had the 2017 playoffs performance in the same year as the 2016 regular season, then I think he’d be squarely in the discussion for #1 here. But he didn’t do that. And I think that’s probably enough to leave him at #4 in this time period in terms of single-year peaks. I am really not sure where I stand on 2012 LeBron vs. 2003 Duncan. I do think LeBron is a better player than Duncan, but 2003 was just such an impressive year from Duncan. I’m not as down on Duncan’s teammates that year as One_and_Done is, but I still think what Duncan did with that team was incredible. Come to think of it, I guess I’m not even entirely sure in the 2023 Jokic > 2003 Duncan view either. I’m *very* high on 2003 Duncan.
So yeah, while I’m pretty sure what players will be in my top 4, I think the order of my top 3 is pretty up in the air. Will be interested in seeing others’ views on this, especially if there’s anyone willing to really go to bat for Duncan. One thing I really like about this format is that we have a pretty long time for each thread, so there’s actually time to read what others have said and think about one’s ballot.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
They all have their superpowers. Curry's gravity, Jokic's passing from the C position, Duncan's elite defense, and Lebron's swiss army knife - jack of all trades.
I was watching 02 and 03 Duncan last night. I'm not sure I've ever seen a player get doubled so much so consistently. It feels like it's almost every possession.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
