1983 Sixers vs. 1984 Celtics

[Djoker]

In a vacuum, the Sixers are a slightly better team but I think the C's match up well with them. Moses always struggled vs. Boston.

What do y'all think?

[70sFan]

Yeah, for some reason Moses usually struggled against Parish. It would be a very interesting matchup, but I'd still go with a more dominant team.

[migya]

In a vacuum, the Sixers are a slightly better team but I think the C's match up well with them. Moses always struggled vs. Boston.

What do y'all think?

1980 v Bos - 25pts, 11reb, 1.8blk

1981 v Bos (Fin) - 22.3pts, 15.7reb, 2.2blk

1985 v Bos (ecf) - 18.2pts, 13.4reb, , 1.4blk


He was slightly below average all up, but didn't really struggle.



1983 76ers are among the best teams ever, case for top 5, definitely top 10. Think they're a little better than 1984 Celts.

[70sFan]

In a vacuum, the Sixers are a slightly better team but I think the C's match up well with them. Moses always struggled vs. Boston.

What do y'all think?

1980 v Bos - 25pts, 11reb, 1.8blk

1981 v Bos (Fin) - 22.3pts, 15.7reb, 2.2blk

1985 v Bos (ecf) - 18.2pts, 13.4reb, , 1.4blk


He was slightly below average all up, but didn't really struggle.



1983 76ers are among the best teams ever, case for top 5, definitely top 10. Think they're a little better than 1984 Celts.

Moses absolutely struggled in 1985 ECF, it was one of the reasons why the series wasn't competitive. I can see contextualising 1981 Finals relative inefficiency, as Moses didn't really play bad but 1985 is definitely a poor series for him.

[migya]

In a vacuum, the Sixers are a slightly better team but I think the C's match up well with them. Moses always struggled vs. Boston.

What do y'all think?

1980 v Bos - 25pts, 11reb, 1.8blk

1981 v Bos (Fin) - 22.3pts, 15.7reb, 2.2blk

1985 v Bos (ecf) - 18.2pts, 13.4reb, , 1.4blk


He was slightly below average all up, but didn't really struggle.



1983 76ers are among the best teams ever, case for top 5, definitely top 10. Think they're a little better than 1984 Celts.

Moses absolutely struggled in 1985 ECF, it was one of the reasons why the series wasn't competitive. I can see contextualising 1981 Finals relative inefficiency, as Moses didn't really play bad but 1985 is definitely a poor series for him.

The 76ers were outscored by 5pts a game, it was competitive, Celts won game 5 by 2. The focussed more on Moses to limit him but the others were able to play easier.

[Owly]

In a vacuum, the Sixers are a slightly better team but I think the C's match up well with them. Moses always struggled vs. Boston.

What do y'all think?

1980 v Bos - 25pts, 11reb, 1.8blk

1981 v Bos (Fin) - 22.3pts, 15.7reb, 2.2blk

1985 v Bos (ecf) - 18.2pts, 13.4reb, , 1.4blk


He was slightly below average all up, but didn't really struggle.



1983 76ers are among the best teams ever, case for top 5, definitely top 10. Think they're a little better than 1984 Celts.

Looking at both these posts.

Was curious if he did fall off.
Don't think slashlines are enough.

If the focus is on '85 (as later in this exchange) that's a rough efficiency series for him and he's doing less on the offensive glass than normal.

For 79-80 (the start of "the Celtics") to 85 (used above, maybe one cutoff for the high end prime ?... though up-down numbers make it hard to mark it) versus Boston ...

- the 85 series is an outlier low in fg%. He shoots 0.478442281 across the full sample - 0.405063291 in those games and .4875 in the rest
- the 85 series is an outlier low in offensive rebounds. 5.820512821 per game for the full sample - 3.4 in those games and 6.176470588 in the rest.
- these drive a lower AWS (Alternate Win Score - a game level box all-in one that's available, easily calculable, not so scoring-regardless-of-efficiency-centric as GameScore) 17.48 in those five games versus 25.32058824 in the rest.

