The LeBron James and Luka Doncic - 25-26 Thread

[TroubleS0me]

2024-25 Record: 50-32 (3rd in West, lost in First Round)

The new-look Lakers will have a full training camp and regular season with Dončić and LeBron James playing side by side — along with a few new pieces added in the offseason. That group will have a chance to develop their on-court chemistry and elevate each other as a whole. With James set to enter an unprecedented 23rd season, maximizing this superstar window will be key for the Lakers this season.

Offseason

Re-signing: Luka Dončić (extension), Jaxson Hayes, LeBron James (player option exercised)
Additions: Deandre Ayton (free agent), Jake LaRavia (free agent), Marcus Smart (free agent)
Draft: Adou Thiero (36th pick, acquired via trade)
Departures: Dorian Finney-Smith (free agent), Jordan Goodwin (waived), Trey Jemison III (waived), Alex Len (free agent), Shake Milton (waived)
Unsigned Free Agents: Markieff Morris

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[Caneman786]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

[TroubleS0me]

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[Mos_Heat]

18th-22nd on defense and hopefully top 5 on offense. 48-53 wins?

[Jaivl]

18th-22nd on defense and hopefully top 5 on offense. 48-53 wins?

18th feels very generous without Finney-Smith, Davis, and another year on LeBron's legs. Not seeing it.

[Mavrelous]

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[EmpireFalls]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

[eminence]

Losing DFS hurts, he always fit great with Luka. I do like the additions - all reasonable upside gambles that could hit.

Overall not expecting a lot, Bron is (understandably) in decline, Reaves is a pretty questionable fit as the 3rd guy with Luka/Bron, the big men are not inspiring, and Redick worries me a bit as a coach.

Assuming Luka is healthy still a decent squad, but don't see them fighting for homecourt.

[Ian Scuffling]

Has Luka learned how to play defense, yet? If not. Another dull year. That back court is an absolute sieve. Lebron will drop again offensively and we've already seen how he "load manages" on defense during the regular season "meh" games.

[Caneman786]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

Wishful thinking. Pablo Torre's media machine got you all cooked, cuz it's a nothing burger. Doesn't matter much though, cuz the Clippers don't even need Kawhi to be better than the Lakers after these offseason additions.

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

Why the Grizzlies and Clippers are better

They're a level below Memphis and LAC even with the worst case scenario.

Ja Morant only played 50 games and Memphis still got an SRS of +4.79 and 48 wins. They were either the 2 or 3 seed for the entire months of January and February. Their floor is pretty high.

Kawhi only played 37 games and the team recorded an SRS of +4.84 and 50 wins. Another team with a high floor, but instead they have a crazy ceiling. Now the team improved at every spot (only bolstering their floor), and they're one of the deepest teams in the league. I'd be surprised if they didn't hit 55 wins. I'm expecting 65.

To top it off, you all underestimate how bad the Lakers are. Last season they had an SRS of +1.45. I'd be surprised to see an SRS over +3.5 or so (which would be a range to get close to these top teams). There's a better chance that it's negative than being at that level. The team is full of one-dimensional players, and they lost their 3-and-D glue guy who led the team in plus-minus last season.

Lakers vs. the West

So where do the Lakers stand in the West?

For a full analysis, the way I see it, the Lakers are largely locked out of being a top 6 seed.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Los Angeles Clippers
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves

7 teams that they can't get past without crazy luck. And you added the Dallas Mavericks so that's the 8th team.

I'd argue for a 9th team in the New Orleans Pelicans. When that Pelicans team starts to click, that adds a 9th team. The core four of Zion, Dejounte, Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones played an average of 33.5 games last season. And they added a real NBA center in Yves Missi to that. They're my sleepers to be a playoffs team, and we know how good Zion is.

And they've proven they can be good in the past, too. Just the season before last year's disaster, they had 49 wins and a +4.46 SRS.

There's one spot left for the Lakers to sneak into the play-in, but they have to compete with:

Then, they're competing with the Portland Trail Blazers (crazy defense), the San Antonio Spurs (we all know their potential), and the Sacramento Kings (which had an SRS really similar to the Lakers, just way worse luck). They need all three of these teams to be worse than them. It's not gonna be easy is all I'm gonna say.

The only teams that the Lakers are definitively better than in the whole Western conference are the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns.

Summary

Overall,I don't think it's reasonable to say that they're more likely to be in that top 6 than they are to be in the bottom 5. And even if they get in the play-in, they could lose there, and then miss the playoffs.

There's a lot of hungry teams that could take them out (and may even be favored), especially if they have to play two games by being the 9 seed or 10 seed.

My prediction for them would likely be around that 10 seed spot, with 8 to 11 being in their range of possibilities. If I'm just saying pure rankings, though, I'd put them at 11, but when saying the final seed prediction, I'm adjusting towards the middle, since it's likely one or two of the teams ahead of them collapses in some crazy way. It happens every year, and there's so many teams ahead of the Lakers that the chance is pretty high.

Even with that, though, the 8 seed is the highest I'd go for them.

[parsnips33]

65 wins for the Clippers??

[Caneman786]

65 wins for the Clippers??

Why not?

[parsnips33]

65 wins for the Clippers??

