EmpireFalls wrote:Caneman786 wrote:Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs
Luka's gonna have to go nuclear.
Nah there’s no chance they aren’t at least a play-in team for a few different reasons (mainly Memphis’ injuries and
potential Clippers disaster potential).
Wishful thinking. Pablo Torre's media machine got you all cooked, cuz it's a nothing burger. Doesn't matter much though, cuz the Clippers don't even need Kawhi to be better than the Lakers after these offseason additions.
EmpireFalls wrote:Caneman786 wrote:Sleeper pick to miss the playoffs
However they’re clearly a tier below OKC, Denver, Houston, Minnesota, Golden State, and Dallas.
Why the Grizzlies and Clippers are betterThey're a level below Memphis and LAC even with the worst case scenario.
Ja Morant only played 50 games and Memphis still got an SRS of +4.79 and 48 wins. They were either the 2 or 3 seed for the entire months of January and February. Their floor is pretty high.
Kawhi only played 37 games and the team recorded an SRS of +4.84 and 50 wins. Another team with a high floor, but instead they have a crazy ceiling. Now the team improved at every spot (only bolstering their floor), and they're one of the deepest teams in the league. I'd be surprised if they didn't hit 55 wins. I'm expecting 65.
To top it off, you all underestimate how bad the Lakers are. Last season they had an SRS of +1.45. I'd be surprised to see an SRS over +3.5 or so (which would be a range to get close to these top teams). There's a better chance that it's negative than being at that level. The team is full of one-dimensional players, and they lost their 3-and-D glue guy who led the team in plus-minus last season.
Lakers vs. the WestSo where do the Lakers stand in the West?
For a full analysis, the way I see it, the Lakers are largely locked out of being a top 6 seed.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Los Angeles Clippers
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
Minnesota Timberwolves
7 teams that they can't get past without crazy luck. And you added the Dallas Mavericks so that's the 8th team.
I'd argue for a 9th team in the New Orleans Pelicans. When that Pelicans team starts to click, that adds a 9th team. The core four of Zion, Dejounte, Trey Murphy III, and Herb Jones played an average of 33.5 games last season. And they added a real NBA center in Yves Missi to that. They're my sleepers to be a playoffs team, and we know how good Zion is.
And they've proven they can be good in the past, too. Just the season before last year's disaster, they had 49 wins and a +4.46 SRS.
There's one spot left for the Lakers to sneak into the play-in, but they have to compete with:
Then, they're competing with the Portland Trail Blazers (crazy defense), the San Antonio Spurs (we all know their potential), and the Sacramento Kings (which had an SRS really similar to the Lakers, just way worse luck). They need all three of these teams to be worse than them. It's not gonna be easy is all I'm gonna say.
The only teams that the Lakers are definitively better than in the whole Western conference are the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns.
SummaryOverall,I don't think it's reasonable to say that they're more likely to be in that top 6 than they are to be in the bottom 5. And even if they get in the play-in, they could lose there, and then miss the playoffs.
There's a lot of hungry teams that could take them out (and may even be favored), especially if they have to play two games by being the 9 seed or 10 seed.
My prediction for them would likely be around that 10 seed spot, with 8 to 11 being in their range of possibilities. If I'm just saying pure rankings, though, I'd put them at 11, but when saying the final seed prediction, I'm adjusting towards the middle, since it's likely one or two of the teams ahead of them collapses in some crazy way. It happens every year, and there's so many teams ahead of the Lakers that the chance is pretty high.
Even with that, though, the 8 seed is the highest I'd go for them.