If you trust AWS (and without a good eye for norms), at first glance he doesn't look like he's dropping off that much versus Boston. Ideally you'd account for what proportion of his games versus Boston he's playing in his most productive seasons etc ... And I'm being lazy and doing per game without even minutes accounted for. But just eyeballing it he's at 24.31538462 AWS per game 80-85 versus Boston (regular season and playoffs) and 26.38651805 AWS/game for 80-85 in general (regular season only). As I say I don't have an eye for this particular number but given level of competition (and that they're frontcourt-centric), it doesn't look like an awful dropoff.

Without any knowledge of whether Boston were doing anything special versus Moses in '85 (and ... if teams are going to him ... doubling etc does make sense given his relative lack of passing) ... I would be inclined to be, at least initially, slightly (these are only first-run - and boxscore only - calculations) skeptical to a fairly big claim like "always struggled" (emphasis added).


Fwiw, toward the main question, (regular season) SRS wise of the 11 years 80-90
Philly's 7.53 is 6th
Boston's 6.42 is 19th (and 5th among Boston years)
Not a huge actual numerical gap despite the ranking difference. Perhaps surprisingly low numbers though obviously this doesn't include the 76ers dominant playoff run.

[Djoker]

Moses' efficiency in both the 1981 and 1985 series against the Celtics was just awful. Mind you those rTS numbers are relative to the Celtics' D, not league average.

1980 ECSF: 59.5 %TS (+7.2 rTS)
1981 Finals: 46.8 %TS (-4.6 rTS)
1985 ECF: 47.8 %TS (-4.4 rTS)

[Owly]

Moses' efficiency in both the 1981 and 1985 series against the Celtics was just awful. Mind you those rTS numbers are relative to the Celtics' D, not league average.

1980 ECSF: 59.5 %TS (+7.2 rTS)
1981 Finals: 46.8 %TS (-4.6 rTS)
1985 ECF: 47.8 %TS (-4.4 rTS)

Mileage may vary etc but

by your own numbers if you're going to call circa -4.5 "awful" what does that make +7.2. Or put another way the raw average of those series numbers is -0.6. Obviously raw average isn't perfect with different size samples but just off what you're presenting ... whilst not great it's hardly damning.

'81 Is somewhat (though not entirely) mitigated by a strong series on the offensive glass. There is (more generally) also the the ever present question of whether some "misses" and "offensive rebounds" are actually or near enough neither so much as a self-pass to a hopefully better positioned future self.

I will say if the focus is entirely on the playoffs and ignoring the regular season there is more of an appearance of a drop. Of 39 games in this span the top 10 by AWS has 9 regular season games (the top one being 9th - his 14th April 1980 G4 versus Boston ... though 11 and 12 are also playoff games ... G2 and G3 in the '81 finals) whilst the AWS bottom 10 has 5 playoff games (including 4 of the bottom five: 1) '85 G5, 3) '80 G2, 4) '85 G1, 5) '81 G1).


I will add my customary ... free throw defense isn't real for TS% within a series notionally measuring defense matchups etc, adjust to something like season average or similar note. This is helping Moses in 1980 though on a smaller number of attempts so the impact isn't so big. I haven't checked the playoff split but versus Boston overall he was (on crude over-the-span averages) perhaps marginally lucky at the line shooting .762259466 overall in the span (RS) and .771604938 versus the Celtics.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think its close but if I have to flip a coin I'd pick the Sixers. It could really go either way though but the Sixers seemed like they were on something of a mission in 83. 84 being Bird's best playoff run is the one thing that might swing it to them.

[Djoker]

Moses' efficiency in both the 1981 and 1985 series against the Celtics was just awful. Mind you those rTS numbers are relative to the Celtics' D, not league average.

1980 ECSF: 59.5 %TS (+7.2 rTS)
1981 Finals: 46.8 %TS (-4.6 rTS)
1985 ECF: 47.8 %TS (-4.4 rTS)

Mileage may vary etc but

by your own numbers if you're going to call circa -4.5 "awful" what does that make +7.2. Or put another way the raw average of those series numbers is -0.6. Obviously raw average isn't perfect with different size samples but just off what you're presenting ... whilst not great it's hardly damning.

'81 Is somewhat (though not entirely) mitigated by a strong series on the offensive glass. There is (more generally) also the the ever present question of whether some "misses" and "offensive rebounds" are actually or near enough neither so much as a self-pass to a hopefully better positioned future self.