Why not?

I guess they have a lot of depth now, but I just don't see the urgency from them to run up wins in the regular season, the focus will be on keeping everybody healthy and in-shape for the playoffs. And I don't think they have the talent to just roll into 60 win.

Good coaching helps I suppose

[Caneman786]

65 wins for the Clippers??

Why not?

I guess they have a lot of depth now, but I just don't see the urgency from them to run up wins in the regular season, the focus will be on keeping everybody healthy and in-shape for the playoffs. And I don't think they have the talent to just roll into 60 win.

Good coaching helps I suppose

Fair enough. You make a good point about them preserving what they need for the playoffs, and due to that I may end up revising my prediction down a little later to 62–63 or so wins. The team definitely has a high floor though. There's a Clippers thread if you want to talk more about it:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2475760

[jalengreen]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

What makes them a tier below Golden State?

If the LeBron cliff drop ever hits then yeah they're cooked, but as is they probably have two players better than anybody on the Warriors

[Caneman786]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

What makes them a tier below Golden State?

The Golden State Warriors after Jimmy Butler III was incorporated into the lineup
First game played on February 8, 2025:

32 games played: 23 wins, 9 losses (59 win pace)

117.8 Offensive Rating (#9 in the league in that span)
109.3 Defensive Rating (#1 in the league in that span)

+8.5 Net Rating (#3 in the league in that span)

Jimmy Butler gets hurt in the first round.

They still win in 7 against the Houston Rockets: +4.97 SRS. But the margin of victory is down to 0. The fight is tough without Jimmy.

Stephen Curry gets hurt in the second round, and Jimmy comes back but he's a shell of his former self.

They lose in 5 to the Minnesota Timberwolves (which had a +5.15 SRS in the regular season). Margin of victory -7.2 points per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers after Luka Doncic was incorporated into the lineup
First game played on February 10, 2025:

32 games played: 19 wins, 13 losses (49 win pace).

Not bad, right? There's an ugly underbelly though:

115.9 Offensive Rating (#14 in the league in that span)
113.8 Defensive Rating (#17 in the league in that span)

+2.1 Net Rating (#13 in the league in that span)

Then, the fully-healthy Los Angeles Lakers lost in 5 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the margin of victory? -7.0 points per game.

Same margin of victory, but one team was missing their two best players (one on the court, one in spirit). One team wasn't.

[Caneman786]

Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs

Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

If the LeBron cliff drop ever hits then yeah they're cooked, but as is they probably have two players better than anybody on the Warriors

Unfortunately for the Lakers, this happened already. Last season actual EPM.

[jalengreen]

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

If the LeBron cliff drop ever hits then yeah they're cooked, but as is they probably have two players better than anybody on the Warriors

Unfortunately for the Lakers, this happened already. Last season actual EPM.

Yeah definitely don't think this is an accurate representation of each player's level at this point

I don't think there's a single Warriors fan that would genuinely prefer having Jimmy Butler on their basketball team next season over LeBron James except for non-basketball reasons

[jalengreen]

Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and potential Clippers disaster potential).

However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.

What makes them a tier below Golden State?

The Golden State Warriors after Jimmy Butler III was incorporated into the lineup
First game played on February 8, 2025:

32 games played: 23 wins, 9 losses (59 win pace)

117.8 Offensive Rating (#9 in the league in that span)
109.3 Defensive Rating (#1 in the league in that span)

+8.5 Net Rating (#3 in the league in that span)

Jimmy Butler gets hurt in the first round.

They still win in 7 against the Houston Rockets: +4.97 SRS. But the margin of victory is down to 0. The fight is tough without Jimmy.

Stephen Curry gets hurt in the second round, and Jimmy comes back but he's a shell of his former self.

They lose in 5 to the Minnesota Timberwolves (which had a +5.15 SRS in the regular season). Margin of victory -7.2 points per game.

The Los Angeles Lakers after Luka Doncic was incorporated into the lineup
First game played on February 10, 2025:

32 games played: 19 wins, 13 losses (49 win pace).

Not bad, right? There's an ugly underbelly though:

115.9 Offensive Rating (#14 in the league in that span)
113.8 Defensive Rating (#17 in the league in that span)

+2.1 Net Rating (#13 in the league in that span)

Then, the fully-healthy Los Angeles Lakers lost in 5 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the margin of victory? -7.0 points per game.

Same margin of victory, but one team was missing their two best players (one on the court, one in spirit). One team wasn't.

I agree that the 2024-25 Lakers were not a very good team

[Caneman786]

If the LeBron cliff drop ever hits then yeah they're cooked, but as is they probably have two players better than anybody on the Warriors

...

Yeah definitely don't think this is an accurate representation of each player's level at this point

I don't think there's a single Warriors fan that would genuinely prefer having Jimmy Butler on their basketball team next season over LeBron James except for non-basketball reasons

Those Warriors fans are casuals then. It's the other way around.

The only reason someone could take LeBron James over Jimmy Butler III in 2025 is due to non-basketball reasons such as jersey sales or publicity.

LeBron's not better than Jimmy anymore.

I agree that the 2024-25 Lakers were not a very good team

Would you agree that the 2024–25 Warriors were a tier above them (after the Jimmy trade)?