I will say if the focus is entirely on the playoffs and ignoring the regular season there is more of an appearance of a drop. Of 39 games in this span the top 10 by AWS has 9 regular season games (the top one being 9th - his 14th April 1980 G4 versus Boston ... though 11 and 12 are also playoff games ... G2 and G3 in the '81 finals) whilst the AWS bottom 10 has 5 playoff games (including 4 of the bottom five: 1) '85 G5, 3) '80 G2, 4) '85 G1, 5) '81 G1).


I will add my customary ... free throw defense isn't real for TS% within a series notionally measuring defense matchups etc, adjust to something like season average or similar note. This is helping Moses in 1980 though on a smaller number of attempts so the impact isn't so big. I haven't checked the playoff split but versus Boston overall he was (on crude over-the-span averages) perhaps marginally lucky at the line shooting .762259466 overall in the span (RS) and .771604938 versus the Celtics.

Taking the average is obscuring the fact that he had one great scoring series and two really bad ones.

Moses was typically a +4 or +5 type player so below -4 is just awful.

[70sFan]

Moses' efficiency in both the 1981 and 1985 series against the Celtics was just awful. Mind you those rTS numbers are relative to the Celtics' D, not league average.

1980 ECSF: 59.5 %TS (+7.2 rTS)
1981 Finals: 46.8 %TS (-4.6 rTS)
1985 ECF: 47.8 %TS (-4.4 rTS)

It is worth mentioning that Moses averaged 7.2 off. rpg in 1981 finals (putbacks don't have a negative value on per possession scoring, even when missed) and some of them were from his own missed attempts. If we adjust that, his efficiency would look slightly better:

G1: 4/17 FG, 2/6 from putbacks, 1/2 from own shots putbacks
G2: 10/24 FG, 2/4 from putbacks, 1/1 from own shots putbacks
G3: 7/13 FG, 2/3 from putbacks, 0/1 from own shots putbacks
G4: 11/30 FG, 3/8 from putbacks, 0/2 from own shots putbacks
G5: 7/14 FG, 2/6 from putbacks, 1/1 from own shots putbacks
G6: 9/21 FG, 4/9 from putbacks, 2/2 from own shots putbacks

Moses did the so-called "Z-bound" 9 times in this series and I don't even count fouls drawn after own shot putbacks (I am too lazy right now to do that). That changes his FG% from 40.3% to 43.6% and his TS% from 46.8% to 50.0% and again, I don't count fouls after rebounds. It's not an elite efficiency still, but it changes the perspective a little bit.

Another important thing people forget is that Moses basically took away Parish for two games (played only 14 min and 13 min in G2 and G3) due to his constant pressure. The Rockets actually won one of these games.

Moses had also surprisingly very good turnover economy in that series and it's funny because he's known for his absolutely horrible TOV numbers, but he always looked better in that regard in the playoffs.

I'd also add that despite the poor shooting numbers, Moses was actually the guy with 2nd highest FG% for the Rockets among rotation players. The Rockets really struggled in that series as a whole and Moses did everything he could to make them competitive. It's not an all-time great performance or anything like that, but I certainly wouldn't put it on par with 1985 underperformance.

[homecourtloss]

The obvious answer is the Sixers, but a team like the 1984 Celtics is too good just to be beaten down easily . I really like the Boston Strangler, i.e., Toney, in this series, and I don't like the defensive personnel the Celtics have to stop him. Sixers in 6 or maybe 7 in the majority of simulations I think.

[lessthanjake]

For what it’s worth, in the 1983 regular season, Moses Malone played the Celtics five times, and he averaged 27 PPG on 59.4% TS% (compared to a 52.0% TS% the Celtics gave up that year, and a 57.8% TS% that Moses himself put up that season), with 15.8 RPG as well. So he actually did very well against them that year, though obviously it was just regular season games and the 1984 Celtics are not the same as the 1983 Celtics.

[Warspite]

The obvious answer is the Sixers, but a team like the 1984 Celtics is too good just to be beaten down easily . I really like the Boston Strangler, i.e., Toney, in this series, and I don't like the defensive personnel the Celtics have to stop him. Sixers in 6 or maybe 7 in the majority of simulations I think.

100% correct

Toney is the key. Boston has no counter to him and its really hard for Bird to overcome both Toney and DrJ while being guarded by Bobby Jones.